An evaluation of ocean color model estimates of marine primary productivity in coastal and pelagic regions across the globe

Nearly half of the earth's photosynthetically fixed carbon derives from the oceans. To determine global and region specific rates, we rely on models that estimate marine net primary productivity (NPP) thus it is essential that these models are evaluated to determine their accuracy. Here we assessed the skill of 21 ocean color models by comparing their estimates of depth-integrated NPP to 1156 in situ C-14 measurements encompassing ten marine regions including the Sargasso Sea, pelagic North Atlantic, coastal Northeast Atlantic, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Sea, subtropical North Pacific, Ross Sea, West Antarctic Peninsula, and the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone. Average model skill, as determined by root-mean square difference calculations, was lowest in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, highest in the pelagic North Atlantic and the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone, and intermediate in the other six regions. The maximum fraction of model skill that may be attributable to uncertainties in both the input variables and in situ NPP measurements was nearly 72%. on average, the simplest depth/wavelength integrated models performed no worse than the more complex depth/wavelength resolved models. Ocean color models were not highly challenged in extreme conditions of surface chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature, nor in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters. Water column depth was the primary influence on ocean color model performance such that average skill was significantly higher at depths greater than 250 m, suggesting that ocean color models are more challenged in Case-2 waters (coastal) than in Case-1 (pelagic) waters. Given that in situ chlorophyll-a data was used as input data, algorithm improvement is required to eliminate the poor performance of ocean color NPP models in Case-2 waters that are close to coastlines. Finally, ocean color chlorophyll-a algorithms are challenged by optically complex Case-2 waters, thus using satellite-derived chlorophyll-a to estimate NPP in coastal areas would likely further reduce the skill of ocean color models.

Modelo OLAM (ocean-land-atmosphere-model): descrição, aplicações, e perspectivas

O modelo OLAM foi desenvolvido com objetivo de estender a capacidade de representar os fenômenos de escala global e regional simultaneamente. Este modelo apresenta inovações quanto aos processos dinâmicos, configuração de grade, estrutura de memória e técnicas de solução numérica das equações prognósticas. As equações de Navier-Stokes são resolvidas através da técnica de volumes finitos que conservam massa, momento e energia. No presente trabalho, apresenta-se uma descrição sucinta do OLAM e alguns resultados de sua aplicação em simulações climáticas da precipitação mensal para a região norte da América do Sul, bem como em rodadas para previsão numérica de tempo regional. Os resultados mostram que o modelo consegue representar bem os aspectos meteorológicos de grande escala. Em geral, seu desempenho melhora quando são adotadas grades de maior resolução espacial, nas quais se verificam melhorias significativas tanto na estimativa da precipitação mensal regional, quanto na previsão numérica de tempo.

Bayesian age and growth analysis of the shortfin mako shark Isurus oxyrinchus in the Western South Atlantic Ocean using a flexible model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses in the ocean component of the NCAR-CCSM model

We examine Weddell Sea deep water mass distributions with respect to the results from three different model runs using the oceanic component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM). One run is inter-annually forced by corrected NCAR/NCEP fluxes, while the other two are forced with the annual cycle obtained from the same climatology. One of the latter runs includes an interactive sea-ice model. Optimum Multiparameter analysis is applied to separate the deep water masses in the Greenwich Meridian section (into the Weddell Sea only) to measure the degree of realism obtained in the simulations. First, we describe the distribution of the simulated deep water masses using observed water type indices. Since the observed indices do not provide an acceptable representation of the Weddell Sea deep water masses as expected, they are specifically adjusted for each simulation. Differences among the water masses` representations in the three simulations are quantified through their root-mean-square differences. Results point out the need for better representation (and inclusion) of ice-related processes in order to improve the oceanic characteristics and variability of dense Southern Ocean water masses in the outputs of the NCAR-CCSM model, and probably in other ocean and climate models.

