958 resultados para Risks distribution criteria
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Background: There has been a lack of investigation into the spatial distribution and clustering of suicide in Australia, where the population density is lower than many countries and varies dramatically among urban, rural and remote areas. This study aims to examine the spatial distribution of suicide at a Local Governmental Area (LGA) level and identify the LGAs with a high relative risk of suicide in Queensland, Australia, using geographical information system (GIS) techniques.---------- Methods: Data on suicide and demographic variables in each LGA between 1999 and 2003 were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. An age standardised mortality (ASM) rate for suicide was calculated at the LGA level. GIS techniques were used to examine the geographical difference of suicide across different areas.---------- Results: Far north and north-eastern Queensland (i.e., Cook and Mornington Shires) had the highest suicide incidence in both genders, while the south-western areas (i.e., Barcoo and Bauhinia Shires) had the lowest incidence in both genders. In different age groups (≤24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and ≥65 years), ASM rates of suicide varied with gender at the LGA level. Mornington and six other LGAs with low socioeconomic status in the upper Southeast had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk.---------- Conclusions: There was a notable difference in ASM rates of suicide at the LGA level in Queensland. Some LGAs had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk. The determinants of the geographical difference of suicide should be addressed in future research.
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Purpose. To investigate evidence-based visual field size criteria for referral of low-vision (LV) patients for mobility rehabilitation. Methods. One hundred and nine participants with LV and 41 age-matched participants with normal sight (NS) were recruited. The LV group was heterogeneous with diverse causes of visual impairment. We measured binocular kinetic visual fields with the Humphrey Field Analyzer and mobility performance on an obstacle-rich, indoor course. Mobility was assessed as percent preferred walking speed (PPWS) and number of obstacle-contact errors. The weighted kappa coefficient of association (κr) was used to discriminate LV participants with both unsafe and inefficient mobility from those with adequate mobility on the basis of their visual field size for the full sample and for subgroups according to type of visual field loss and whether or not the participants had previously received orientation and mobility training. Results. LV participants with both PPWS <38% and errors >6 on our course were classified as having inadequate (inefficient and unsafe) mobility compared with NS participants. Mobility appeared to be first compromised when the visual field was less than about 1.2 steradians (sr; solid angle of a circular visual field of about 70° diameter). Visual fields <0.23 and 0.63 sr (31 to 52° diameter) discriminated patients with at-risk mobility for the full sample and across the two subgroups. A visual field of 0.05 sr (15° diameter) discriminated those with critical mobility. Conclusions. Our study suggests that: practitioners should be alert to potential mobility difficulties when the visual field is less than about 1.2 sr (70° diameter); assessment for mobility rehabilitation may be warranted when the visual field is constricted to about 0.23 to 0.63 sr (31 to 52° diameter) depending on the nature of their visual field loss and previous history (at risk); and mobility rehabilitation should be conducted before the visual field is constricted to 0.05 sr (15° diameter; critical).
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The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.
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Adolescent injury is a significant health concern and can be a result of the adolescents engagement in transport-related behaviours. There is however significant planning and formative research needed to inform prevention programme design. This presentation reports on the development and evaluation of a curriculum programme that was shown to be effective in reducing transport-related risks and injuries. Early adolescents report injuries resulting from a number of transport-related behaviours including those associated with riding a bicycle, a motorcycle, and as a passenger (survey of 209 Year 9 students). In focus groups, students (n=30) were able to describe the context of transport risks and injuries. Such information provided evidence of the need for an intervention and ecologically valid data on which to base programme design including insights into the language, culture and development of adolescents and their experiences with transport risks. Additional information about teaching practices and implementation issues were explored in interviews with 13 teachers. A psychological theory was selected to operationalise the design of the programmes that drew on such preparatory data. The programme, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth was evaluated with 197 participating and 137 control students (13–14 year olds). Results showed a significant difference between the intervention and control groups from baseline to 6-month follow-up in a number of transport-related risk behaviours and transport-related injuries. The programme thus demonstrated potential in reduce early adolescents transport risk behaviours and associated harm. Discussion will involve the implications of the development research process in designing road safety interventions.
