A Q-Methodology approach to investigating the relationship between level of reflection and typologies among prospective teachers in the physics learning assistant program at Florida International University

The purpose of this mixed methods study was to understand physics Learning Assistants' (LAs) views on reflective teaching, expertise in teaching, and LA program teaching experience and to determine if views predicted level of reflection evident in writing. Interviews were conducted in Phase One, Q methodology was used in Phase Two, and level of reflection in participants' writing was assessed using a rubric based on Hatton and Smith's (1995) "Criteria for the Recognition of Evidence for Different Types of Reflective Writing" in Phase Three. Interview analysis revealed varying perspectives on content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge, and experience in relation to expertise in teaching. Participants revealed that they engaged in reflection on their teaching, believed reflection helps teachers improve, and found peer reflection beneficial. Participants believed teaching experience in the LA program provided preparation for teaching, but that more preparation was needed to teach. Three typologies emerged in Phase Two. Type One LAs found participation in the LA program rewarding and believed expertise in teaching does not require expertise in content or pedagogy, but it develops over time from reflection. Type Two LAs valued reflection, but not writing reflections, felt the LA program teaching experience helped them decide on non-teaching careers and helped them confront gaps in their physics knowledge. Type Three LAs valued reflection, believed expertise in content and pedagogy are necessary for expert teaching, and felt LA program teaching experience increased their likelihood of becoming teachers, but did not prepare them for teaching. Writing assignments submitted in Phase Three were categorized as 19% descriptive writing, 60% descriptive reflections, and 21% dialogic reflections. No assignments were categorized as critical reflection. Using ordinal logistic regression, typologies that emerged in Phase Two were not found to be predictors for the level of reflection evident in the writing assignments. In conclusion, viewpoints of physics LAs were revealed, typologies among them were discovered, and their writing gave evidence of their ability to reflect on teaching. These findings may benefit faculty and staff in the LA program by helping them better understand the views of physics LAs and how to assess their various forms of reflection.

An automated approach for performance deviation analysis of evolving software systems

A manutenção e evolução de sistemas de software tornou-se uma tarefa bastante crítica ao longo dos últimos anos devido à diversidade e alta demanda de funcionalidades, dispositivos e usuários. Entender e analisar como novas mudanças impactam os atributos de qualidade da arquitetura de tais sistemas é um pré-requisito essencial para evitar a deterioração de sua qualidade durante sua evolução. Esta tese propõe uma abordagem automatizada para a análise de variação do atributo de qualidade de desempenho em termos de tempo de execução (tempo de resposta). Ela é implementada por um framework que adota técnicas de análise dinâmica e mineração de repositório de software para fornecer uma forma automatizada de revelar fontes potenciais – commits e issues – de variação de desempenho em cenários durante a evolução de sistemas de software. A abordagem define quatro fases: (i) preparação – escolher os cenários e preparar os releases alvos; (ii) análise dinâmica – determinar o desempenho de cenários e métodos calculando seus tempos de execução; (iii) análise de variação – processar e comparar os resultados da análise dinâmica para releases diferentes; e (iv) mineração de repositório – identificar issues e commits associados com a variação de desempenho detectada. Estudos empíricos foram realizados para avaliar a abordagem de diferentes perspectivas. Um estudo exploratório analisou a viabilidade de se aplicar a abordagem em sistemas de diferentes domínios para identificar automaticamente elementos de código fonte com variação de desempenho e as mudanças que afetaram tais elementos durante uma evolução. Esse estudo analisou três sistemas: (i) SIGAA – um sistema web para gerência acadêmica; (ii) ArgoUML – uma ferramenta de modelagem UML; e (iii) Netty – um framework para aplicações de rede. Outro estudo realizou uma análise evolucionária ao aplicar a abordagem em múltiplos releases do Netty, e dos frameworks web Wicket e Jetty. Nesse estudo foram analisados 21 releases (sete de cada sistema), totalizando 57 cenários. Em resumo, foram encontrados 14 cenários com variação significante de desempenho para Netty, 13 para Wicket e 9 para Jetty. Adicionalmente, foi obtido feedback de oito desenvolvedores desses sistemas através de um formulário online. Finalmente, no último estudo, um modelo de regressão para desempenho foi desenvolvido visando indicar propriedades de commits que são mais prováveis a causar degradação de desempenho. No geral, 997 commits foram minerados, sendo 103 recuperados de elementos de código fonte degradados e 19 de otimizados, enquanto 875 não tiveram impacto no tempo de execução. O número de dias antes de disponibilizar o release e o dia da semana se mostraram como as variáveis mais relevantes dos commits que degradam desempenho no nosso modelo. A área de característica de operação do receptor (ROC – Receiver Operating Characteristic) do modelo de regressão é 60%, o que significa que usar o modelo para decidir se um commit causará degradação ou não é 10% melhor do que uma decisão aleatória.

