Otimização da anisotropia fronto-calosa e ressonância magnética [1,5T] no idoso normal e com risco cérebro-vascular

RESUMO: Os mais recentes métodos de neuro imagem tal como a Ressonância Magnética (RM) permitiram obter imagens detalhadas do cérebro humano in vivo. Essas imagens revelam, muitas vezes, achados imprevistos face ao padrão normal, com elevada propensão para os indivíduos idosos e franca coexistência com fatores de risco vascular, como característica dum processo de envelhecimento normal. Embora na última década tenham surgido várias publicações sobre este assunto, ele continua ainda pouco explicado. Um pouco por todo o mundo têm emergido os programas de prevenção da doença e promoção da saúde desenvolvidos pela Saúde Pública suportadas sobretudo pelo avanço das tecnologias médicas que resultaram, entre outros impactos, num crescimento da população idosa. Estima-se, em 2030, uma composição demográfica com 20% de indivíduos acima dos 65 anos. Neste contexto, a doença microvascular cerebral é a causa mais frequente de comprometimento cognitivo vascular no idoso sendo as características senescentes na imagem por RM do tipo lesões isquémicas da Substância Branca (Leukoaraiosis) e enfartes lacunares (Status lacunar), atrofia cerebral, gliose e acumulação excessiva de ferro nos núcleos da base. Esta tese, considerando a linha de investigação de que deriva – Ciências da Vida - especialização em Medicina Clinica - Biotecnologia, reúne e reflete sobre três vertentes ligadas à RM e interdependentes em relação a uma problemática comum. A primeira trata da caracterização da Tecnologia por Ressonância Magnética existente em Portugal, a qual inclui uma avaliação exploratória da aplicação da técnica de Difusão Anisotrópica nos estudos cerebrais. As dimensões analíticas estudadas foram a Tecnológica, Sociodemográfica e Económica. Na recolha de dados recorreu-se a várias fontes de informação e a uma metodologia exploratória faseada, validada pela triangulação dos resultados. A sua análise obedeceu a critérios de estratificação e agrupamento segundo as mesmas dimensões analíticas. Otimização da anisotropia fronto-calosa e [RM 1,5T] no idoso normal e com risco cérebro-vascular A segunda descreve o estudo anátomo – radiológico que recaiu sobre parâmetros de quantificação assente na temática do cérebro do idoso em cadáver segundo uma metodologia experimental aplicada às métricas da difusão por RM. Na terceira, e última, é apresentado o estudo técnico - radiológico para avaliação e otimização da imagem ponderada em difusão em estudos clínicos associados ao cérebro do idoso “The Usual Brain Aging” ou Envelhecimento Cerebral Normal, com base metodológica assente nos critérios e indicadores estabelecidos pelo Estudo de Imagem de Roterdão (Rotterdam Scan Study - RSS). Como principais resultados obteve-se que não existem em Portugal estruturas para avaliação dos equipamentos pesados ou Agência de Avaliação das Tecnologias da Saúde para desenvolver o importante papel da produção de estudos comparativos entre os equipamentos disponíveis no mercado, a relação preço-qualidade e a sua afetação às necessidades clínico-epidemiológicas. Constatou-se que a implementação de equipamentos de RM está fortemente assente em critérios económicos carecendo de recomendações e diretivas para o uso racionalizado destas tecnologias. Quanto a dados quantitativos concluímos que a maioria dos equipamentos está instalada em instituições privadas (80,2%); a intensidade de campo magnético mais frequente é [1,5T] com 119 equipamentos; os equipamentos estão instalados maioritariamente nos distritos de Lisboa (55 unidades) e do Porto (39 unidades); o rácio médio de equipamentos por habitante em Portugal é de 1 para 65 195 habitantes; a amplitude de gradientes com maior expressão na amostra é 30-39mT/m; a maioria dos equipamentos foi instalada no intervalo temporal [2009-2012] com 59 equipamentos; apenas 6 instituições desenvolvem investigação clinica e a maioria das bobinas para estudos de crânio são do tipo Array. O estudo de otimização da técnica da difusão revelou, quanto à avaliação dos valoresb, que os mais baixos (b=500 s/mm2 e b=1000 s/mm2), apresentam maior IS e SNR sendo esta uma boa medida referente à qualidade de imagem, no entanto, os valores-b mais elevados (b=2000 s/mm2) apresentam maior CNR e CR, face aos anteriores, o Otimização da anisotropia fronto-calosa e [RM 1,5T] no idoso normal e com risco cérebro-vascular que apesar de proporcionar inferior detalhe anatómico e consequentemente inferior qualidade de imagem, num encéfalo normal, pode auxiliar na interpretação e apresentar vantagens na identificação de lesões microvasculares sempre que persistirem dúvidas em relação ao diagnóstico diferencial de doença microvascular do tipo status lacunar ou Hiperintensidades da Substância Branca. As alterações deste parâmetro são particularmente refletidas nas diferenças da avaliação da qualidade de imagem na região fronto-calos Concluímos da avaliação quantitativa da concentração média de ferro (26Fe) em todas as faixas etárias que os núcleos da base que apresentam maior concentração são, por ordem decrescente: Substância Nigra, Globus Pallidus, Putamen, Tálamo, Núcleo Rubro e Núcleo Caudado; que existe uma predominância na concentração de ferro (26Fe) no hemisfério esquerdo e que os indivíduos do género masculino apresentam mais ferro (26Fe) que os do género feminino nas faixas etárias [30-40[, [40-50[ e [50-60[. Como principal conclusão do estudo da concentração média de ferro em relação à idade destacamos que a concentração média de ferro (26Fe) é superior nos grupos etários superiores, logo aumenta com a