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Background: There has been a significant increase in the availability of online programs for alcohol problems. A systematic review of the research evidence underpinning these programs is timely. Objectives: Our objective was to review the efficacy of online interventions for alcohol misuse. Systematic searches of Medline, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus were conducted for English abstracts (excluding dissertations) published from 1998 onward. Search terms were: (1) Internet, Web*; (2) online, computer*; (3) alcohol*; and (4) E\effect*, trial*, random* (where * denotes a wildcard). Forward and backward searches from identified papers were also conducted. Articles were included if (1) the primary intervention was delivered and accessed via the Internet, (2) the intervention focused on moderating or stopping alcohol consumption, and (3) the study was a randomized controlled trial of an alcohol-related screen, assessment, or intervention. Results: The literature search initially yielded 31 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 17 of which met inclusion criteria. Of these 17 studies, 12 (70.6%) were conducted with university students, and 11 (64.7%) specifically focused on at-risk, heavy, or binge drinkers. Sample sizes ranged from 40 to 3216 (median 261), with 12 (70.6%) studies predominantly involving brief personalized feedback interventions. Using published data, effect sizes could be extracted from 8 of the 17 studies. In relation to alcohol units per week or month and based on 5 RCTs where a measure of alcohol units per week or month could be extracted, differential effect sizes to post treatment ranged from 0.02 to 0.81 (mean 0.42, median 0.54). Pre-post effect sizes for brief personalized feedback interventions ranged from 0.02 to 0.81, and in 2 multi-session modularized interventions, a pre-post effect size of 0.56 was obtained in both. Pre-post differential effect sizes for peak blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) ranged from 0.22 to 0.88, with a mean effect size of 0.66. Conclusions: The available evidence suggests that users can benefit from online alcohol interventions and that this approach could be particularly useful for groups less likely to access traditional alcohol-related services, such as women, young people, and at-risk users. However, caution should be exercised given the limited number of studies allowing extraction of effect sizes, the heterogeneity of outcome measures and follow-up periods, and the large proportion of student-based studies. More extensive RCTs in community samples are required to better understand the efficacy of specific online alcohol approaches, program dosage, the additive effect of telephone or face-to-face interventions, and effective strategies for their dissemination and marketing.
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In this paper, the performance of voltage-source converter-based shunt and series compensators used for load voltage control in electrical power distribution systems has been analyzed and compared, when a nonlinear load is connected across the load bus. The comparison has been made based on the closed-loop frequency resopnse characteristics of the compensated distribution system. A distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) as a shunt device and a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) as a series device are considered in the voltage-control mode for the comparison. The power-quality problems which these compensator address include voltage sags/swells, load voltage harmonic distortions, and unbalancing. The effect of various system parameters on the control performance of the compensator can be studied using the proposed analysis. In particular, the performance of the two compensators are compared with the strong ac supply (stiff source) and weak ac-supply (non-still source) distribution system. The experimental verification of the analytical results derived has been obtained using a laboratory model of the single-phase DSTATCOM and DVR. A generalized converter topology using a cascaded multilevel inverter has been proposed for the medium-voltage distribution system. Simulation studies have been performed in the PSCAD/EMTDC software to verify the results in the three-phase system.
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Optimal scheduling of voltage regulators (VRs), fixed and switched capacitors and voltage on customer side of transformer (VCT) along with the optimal allocaton of VRs and capacitors are performed using a hybrid optimisation method based on discrete particle swarm optimisation and genetic algorithm. Direct optimisation of the tap position is not appropriate since in general the high voltage (HV) side voltage is not known. Therefore, the tap setting can be determined give the optimal VCT once the HV side voltage is known. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost, the peak power loss cost and capacitors' and VRs' capital, operation and maintenance costs. The constraints are limits on bus voltage and feeder current along with VR taps. The bus voltage should be maintained within the standard level and the feeder current should not exceed the feeder-rated current. The taps are to adjust the output voltage of VRs between 90 and 110% of their input voltages. For validation of the proposed method, the 18-bus IEEE system is used. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the benefit of the employed technique. The results also show that the lowest cost planning for voltage profile will be achieved if a combination of capacitors, VRs and VCTs is considered.
