923 resultados para Quantile regressions


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Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

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The use of bone mineral density (BMD) for fracture discrimination may be improved by considering bone microarchitecture. Texture parameters such as trabecular bone score (TBS) or mean Hurst parameter (H) could help to find women who are at high risk of fracture in the non-osteoporotic group. The purpose of this study was to combine BMD and microarchitectural texture parameters (spine TBS and calcaneus H) for the detection of osteoporotic fractures. Two hundred and fifty five women had a lumbar spine (LS), total hip (TH), and femoral neck (FN) DXA. Additionally, texture analyses were performed with TBS on spine DXA and with H on calcaneus radiographs. Seventy-nine women had prevalent fragility fractures. The association with fracture was evaluated by multivariate logistic regressions. The diagnostic value of each parameter alone and together was evaluated by odds ratios (OR). The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were assessed in models including BMD, H, and TBS. Women were also classified above and under the lowest tertile of H or TBS according to their BMD status. Women with prevalent fracture were older and had lower TBS, H, LS-BMD, and TH-BMD than women without fracture. Age-adjusted ORs were 1.66, 1.70, and 1.93 for LS, FN, and TH-BMD, respectively. Both TBS and H remained significantly associated with fracture after adjustment for age and TH-BMD: OR 2.07 [1.43; 3.05] and 1.47 [1.04; 2.11], respectively. The addition of texture parameters in the multivariate models didn't show a significant improvement of the ROC-AUC. However, women with normal or osteopenic BMD in the lowest range of TBS or H had significantly more fractures than women above the TBS or the H threshold. We have shown the potential interest of texture parameters such as TBS and H in addition to BMD to discriminate patients with or without osteoporotic fractures. However, their clinical added values should be evaluated relative to other risk factors.

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Background: Previous studies have shown that immigrant workers face relatively worse working and employment conditions, as well as lower rates of sickness absence than native-born workers. This study aims to assess rates of sickness presenteeism in a sample of Spanish-born and foreign-born workers according to different characteristics. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst a convenience sample of workers (Spanish-born and foreign-born), living in four Spanish cities: Barcelona, Huelva, Madrid and Valencia (2008-2009). Sickness presenteeism information was collected through two items in the questionnaire ("Have you had health problems in the last year?" and "Have you ever had to miss work for any health problem?") and was defined as worker who had a health problem (answered yes, first item) and had not missed work (answered no, second item). For the analysis, the sample of 2,059 workers (1,617 foreign-born) who answered yes to health problems was included. After descriptives, logistic regressions were used to establish the association between origin country and sickness presenteeism (adjusted odds ratios aOR; 95% confidence interval 95%CI). Analyses were stratified per time spent in Spain among foreign-born workers. Results: All of the results refer to the comparison between foreign-born and Spanish-born workers as a whole, and in some categories relating to personal and occupational conditions. Foreign-born workers were more likely to report sickness presenteeism compared with their Spanish-born counterparts, especially those living in Spain for under 2 years [Prevalence: 42% in Spanish-born and 56.3% in Foreign-born; aOR 1.77 95%CI 1.24-2.53]. In case of foreign-born workers (with time in Spain < 2 years), men [aOR 2.31 95%CI 1.40-3.80], those with university studies [aOR 3.01 95%CI 1.04-8.69], temporary contracts [aOR 2.26 95%CI 1.29-3.98] and salaries between 751-1,200€ per month [aOR 1.74 95% CI 1.04-2.92] were more likely to report sickness presenteeism. Also, recent immigrants with good self-perceived health and good mental health were more likely to report presenteeism than Spanish-born workers with the same good health indicators. Conclusions: Immigrant workers report more sickness presenteeism than their Spanish-born counterparts. These results could be related to precarious work and employment conditions of immigrants. Immigrant workers should benefit from the same standards of social security, and of health and safety in the workplace that are enjoyed by Spanish workers.

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This paper investigates the micro and macro-level factors affecting the empirical association between occupational sex-composition and individual earnings. This is done in two analytical steps using data from the second round of the European Social Survey. In a first step, country-fixed-effects regressions are used to test the extent to which job-specialization, gender attitudes and the relative supply of domestic work can account for the impact of occupational sex-composition on earnings. In accordance with previous research, it is found that all these micro-level variables have a significant effect on the analyzed association, yet only job-specialization can explain it away by itself. In a second analytical step, macro-level interactions are tested under the hypothesis that defamilialization policies reduce the pay-offs of sphere specialization by sex, generating incentives for all types of women to invest in the labor market. Empirical results suggest that gender attitudes and the relative supply of housework are much more loosely associated to earning in social-democratic and former communist societies than in conservative or liberal regimes. This finding is interpreted as consistent with the defamilialization hypothesis.

