mGPT: a probabilistic planner based on heuristic search

We describe the version of the GPT planner to be used in the planning competition. This version, called mGPT, solves mdps specified in the ppddllanguage by extracting and using different classes of lower bounds, along with various heuristic-search algorithms. The lower bounds are extracted from deterministic relaxations of the mdp where alternativeprobabilistic effects of an action are mapped into different, independent, deterministic actions. The heuristic-search algorithms, on the other hand, use these lower bounds for focusing the updates and delivering a consistent value function over all states reachable from the initial state with the greedy policy.

Constraints on effective field theory parameters for the Lambda N -> NN transition

The relation between the low-energy constants appearing in the effective field theory description of the Lambda N -> NN transition potential and the parameters of the one-meson-exchange model previously developed is obtained. We extract the relative importance of the different exchange mechanisms included in the meson picture by means of a comparison to the corresponding operational structures appearing in the effective approach. The ability of this procedure to obtain the weak baryon-baryon-meson couplings for a possible scalar exchange is also discussed.

Constraints on effective field theory parameters for the Lambda N -> NN transition

The relation between the low-energy constants appearing in the effective field theory description of the Lambda N -> NN transition potential and the parameters of the one-meson-exchange model previously developed is obtained. We extract the relative importance of the different exchange mechanisms included in the meson picture by means of a comparison to the corresponding operational structures appearing in the effective approach. The ability of this procedure to obtain the weak baryon-baryon-meson couplings for a possible scalar exchange is also discussed.

Wishes or Constraints? Mothers' Labour Force Participation and its Motivation in Switzerland

The aim of this article is to estimate the impact of various factors related to role conflict theory and preference theory on the reduction of women's labour force participation after their transition to parenthood. Objective and subjective dimensions of women's labour force participation are assessed. The empirical test is based on a survey of couples with children in Switzerland. Results show that compared to structural factors associated with role conflict reduction, preferences have little impact on mothers' labour force participation, but explain a good deal of their frustration if the factual situation does not correspond to their wishes. Structural factors, such as occupation, economic resources, childcare, and an urban environment, support mothers' labour force participation, whereas active networks and a home centred lifestyle preference help them to cope with frustrations.

Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

Constraints on Miocene oceanography and climate in the Western and Central Paratethys: O-, Sr-, and Nd-isotope compositions of marine fish and mammal remains

The Paratethys evolved as a marginal sea during the Alpine-Himalayan orogeny in the Oligo-Miocene. Sediments from the northern Alpine Molasse Basin, the Vienna, and the Pannonian Basins located in the western and central part of the Paratethys thus provide unique information on regional changes in climate and oceanography during a period of active Alpine uplift Oxygen isotope compositions of well-preserved phosphatic fossils recovered from the sediments support deposition under sub-tropical to warm-temperate climate with water temperatures of 14 to 28 degrees C for the Miocene. delta(18)O values of fossil shark teeth are similar to those reported for other Miocene marine sections and, using the best available estimates of their biostratigraphic age, show a variation until the end of the Badenian similar to that reported for composite global record. The (87)Sr/(86)Sr isotope ratios of the fossils follow the global Miocene seawater trend, albeit with a much larger scatter. The deviations of (87)Sr/(86)Sr in the samples from the well-constrained seawater curve are interpreted as due to local input of terrestrially-derived Sr. Contribution of local sources is also reflected in the epsilon(Nd) values, consistent with input from ancient crystalline rocks (e.g., Bohemian Massif and/or Mesozoic sediments with epsilon(Nd) < -9. On the other hand, there is evidence for input from areas with Neogene volcanism as suggested by samples with elevated epsilon(Nd) values >-7. Excluding samples showing local influence on the water column, an average epsilon(Nd) value of -7.9 +/- 0.5 may be inferred for the Miocene Paratethys. This value is indistinguishable from the epsilon(Nd) value of the contemporaneous Indian Ocean, supporting a dominant role of this ocean in the Western and Central Paratethys. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tectonomagmatic evolution of Western Amazonia: Geochemical characterization and zircon U-Pb geochronologic constraints from the Peruvian Eastern Cordilleran granitoids

