975 resultados para Predictive-value


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Introduction: Intraoperative EMG based neurophysiological monitoring is increasingly used to assist pedicle screw insertion. We carried out a study comparing the final screw position in the pedicle measured on CT images in relation to its corresponding intraoperative muscle compound action potential (CMAP) values. Material and methods: A total of 189 screws were inserted in thoracolumbar spines of 31 patients during instrumented fusion under EMG control. An observer, blinded to the CMAP value, assessed the horizontal and vertical 'screw edge to pedicle edge' distance perpendicular to the longitudinal axis of the screw on reformatted CT reconstructions using OsiriX software. These distances were analysed with their corresponding CMAP values. Data from 62 thoracic and 127 lumbar screws were processed separately. Interobserver reliability of distance measurements was assessed. Results: No patient suffered neurological injury secondary to screw insertion. Distance measurements were reliable (paired t-test, P = 0.13/0.98 horizontal/vertical). Two screws had their position altered due to low CMAP values suggesting close proximity of nerve tissue. Seventy five percent of screws had CMAP results above 10mA and had an average distance of 0.35cm (SD 0.23) horizontally and 0.46cm (SD 0.26) vertically from the pedicle edge. Additional 12% had a distance from the edge of the pedicle less than 0mm indicating cortical breach but had CMAP values above 10mA. A poor correlation between CMAP values and screw position was found. Discussion: In this study CMAP values above 10mA indicated correct screw position in the majority of cases. The zone of 10-20mA CMAP carries highest risk of a misplaced screw despite high CMAP value (17% of screws this CMAP range). In order to improve accuracy of EMG predictive value further research is warranted including improvement of probing techniques.

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iii. Catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI) diagnosis usually involves catheter withdrawal. An alternative method for CR-BSI diagnosis is the differential time to positivity (DTP) between peripheral and catheter hub blood cultures. This study aims to validate the DTP method in short-term catheters. The results show a low prevalence of CR-BSI in the sample (8.4%). The DTP method is a valid alternative for CR-BSI diagnosis in those cases with monomicrobial cultures (80% sensitivity, 99% specificity, 92% positive predictive value, and 98% negative predictive value) and a cut-off point of 17.7 hours for positivity of hub blood culture may assess in CR-BSI diagnosis.

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OBJECTIVE: To compare three spin-echo sequences, transverse T1-weighted (T1WI), transverse fat-saturated (FS) T2-weighted (T2WI), and transverse gadolinium-enhanced (Gd) FS T1WI, for the visualisation of normal and abnormal finger A2 pulley with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging at 3 tesla (T). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-three fingers from 21 patients were consecutively investigated. Two musculoskeletal radiologists retrospectively compared all sequences to assess the visibility of normal and abnormal A2 pulleys and the presence of motion or ghost artefacts. RESULTS: Normal and abnormal A2 pulleys were visible in 94% (59/63) and 95% (60/63) on T1WI sequences, in 63% (40/63) and 60% (38/63) on FS T2WI sequences, and in 87% (55/63) and 73% (46/63) on Gd FS T1WI sequences when read by the first and second observer, respectively. Motion and ghost artefacts were higher on FS T2WI sequences. Seven among eight abnormal A2 pulleys were detected, and were best depicted with Gd FS T1WI sequences in 71% (5/7) and 86% (6/7) by the first and the second observer, respectively. CONCLUSION: In 3-T MRI, the comparison between transverse T1WI, FS T2WI, and Gd FS T1WI sequences shows that transverse T1WI allows excellent depiction of the A2 pulley, that FS T2WI suffers from a higher rate of motion and ghost artefacts, and transverse Gd FS T1WI is the best sequence for the depiction of abnormal A2 pulley.