idade, sobretudo na Substância Nigra e no Núcleo Lenticular. No estudo técnico-radiológico encontrámos evidências do aumento da difusibilidade da água na substância branca subcortical dos sujeitos idosos comparativamente aos mais jovens. Uma relação idêntica foi avaliada nos tálamos. O aumento relacionado com a idade parece ser predominantemente observado em doentes com mais de 65 anos de idade o que pode refletir alterações estruturais ligeiras associados ao envelhecimento normal. Os resultados indicam que a análise quantitativa das imagens ponderadas em difusão fornece informações, sobre a estrutura do cérebro, as quai s não estão disponíveis apenas por inspeção visual, tanto nas imagens ponderadas em difusão como em outras sequências de aplicação clínica de rotina. Para fazer face às desvantagens dos sistemas de quantificação das HSB os quais são dispendiosos, complexos, requererem tecnologia e formação específicas, recomendamos que a aplicação automatizada GUIAL, desenvolvida ao longo do nosso trabalho é de utilização elementar e prática para que seja introduzida nos sistemas de aquisição de imagem por RM com o fim de integrar o processamento de imagem nos indivíduos portadores de fatores de risco vascular. A avaliação do ADC, nesta amostra, permitiu concluir que a variação desta variável é explicada estatisticamente pela existência da condição clínica de status lacunar em ambos os hemisférios ou por outras palavras, o status lacunar influencia o valor de ADC. Embora uma pequena percentagem da variação do ADC seja explicada pelo género, o ADC nos homens foi superior ao das mulheres o que não nos surpreende, pois são também os homens onde a frequência de doença microvascular se revelou mais expressiva. Os valores do ADC, globalmente, entre os hemisférios cerebrais não mostraram alterações exceto na SB entre os idosos e não idosos. A SB da região frontal mostrou valores diminuídos na anisotropia e isotropia face às restantes áreas anatómicas. Os estudos indicam que na idade avançada existe uma maior predisposição para suscetibilidades de estrutura com status de desconexão. A classificação das HSB foi superior em indivíduos mais velhos e com status lacunar, e em menor quantidade (inferior rating de classificação) nos indivíduos idosos sem status lacunar. As alterações volumétricas foram mais frequentes no homem do que na mulher, presumivelmente devido à associação com a elevada classificação de status lacunar. Um aumento do índice de Evan correspondeu, neste estudo, ao aumento das HSB, à diminuição do volume cerebral total, à expansão ventrículo-sulcal frontal e ao aumento da medida do ângulo caloso. Estes resultados foram agravados pela classificação elevada de status lacunar nos indivíduos que apresentaram indícios de doença de pequenos vasos, com manifesto aumento dos espaços de Virchow-Robin,enfartes lacunares ou HSB. Esses resultados foram mais expressivos no género masculino do que no feminino revelando uma maior vulnerabilidade sobretudo na atrofia frontal nos homens. Por sua vez as dimensões do Corpo Caloso tornaram-se reduzidas devido à compressão dos ventrículos laterais e terceiro ventrículo. Estes indicadores tiveram expressão particularmente nos indivíduos com mais de 65 anos. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ABSTRACT: The latest neuroimaging methods, such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), have enabled detailed images of in vivo human brain. These images reveal often unexpected findings related to the normal pattern, with high predisposition for the elderly people with forthright coexistence with vascular risk factors such as characteristics of a normal aging process. Although it has been, in the last decade, several publications on this subject, it is still little explained. All over the world have emerged disease prevention programs and health promotion developed by the Public Health sector, supported mainly by the advancement of medical technologies that have resulted, among other impacts, in a growing of the elderly population. It is estimated, in 2030, a demographic composition with 20% o people over 65 years. In this context, microvascular disease is the most common cause of cognitive vascular impairment in the elderly and senescent characteristics in the MRI trough ischemic lesions of the white matter (Leukoaraiosis) and lacunar infarcts (lacunar status), cerebral atrophy, gliosis and iron accumulation in the basal ganglia in excess.This thesis, considering the research line that stems - Life Sciences - specialization in Clinical Medicine, Biotechnology, gathers and reflects on three aspects linked to MR, interdependent and related to a common problem. The first deals with the Magnetic Resonance Technology characterization in Portugal, which includes an exploratory evaluation of the implementation of Anisotropic Diffusion technique in brain studies. The analytical dimensions studied were the Technologic, Socio-demographic and Economics. Collecting data was supported by different sources of information and was applied an exploratory methodology whose results were validated by triangulation. The research method was grouped and stratified criteria under the same analytical dimensions. The second describes the anatomical study - which was focused on radiological measurement parameters, based on the brain’s specimen under an experimental methodology applied to MRI diffusion metrics. Radiological evaluation and optimization of the weighted image diffusion in clinical studies were associated with the brain of the elderly "The Usual Brain Aging" with methodological basis based on established criteria and indicators by Rotterdam