Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

How Do Different Types of Investors React to New Financial Statement Information?

The study contributes to our understanding of the forces that drive the stock market by investigating how different types of investors react to new financial statement information. Using the extremely comprehensive official register of share holdings in Finland, we find that the majority of investors are more probable to sell (buy) stocks in a company after a positive (negative) earnings surprise, and show a bias towards buying after the disclosure of new financial statement information. Large investors, on the other hand, show behavior opposite to that of the majority of investors in the market. Further, foreign investors show behavior similar to that of domestic investors. We suggest investor overconfidence and asymmetric information as possible explanations for the documented behavior.

The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Moral Professionalism in Interaction : Educators' Relational Moral Voices in Urban Schools

The aim of this study was to investigate educators relational moral voices in urban schools and to listen to what they told about moral professionalism and moral practices in challenging urban schools. Their relational moral voices were investigated through the following three questions: 1. What are the educators moral voices in relation to themselves and other people? 2. What are the educators moral voices in relation to their work and society? 3. What kind of interaction process lies between the educators moral voices and the urban school context? The research data of this study were gathered in four urban schools in Jyväskylä and Helsinki. The research schools were chosen for this study according to the criteria of the international Socrates Comenius project called Leading Schools Successfully in Challenging Urban Context: Strategies for Improvement. This study formed part of this project, which investigated successful urban schools as challenging learning environments in nine European countries and explored the principals success in leadership in particular. The data, which included 37 narratively constructed interviews with four principals and key informants selected by the principals, were gathered in interviews conducted in 2006. In other words, the data comprised three interviews with each of four principals, and interviews with two teachers, two parents, and two pupils from each school. In addition, the school deacon from one school was also interviewed. Furthermore, part of the data from one of the research schools included a medium report of the school deacon s work. This study combined the case study method, the narrative approach and the critical incident technique as the methodological framework. In addition, all of these methods served as practical tools for both analyzing and reporting the data. The educators' narrations and the results of the study appear in the original articles (Hanhimäki & Tirri 2008; Hanhimäki 2008b; Hanhimäki & Tirri 2009; Hanhimäki 2008a). The educators moral voices in relation to themselves and other people emerged through the main themes of moral leadership, the development and evaluation process, moral sensitivity, gender, values, and student well-being. The educators moral voices in relation to their work and society emerged through the main themes of multiprofessional cooperation, families and parental involvement, and moral school culture. The idea of moral interaction connected moral professionalism and the methodological combination of this study, which together emphasized social interaction and the creation of understanding and meaning in this interaction. The main point of this study was to state that the educators moral voices emerged in the interaction between the educators themselves and the urban school context. In this interaction, the educators moral professionalism was constructed and shaped in relation to themselves, other people, their work and society. The loudest relational moral voices heard through the main themes were those of caring, cooperation, respect, commitment, and professionalism. When the results were compared to the codes of ethics which guided these educators moral professional work, the ethical principles and values of the codes were clearly visible in their moral practices. The loudest message from the educators narration could be summarized in the words caring, respect and cooperation: at its best, there is just a human being and a human being with caring, respect and cooperation between them. The results of this study emphasize the need for practical approaches such as case studies and the narrative approach in teacher education to encourage educators to become moral professionals capable of meeting the needs of people of varied backgrounds. In addition, opportunities for moral, religious and spiritual education should be noticed and utilized in the plural interaction of urban schools when nurturing pupils and creating a moral school culture. Furthermore, multiprofessional cooperation and parents as the school s primary cooperation partner are needed to carry out the shared duty of moral education in urban schools. Keywords: moral professionalism, educator, relational moral voice, interaction, urban school

On Pushing Multilingual Query Operators into Relational Engines

To effectively support today’s global economy, database systems need to manage data in multiple languages simultaneously. While current database systems do support the storage and management of multilingual data, they are not capable of querying across different natural languages. To address this lacuna, we have recently proposed two cross-lingual functionalities, LexEQUAL[13] and SemEQUAL[14], for matching multilingual names and concepts, respectively. In this paper, we investigate the native implementation of these multilingual functionalities as first-class operators on relational engines. Specifically, we propose a new multilingual storage datatype, and an associated algebra of the multilingual operators on this datatype. These components have been successfully implemented in the PostgreSQL database system, including integration of the algebra with the query optimizer and inclusion of a metric index in the access layer. Our experiments demonstrate that the performance of the native implementation is up to two orders-of-magnitude faster than the corresponding outsidethe- server implementation. Further, these multilingual additions do not adversely impact the existing functionality and performance. To the best of our knowledge, our prototype represents the first practical implementation of a crosslingual database query engine.

