The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

Internet share of advertising expenditure : growth drivers and inhibitors in the brazilian market

Os investimentos com publicidade na Internet como uma percentagem das despesas totais de publicidade variam significativamente de um país para outro. O número é tão baixo quanto 4,7% no mercado brasileiro e tão alto como 28,5% no mercado britânico (ZenithOptimedia, 2011b). Algumas razões explicam tal disparidade. No nível macro, a participação dos gastos com publicidade na Internet está fortemente ligada a variáveis como o produto interno bruto per capita e à penetração da Internet na população. No nível micro, uma pesquisa qualitativa foi feita para identificar os fatores que contribuem e inibem o crescimento da participação da publicidade online no mercado brasileiro. A vasta lista de inibidores parece ter profundo impacto sobre como os profissionais de mercado tomar decisões de alocação de investimento em publicidade por tipo de mídia. Devido à legislação, à auto-regulamentação e às dinâmicas da indústria, grande parte da tomada de decisão é realizada por agências de publicidade. Estas parecem ter fortes incentivos econômicos para selecionar outros tipos de mídia e não a Internet ao definir planos de mídia. Ao mesmo tempo, a legislação e a auto-regulamentação fornecem desincentivos para corretores de mídia a operar no mercado local. A falta de profissionais qualificados e a padronização limitada também desempenham papéis importante para inibir uma maior participação da Internet nos gastos com publicidade no Brasil. A convergência dos resultados quantitativos com os qualitativos indica possíveis motivos pelos quais a participação da publicidade online no Brasil é tão baixa. Em primeiro lugar, a participação é explicada pelo estágio de desenvolvimento dos países. Quanto mais rico e mais desenvolvido um país, maior a proporção de gastos com publicidade online tende a ser. Em segundo lugar, o estágio econômico emergente do Brasil potencialmente dá espaço para o aumento do ineficiências do mercado, tais como programas de descontos oferecidos de forma desproporcional para os principais decisores de alocação de investimentos de mídia. Este fato aparentemente produz um feedback negativo, contribuindo para manter a baixa participação da publicidade online no total dos investimentos publicitários.

High-growth SMEs and the availability of private equity and venture capital in Brazil

This chapter discusses private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) in Brazil. Firstly, it is shown that PE/VC has a strong impact in the Brazilian capital markets, with PE/VC-backed companies representing close to half the amount raised by initial public offerings (IPOs) in the stock exchanges. By examining two of these deals, which involved small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs), it is argued that PE/VC managers have acted as catalysts of the impressive growth rates experienced before these companies entered the stock markets. Indeed, PE/VC firms represent an important segment of the capital market, with specialization to invest in high-growth innovative SMEs. PE/VC managers exercise superior selection, monitoring and governance that mitigate the uncertainty and risks of investing in such companies. Despite its successes in Brazil, PE/VC is still very much restrained by the challenging local economic and institutional environment. Thus, changes in the legal and fiscal system, simplification in bureaucratic procedures, and other such improvements will most likely result in a sensible growth in the Brazilian PE/VC industry, with positive impact in the SME access to finance in Brazil. Since most countries in Latin America share similar economic and institutional traits with Brazil, the path followed by the local PE/VC industry can serve as an example for other countries to learn with its successes and failures.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Growth retardants on development and ornamental quality of potted 'Lilliput' Zinnia elegans Jacq.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Children's Perspectives on their Economic Activity as a Pathway to Resilience

When viewed in the context of children's physical, social, and economic ecologies, children's work has both contextually specific benefits and consequences. This paper examines children's experiences of their economic activity using a theory of resilience as a contextually and culturally embedded phenomenon [British Journal of Social Work, 38 (2008) 218]. Though there is evidence that child labour is a potential threat to children's well-being, some forms of children's work may function as potential sources of health-enhancing resources associated with resilience, resulting in positive psychosocial development. Working children can find through their working experiences positive sources of efficacy and cohesion, strong identity, feelings of well-being, positive relationships, and access to material and social capital. (C) 2009 The Author(s). Journal compilation (C) 2009 National Children's Bureau and Blackwell Publishing Limited.