A new conceptual model of nitrification: A key factor in resolving the metabolic state of the ocean

Máster en Oceanografía

Study of a wind-wave numerical model and its integration with ocean and oil-spill numerical models

The ability to represent the transport and fate of an oil slick at the sea surface is a formidable task. By using an accurate numerical representation of oil evolution and movement in seawater, the possibility to asses and reduce the oil-spill pollution risk can be greatly improved. The blowing of the wind on the sea surface generates ocean waves, which give rise to transport of pollutants by wave-induced velocities that are known as Stokes’ Drift velocities. The Stokes’ Drift transport associated to a random gravity wave field is a function of the wave Energy Spectra that statistically fully describe it and that can be provided by a wave numerical model. Therefore, in order to perform an accurate numerical simulation of the oil motion in seawater, a coupling of the oil-spill model with a wave forecasting model is needed. In this Thesis work, the coupling of the MEDSLIK-II oil-spill numerical model with the SWAN wind-wave numerical model has been performed and tested. In order to improve the knowledge of the wind-wave model and its numerical performances, a preliminary sensitivity study to different SWAN model configuration has been carried out. The SWAN model results have been compared with the ISPRA directional buoys located at Venezia, Ancona and Monopoli and the best model settings have been detected. Then, high resolution currents provided by a relocatable model (SURF) have been used to force both the wave and the oil-spill models and its coupling with the SWAN model has been tested. The trajectories of four drifters have been simulated by using JONSWAP parametric spectra or SWAN directional-frequency energy output spectra and results have been compared with the real paths traveled by the drifters.

Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Regulation of Phytoplankton Carbon to Chlorophyll Ratio By Light, Nutrients and Temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean: A Basin-Scale Model

The complex effects of light, nutrients and temperature lead to a variable carbon to chlorophyll (C:Chl) ratio in phytoplankton cells. Using field data collected in the Equatorial Pacific, we derived a new dynamic model with a non-steady C:Chl ratio as a function of irradiance, nitrate, iron, and temperature. The dynamic model is implemented into a basin-scale ocean circulation-biogeochemistry model and tested in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The model reproduces well the general features of phytoplankton dynamics in this region. For instance, the simulated deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is much deeper in the western warm pool (similar to 100 m) than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (similar to 50 m). The model also shows the ability to reproduce chlorophyll, including not only the zonal, meridional and vertical variations, but also the interannual variability. This modeling study demonstrates that combination of nitrate and iron regulates the spatial and temporal variations in the phytoplankton C:Chl ratio in the Equatorial Pacific. Sensitivity simulations suggest that nitrate is mainly responsible for the high C:Chl ratio in the western warm pool while iron is responsible for the frontal features in the C:Chl ratio between the warm pool and the upwelling region. In addition, iron plays a dominant role in regulating the spatial and temporal variations of the C:Chl ratio in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific. While temperature has a relatively small effect on the C:Chl ratio, light is primarily responsible for the vertical decrease of phytoplankton C:Chl ratio in the euphotic zone.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

Influence of the Central American Seaway and Drake Passage on ocean circulation and neodymium isotopes: A model study

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simulations with various intermediate depths are performed for both seaways, providing insight into ϵNd and circulation responses to progressive throughflow evolutions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these responses to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the neodymium boundary source is examined. Modeled ϵNd changes are compared to sediment core and ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crust data. The model results indicate that the North Atlantic ϵNd response to the CAS shoaling is highly dependent on the AMOC state, i.e., on the AMOC strength before the shoaling to shallow depths (preclosure). Three scenarios based on different AMOC forcings are discussed, of which the model-data agreement favors a shallow preclosure (Miocene) AMOC (∼6 Sv). The DP opening causes a rather complex circulation response, resulting in an initial South Atlantic ϵNd decrease preceding a larger increase. This feature may be specific to our model setup, which induces a vigorous CAS throughflow that is strongly anticorrelated to the DP throughflow. In freshwater experiments following the DP deepening, ODP Site 1090 is mainly influenced by AMOC and DP throughflow changes, while ODP Site 689 is more strongly influenced by Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and CAS throughflow changes. The boundary source uncertainty is largest for shallow seaways and at shallow sites.