Scan Study (RSS). The main results obtained reveal the inexistence frameworks in Portugal for evaluation of equipments or Agency of Health Technology to produce studies comparing the equipment available on the market, the value for money and its allocation to clinical and epidemiological needs. It was found that the implementation of MRI equipment is strongly based on economic criteria lacking recommendations and guidelines for the rationalized use of these technologies. As the quantitative data we conclude that most of the scanners are located in private clinical institutions (80,2%); the most frequent magnetic field intensity is [1.5T] with 119 scanners; the scanners are mainly installed in Lisbon (55 units) and Porto (39 units) districts; the average ratio of equipment per capita in Portugal is 1 to 65 195 people; the gradient power with higher expression in the sample is 30-39mT / m;most of the scanners were installed in the years range [2009-2012 years] with 59 equipment; only 6 clinical placements develop clinical research and the most coils for brain studies are of Array type. The optimization study of diffusion technique revealed, as the assessment of the bvalues, the lower (b = 500 s / mm2 and b = 1000 s / mm 2), promotes an increase in the SI and SNR being this measure related to a higher image quality, however the highest b values (b = 2000 s / mm 2) have a higher CNR (Contrast to Noise-Ratio) and CR (Contrast Ratio), compared to the previous ones. This may provide less anatomical details and, thus, ower image quality, of a normal brain, however can help the interpretation and have advantages in identifying microvascular injuries when doubts persist regarding the differential diagnosis of microvascular disease of lacunar or WMH (White Matter Hyperintensities) status type. Changes on this parameter are Otimização da anisotropia fronto-calosa e [RM 1,5T] no idoso normal e com risco cérebro-vascular particularly reflected in the differences of image quality evaluation in the frontocallosum anatomical area. We conclude from the quantitative assessment of the average concentration of iron (26Fe), in all age groups to the basal ganglia, that the higher concentrations are, in descending order: Nigral Substantia, Globus pallidus, Putamen, Thalamus, Rubio nucleus and Caudate nucleus; that there is a predominance in the concentration of iron (26Fe) in the left hemisphere and that male gender show higher iron (26Fe) level tha females, in the age groups [30-40 [[40-50 [and [50- 60 [. Regarding a main conclusion of the mean concentration study of iron, in terms of age we point out that the average concentration of iron (26Fe) is higher among older groups and increases with age, especially in Nigral Substantia and Lenticular Nucleus. On the technical and radiological study we found evidence of an increased in water /diffusivity in the ubcortical white matter of the elderly compared with younger subjects. A similar relationship was assessed in the Thalamus. The increase agerelated seems to be predominantly observed in patients over 65 years which may reflect minor structural changes associated with normal aging. The results indicate that quantitative analysis of diffusion weighted imaging can provide information about the structure of the brain which is not reached only by visual inspection or standard sequences applied in clinical routine. To address the disadvantages the systems of quantification of WMH which the authors state that are costly, complex, require specific technology and training, we recommend that the automated application GUIAL, developed over our work is basic and practical to use and to be introduced in MR image systems acquisition in order to integrate image processing in patients with vascular risk factors. The evaluation of the ADC showed that its variation is statistically explained by the existence of the medical condition of lacunar status, in both hemispheres, or in other words, the lacunar status influences the ADC value. Although a small percentage of the ADC variation is explained by gender, the ADC in men was higher than women which Otimização da anisotropia fronto-calosa e [RM 1,5T] no idoso normal e com risco cérebro-vascular do not surprise us, since they are also men where the frequency of microvasculardisease has proved more significant. The values of ADC, overall, between the cerebral hemispheres showed no changes but were different in WM among the elderly and non-elderly subjects.The WM's forehead showed decreased values in anisotropy and isotropy face the other anatomical areas. The studies indicate that in old age there is a greater tendency to higher susceptibility to disconnection- status framework. The classification of WMH was higher in elderly people and lacunar status, and fewer (lower classification rating) in the elderly without lacunar status. volumetric changes were more frequent in men than in women, most probably because of its association with high lacunar status rating. An increase of Evan index corresponded, in this study, to an increase in WMH, to a decreased of total brain volume, to a ventricle sulcal frontal and callous angle expansion. These results were wound up by high ranking of lacunar status in subjects who had small vessel disease, clear increase in spaces of Virchow-Robin, lacunar infarctions or WMH. These results were more significant in males than in females revealing vulnerability particularly in the frontal atrophy in men. In turn the size of Corpus Callosum because reduced due to the compression of the lateral and third ventricles. These indicators had expression particularly in individuals over 65 years.