An automated approach for performance deviation analysis of evolving software systems

A manutenção e evolução de sistemas de software tornou-se uma tarefa bastante crítica ao longo dos últimos anos devido à diversidade e alta demanda de funcionalidades, dispositivos e usuários. Entender e analisar como novas mudanças impactam os atributos de qualidade da arquitetura de tais sistemas é um pré-requisito essencial para evitar a deterioração de sua qualidade durante sua evolução. Esta tese propõe uma abordagem automatizada para a análise de variação do atributo de qualidade de desempenho em termos de tempo de execução (tempo de resposta). Ela é implementada por um framework que adota técnicas de análise dinâmica e mineração de repositório de software para fornecer uma forma automatizada de revelar fontes potenciais – commits e issues – de variação de desempenho em cenários durante a evolução de sistemas de software. A abordagem define quatro fases: (i) preparação – escolher os cenários e preparar os releases alvos; (ii) análise dinâmica – determinar o desempenho de cenários e métodos calculando seus tempos de execução; (iii) análise de variação – processar e comparar os resultados da análise dinâmica para releases diferentes; e (iv) mineração de repositório – identificar issues e commits associados com a variação de desempenho detectada. Estudos empíricos foram realizados para avaliar a abordagem de diferentes perspectivas. Um estudo exploratório analisou a viabilidade de se aplicar a abordagem em sistemas de diferentes domínios para identificar automaticamente elementos de código fonte com variação de desempenho e as mudanças que afetaram tais elementos durante uma evolução. Esse estudo analisou três sistemas: (i) SIGAA – um sistema web para gerência acadêmica; (ii) ArgoUML – uma ferramenta de modelagem UML; e (iii) Netty – um framework para aplicações de rede. Outro estudo realizou uma análise evolucionária ao aplicar a abordagem em múltiplos releases do Netty, e dos frameworks web Wicket e Jetty. Nesse estudo foram analisados 21 releases (sete de cada sistema), totalizando 57 cenários. Em resumo, foram encontrados 14 cenários com variação significante de desempenho para Netty, 13 para Wicket e 9 para Jetty. Adicionalmente, foi obtido feedback de oito desenvolvedores desses sistemas através de um formulário online. Finalmente, no último estudo, um modelo de regressão para desempenho foi desenvolvido visando indicar propriedades de commits que são mais prováveis a causar degradação de desempenho. No geral, 997 commits foram minerados, sendo 103 recuperados de elementos de código fonte degradados e 19 de otimizados, enquanto 875 não tiveram impacto no tempo de execução. O número de dias antes de disponibilizar o release e o dia da semana se mostraram como as variáveis mais relevantes dos commits que degradam desempenho no nosso modelo. A área de característica de operação do receptor (ROC – Receiver Operating Characteristic) do modelo de regressão é 60%, o que significa que usar o modelo para decidir se um commit causará degradação ou não é 10% melhor do que uma decisão aleatória.