The results of a coupled, in situ laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) U-Pb study on zircon and geochemical characterization of the Eastern Cordilleran intrusives of Peru reveal 1.15 Ga of intermittent magmatism along central Western Amazonia, the Earth's oldest active open continental margin. The eastern Peruvian batholiths are volumetrically dominated by plutonism related to the assembly and breakup of Pangea during the Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition. A Carboniferous-Permian (340-285 Ma) continental arc is identified along the regional orogenic strike from the Ecuadorian border (6 degrees S) to the inferred inboard extension of the Arequipa-Antofalla terrane in southern Peru (14 degrees S). Widespread crustal extension and thinning, which affected western Gondwana throughout the Permian and Triassic resulted in the intrusion of the late- to post-tectonic La Merced-San Ramon-type anatectites dated between 275 and 220 Ma, while the emplacement of the southern Cordillera de Carabaya peraluminous granitoids in the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic (220-190 Ma) represents, temporally and regionally, a separate tectonomagmatic event likely related to resuturing of the Arequipa-Antofalla block. Volcano-plutonic complexes and stocks associated with the onset of the present Andean cycle define a compositionally bimodal alkaline suite and cluster between 180 and 170 Ma. A volumetrically minor intrusive pulse of Oligocene age (ca. 30 Ma) is detected near the southwestern Cordilleran border with the Altiplano. Both post-Gondwanide (30-170 Ma), and Precambrian plutonism (691-1123 Ma) are restricted to isolated occurrences spatially comprising less than 15% of the Eastern Cordillera intrusives. Only one remnant of a Late Ordovician intrusive belt is recognized in the Cuzco batholith (446.5 +/- 9.7 Ma) indicating that the Famatinian arc system previously identified in Peru along the north-central Eastern Cordillera and the coastal Arequipa-Antofalla terrane also existed inboard of this parautochthonous crustal fragment. Hitherto unknown occurrences of late Mesoproterozoic and middle Neoproterozoic granitoids from the south-central cordilleran segment define magmatic events at 691 +/- 13 Ma, 751 +/- 8 Ma, 985 +/- 14 Ma, and 1071-1123 +/- 23 Ma that are broadly coeval with the Braziliano and Grenville-Sunsas orogenies, respectively. Our data suggest the existence of a continuous orogenic belt in excess of 3500 km along Western Amazonia during the formation of Rodinia, its ``early'' fragmentation prior to 690 Ma, and support a model of reaccretion of the Paracas-Arequipa-Antofalla terrane to western Gondwana in the Early Ordovician with subsequent detachment of the Paracas segment in form of the Mexican Oaxaquia microcontinent in Middle Ordovician. A tectonomagmatic model involving slab detachment, followed by underplating of cratonic margin by asthenospheric mantle is proposed for the genesis of the volumetrically dominant Late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic Peruvian Cordilleran batholiths.

Stable isotope (C, O, S) systematics of the mercury mineralization at Idrija, Slovenia: constraints on fluid source and alteration processes

The world-class Idrija mercury deposit (western Slovenia) is hosted by highly deformed Permocarboniferous to Middle Triassic sedimentary rocks within a complex tectonic structure at the transition between the External Dinarides and the Southern Alps. Concordant and discordant mineralization formed concomitant with Middle Triassic bimodal volcanism in an aborted rift. A multiple isotopic (C, O, S) investigation of host rocks and ore minerals was performed to put constraints on the source and composition of the fluid, and the hydrothermal alteration. The distributions of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O values of host and gangue carbonates are indicative of a fracture-controlled hydrothermal system, with locally high fluid-rock ratios. Quantitative modeling of the delta(13)C and delta(18)O covariation for host carbonates during temperature dependent fluid-rock interaction, and concomitant precipitation of void-filling dolomites points to a slightly acidic hydrothermal fluid (delta(13)Capproximate to-4parts per thousand and delta(18)Oapproximate to+10parts per thousand), which most likely evolved during isotopic exchange with carbonates under low fluid/rock ratios. The delta(34)S values of hydrothermal and sedimentary sulfur minerals were used to re-evaluate the previously proposed magmatic and evaporitic sulfur sources for the mineralization, and to assess the importance of other possible sulfur sources such as the contemporaneous seawater sulfate, sedimentary pyrite, and organic sulfur compounds. The delta(34)S values of the sulfides show a large variation at deposit down to hand-specimen scale. They range for cinnabar and pyrite from -19.1 to +22.8parts per thousand, and from -22.4 to +59.6parts per thousand, respectively, suggesting mixing of sulfur from different sources. The peak of delta(34)S values of cinnabar and pyrite close to 0parts per thousand is compatible with ore sulfur derived dominantly from a magmatic fluid and/or from hydrothermal leaching of basement rocks. The similar stratigraphic trends of the delta(34)S values of both cinnabar and pyrite suggest a minor contribution of sedimentary sulfur (pyrite and organic sulfur) to the ore formation. Some of the positive delta(34)S values are probably derived from thermochemical reduction of evaporitic and contemporaneous seawater sulfates.