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OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

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We investigated whether neuron-specific enolase (NSE) in serum or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) reflects subtle or manifest brain injury in children undergoing cardiac surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). NSE was measured in serum (s-NSE) before, and up to, 102 h after surgery in 27 children undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. In 11 children, CSF-NSE was also measured 48 or 66 h post-surgery. As erythrocytes contain NSE, hemoglobin concentration in the samples was determined spectrophotometrically at 550 nm (cut-off limit: absorbance 0.4 = 560 mg/l) in 14 children and in a further 13 children by spectroscopic multicomponent analysis (cut-off limit 5 micromol/l = 80 mg/l). One hundred and one of 214 post-operative serum samples (47%) had to be discarded because of hemolysis (18% spectrophotometrically at 550 nm and 88% with spectroscopic multicomponent analysis). On the first and second post-operative day, the median s-NSE values were significantly higher when compared with samples taken after 54 h or longer (P = 0.008 and P = 0.002). All CSF-NSE levels were within the normal range and below the s-NSE measured in the same patient. Although in our study elevated s-NSE seems to indicate brain injury in CPB-surgery, the low concentration of NSE in the post-operative CSF of 11 children puts the neuronal origin of s-NSE in question. NSE from other non-neuronal tissues probably contributes to the elevated s-NSE. Additionally, normal post-operative CSF-NSE values in two children with post-operative neurological sequelae might question the predictive value of CSF-NSE with regard to brain injury.

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PURPOSE: To investigate the feasibility of high-resolution selective three-dimensional (3D) magnetic resonance coronary angiography (MRCA) in the evaluation of coronary artery stenoses. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In 12 patients with coronary artery stenoses, MRCA of the coronary artery groups, including the coronary segments with stenoses of 50% or greater based on conventional x-ray coronary angiography (CAG), was performed with double-oblique imaging planes by orienting the 3D slab along the major axis of each right coronary artery-left circumflex artery (RCA-LCX) group and each left main trunk-left anterior descending artery (LMT-LAD) group. Ten RCA-LCX and five LMT-LAD MR angiograms were obtained, and the results were compared with those of conventional x-ray angiography. RESULTS: Among 70 coronary artery segments expected to be covered, a total of 49 (70%) segments were fully demonstrated in diagnostic quality. The identification of segmental location of stenoses showed as high an accuracy as 96%. The retrospective analysis for stenosis of 50% or greater yielded the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 80%, 85%, and 84%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Selective 3D MRCA has the potential for segment-by-segment evaluation of major portions of the right and left coronary arteries with high accuracy.

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The present study developed and standardized an enzime-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect Giardia antigen in feces using rabbit polyclonal antibodies. Giardia cysts were purified from human fecal samples by sucrose and percoll gradients. Gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) were infected to obtain trophozoites. Rabbits were inoculated with either cyst or trophozoite antigens of 14 Colombian Giardia isolates to develop antibodies against the respective stages. The IgG anti-Giardia were purified by sequential caprylic acid and ammonium sulfate precipitation. A portion of these polyclonal antibodies was linked to alkaline phosphatase (conjugate). One hundred and ninety six samples of human feces, from different patients, were tested by parasitologic diagnosis: 69 were positive for Giardia cysts, 56 had no Giardia parasites, and 71 revealed parasites other than Giardia. The optimal concentration of polyclonal antibodies for antigen capture was 40 µg/ml and the optimal conjugate dilution was 1:100. The absorbance cut-off value was 0.24. The parameters of the ELISA test for Giardia antigen detection were: sensitivity, 100% (95% CI: 93.4-100%); specificity, 95% (95% CI: 88.6-97.6%); positive predictive value, 91% (95% CI: 81.4-95.9%); and negative predictive value, 100% (95% CI: 96.1-100%). This ELISA will improve the diagnosis of Giardia infections in Colombia and will be useful in following patients after treatment.

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Tumor vaccines may induce activation and expansion of specific CD8 T cells which can subsequently destroy tumor cells in cancer patients. This phenomenon can be observed in approximately 5-20% of vaccinated melanoma patients. We searched for factors associated with T cell responsiveness to peptide vaccines. Peptide antigen-specific T cells were quantified and characterized ex vivo before and after vaccination. T cell responses occurred primarily in patients with T cells that were already pre-activated before vaccination. Thus, peptide vaccines can efficiently boost CD8 T cells that are pre-activated by endogenous tumor antigen. Our results identify a new state of T cell responsiveness and help to explain and predict tumor vaccine efficacy.