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The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.
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Cell based therapies as they apply to tissue engineering and regenerative medicine, require cells capable of self renewal and differentiation, and a prerequisite is to be able to prepare an effective dose of ex vivo expanded cells for autologous transplants. The in vivo identification of a source of physiologically relevant cell types suitable for cell therapies therefore figures as an integral part of tissue engineering. Stem cells serve as a reserve for biological repair, having the potential to differentiate into a number of specialised cell types within the body; they therefore represent the most useful candidates for cell based therapies. The primary goal of stem cell research is to produce cells that are both patient specific, as well as having properties suitable for the specific conditions for which they are intended to remedy. From a purely scientific perspective, stem cells allow scientists to gain a deeper understanding of developmental biology and regenerative therapies. Stem cells have acquired a number of uses for applications in regenerative medicine, immunotherapy, gene therapy, but it is in the area of tissue engineering that they generate most excitement, primarily as a result of their capacity for self-renewal and pluripotency. A unique feature of stem cells is their ability to maintain an uncommitted quiescent state in vivo and then, once triggered by conditions such as disease, injury or natural wear or tear, serve as a reservoir and natural support system to replenish lost cells. Although these cells retain the plasticity to differentiate into various tissues, being able to control this differentiation process is still one of the biggest challenges facing stem cell research. In an effort to harness the potential of these cells a number of studies have been conducted using both embryonic/foetal and adult stem cells. The use of embryonic stem cells (ESC) have been hampered by strong ethical and political concerns, this despite their perceived versatility due to their pluripotency. Ethical issues aside, other concerns raised with ESCs relates to the possibility of tumorigenesis, immune rejection and complications with immunosuppressive therapies, all of which adds layers of complications to the application ESC in research and which has led to the search for alternative sources for stem cells. The adult tissues in higher organisms harbours cells, termed adult stem cells, and these cells are reminiscent of unprogrammed stem cells. A number of sources of adult stem cells have been described. Bone marrow is by far the most accessible source of two potent populations of adult stem cells, namely haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). Autologously harvested adult stem cells can, in contrast to embryonic stem cells, readily be used in autografts, since immune rejection is not an issue; and their use in scientific research has not attracted the ethical concerns which have been the case with embryonic stem cells. The major limitation to their use, however, is the fact that adult stem cells are exceedingly rare in most tissues. This fact makes identifying and isolating these cells problematic; bone marrow being perhaps the only notable exception. Unlike the case of HSCs, there are as yet no rigorous criteria for characterizing MSCs. Changing acuity about the pluripotency of MSCs in recent studies has expanded their potential application; however, the underlying molecular pathways which impart the features distinctive to MSCs remain elusive. Furthermore, the sparse in vivo distribution of these cells imposes a clear limitation to their study in vitro. Also, when MSCs are cultured in vitro, there is a loss of the in vivo microenvironment, resulting in a progressive decline in proliferation potential and multipotentiality. This is further exacerbated with increased passage numbers in culture, characterized by the onset of senescence related changes. As a consequence, it is necessary to establish protocols for generating large numbers of MSCs but without affecting their differentiation potential. MSCs are capable of differentiating into mesenchymal tissue lineages, including bone, cartilage, fat, tendon, muscle, and marrow stroma. Recent findings indicate that adult bone marrow may also contain cells that can differentiate into the mature, nonhematopoietic cells of a number of tissues, including cells of the liver, kidney, lung, skin, gastrointestinal tract, and myocytes of heart and skeletal muscle. MSCs can readily be expanded in vitro and can be genetically modified by viral vectors and be induced to differentiate into specific cell lineages by changing the microenvironment–properties which makes these cells ideal vehicles for cellular gene therapy. MSCs can also exert profound immunosuppressive effects via modulation of both cellular and innate immune pathways, and this property allows them to overcome the issue of immune rejection. Despite the many attractive features associated with MSCs, there are still many hurdles to overcome before these cells are readily available for use in clinical applications. The main concern relates to in vivo characterization and identification of MSCs. The lack of a universal biomarker, sparse in vivo distribution, and a steady