The limits of human development and the use of energy and natural resources

The development of nations is an unquestionable requirement. A lot of challenges concerning health, education and economy are present. A discussion on these development models has occupied the minds of decision makers in recent years. When energy supply and demand is considered, the situation becomes critical and the crucial question is: how to improve the quality of life of developing countries based on available models of development that are related to the life style of developed countries, for which the necessary use and waste of energy are present? How much energy is essential to humanity for not so as to endangering the survival conditions of future generations? the human development index (HDI) establishes the relationship among energy use, economic growth and social growth. Here it can be seen that 75% of the world population has a significant energy consumption potential. This is a strong reason to consider that the sustainable development concepts on energy policies are strategic to the future of the planet. This paper deals with the importance of seeking alternative development models for human development balance, natural resources conservation and environment through rational energy use concepts. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polysaccharide fraction of Agaricus brasiliensis avoids tumor-induced IL-10 production and changes the microenvironment of subcutaneous Ehrlich adenocarcinoma

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Metalloproteinases 2 and-9 activity during promotion and progression stages of rat liver carcinogenesis

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The impact of different types of physical activity on total and regional bone mineral density in young Brazilian athletes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Critical points in logistic growth curves and treatment comparisons

Several biological phenomena have a behavior over time mathematically characterized by a strong increasing function in the early stages of development, then by a less pronounced growth, sometimes showing stability. The separation between these phases is very important to the researcher, since the maintenance of a less productive phase results in uneconomical activity. In this report we present methods of determining critical points in logistic functions that separate the early stages of growth from the asymptotic phase, with the aim of establishing a stopping critical point in the growth and on this basis determine differences in treatments. The logistic growth model is fitted to experimental data of imbibition of arariba seeds (Centrolobium tomentosum). To determine stopping critical points the following methods were used: i) accelerating growth function, ii) tangent at the inflection point, iii) segmented regression; iv) modified segmented regression; v) non-significant difference; and vi) non-significant difference by simulation. The analysis of variance of the abscissas and ordinates of the breakpoints was performed with the objective of comparing treatments and methods used to determine the critical points. The methods of segmented regression and of the tangent at the inflection point lead to early stopping points, in comparison with other methods, with proportions ordinate/asymptote lower than 0.90. The non-significant difference method by simulation had higher values of abscissas for stopping point, with an average proportion ordinate/asymptote equal to 0.986. An intermediate proportion of 0.908 was observed for the acceleration function method.

Growth hormone and heart failure: Oxidative stress and energetic metabolism in rats

Several evidences point for beneficial effects of growth hormone (GH) in heart failure (HF). Taking into account that HF is related with changes in myocardial oxidative stress and in energy generation from metabolic pathways, it is important to clarify whether GH increase or decrease myocardial oxidative stress and what is its effect on energetic metabolism in HF condition. Thus, this study investigated the effects of two different doses of GH on energetic metabolism and oxidative stress in myocardium of rats with HF. Male Wistar rats (n = 25) were submitted to aortic stenosis (AS). The HF was evidenced by tachypnea and echocardiographic criteria around 28 weeks of AS. The rats were then randomly divided into three groups: (HF) with HF, treated with saline (0.9% NaCl); (HF-GHI), treated with 1 mk/kg/day recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH), and (HF-GH2) treated with 2 mg/kg/day rhGH. GH was injected, subcutaneously, daily for 2 weeks. A control group (sham; n = 12), with the same age of the others rats was evaluated to confirm data for AS. HF had lower IGF-I (insulin-like growth factor-I) than sham-operated rats, and both GH treatments normalized IGF-I level. HF-GH1 animals had lower lipid hydroperoxide (LH), LH/total antioxidant substances (TAS) and glutathione-reductase than HF. Glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px), hydroxyacyl coenzyme-A dehydrogenase, lactate dehydrogenase(LDH) were higher in HF-GH1 than in HF. HF-GH2 compared with HF, had increased LH/TAS ratio, as well as decreased oxidized glutathione and LDH activity. Comparing the two GH doses, GSH-Px, superoxide dismutase and LDH were lower in HF-GH2 than in HF-GHI. In conclusion, GH effects were dose-dependent and both tested doses did not aggravate the heart dysfunction. The higher GH dose, 2 mg/kg exerted detrimental effects related to energy metabolism and oxidative stress. The lower dose, 1 mg/kg GH exerted beneficial effects enhancing antioxidant defences, reducing oxidative stress and improving energy generation in myocardium of rats with heart failure. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.