Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Synthesis, structure and electrochemical properties of complexes with a (μ-oxo)bis-(μ-carboxylato)diruthenium(III) core

Reaction of [Ru2O(O2CR)2(MeCN)4(PPh3)2](ClO4)2 (1) with 1,2-diaminoethane (em) in MeOH---H2O yielded a mixture of products, from which a purple diamagnetic and 1:2 electrolytic diruthenium(III) complex, [Ru2O(O2CR)2(en)2(PPh3)2](ClO4)2 (2), was isolated along with a trace by-product of [Ru2O(O2CR)2(en)2(PPh3)2](ClO4)(MeCONH) (3) (R = C6H4-p-X : X = H, a; OMe, b; Me, c). Complex 3b has been characterized by X-ray diffraction analysis. The structure shows the presence of a (Ru2(?-O)(?-O2CR)22+)_core, with the metal centre bonded to an unidentate PPh3 and a bidentate chelating en terminal ligand. The Ru�Ru distance and the Ru�O�Ru angle in the core are 3.255(3) Å and 119.1(4)°. The amidate anion, formed presumably by nucleophilic attack of OH? on the MeCN ligand in complex 1, remains uncoordinated to the metal. In MeCN/0.1 M [NBun4]ClO4 complex 2 exhibits a nearly reversible Ru2III,III?Ru2III,IV couple near 0.9 V and an irreversible Ru2III,III?Ru2III,II process at ?0.6 V (vs S.C.E.). The mechanistic aspects of the substitution and nucleophilic reactions in the formation of complexes 2 and 3 are discussed. References

Nanotubes of the disulfides of groups 4 and 5 metals

The layered chalcogenides, having structures analogous to graphite, are known to be unstable toward bending and show high propensity to form curved structures, thus eliminating dangling bonds at the edges. Since the discovery of fullerene and nanotube structures of WS2 and MoS2 by Tenne et al. [1-3], there have been attempts to prepare and characterize nanotubes of other layered dichalcogenides with structures analogous to MoS2. Nanotubes of MoS2 and WS2 were prepared by Tenne et al. by reducing the corresponding oxides to the suboxides followed by heating in an atmosphere of forming gas (5 % H-2 + 95 % N-2) and H2S at 700-900 degreesC [1-3]. Alternative methods of synthesis of MoS2 and WS2 nanotubes have since been proposed by employing the decomposition of the ammonium thiometallates or the corresponding trisulfide precursors. This alternative procedure was based on the observation that the trisulfide seems to be formed as an intermediate in the synthesis of the MoS2 and WS2 nanotubes [4]. Accordingly, the decomposition of the trisulfides of MoS2 and W in a reducing atmosphere directly yielded nanotubes of the disulfides MoS2 and WS2 [5]. In this article, we describe the synthesis, structure, and characterization of a few novel nanotubes of the disulfides of groups 4 and 5 metals. These include nanotubes of NbS2, TaS2, ZrS2, and HfS2. The study enlarges the scope of the inorganic nanotubes significantly and promises other interesting possibilities, including the synthesis of the diselenide nanotubes of these metals.

Digital Deadbeat Control Tuning for dc-dc Converters Using Error Correlation

This letter proposes a simple tuning algorithm for digital deadbeat control based on error correlation. By injecting a square-wave reference input and calculating the correlation of the control error, a gain correction for deadbeat control is obtained. The proposed solution is simple, it requires a short tuning time, and it is suitable for different DC-DC converter topologies. Simulation and experimental results on synchronous buck converters confirm the properties of the proposed tuning algorithm.

Metabolites of PPI-2458, a selective, irreversible inhibitor of methionine aminopeptidase-2: structure determination and In vivo activity

