Validation of FHWA crash models for rural intersections - Lessons learned

A national-level safety analysis tool is needed to complement existing analytical tools for assessment of the safety impacts of roadway design alternatives. FHWA has sponsored the development of the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM), which is roadway design and redesign software that estimates the safety effects of alternative designs. Considering the importance of IHSDM in shaping the future of safety-related transportation investment decisions, FHWA justifiably sponsored research with the sole intent of independently validating some of the statistical models and algorithms in IHSDM. Statistical model validation aims to accomplish many important tasks, including (a) assessment of the logical defensibility of proposed models, (b) assessment of the transferability of models over future time periods and across different geographic locations, and (c) identification of areas in which future model improvements should be made. These three activities are reported for five proposed types of rural intersection crash prediction models. The internal validation of the model revealed that the crash models potentially suffer from omitted variables that affect safety, site selection and countermeasure selection bias, poorly measured and surrogate variables, and misspecification of model functional forms. The external validation indicated the inability of models to perform on par with model estimation performance. Recommendations for improving the state of the practice from this research include the systematic conduct of carefully designed before-and-after studies, improvements in data standardization and collection practices, and the development of analytical methods to combine the results of before-and-after studies with cross-sectional studies in a meaningful and useful way.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Optimization of long rural feeders using a genetic algorithm

This paper describes the optimization of conductor size and the voltage regulator location & magnitude of long rural distribution lines. The optimization minimizes the lifetime cost of the lines, including capital costs and losses while observing voltage drop and operational constraints using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The GA optimization is applied to a real Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) network in regional Queensland and results are presented.

Incorporating community history into urban redevelopment

A community history project must be relevant to each person within it so that they see themselves as part of the socio-cultural fabric of the area and feel a sense of ownership of their environment. The Mill Albion community history project is a diverse, multi-layered public history/art program that captures the social heritage of The Mill Albion and allows the community to contribute to their ongoing history. The Albion Flour Mill was built in 1930 at a time when Australia was feeling the effects of its worst economic depression and continued operations for more than 72 years. After ceasing operation in 2005 the site was left to deteriorate. The FKP Property Group purchased the land to undertake a new urban redevelopment project, drawing on the design principles of a traditional ‘village’, while valuing the importance of remembering the community that once included the Flour Mill. This paper reflects on the this project and showcases some of the culturally creative ways this community’s history was told, using methods such as digital stories, contemporary and historical photography and oral history.

A story worth telling : putting oral history and digital collections online in cultural institutions

Digital platforms in cultural institutions offer exciting opportunities for oral history and digital storytelling that can augment and enrich traditional collections. The way in which cultural institutions allow access to the public is changing dramatically, prompting substantial expansions of their oral history and digital story holdings. In Queensland, Australia, public libraries and museums are becoming innovative hubs of a wide assortment of collections that represent a cross-section of community groups and organisations through the integration of oral history and digital storytelling. The State Library of Queensland (SLQ) features digital stories online to encourage users to explore what the institution has in the catalogue through their website. Now SLQ also offers oral history interviews online, to introduce users to oral history and other components of their collections,- such as photographs and documents to current, as well as new users. This includes the various departments, Indigenous centres and regional libraries affiliated with SLQ statewide, who are often unable to access the materials held within, or even full information about, the collections available within the institution. There has been a growing demand for resources and services that help to satisfy community enthusiasm and promote engagement. Demand increases as public access to affordable digital media technologies increases, and as community or marginalised groups become interested in do it yourself (DIY) history; and SLQ encourages this. This paper draws on the oral history and digital story-based research undertaken by the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) for the State Library of Queensland including: the Apology Collection: The Prime Minister’s apology to Australia’s Indigenous Stolen Generation; Five Senses: regional Queensland artists; Gay history of Brisbane; and The Queensland Business Leaders Hall of Fame.

Property damage crash equivalency factors to solve crash frequency-severity dilemma: Case study on South Korean rural roads

Safety interventions (e.g., median barriers, photo enforcement) and road features (e.g., median type and width) can influence crash severity, crash frequency, or both. Both dimensions—crash frequency and crash severity—are needed to obtain a full accounting of road safety. Extensive literature and common sense both dictate that crashes are not created equal, with fatalities costing society more than 1,000 times the cost of property damage crashes on average. Despite this glaring disparity, the profession has not unanimously embraced or successfully defended a nonarbitrary severity weighting approach for analyzing safety data and conducting safety analyses. It is argued here that the two dimensions (frequency and severity) are made available by intelligently and reliably weighting crash frequencies and converting all crashes to property-damage-only crash equivalents (PDOEs) by using comprehensive societal unit crash costs. This approach is analogous to calculating axle load equivalents in the prediction of pavement damage: for instance, a 40,000-lb truck causes 4,025 times more stress than does a 4,000-lb car and so simply counting axles is not sufficient. Calculating PDOEs using unit crash costs is the most defensible and nonarbitrary weighting scheme, allows for the simple incorporation of severity and frequency, and leads to crash models that are sensitive to factors that affect crash severity. Moreover, using PDOEs diminishes the errors introduced by underreporting of less severe crashes—an added benefit of the PDOE analysis approach. The method is illustrated with rural road segment data from South Korea (which in practice would develop PDOEs with Korean crash cost data).