Distributed Feature Selection in Large n and Large p Regression Problems

Fitting statistical models is computationally challenging when the sample size or the dimension of the dataset is huge. An attractive approach for down-scaling the problem size is to first partition the dataset into subsets and then fit using distributed algorithms. The dataset can be partitioned either horizontally (in the sample space) or vertically (in the feature space), and the challenge arise in defining an algorithm with low communication, theoretical guarantees and excellent practical performance in general settings. For sample space partitioning, I propose a MEdian Selection Subset AGgregation Estimator ({\em message}) algorithm for solving these issues. The algorithm applies feature selection in parallel for each subset using regularized regression or Bayesian variable selection method, calculates the `median' feature inclusion index, estimates coefficients for the selected features in parallel for each subset, and then averages these estimates. The algorithm is simple, involves very minimal communication, scales efficiently in sample size, and has theoretical guarantees. I provide extensive experiments to show excellent performance in feature selection, estimation, prediction, and computation time relative to usual competitors.

While sample space partitioning is useful in handling datasets with large sample size, feature space partitioning is more effective when the data dimension is high. Existing methods for partitioning features, however, are either vulnerable to high correlations or inefficient in reducing the model dimension. In the thesis, I propose a new embarrassingly parallel framework named {\em DECO} for distributed variable selection and parameter estimation. In {\em DECO}, variables are first partitioned and allocated to m distributed workers. The decorrelated subset data within each worker are then fitted via any algorithm designed for high-dimensional problems. We show that by incorporating the decorrelation step, DECO can achieve consistent variable selection and parameter estimation on each subset with (almost) no assumptions. In addition, the convergence rate is nearly minimax optimal for both sparse and weakly sparse models and does NOT depend on the partition number m. Extensive numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the performance of the new framework.

For datasets with both large sample sizes and high dimensionality, I propose a new "divided-and-conquer" framework {\em DEME} (DECO-message) by leveraging both the {\em DECO} and the {\em message} algorithm. The new framework first partitions the dataset in the sample space into row cubes using {\em message} and then partition the feature space of the cubes using {\em DECO}. This procedure is equivalent to partitioning the original data matrix into multiple small blocks, each with a feasible size that can be stored and fitted in a computer in parallel. The results are then synthezied via the {\em DECO} and {\em message} algorithm in a reverse order to produce the final output. The whole framework is extremely scalable.

Randomized Trial for a Mobile Health Approach to Increase Uptake of Cervical Cancer Screening in Tanzania

Background: Largely due to low availability and uptake of screening in low- and middle-income countries, cervical cancer is the second ranked cancer among women in these countries. This is a tragedy because cervical cancer is one of the most preventable carcinomas. This thesis will investigate behaviour change methods, which capitalize on the recent exponential increase in ownership of mobile phones in Tanzania, to increase uptake of cervical cancer screening (CCS) in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. Objectives: 1) To evaluate the effectiveness of behaviour change messages delivered via short message service (SMS) on the uptake of CCS in the Kilimanjaro region; 2) to evaluate the effectiveness of a transportation eVoucher on the uptake of CCS in the Kilimanjaro region; 3) to explore characteristics associated with CCS uptake in the Kilimanjaro region; and 4) to determine the attitudes towards and perceived benefit of behaviour change SMS messages and eVouchers intended to increase uptake of CCS. Methods: In the Kilimanjaro Region, 853 women participated in a randomized controlled trial. Baseline data was collected through self-report through systematic stratified random sampling. Participants were randomized to one of three groups: a control group, a group receiving behaviour change messages delivered via SMS, or a group receiving a travel eVoucher and identical SMS as the SMS group. A fieldworker recorded participants attending screening at the CCS clinics and administered a post-screening survey. The follow-up period was two months from the time of the participant’s enrolment. Logistic regression (both for the combined and stratified data sets) was used to determine associations between the behaviour change interventions, baseline characteristics and cervical cancer screening uptake. Results: All participants receiving SMS messages (SMS or eVoucher group) were more likely to attend cervical cancer screening in comparison with the control group. 83% of participants who attended screening shared the information contained in the messages with others. Conclusions: Behaviour change messages delivered via SMS and transportation eVouchers have the potential to increase uptake of cervical cancer screening in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. Harnessing this potential will require implementing these interventions alongside other methods to achieve maximum impact.