The natural product fumagillin exhibits potent antiproliferative and antiangiogenic properties. The semisynthetic analog PPI-2458, (3R,4S,5S,6R)-5-methoxy-4-(2R,3R)-2-methyl-3-(3-methylbut-2-enyl) oxiran-2-yl]-1-oxaspiro2.5]octan-6-yl] N-(2R)-1-amino-3-methyl-1-oxobutan-2-yl]carbamate, demonstrates rapid inactivation of its molecular target, methionine aminopeptidase-2 (MetAP2), and good efficacy in several rodent models of cancer and inflammation with oral dosing despite low apparent oral bioavailability. To probe the basis of its in vivo efficacy, the metabolism of PPI-2458 was studied in detail. Reaction phenotyping identified CYP3A4/5 as the major source of metabolism in humans. Six metabolites were isolated from liver microsomes and characterized by mass spectrometry and nuclear resonance spectroscopy, and their structures were confirmed by chemical synthesis. The synthetic metabolites showed correlated inhibition of MetAP2 enzymatic activity and vascular endothelial cell growth. In an ex vivo experiment, MetAP2 inhibition in white blood cells, thymus, and lymph nodes in rats after single dosing with PPI-2458 and the isolated metabolites was found to correlate with the in vitro activity of the individual species. In a phase 1 clinical study, PPI-2458 was administered to patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. At 15 mg administered orally every other day, MetAP2 in whole blood was 80% inactivated for up to 48 hours, although the exposure of the parent compound was only similar to 10% that of the summed cytochrome P450 metabolites. Taken together, the data confirm the participation of active metabolites in the in vivo efficacy of PPI-2458. The structures define a metabolic pathway for PPI-2458 that is distinct from that of TNP-470 ((3R, 4S, 5S, 6R)-5-methoxy-4-(2R, 3R)-2-methyl-3-(3-methylbut-2-enyl)oxiran-2-yl]-1-oxaspiro2.5]octan-6 -yl] N-(2-chloroacetyl)carbamate). The high level of MetAP2 inhibition achieved in vivo supports the value of fumagillin-derived therapeutics for angiogenic diseases.

Biochemical Properties of MutT2 Proteins from Mycobacterium tuberculosis and M. smegmatis and Their Contrasting Antimutator Roles in Escherichia coli

Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis, is at increased risk of accumulating damaged guanine nucleotides such as 8-oxo-dGTP and 8-oxo-GTP because of its residency in the oxidative environment of the host macrophages. By hydrolyzing the oxidized guanine nucleotides before their incorporation into nucleic acids, MutT proteins play a critical role in allowing organisms to avoid their deleterious effects. Mycobacteria possess several MutT proteins. Here, we purified recombinant M. tuberculosis MutT2 (MtuMutT2) and M. smegmatis MutT2 (MsmMutT2) proteins from M. tuberculosis (a slow grower) and M. smegmatis (fast growing model mycobacteria), respectively, for their biochemical characterization. Distinct from the Escherichia coli MutT, which hydrolyzes 8-oxo-dGTP and 8-oxo-GTP, the mycobacterial proteins hydrolyze not only 8-oxo-dGTP and 8-oxo-GTP but also dCTP and 5-methyl-dCTP. Determination of kinetic parameters (K-m and V-max) revealed that while MtuMutT2 hydrolyzes dCTP nearly four times better than it does 8-oxo-dGTP, MsmMutT2 hydrolyzes them nearly equally. Also, MsmMutT2 is about 14 times more efficient than MtuMutT2 in its catalytic activity of hydrolyzing 8-oxo-dGTP. Consistent with these observations, MsmMutT2 but not MtuMutT2 rescues E. coli for MutT deficiency by decreasing both the mutation frequency and A-to-C mutations (a hallmark of MutT deficiency). We discuss these findings in the context of the physiological significance of MutT proteins.

Low temperature growth of SnO2 nanowires by electron beam evaporation and their application in UV light detection

For the first time, high quality tin oxide (SnO2) nanowires have been synthesized at a low substrate temperature of 450 degrees C via vapor-liquid-solid mechanism using an electron beam evaporation technique. The grown nanowires have shown length of 2-4 mu m and diameter of 20-60 nm. High resolution transmission electron microscope studies on the grown nanowires have shown the single crystalline nature of the SnO2 nanowires. We investigated the effect of growth temperature and oxygen partial pressure on SnO2 nanowires growth. Variation of substrate temperature at a constant oxygen partial pressure of 4 x 10(-4) mbar suggested that a temperature equal to or greater than 450 degrees C was the best condition for phase pure SnO2 nanowires growth. The SnO2 nanowires grown on a SiO2 substrate were subjected to UV photo detection. The responsivity and quantum efficiency of SnO2 NWs photo detector (at 10V applied bias) was 12 A/W and 45, respectively, for 12 mu W/cm(2) UV lamp (330 nm) intensity on the photo detector.

Effects of different modes of hot cross-rolling in 7010 aluminum alloy: part I. evolution of microstructure and texture

The current study describes the evolution of microstructure and texture in an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu-Zr-based 7010 aluminum alloy during different modes of hot cross-rolling. Processing of materials involves three different types of cross-rolling. The development of texture in the one-step cross-rolled specimen can be described by a typical beta-fiber having the maximum intensity near Copper (Cu) component. However, for the multi-step cross-rolled specimens, the as-rolled texture is mainly characterized by a strong rotated-Brass (Bs) component and a very weak rotated-cube component. Subsequent heat treatment leads to sharpening of the major texture component (i.e., rotated-Bs). Furthermore, the main texture components in all the specimens appear to be significantly rotated in a complex manner away from their ideal positions because of non-symmetric deformations in the two rolling directions. Detailed microstructural study indicates that dynamic recovery is the dominant restoration mechanism operating during the hot rolling. During subsequent heat treatment, static recovery dominates, while a combination of particle-stimulated nucleation (PSN) and strain-induced grain boundary migration (SIBM) causes partial recrystallization of the grain structure. The aforementioned restoration mechanisms play an important role in the development of texture components. The textural development in the current study could be attributed to the combined effects of (a) cross-rolling and inter-pass annealing that reduce the intensity of Cu component after each successive pass, (b) recrystallization resistance of Bs-oriented grains, (c) stability of Bs texture under cross-rolling, and (d) Zener pinning by Al3Zr dispersoids.