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BACKGROUND: Migration is considered a depression risk factor when associated with psychosocial adversity, but its impact on depression's clinical characteristics has not been specifically studied. We compared 85 migrants to 34 controls, examining depression's severity, symptomatology, comorbidity profile and clinical course. METHOD: A MINI interview modified to assess course characteristics was used to assign DSM-IV axis I diagnoses; medical files were used for Somatoform Disorders. Severity was assessed with the Montgomery-Asberg scale. Wherever possible, we adjusted comparisons for age and gender using logistic and linear regressions. RESULTS: Depression in migrants was characterized by higher comorbidity (mostly somatoform and anxiety disorders), higher severity, and a non-recurrent, chronic course. LIMITATIONS: Our sample comes from a single center, and should be replicated in other health care facilities and other countries. Somatoform disorder diagnoses were solely based on file-content. CONCLUSION: Depression in migrants presented as a complex, chronic clinical picture. Most of our migrant patients experienced significant psychosocial adversity before and after migration: beyond cultural issues, our results suggest that psychosocial adversity impacts on the clinical expression of depression. Our study also suggests that migration associated with psychosocial adversity might play a specific etiological role, resulting in a distinct clinical picture, questioning the DSM-IV unitarian model of depression. The chronic course might indicate a resistance to standard therapeutic regimen and hints at the necessity of developing specific treatment strategies, adapted to the individual patients and their specific context.

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This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

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Biofuels are becoming an alternative to non-renewable energy sources but we know little about the economic mechanisms influencing their prices. This paper studies the interrelationships between the spot prices of oil and those of agricultural commodities used as biofuel feedstocks. Using daily data since 1988, we identify a co-movement after 2005 that does not appear for other food-related commodities and is not due to general economic variables. We also find traces of the co-movement in the prices of a large biofuel stock. The results amount to the first systematic piece of empirical evidence linking spot oil and agricultural markets via the emergence of biofuels.

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We report a boy, referred at 25 months following a dramatic isolated language regression antedating autistic-like symptomatology. His sleep electroencephalogram (EEG) showed persistent focal epileptiform activity over the left parietal and vertex areas never associated with clinical seizures. He was started on adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) with a significant improvement in language, behavior, and in EEG discharges in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. Later course was characterized by fluctuations/regressions in language and behavior abilities, in phase with recrudescence of EEG abnormalities prompting additional ACTH courses that led to remarkable decrease in EEG abnormalities, improvement in language, and to a lesser degree, in autistic behavior. The timely documentation of regression episodes suggesting an "atypical" autistic regression, striking therapy-induced improvement, fluctuation of symptomatology over time could be ascribed to recurrent and persisting EEG abnormalities.

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General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

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PURPOSE: Bio-psychosocial characteristics of patients after orthopaedic traumas may be a strong predictor of poor outcome. The objective of this prospective study was to assess whether the INTERMED, a measure of bio-psychosocial complexity, identifies complex inpatients during rehabilitation including vocational aspects with a poor outcome 1 year after discharge. METHOD: At entry, the INTERMED scores of 118 inpatients were used to assign patients to the high or low complexity group. A questionnaire evaluated 1 year after discharge whether patients: (1) returned to work, (2) still have therapies, (3) take psychoactive drugs, (4) take medication against pain and (5) were satisfied with vocational therapy. Univariate logistic regressions identified which variables predict INTERMED case complexity during hospitalisation as well as predictors (i.e. INTERMED case complexity, French as preferred language, duration of the disability, accident at work, work qualification, severity of the injury, psychiatric co-morbidities, pain) of the five measured outcomes 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: During hospitalisation, the high complexity group was associated with a high prevalence of psychiatric co-morbidities, a higher level of pain and a weaker perception of treatment effects. One year after discharge, the INTERMED was the sole variable to predict all outcomes. CONCLUSION: The INTERMED identifies complex patients during vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma and is a good predictor of poor outcome 1 year after discharge.

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Re-licensing requirements for professionals that move across borders arewidespread. In this paper, we measure the returns to an occupationallicense using novel data on Soviet trained physicians that immigrated toIsrael. An immigrant re-training assignment rule used by the IsraelMinistry of Health provides an exogenous source of variation inre-licensing outcomes. Instrumental variables and quantile treatmenteffects estimates of the returns to an occupational license indicate excesswages due to occupational entry restrictions and negative selectioninto licensing status. We develop a model of optimal license acquisitionwhich suggests that the wages of high-skilled immigrant physicians in thenonphysician sector outweigh the lower direct costs that these immigrantsface in acquiring a medical license. Licensing thus leads to lower averagequality of service. However, the positive earnings effect of entry restrictionsfar outweighs the lower practitioner quality earnings effect that licensinginduces.