A study on the performance of technology transfer units

Universities are increasingly institutionalizing activities related to technology transfer and one of the main institutional mechanisms that has emerged is the “technology transfer unit” (TTU). Many of them are focusing their activities on the management of the university intellectual property. Studies have investigated factors that seem to affect their performance, but few have looked in detail at internal procedures and techniques that are used in their processes related to technology evaluation and licensing. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of some of the several steps that comprises the processes regarding technology evaluation and licensing, providing an analysis of the critical issues that affect each step of the process. A review of the literature was made, complemented with interviews to seven university TTUs, which was used as a check and a complement to the literature review and as way of perceiving from an insider perspective, the problems and issues that this paper wants to emphasize and to state clearly.

Inkjet printing technology for flexible pressure sensors

Tese de Doutoramento Ciência e Engenharia de Polímeros e Compósitos.

A demonstration case on the derivation of process-level logical architectures for ambient assisted living ecosystems

When representing the requirements for an intended software solution during the development process, a logical architecture is a model that provides an organized vision of how functionalities behave regardless of the technologies to be implemented. If the logical architecture represents an ambient assisted living (AAL) ecosystem, such representation is a complex task due to the existence of interrelated multidomains, which, most of the time, results in incomplete and incoherent user requirements. In this chap- ter, we present the results obtained when applying process-level modeling techniques to the derivation of the logical architecture for a real industrial AAL project. We adopt a V-Model–based approach that expresses the AAL requirements in a process-level perspec- tive, instead of the traditional product-level view. Additionally, we ensure compliance of the derived logical architecture with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) reference architecture as nonfunctional requirements to support the implementa- tion of the AAL architecture in cloud contexts.

Controlo de qualidade e inspeção visual por imagem: definição de uma aplicação para registo de alterações e avaliação de desempenho

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia e Gestão da Qualidade

Supercritical fluid and pharmaceutical applications. Part I: Process classification

The supercritical fluid technology has been target of many pharmaceuticals investigations in particles production for almost 35 years. This is due to the great advantages it offers over others technologies currently used for the same purpose. A brief history is presented, as well the classification of supercritical technology based on the role that the supercritical fluid (carbon dioxide) performs in the process.