COACHES, CLIMATES, “FIELD” GOALS, AND EFFICACY: A “DE-CONSTRUCTION” OF THE MASTERY-APPROACH TO COACHING AND EXAMINATION OF RELATIONSHIPS TO PSYCHOSOCIAL OUTCOMES IN A YOUTH FOOTBALL PLAYER DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM.

In support of the achievement goal theory (AGT), empirical research has demonstrated psychosocial benefits of the mastery-oriented learning climate. In this study, we examined the effects of perceived coaching behaviors on various indicators of psychosocial well-being (competitive anxiety, self-esteem, perceived competence, enjoyment, and future intentions for participation), as mediated by perceptions of the coach-initiated motivational climate, achievement goal orientations and perceptions of sport-specific skills efficacy. Using a pre-post test design, 1,464 boys, ages 10-15 (M = 12.84 years, SD = 1.44), who participated in a series of 12 football skills clinics were surveyed from various locations across the United States. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) path analysis and hierarchical regression analysis, the cumulative direct and indirect effects of the perceived coaching behaviors on the psychosocial variables at post-test were parsed out to determine what types of coaching behaviors are more conducive to the positive psychosocial development of youth athletes. The study demonstrated that how coaching behaviors are perceived impacts the athletes’ perceptions of the motivational climate and achievement goal orientations, as well as self-efficacy beliefs. These effects in turn affect the athletes’ self-esteem, general competence, sport-specific competence, competitive anxiety, enjoyment, and intentions to remain involved in the sport. The findings also clarify how young boys internalize and interpret coaches’ messages through modification of achievement goal orientations and sport-specific efficacy beliefs.

Public firm sponsorship of open source software: A knowledge-based approach to open innovation

As an emerging innovation paradigm gaining momentum in recent years, the open innovation paradigm is calling for greater theoretical depth and more empirical research. This dissertation proposes that open innovation in the context of open source software sponsorship may be viewed as knowledge strategies of the firm. Hence, this dissertation examines the performance determinants of open innovation through the lens of knowledge-based perspectives. Using event study and regression methodologies, this dissertation found that these open source software sponsorship events can indeed boost the stock market performance of US public firms. In addition, both the knowledge capabilities of the firms and the knowledge profiles of the open source projects they sponsor matter for performance. In terms of firm knowledge capabilities, internet service firms perform better than other firms owing to their advantageous complementary capabilities. Also, strong knowledge exploitation capabilities of the firm are positively associated with performance. In terms of the knowledge profile of sponsored projects, platform projects perform better than component projects. Also, community-originated projects outperform firm-originated projects. Finally, based on these findings, this dissertation discussed the important theoretical implications for the strategic tradeoff between knowledge protection and sharing.

From the human rights-based approach to an ecological approach on how to achieve successful inclusion in international disability education