Combining heterogeneous classifiers for relational databases

Practical usage of machine learning is gaining strategic importance in enterprises looking for business intelligence. However, most enterprise data is distributed in multiple relational databases with expert-designed schema. Using traditional single-table machine learning techniques over such data not only incur a computational penalty for converting to a flat form (mega-join), even the human-specified semantic information present in the relations is lost. In this paper, we present a practical, two-phase hierarchical meta-classification algorithm for relational databases with a semantic divide and conquer approach. We propose a recursive, prediction aggregation technique over heterogeneous classifiers applied on individual database tables. The proposed algorithm was evaluated on three diverse datasets. namely TPCH, PKDD and UCI benchmarks and showed considerable reduction in classification time without any loss of prediction accuracy. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating grasping behavior of people using the relational description scheme

This paper presents an enhanced relational description for the prescription of the grasp requirement and evolution of the posture of a digital human hand towards satisfaction of this requirement. Precise relational description needs anatomical segmentation of the hand geometry into palmar, dorsal and lateral patches using the palm-plane and joint locations information, and operational segmentation of the object geometry into pull,push and lateral patches with due consideration to the effect of friction. Relational description identifies appropriate patches for a desired grasp condition. Satisfaction of this requirement occurs in two discrete stages,namely,contact establishment and post-contact force exertion for object capturing. Contact establishment occurs in four potentially overlapping phases,namely,re-orientation,transfer,pre- shaping,and closing-in. The novel h and re-orientation phase,enables the palm to face the object in a task sequence scenario, transfer takes the wrist to the ball park ; pre-shaping and close-in finally achieves the contact. In this paper, an anatomically pertinent closed-form formulation is presented for the closing-in phase for identification of the point of contact on the patches ,prescribed by the relational description. Since mere contact does not ensure grasp and slip phenomenon at the point of contact on application of force is a common occurrence, the effect of slip in presence of friction has been studied for 2D and 3D object grasping endeavours and a computational generation of the slip locus is presented.A general slip locus is found to be a non-linear curve even on planar faces.Two varieties of slip phenomena,namely,stabilizing and non-stabilizing slips, and their local characteristics have been identified.Study of the evolution of this slip characteristic over the slip locus exhibited diverse grasping behaviour possibilities. Thus, the relational description paradigm not only makes the requirement specification easy and meaningful but also enables high fidelity hand object interaction studies possible.

A relational contract for water demand management

For necessary goods like water, under supply constraints, fairness considerations lead to negative externalities. The objective of this paper is to design an infinite horizon contract or relational contract (a type of long-term contract) that ensures self-enforcing (instead of court-enforced) behaviour by the agents to mitigate the externality due to fairness issues. In this contract, the consumer is induced to consume at firm-supply level using the threat of higher fair price for future time periods. The pricing mechanism, computed in this paper, internalizes the externality and is shown to be economically efficient and provides revenue sufficiency.

Dynamic multi-relational Chinese restaurant process for analyzing influences on users in social media

We study the problem of analyzing influence of various factors affecting individual messages posted in social media. The problem is challenging because of various types of influences propagating through the social media network that act simultaneously on any user. Additionally, the topic composition of the influencing factors and the susceptibility of users to these influences evolve over time. This problem has not been studied before, and off-the-shelf models are unsuitable for this purpose. To capture the complex interplay of these various factors, we propose a new non-parametric model called the Dynamic Multi-Relational Chinese Restaurant Process. This accounts for the user network for data generation and also allows the parameters to evolve over time. Designing inference algorithms for this model suited for large scale social-media data is another challenge. To this end, we propose a scalable and multi-threaded inference algorithm based on online Gibbs Sampling. Extensive evaluations on large-scale Twitter and Face book data show that the extracted topics when applied to authorship and commenting prediction outperform state-of-the-art baselines. More importantly, our model produces valuable insights on topic trends and user personality trends beyond the capability of existing approaches.