A hybrid method for stochastic response analysis of a vibrating structure

Response analysis of a linear structure with uncertainties in both structural parameters and external excitation is considered here. When such an analysis is carried out using the spectral stochastic finite element method (SSFEM), often the computational cost tends to be prohibitive due to the rapid growth of the number of spectral bases with the number of random variables and the order of expansion. For instance, if the excitation contains a random frequency, or if it is a general random process, then a good approximation of these excitations using polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) involves a large number of terms, which leads to very high cost. To address this issue of high computational cost, a hybrid method is proposed in this work. In this method, first the random eigenvalue problem is solved using the weak formulation of SSFEM, which involves solving a system of deterministic nonlinear algebraic equations to estimate the PCE coefficients of the random eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Then the response is estimated using a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, where the modal bases are sampled from the PCE of the random eigenvectors estimated in the previous step, followed by a numerical time integration. It is observed through numerical studies that this proposed method successfully reduces the computational burden compared with either a pure SSFEM of a pure MC simulation and more accurate than a perturbation method. The computational gain improves as the problem size in terms of degrees of freedom grows. It also improves as the timespan of interest reduces.

Autoregulation of topoisomerase I expression by supercoiling sensitive transcription

The opposing catalytic activities of topoisomerase I (TopoI/relaxase) and DNA gyrase (supercoiling enzyme) ensure homeostatic maintenance of bacterial chromosome supercoiling. Earlier studies in Es-cherichia coli suggested that the alteration in DNA supercoiling affects the DNA gyrase and TopoI expression. Although, the role of DNA elements around the promoters were proposed in regulation of gyrase, the molecular mechanism of supercoiling mediated control of TopoI expression is not yet understood. Here, we describe the regulation of TopoI expression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Mycobac-terium smegmatis by a mechanism termed Supercoiling Sensitive Transcription (SST). In both the organisms, topoI promoter(s) exhibited reduced activity in response to chromosome relaxation suggesting that SST is intrinsic to topoI promoter(s). We elucidate the role of promoter architecture and high transcriptional activity of upstream genes in topoI regulation. Analysis of the promoter(s) revealed the presence of suboptimal spacing between the -35 and -10 elements, rendering them supercoiling sensitive. Accordingly, upon chromosome relaxation, RNA polymerase occupancy was decreased on the topoI promoter region implicating the role of DNA topology in SST of topoI. We propose that negative supercoiling induced DNA twisting/writhing align the -35 and -10 elements to facilitate the optimal transcription of topoI.

亚微米氮化钛膜的纳米压痕和划痕测定Coatings

采用等离子电弧沉积的方法分别在GT35和40CrNiMo钢上沉积厚约为0.5mm 的氮化钛(TiN)膜。为了筛选基材，采用纳米压痕和划痕技术评价膜基界面结合和固体润滑效果。纳米压痕结果，采用等离子电弧沉积的方法，分别在GT35和40CrNiMo钢上沉积厚约为0.5$\mu $m 的氮化钛(TiN)膜。为了筛选基材，采用纳米压痕和划痕技术，评价膜基界面结合和固体润滑效果。纳米压痕结果，GT35，40CrNiMo和TiN的纳米硬度/弹性模量的典型值分别约为11.5 Gpa/330 Gpa，6.0 Gpa/210 Gpa，30 Gpa/450 Gpa。纳米划痕结果，GT35有较理想的膜基结合能力；GT35，40CrNiMo，TiN及其有机膜的摩擦系数分别约为0.25，0.45，0.15，0.10。同40CrNiMo相比，GT35是较为理想的基体材料。纳米压痕和划痕技术能提供丰富的近表面的弹塑性变形、断裂和摩擦等的信息，是评价亚微米薄膜力学性能的有效手段。

吸力式桶形基础抗拔承载力特性试验研究

为了了解吸力式桶形基础在饱和粉细砂中的抗拔承载力特性,对不同桶高、不同加载速率下的桶形基础进行了室内小模型抗拔承载力试验.结果表明,桶高和加载速率对桶形基础抗拔承载力有着显著的影响.根据试验结果分析了桶形基础抗拔承载力的作用机理.