The barriers that people with disabilities face around the world are not only inherent to the limitations resulting from the disability itself, but, more importantly, these barriers rest with the societal technologies of exclusion. Using a mixed methodology approach, I conduct a quest to revealing several societal factors that limit full participation of people with disabilities in their communities, which will contribute to understanding and developing a more comprehensive framework for full inclusion of people with disabilities into the society. First, I conduct a multiple regression analysis to seek whether there is a statistical relationship between the national level of development, the level of democratization, and the level of education within a country’s population on one hand, and expressed concern for and preparedness to improve the quality of life for people of disabilities on another hand. The results from the quantitative methodology reveal that people without disabilities are more prepared to take care of people with disabilities when the level of development of the country is higher, when the people have more freedom of expression and hold the government accountable for its actions, and when the level of corruption is under control. However, a greater concern for the well-being of people with disabilities is correlated with a high level of country development, a decreased value of political stability and absence of violence, a decreased level of government effectiveness, and a greater level of law enforcement. None of the dependent variables are significantly correlated with the level of education from a given country. Then, I delve into an interpretive analysis to understand multiple factors that contribute to the construction of attitudes and practices towards people with disabilities. In doing this, I build upon the four main principles outlined by the United Nations as strongly recommended to be embedded in all international programmes: (1) identification of claims of human rights and the corresponding obligations of governments, hence, I assess and analyze disability rights in education, looking at United Nation, United States, and European Union Perspectives Educational Rights Provisions for People with Disabilities (Ch. 3); (2) estimated capacity of individuals to claim their rights and of governments to fulfill their obligations, hence, I look at the people with disabilities as rights-holders and duty-bearers and discuss the importance of investing in special capital in the context of global development (Ch. 4); (3) programmes monitor and evaluate the outcomes and the processes under the auspices of human rights standards, hence, I look at the importance of evaluating the UN World Programme of Action Concerning People with Disabilities from multiple perspectives, as an example of why and how to monitor and evaluate educational human rights outcomes and processes (Ch. 5); and (4) programming should reflect the recommendations of international human rights bodies and mechanisms, hence, I focus on programming that fosters development of the capacity of people with disabilities, that is, planning for an ecology of disabilities and ecoducation for people with disabilities (Ch. 6). Results from both methodologies converge to a certain point, and they further complement each other. One common result for the two methodologies employed is that disability is an evolving concept when viewed in a broader context, which integrates the four spaces that the ecological framework incorporates. Another common result is that factors such as economic, social, legal, political, and natural resources and contexts contribute to the health, education and employment opportunities, and to the overall well-being of people with disabilities. The ecological framework sees all these factors from a meta-systemic perspective, where bi-directional interactions are expected and desired, and also from a human rights point of view, where the inherent value of people is upheld at its highest standard.

Mapping tissue inhomogeneity in acute myocarditis: a novel analytical approach to quantitative myocardial edema imaging by T2-mapping

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the diagnostic value of T2-mapping in acute myocarditis (ACM) and to define cut-off values for edema detection. METHODS: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) data of 31 patients with ACM were retrospectively analyzed. 30 healthy volunteers (HV) served as a control. Additionally to the routine CMR protocol, T2-mapping data were acquired at 1.5 T using a breathhold Gradient-Spin-Echo T2-mapping sequence in six short axis slices. T2-maps were segmented according to the 16-segments AHA-model and segmental T2 values as well as the segmental pixel-standard deviation (SD) were analyzed. RESULTS: Mean differences of global myocardial T2 or pixel-SD between HV and ACM patients were only small, lying in the normal range of HV. In contrast, variation of segmental T2 values and pixel-SD was much larger in ACM patients compared to HV. In random forests and multiple logistic regression analyses, the combination of the highest segmental T2 value within each patient (maxT2) and the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of log-transformed pixel-SD (madSD) over all 16 segments within each patient proved to be the best discriminators between HV and ACM patients with an AUC of 0.85 in ROC-analysis. In classification trees, a combined cut-off of 0.22 for madSD and of 68 ms for maxT2 resulted in 83% specificity and 81% sensitivity for detection of ACM. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed cut-off values for maxT2 and madSD in the setting of ACM allow edema detection with high sensitivity and specificity and therefore have the potential to overcome the hurdles of T2-mapping for its integration into clinical routine.