Developmental constraints on vertebrate genome evolution.

Constraints in embryonic development are thought to bias the direction of evolution by making some changes less likely, and others more likely, depending on their consequences on ontogeny. Here, we characterize the constraints acting on genome evolution in vertebrates. We used gene expression data from two vertebrates: zebrafish, using a microarray experiment spanning 14 stages of development, and mouse, using EST counts for 26 stages of development. We show that, in both species, genes expressed early in development (1) have a more dramatic effect of knock-out or mutation and (2) are more likely to revert to single copy after whole genome duplication, relative to genes expressed late. This supports high constraints on early stages of vertebrate development, making them less open to innovations (gene gain or gene loss). Results are robust to different sources of data -- gene expression from microarrays, ESTs, or in situ hybridizations; and mutants from directed KO, transgenic insertions, point mutations, or morpholinos. We determine the pattern of these constraints, which differs from the model used to describe vertebrate morphological conservation ("hourglass" model). While morphological constraints reach a maximum at mid-development (the "phylotypic" stage), genomic constraints appear to decrease in a monotonous manner over developmental time.

Prepupal Building Behavior in Drosophila melanogaster and Its Evolution under Resource and Time Constraints.

Structures built by animals are a widespread and ecologically important 'extended phenotype'. While its taxonomic diversity has been well described, factors affecting short-term evolution of building behavior within a species have received little experimental attention. Here we describe how, given the opportunity, wandering Drosophila melanogaster larvae often build long tunnels in agar substrates and embed their pupae within them. These embedded larvae are characterized by a longer egg-to-pupariation developmental time than larvae that pupate on the surface. Assuming that such building behaviors are likely to be energetically costly and/or time consuming, we hypothesized that they should evolve to be less pronounced under resource or time limitation. In accord with this prediction, larvae from populations evolved for 160 generations under a regime that combines larval malnutrition with limited developmental time dug shorter tunnels than larvae from control unselected populations. However, the proportion of larvae that embedded before pupation did not differ between the malnutrition-adapted and control populations, suggesting that tunnel length and likelihood of embedding before pupation are controlled by different genetic loci. The behaviors exhibited by wandering larvae of Drosophila melanogaster prior to pupation offer a model system to study evolution of animal building behaviors because the tunneling and embedding phenotypes are simple, facultative and highly variable.

Probabilistic algorithms for blind adaptive multiuser detection

In this paper, two probabilistic adaptive algorithmsfor jointly detecting active users in a DS-CDMA system arereported. The first one, which is based on the theory of hiddenMarkov models (HMM’s) and the Baum–Wech (BW) algorithm,is proposed within the CDMA scenario and compared withthe second one, which is a previously developed Viterbi-basedalgorithm. Both techniques are completely blind in the sense thatno knowledge of the signatures, channel state information, ortraining sequences is required for any user. Once convergencehas been achieved, an estimate of the signature of each userconvolved with its physical channel response (CR) and estimateddata sequences are provided. This CR estimate can be used toswitch to any decision-directed (DD) adaptation scheme. Performanceof the algorithms is verified via simulations as well as onexperimental data obtained in an underwater acoustics (UWA)environment. In both cases, performance is found to be highlysatisfactory, showing the near–far resistance of the analyzed algorithms.