Beeswax organogels: Influence of gelator concentration and oil type in the gelation process

This work focused on how different types of oil phase, MCT (medium chain triglycerides) and LCT (long chain triglycerides), exert influence on the gelation process of beeswax and thus properties of the organogel produced thereof. Organogels were produced at different temperatures and qualitative phase diagrams were constructed to identify and classify the type of structure formed at various compositions. The microstructure of gelator crystals was studied by polarized light microscopy. Melting and crystallization were characterized by differential scanning calorimetry and rheology (flow and small amplitude oscillatory measurements) to understand organogels' behaviour under different mechanical and thermal conditions. FTIR analysis was employed for a further understanding of oil-gelator chemical interactions. Results showed that the increase of beeswax concentration led to higher values of storage and loss moduli (G, G) and complex modulus (G*) of organogels, which is associated to the strong network formed between the crystalline gelator structure and the oil phase. Crystallization occurred in two steps (well evidenced for higher concentrations of gelator) during temperature decreasing. Thermal analysis showed the occurrence of hysteresis between melting and crystallization. Small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) analysis allowed a better understanding in terms of how crystal conformations were disposed for each type of organogel. The structuring process supported by medium or long-chain triglycerides oils was an important exploit to apprehend the impact of different carbon chain-size on the gelation process and on gels' properties.

Electroquímica de sustancias de interés en los sistemas agroalimentario y de sanidad animal. Desarrollo de biosensores electroquímicos. Aplicaciones analíticas.Electrochemistry of substances of interest in agroalimentary and animal health systems. Development of electrochemical biosensors. Analytical applications.

Se estudiarán los mecanismos de reacción electroquímica de las micotoxinas (metabolitos tóxicos generados por hongos) citrinina (CIT), patulina (PAT) y moniliformina (MON), de los antioxidantes naturales alfa, beta, gama y delta tocoferoles, de los flavonoides fisetina (FIS), morina (MOR), luteolina (LUT), rutina (RUT), buteina (BUT), naringenina (NAR) y miricetina (MIR) y de las hormonas esteroides estradiol (EDIOL), estrona (EONA) y estriol (ETRIOL). Por otra parte, se implementarán técnicas electroanalíticas para la detección y cuantificación de estos sustratos en muestras de matrices naturales que los contengan. Se realizará el diseño y caracterización de biosensores enzimáticos a partir de peroxidasas y/o fosfatasa alcalina para la determinación de la micotoxina CIT y de los flavonoides y, por otro, de inmunosensores para las micotoxinas ocratoxina A (OTA) y PAT y hormonas. Para el anclaje de enzimas y/o anticuerpos, se estudiarán las propiedades de electrodos modificados por monocapas autoensambladas, nanotubos de carbono y partículas magnéticas. Se usarán las técnicas de voltamperometría cíclica, de onda cuadrada y de redisolución con acumulación adsortiva, espectroscopías de impedancia electroquímica, electrólisis a potencial controlado, uv-vis e IR, microbalanza de cristal de cuarzo y microscopías de alta resolución (SEM, TEM, AFM). La importancia de este proyecto apunta a la obtención de nuevos datos electroquímicos de los sustratos indicados y conocimientos relacionados con la aplicación de electrodos modificados en la preparación de biosensores y en el desarrollo de técnicas alternativas para la determinación de los analitos mencionados precedentemente. Electrochemical reaction mechanisms of mycotoxins (toxic metabolites generated by fungi) citrinin (CIT), Patulin (PAT) and moniliformin (MON), natural antioxidants alpha, beta, gamma and delta tocopherols, flavonoids fisetin (FIS), morin (MOR), luteolin (LUT), rutin (RUT), butein (BUT), naringenin (NAR), miricetin (MIR) and steroid hormones estradiol (EDIOL), estrone (EONA) and estriole (ETRIOL) will be explored. On the other hand, electroanalytical techniques for the detection and quantification of these substrates in samples of natural matrices will be implemented. The design and characterization of enzymatic biosensors from peroxidases and/or from alkaline phosphatase for the determination of CIT and flavonoids, and also of inmunosensors for ochratoxin A (OTA) and PAT and hormones will be performed. For the anchor of enzymes and/or antibody, properties of electrodes modified by self assembled monolayers, carbon nanotubes and magnetic particles will be explored. Cyclic, square wave and adsorptive stripping voltammetries, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, controlled potential electrolysis, uv-vis and IR, quartz crystal microbalance and high-resolution microcopies (SEM, TEM, AFM) will be used. The importance of this project is aimed at obtaining new electrochemical data for the indicated substrates and knowledge on the application of modified electrodes in preparation of biosensors and in the development of alternative techniques for the determination of the above-mentioned analytes.