Optimization of the Ion Source-Mass Spectrometry Parameters in Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory and Analgesic Pharmaceuticals Analysis by a Design of Experiments Approach

The flow rates of drying and nebulizing gas, heat block and desolvation line temperatures and interface voltage are potential electrospray ionization parameters as they may enhance sensitivity of the mass spectrometer. The conditions that give higher sensitivity of 13 pharmaceuticals were explored. First, Plackett-Burman design was implemented to screen significant factors, and it was concluded that interface voltage and nebulizing gas flow were the only factors that influence the intensity signal for all pharmaceuticals. This fractionated factorial design was projected to set a full 2(2) factorial design with center points. The lack-of-fit test proved to be significant. Then, a central composite face-centered design was conducted. Finally, a stepwise multiple linear regression and subsequently an optimization problem solving were carried out. Two main drug clusters were found concerning the signal intensities of all runs of the augmented factorial design. p-Aminophenol, salicylic acid, and nimesulide constitute one cluster as a result of showing much higher sensitivity than the remaining drugs. The other cluster is more homogeneous with some sub-clusters comprising one pharmaceutical and its respective metabolite. It was observed that instrumental signal increased when both significant factors increased with maximum signal occurring when both codified factors are set at level +1. It was also found that, for most of the pharmaceuticals, interface voltage influences the intensity of the instrument more than the nebulizing gas flowrate. The only exceptions refer to nimesulide where the relative importance of the factors is reversed and still salicylic acid where both factors equally influence the instrumental signal. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Efecto determinante de la motivación de viaje sobre la imagen de destino en turistas de ocio a un destino urbano: El caso de Monterrey, México. Una aproximación por medio de mínimos cuadrados parciales (PLS) = Determinant effect of travel motivation on the destination image of leisure tourist in an urban destination: the case of Monterrey, México. An approach through partial least squares (PLS)

Los turistas urbanos se caracterizan por ser uno de los segmentos de mayor crecimiento en los mercados turísticos actuales. Monterrey (México), uno de los principales destinos urbanos del país, ha apostado en la actualidad por mejorar su competitividad. Esta investigación se propuso encontrar evidencia acerca de la relación causal de la motivación de viaje sobre la imagen percibida del destino, dos variables importantes por su influencia en la satisfacción de los visitantes. Una revisión de la literatura permitió proponer constructos teóricos integrados en un instrumento para la recogida de datos vía encuesta a una muestra representativa. Por medio del método de regresión y ecuaciones estructurales por mínimos cuadrados parciales (PLS), se identificaron los componentes principales de ambas variables y se obtuvo un modelo explicativo de la imagen percibida del destino en función de la motivación de viaje. Finalmente, se emiten recomendaciones para la gestión del destino urbano en función de los resultados obtenidos. ABSTRACT: Abstract Urban tourists are recognized as one of the fastest growing segments in today’s tourism markets. Monterrey, Mexico, one of the main urban destinations in the country aims at improving its competitiveness. This research work had the purpose of finding evidence on the causal relationship between travel motivation and destination image, two important variables because of their influence on visitors’ satisfaction. A literature review enabled the proposal of a research instrument with theoretically based constructs to gather data through survey from a representative sample. Using regression and structural equations modelling by partial least squares (pls) a set of main components of both variables were identified thus enabling the obtention of a explanatory model of destination image in terms of travel motivations. Finally based on the results some recommendations of tourism management are given.

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

A demand-driven analysis of tourist accommodation price: A quantile regression of room bookings

Tourist accommodation expenditure is a widely investigated topic as it represents a major contribution to the total tourist expenditure. The identification of the determinant factors is commonly based on supply-driven applications while little research has been made on important travel characteristics. This paper proposes a demand-driven analysis of tourist accommodation price by focusing on data generated from room bookings. The investigation focuses on modeling the relationship between key travel characteristics and the price paid to book the accommodation. To accommodate the distributional characteristics of the expenditure variable, the analysis is based on the estimation of a quantile regression model. The findings support the econometric approach used and enable the elaboration of relevant managerial implications.

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

BACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.