age related decline in their numbers, makes it an obvious need to decipher the reprogramming pathways and critical molecular players which govern the characteristics unique to MSCs. This book presents a comprehensive insight into the biology of adult stem cells and their utility in current regeneration therapies. The adult stem cell populations reviewed in this book include bone marrow derived MSCs, adipose derived stem cells (ASCs), umbilical cord blood stem cells, and placental stem cells. The features such as MSC circulation and trafficking, neuroprotective properties, and the nurturing roles and differentiation potential of multiple lineages have been discussed in details. In terms of therapeutic applications, the strengths of MSCs have been presented and their roles in disease treatments such as osteoarthritis, Huntington’s disease, periodontal regeneration, and pancreatic islet transplantation have been discussed. An analysis comparing osteoblast differentiation of umbilical cord blood stem cells and MSCs has been reviewed, as has a comparison of human placental stem cells and ASCs, in terms of isolation, identification and therapeutic applications of ASC in bone, cartilage regeneration, as well as myocardial regeneration. It is my sincere hope that this book will update the reader as to the research progress of MSC biology and potential use of these cells in clinical applications. It will be the best reward to all contributors of this book, if their efforts herein may in some way help the readers in any part of their study, research, and career development.
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How will the digital technology revolution impact the movie business? Hollywood developed a highly successful industrial system that has functioned well for almost a century in the sense that it enabled the Major film studios to largely control and dominate the industry. However, the new digital technology may now be propelling Hollywood toward the biggest technological transition since the creation of the studio system almost a century ago. For example, Major Hollywood studios are already beginning to provide video-on-demand (VOD) digital distribution of movies over the Internet. This article examines what is happening, and why. It sets out the background and the incipient changes already occurring. It makes an argument regarding the fundamental strategic dynamics, that acetate film was the key to the control of the Hollywood system, and speculates about how a shift away from acetate film to digital video may transform that system. The focus is on the impact on how the Major studios release and market their movies, and how new market and marketing opportunities for the low-budget independent filmmaking sector may arise.
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Mainstream representations of trans people typically run the gamut from victim to mentally ill and are almost always articulated by non-trans voices. The era of user-generated digital content and participatory culture has heralded unprecedented opportunities for trans people who wish to speak their own stories in public spaces. Digital Storytelling, as an easy accessible autobiographic audio-visual form, offers scope to play with multi-dimensional and ambiguous representations of identity that contest mainstream assumptions of what it is to be ‘male’ or ‘female’. Also, unlike mainstream media forms, online and viral distribution of Digital Stories offer potential to reach a wide range of audiences, which is appealing to activist oriented storytellers who wish to confront social prejudices. However, with these newfound possibilities come concerns regarding visibility and privacy, especially for storytellers who are all too aware of the risks of being ‘out’ as trans. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of three trans storytellers, with reference to the Digital Stories they have created and shared online and on DVD. These examplars are contextualised with some popular and scholarly perspectives on trans representation, in particular embodied and performed identity. It is contended that trans Digital Stories, while appearing in some ways to be quite conventional, actually challenge common notions of gender identity in ways that are both radical and transformative.
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Workplace serious injuries and deaths due to unsafe work practices are a substantial health and socioeconomic burden to the community, particularly in industries such as construction, agriculture and fishing, and transport and storage. Some 2000 individuals die each year from work-related causes and tens of thousands of individuals incur permanent disabling work-related injuries and the direct (e.g., medical & legal) and indirect (e.g., lost productivity) cost to the Australian economy has been estimated between $32 billion and $57 billion annually. A common cause of workplace injuries and deaths is occupational driving and work-related fatal road crashes comprise between 23 and 32% of work-related fatalities each year. A major safety concern across the various industry groups therefore involve deaths and injuries associated with work-related driving. However, while organisations emphasise safety practices in most spheres of the workplace they often neglect work-related driving and lack appropriate policies to enhance safe driving practices.