Automating the testing process of image processing algorithms

As digital imaging processing techniques become increasingly used in a broad range of consumer applications, the critical need to evaluate algorithm performance has become recognised by developers as an area of vital importance. With digital image processing algorithms now playing a greater role in security and protection applications, it is of crucial importance that we are able to empirically study their performance. Apart from the field of biometrics little emphasis has been put on algorithm performance evaluation until now and where evaluation has taken place, it has been carried out in a somewhat cumbersome and unsystematic fashion, without any standardised approach. This paper presents a comprehensive testing methodology and framework aimed towards automating the evaluation of image processing algorithms. Ultimately, the test framework aims to shorten the algorithm development life cycle by helping to identify algorithm performance problems quickly and more efficiently.

Acoustic emission analysis of the effect of a 2D wedge shaped blade on the compact bone cutting process

Surgeons may use a number of cutting instruments such as osteotomes and chisels to cut bone during an operative procedure. The initial loading of cortical bone during the cutting process results in the formation of microcracks in the vicinity of the cutting zone with main crack propagation to failure occuring with continued loading. When a material cracks, energy is emitted in the form of Acoustic Emission (AE) signals that spread in all directions, therefore, AE transducers can be used to monitor the occurrence and development of microcracking and crack propagation in cortical bone. In this research, number of AE signals (hits) and related parameters including amplitude, duration and absolute energy (abs-energy) were recorded during the indentation cutting process by a wedge blade on cortical bone specimens. The cutting force was also measured to correlate between load-displacement curves and the output from the AE sensor. The results from experiments show AE signals increase substantially during the loading just prior to fracture between 90% and 100% of maximum fracture load. Furthermore, an amplitude threshold value of 64dB (with approximate abs-energy of 1500 aJ) was established to saparate AE signals associated with microcracking (41 – 64dB) from fracture related signals (65 – 98dB). The results also demonstrated that the complete fracture event which had the highest duration value can be distinguished from other growing macrocracks which did not lead to catastrophic fracture. It was observed that the main crack initiation may be detected by capturing a high amplitude signal at a mean load value of 87% of maximum load and unsteady crack propagation may occur just prior to final fracture event at a mean load value of 96% of maximum load. The author concludes that the AE method is useful in understanding the crack initiation and fracture during the indentation cutting process.

Application of multivariate statistical process control to fuel cell manufacturing

Univariate statistical control charts, such as the Shewhart chart, do not satisfy the requirements for process monitoring on a high volume automated fuel cell manufacturing line. This is because of the number of variables that require monitoring. The risk of elevated false alarms, due to the nature of the process being high volume, can present problems if univariate methods are used. Multivariate statistical methods are discussed as an alternative for process monitoring and control. The research presented is conducted on a manufacturing line which evaluates the performance of a fuel cell. It has three stages of production assembly that contribute to the final end product performance. The product performance is assessed by power and energy measurements, taken at various time points throughout the discharge testing of the fuel cell. The literature review performed on these multivariate techniques are evaluated using individual and batch observations. Modern techniques using multivariate control charts on Hotellings T2 are compared to other multivariate methods, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The latter, PCA, was identified as the most suitable method. Control charts such as, scores, T2 and DModX charts, are constructed from the PCA model. Diagnostic procedures, using Contribution plots, for out of control points that are detected using these control charts, are also discussed. These plots enable the investigator to perform root cause analysis. Multivariate batch techniques are compared to individual observations typically seen on continuous processes. Recommendations, for the introduction of multivariate techniques that would be appropriate for most high volume processes, are also covered.

