A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: observations and projected changes

The Arctic has undergone substantial changes over the last few decades in various cryospheric and derivative systems and processes. Of these, the Arctic sea ice regime has seen some of the most rapid change and is one of the most visible markers of Arctic change outside the scientific community. This has drawn considerable attention not only from the natural sciences, but increasingly, from the political and commercial sectors as they begin to grapple with the problems and opportunities that are being presented. The possible impacts of past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice, especially as it relates to climatic response, are of particular interest and have been the subject of increasing research activity. A review of the current knowledge of the role of sea ice in the climate system is therefore timely. We present a review that examines both the current state of understanding, as regards the impacts of sea-ice loss observed to date, and climate model projections, to highlight hypothesised future changes and impacts on storm tracks and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Within the broad climate-system perspective, the topics of storminess and large-scale variability will be specifically considered. We then consider larger-scale impacts on the climatic system by reviewing studies that have focused on the interaction between sea-ice extent and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Finally, an overview of the representation of these topics in the literature in the context of IPCC climate projections is presented. While most agree on the direction of Arctic sea-ice change, the rates amongst the various projections vary greatly. Similarly, the response of storm tracks and climate variability are uncertain, exacerbated possibly by the influence of other factors. A variety of scientific papers on the relationship between sea-ice changes and atmospheric variability have brought to light important aspects of this complex topic. Examples are an overall reduction in the number of Arctic winter storms, a northward shift of mid-latitude winter storms in the Pacific and a delayed negative NAO-like response in autumn/winter to a reduced Arctic sea-ice cover (at least in some months). This review paper discusses this research and the disagreements, bringing about a fresh perspective on this issue.

Effects of utterance length on lip kinematics in aphasia

Most existing models of language production and speech motor control do not explicitly address how language requirements affect speech motor functions, as these domains are usually treated as separate and independent from one another. This investigation compared lip movements during bilabial closure between five individuals with mild aphasia and five age and gender-matched control speakers when the linguistic characteristics of the stimuli were varied by increasing the number of syllables. Upper and lower lip movement data were collected for mono-, bi- and tri-syllabic nonword sequences using an AG 100 EMMA system. Each task was performed under both normal and fast rate conditions. Single articulator kinematic parameters (peak velocity, amplitude, duration,and cyclic spatio-temporal index) were measured to characterize lip movements. Results revealed that compared to control speakers, individuals with aphasia showed significantly longer movement duration and lower movement stability for longer items (bi- and tri-syllables). Moreover, utterance length affected the lip kinematics, in that the monosyllables had smaller peak velocities, smaller amplitudes and shorter durations compared to bi- and trisyllables, and movement stability was lowest for the trisyllables. In addition, the rate-induced changes (smaller amplitude and shorter duration with increased rate) were most prominent for the short items (i.e., monosyllables). These findings provide further support for the notion that linguistic changes have an impact on the characteristics of speech movements, and that individuals with aphasia are more affected by such changes than control speakers.

Large-scale length and time scales for use with stochastic convective parameterization

Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength.

The effect of the spacer length on the nature of coupling in side chain liquid crystals polymers and elastomers

Side chain liquid crystal polymers and elastomers exhibit a rich phase behaviour which arises from the antagonistic influences of the entropically disordered polymer chain configuration and the long range orientational ordering of the mesogenic units. This competition arises since the natural macroscopic phase separation is inhibited by the inherent chemical connectivity of the system. At the heart of this connectivity is the spacer link and we consider here its influence on the phase behaviour. In particular we consider a series of elastomers in which the number of alkyl units in the spacer is systematically varied from 2 to 6. The lengthening of the coupling spacer is accompanied by an alternation of the sign of coupling between the polymer chain and the mesogenic unit. These results demonstrate the dominating influence of the so-called hinge effect in determining the phase behaviour. In addition to the alternation of the sign there is some decrease in the magnitude of the coupling with increasing spacer length.

Side-chain liquid crystalline elastomers: the relationship between the orientational ordering of the polymer backbone and the length of the coupling chain

The influence of cross-linking on the phase behaviour of a series of side-chain liquid crystalline elastomers has been studied. For samples cross-linked in the temperature range corresponding to the nematic phase, the phase transition was shifted compared to that observed when an identical sample was cross-linked in the isotropic phase. This shift represented a stabilisation of the nematic phase in the former case, in line with theoretical expectations. By utilising a novel, slow cross-linking method, which allows the polymer backbone to take up an equilibrium conformation prior to network formation, it proved possible to monitor the shifts in phase transition temperature as a function of the length of the methylene chain coupling the mesogenic units to the polymer backbone. The results obtained are related to the backbone anisotropy and indicate that the level of orientational order of the polymer in the nematic phase backbone increases with a reduction in the length of the coupling chain.

Enhancing the catalytic repertoire of nucleic acids: a systematic study of linker length and rigidity

The incorporation of potentially catalytic groups in DNA is of interest for the in vitro selection of novel deoxyribozymes, A series of 10 C5-modified analogues of 2'-deoxyuridine triphosphate have been synthesised that possess side chains of differing flexibility and bearing a primary amino or imidazole functionality, For each series of nucleotide analogues differing degrees of flexibility of the C5 side chain was achieved through the use of alkynyl, alkenyl and alkyl moieties, The imidazole function was conjugated to these CS-amino-modified nucleotides using either imidazole 4-acetic acid or imidazole 4-acrylic acid (urocanic acid), The substrate properties of the nucleotides (fully replacing dTTP) with Taq polymerase during PCR have been investigated in order to evaluate their potential applications for in vitro selection experiments, 5-(3-Aminopropynyl)dUTP and 5-(E-3-aminopropenyl)dUTP and their imidazole 4-acetic acid- and urocanic acid-modified conjugates were found to be substrates, In contrast, C5-amino-modified dUTPs with alkane or Z-alkene linkers and their corresponding conjugates were not substrates, The incorporation of these analogues during PCR has been confirmed by inhibition of restriction enzyme digestion using XbaI and by mass spectrometry of the PCR products.