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Introduction: Pain and beliefs have an influence on the patient's course in rehabilitation, pain causes fears and fears influence pain perception. The aim of this study is to understand pain and beliefs evolutions during rehabilitation taking into account of bio-psycho-social complexity.Patients and methods: 631 consecutive patients admitted in rehabilitation after a musculoskeletal traumatism were included and assessed at admission and at discharge. Pain was measured by VAS (Visual Analogical Scale), bio-psycho-social complexity by Intermed scale, and beliefs by judgement on Lickert scales. Four kinds of beliefs were evaluated: fear of a severe origin of pain, fear of movement, fear of pain and feeling of distress (loss of control). The association between the changes in pain and beliefs during the hospitalization was assessed by linear regressions.Results: After adjustment for gender, age, education and native language, patients with a decrease in pain during rehabilitation have higher probability of decreasing their fears. For the distress feeling, this relationship is weaker among bio-psycho-socially complex patients (odds-ratio 1.22 for each decreasing of 10mm/100 VAS) than among non-complex patients (OR 1.47). Patients with a pain decrease of 30% or more during hospitalization have higher probability of seeing their fears decrease, this relationship being stronger in complex patient for fear of a severe origin of pain.Discussion: The relationships between evolution of pain and beliefs move in the same direction. The higher a patient feels pain, the less they could be able to modify their dysfunctional beliefs. When the pain diminishes of 30% or more, the probability to challenge the beliefs is increased. The prognostic with regard to feeling of distress and fear of a severe origin of pain, is worse among bio-psycho-socially complex patients.

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Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the patterns of host plant utilization by herbivorous insects in natural communities. We tested four hypotheses aiming to understand the pattern of attack by gall-inducing insects on the dioecious shrub, Baccharis pseudomyriocephala (Asteraceae). The shrub occurs in the Parque Estadual do Itacolomi, Southeastern Brazil, and supports ten species of galling insects. The following hypotheses were tested: i) male plants are more attacked by galling insects than female plants; ii) larger plant modules are preferentially attacked by galling insects; iii) galling insects perform better on larger modules than on smaller modules; iv) galling insects increase in abundance with meristematic availability. To address these questions, 240 plants (120 of each sex) were sampled in both reproductive and vegetative periods. We recorded the growth rate (4 cm), inflorescence and fruit production, attack rates of the galling insects, and their survivorship and mortality per shoot (module). Modules were separated into size classes (cm) and analyzed by regressions and ANCOVAs. Module size and reproductive effort were positively correlated with host plant size. We did not observe any effect of host plant gender on either variables. In the same way, host plant sex did not show any influence on the abundance and richness of galling insects. Although the abundance of galling insects showed a positive correlation with shoot size, the trend disappeared when the analyses were performed taking into consideration the number of galls per unit of growth (number of galls/cm of shoot) or biomass (number of galls/dry weight). Larval survivorship was not influenced by shoot size. Also, we observed that the abundance of one species of hemipteran galling insect showed a positive relation with leaf biomass. Therefore, we conclude that gender and vigor of this plant species do not influence the community structure of its galling herbivores.

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OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between patients' body mass index (BMI) and their experiences with inpatient care. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. Mail survey. SETTING: University Hospital of Geneva. PARTICIPANTS: Questionnaires were mailed to 2385 eligible adult patients, 6 weeks after discharge (response rate = 69%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patients' experiences with care were measured using the Picker inpatient survey questionnaire. BMI was calculated using self-reported height and weight. Main dependent variables were the global Picker patient experience (PPE-15) score and nine dimension-specific problem scores, scored from 0 (no reported problems) to 1 (all items coded as problems). We used linear regressions, adjusting for age, gender, education, subjective health, smoking and hospitalization, to assess the association between patients' BMI and their experiences with inpatient care. RESULTS: Of the patients, 4.8% were underweight, 50.8% had normal weight, 30.3% were overweight and 14.1% were obese. Adjusted analysis shows that compared with normal weight, obesity was significantly associated with fewer problematic items in the surgery-related information domain, and being underweight or overweight was associated with more problematic items in the involvement of family/friends domain. The global PPE-15 score was significantly higher (more problems) for underweight patients. CONCLUSIONS: Underweight patients, but not obese patients, reported more problems during hospitalization.

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BACKGROUND: Three non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (Q223R, K109R and K656N) of the leptin receptor gene (LEPR) have been tested for association with obesity-related outcomes in multiple studies, showing inconclusive results. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on the association of the three LEPR variants with BMI. In addition, we analysed 15 SNPs within the LEPR gene in the CoLaus study, assessing the interaction of the variants with sex. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched electronic databases, including population-based studies that investigated the association between LEPR variants Q223R, K109R and K656N and obesity- related phenotypes in healthy, unrelated subjects. We furthermore performed meta-analyses of the genotype and allele frequencies in case-control studies. Results were stratified by SNP and by potential effect modifiers. CoLaus data were analysed by logistic and linear regressions and tested for interaction with sex. The meta-analysis of published data did not show an overall association between any of the tested LEPR variants and overweight. However, the choice of a BMI cut-off value to distinguish cases from controls was crucial to explain heterogeneity in Q223R. Differences in allele frequencies across ethnic groups are compatible with natural selection of derived alleles in Q223R and K109R and of the ancient allele in K656N in Asians. In CoLaus, the rs10128072, rs3790438 and rs3790437 variants showed interaction with sex for their association with overweight, waist circumference and fat mass in linear regressions. CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic review and analysis of primary data from the CoLaus study did not show an overall association between LEPR SNPs and overweight. Most studies were underpowered to detect small effect sizes. A potential effect modification by sex, population stratification, as well as the role of natural selection should be addressed in future genetic association studies.