Transferring QTL technology to the pig breeding industry (PigQTech) - a demonstration project

The aim of the project has been to demonstrate how the farm animal breeding industry can utilise gene mapping technology to accelerate genetic improvement. Previous theoretical studies had suggested that the use of marker assisted selection could potentially increase the annual improvement for quantitative traits like backfat with about 10% and for more difficult traits such as meat quality and reproduction by as much as 40-60% compared with existing technology. The work has comprised two major tasks: 1. Commercially relevant populations have been screened for segregation at QTLs identified in experimental populations. The aim has been to establish optimal strategies for QTL detection in commercial pig populations and the extent to which QTLs explaining major phenotypic differences between divergent lines used in experimental studies also explain quantitative variation within commercial lines. The results are important for specifying future strategies for finding economically valuable QTLs. 2. Marker assisted backcrossing has been used to demonstrate how a QTL allele can be introgressed from one breed to another. The work has focused on the major fatness QTL on pig chromosome 4 previously identified in a wild pig/Large White intercross. The end result was not designed to be a commercially viable product in its own right, but the process has validated a number of points of major importance for the exploitation of QTLs in livestock.

Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model

This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part I. Development of a quality assurance process for forensic ink analysis by HPTLC

The level of information provided by ink evidence to the criminal and civil justice system is limited. The limitations arise from the weakness of the interpretative framework currently used, as proposed in the ASTM 1422-05 and 1789-04 on ink analysis. It is proposed to use the likelihood ratio from the Bayes theorem to interpret ink evidence. Unfortunately, when considering the analytical practices, as defined in the ASTM standards on ink analysis, it appears that current ink analytical practices do not allow for the level of reproducibility and accuracy required by a probabilistic framework. Such framework relies on the evaluation of the statistics of the ink characteristics using an ink reference database and the objective measurement of similarities between ink samples. A complete research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a more reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in a forensic context. This report focuses on the first of the three stages. A calibration process, based on a standard dye ladder, is proposed to improve the reproducibility of ink analysis by HPTLC, when these inks are analysed at different times and/or by different examiners. The impact of this process on the variability between the repetitive analyses of ink samples in various conditions is studied. The results show significant improvements in the reproducibility of ink analysis compared to traditional calibration methods.

Interlinkages and forecasting made possible by the use of the DECOIN analytical tool kit

This technical report is a document prepared as a deliverable [D4.3 Report of the Interlinkages and forecasting prototype tool] of a EU project – DECOIN Project No. 044428 - FP6-2005-SSP-5A. The text is divided into 4 sections: (1) this short introductory section explains the purpose of the report; (2) the second section provides a general discussion of a systemic problem found in existing quantitative analysis of sustainability. It addresses the epistemological implications of complexity, which entails the need of dealing with the existence of Multiple-Scales and non-equivalent narratives (multiple dimensions/attributes) to be used to define sustainability issues. There is an unavoidable tension between a “steady-state view” (= the perception of what is going on now – reflecting a PAST --& PRESENT view of the reality) versus an “evolutionary view” (= the unknown transformation that we have to expect in the process of becoming of the observed reality and in the observer – reflecting a PRESENT --& FUTURE view of the reality). The section ends by listing the implications of these points on the choice of integrated packages of sustainability indicators; (3) the third section illustrates the potentiality of the DECOIN toolkit for the study of sustainability trade-offs and linkages across indicators using quantitative examples taken from cases study of another EU project (SMILE). In particular, this section starts by addressing the existence of internal constraints to sustainability (economic versus social aspects). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of ageing and immigration on the economic viability of social systems. Then the section continues by exploring external constraints to sustainability (economic development vs the environment). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of current strategy of economic development based on externalization and the “bubbles-disease”; (4) the last section presents a critical appraisal of the quality of energy data found in energy statistics. It starts with a discussion of the general goal of statistical accounting. Then it introduces the concept of multipurpose grammars. The second part uses the experience made in the activities of the DECOIN project to answer the question: how useful are EUROSTAT energy statistics? The answer starts with an analysis of basic epistemological problems associated with accounting of energy. This discussion leads to the acknowledgment of an important epistemological problem: the unavoidable bifurcations in the mechanism of accounting needed to generate energy statistics. By using numerical example the text deals with the following issues: (i) the pitfalls of the actual system of accounting in energy statistics; (ii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in BP statistics; (iii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in Eurostat statistics. The section ends by proposing an innovative method to represent energy statistics which can result more useful for those willing develop sustainability indicators.