What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

The role of phase separation and feed cycle length in leach beds coupled to methanogenic reactors for digestion of a solid substrate (Part 2): Hydrolysis, acidification and methanogenesis in a two-phase system

The effect of phase separation and batch duration on the trophic stages of anaerobic digestion was assessed for the first time in leach beds coupled to methanogenic reactors digesting maize (Zea mays). The system was operated for consecutive batches of 7, 14 and 28 days for ~120 days. Hydrolysis rate was higher the shorter the batch, reaching 8.5 gTSdestroyed d-1 in the 7-day system. Phase separation did not affect acidification but methanogenesis was enhanced in the short feed cycle leach beds. Phase separation was inefficient on the 7-day system, where ~89% of methane was produced in the leach bed. Methane production rate increased with shortening the feed cycle, reaching 3.523 l d-1 average in the 7-day system. Low strength leachate from the leach beds decreased methanogenic activity of methanogenic reactors’ sludges. Enumeration of cellulolytic and methanogenic microorganisms indicated a constant inoculation of leach beds and methanogenic reactors through leachate recirculation.

The role of phase separation and feed cycle length in leach beds coupled to methanogenic reactors for digestion of a solid substrate (Part 1): Optimisation of reactors’ performance

A two-phase system composed by a leach bed and a methanogenic reactor was modified for the first time to improve volumetric substrate degradation and methane yields from a complex substrate (maize; Zea mays). The system, which was operated for consecutive feed cycles of different durations for 120 days, was highly flexible and its performance improved by altering operational conditions. Daily substrate degradation was higher the shorter the feed cycle, reaching 8.5 g TSdestroyed d�1 (7-day feed cycle) but the overall substrate degradation was higher by up to 55% when longer feed cycles (14 and 28 days) were applied. The same occurred with volumetric methane yields, reaching 0.839 m3 (m3)�1 d�1. The system performed better than others on specific methane yields, reaching 0.434 m3 kg�1 TSadded, in the 14-day and 28-day systems. The UASB and AF designs performed similarly as second stage reactors on methane yields, SCOD and VFA removal efficiencies.

Restriction fragment length polymorphism of polymerase chain reaction products applied to the differentiation of poultry campylobacters for epidemiological investigations

A technique for subtyping Camplobacter jejuni isolates has been developed by using the restriction fragment length polymorphism (Rnp) of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products of the fluA and flaB genes. The technique was validated by using strains representing 28 serotypes of C jejuni and it may also be applied to C coli. From these strains 12 distinct RFLP profiles were observed but there was no direct relationship between the RFLP profile and the serotype. One hundred and thirty-five campylobacter isolates from 15 geographically distinct broiler flocks were investigated. All the isolates could be subtyped by using the RFLP method. Isolates from most of the flocks had a single RFLP profile despite data indicating that several serotypes were involved. Although it is possible that further restriction analysis may have demonstrated profile variations in these strains, it is more likely that antigenic variation can occur within genotypically related campylobacters. As a result, serotyping may give conflicting information for veterinary epidemiological purposes. This RFLP typing scheme appears to provide a suitable tool for the investigation of the sources and routes of transmission of campylobacters in chickens.

How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?

Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability.

Optimal frame length for keeping normalized goodput with lowest requirement on BER

This paper presents an adaptive frame length mechanism based on a cross-layer analysis of intrinsic relations between the MAC frame length, bit error rate (BER) of the wireless link and normalized goodput. The proposed mechanism selects the optimal frame length that keeps the service normalized goodput at required levels while satisfying the lowest requirement on the BER, thus increasing the transmission reliability. Numerical results are provided and show that an optimal frame length satisfying the lowest BER requirement does indeed exist. The performance of BER requirement as a function of the MAC frame length is evaluated and compared for transmission scenarios with and without automatic repeat request (ARQ). Furthermore, issues related to the MAC overhead length are also discussed to illuminate the functionality and performance of the proposed mechanism.

On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region

The occurrence of destructive mesoscale ‘polar low’ cyclones in the subpolar North Atlantic is projected to decline under anthropogenic change, due to an increase in atmospheric static stability. This letter reports on the role of changes in ocean circulation in shaping the atmospheric stability. In particular, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken in response to anthropogenic forcing, leading to a local minimum in warming in this region. The reduced warming is restricted to the lower troposphere, hence contributing to the increase in static stability. Linear correlation analysis of the CMIP3 climate model ensemble suggests that around half of the model uncertainty in the projected stability response arises from the varied response of the AMOC between models.

Mixing length controls on high resolution simulations of convective storms

We perform simulations of several convective events over the southern UK with the Met Office Unified Model (UM) at horizontal grid lengths ranging from 1.5 km to 200 m. Comparing the simulated storms on these days with the Met Office rainfall radar network allows us to apply a statistical approach to evaluate the properties and evolution of the simulated storms over a range of conditions. Here we present results comparing the storm morphology in the model and reality which show that the simulated storms become smaller as grid length decreases and that the grid length that fits the observations best changes with the size of the observed cells. We investigate the sensitivity of storm morphology in the model to the mixing length used in the subgrid turbulence scheme. As the subgrid mixing length is decreased, the number of small storms with high area-averaged rain rates increases. We show that by changing the mixing length we can produce a lower resolution simulation that produces similar morphologies to a higher resolution simulation.