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Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are sometimes recommended to improve the home-based management of malaria. The accuracy of an RDT for the detection of clinical malaria and the presence of malarial parasites has recently been evaluated in a high-transmission area of southern Mali. During the same study, the cost-effectiveness of a 'test-and-treat' strategy for the home-based management of malaria (based on an artemisinin-combination therapy) was compared with that of a 'treat-all' strategy. Overall, 301 patients, of all ages, each of whom had been considered a presumptive case of uncomplicated malaria by a village healthworker, were checked with a commercial RDT (Paracheck-Pf). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this test, compared with the results of microscopy and two different definitions of clinical malaria, were then determined. The RDT was found to be 82.9% sensitive (with a 95% confidence interval of 78.0%-87.1%) and 78.9% (63.9%-89.7%) specific compared with the detection of parasites by microscopy. In the detection of clinical malaria, it was 95.2% (91.3%-97.6%) sensitive and 57.4% (48.2%-66.2%) specific compared with a general practitioner's diagnosis of the disease, and 100.0% (94.5%-100.0%) sensitive but only 30.2% (24.8%-36.2%) specific when compared against the fulfillment of the World Health Organization's (2003) research criteria for uncomplicated malaria. Among children aged 0-5 years, the cost of the 'test-and-treat' strategy, per episode, was about twice that of the 'treat-all' (U.S.$1.0. v. U.S.$0.5). In older subjects, however, the two strategies were equally costly (approximately U.S.$2/episode). In conclusion, for children aged 0-5 years in a high-transmission area of sub-Saharan Africa, use of the RDT was not cost-effective compared with the presumptive treatment of malaria with an ACT. In older patients, use of the RDT did not reduce costs. The question remains whether either of the strategies investigated can be made affordable for the affected population.

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ABSTRACT: Invasive candidiasis is a frequent life-threatening complication in critically ill patients. Early diagnosis followed by prompt treatment aimed at improving outcome by minimizing unnecessary antifungal use remains a major challenge in the ICU setting. Timely patient selection thus plays a key role for clinically efficient and cost-effective management. Approaches combining clinical risk factors and Candida colonization data have improved our ability to identify such patients early. While the negative predictive value of scores and predicting rules is up to 95 to 99%, the positive predictive value is much lower, ranging between 10 and 60%. Accordingly, if a positive score or rule is used to guide the start of antifungal therapy, many patients may be treated unnecessarily. Candida biomarkers display higher positive predictive values; however, they lack sensitivity and are thus not able to identify all cases of invasive candidiasis. The (1→3)-β-D-glucan (BG) assay, a panfungal antigen test, is recommended as a complementary tool for the diagnosis of invasive mycoses in high-risk hemato-oncological patients. Its role in the more heterogeneous ICU population remains to be defined. More efficient clinical selection strategies combined with performant laboratory tools are needed in order to treat the right patients at the right time by keeping costs of screening and therapy as low as possible. The new approach proposed by Posteraro and colleagues in the previous issue of Critical Care meets these requirements. A single positive BG value in medical patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis and expected to stay for more than 5 days preceded the documentation of candidemia by 1 to 3 days with an unprecedented diagnostic accuracy. Applying this one-point fungal screening on a selected subset of ICU patients with an estimated 15 to 20% risk of developing candidemia is an appealing and potentially cost-effective approach. If confirmed by multicenter investigations, and extended to surgical patients at high risk of invasive candidiasis after abdominal surgery, this Bayesian-based risk stratification approach aimed at maximizing clinical efficiency by minimizing health care resource utilization may substantially simplify the management of critically ill patients at risk of invasive candidiasis.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

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In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU- C assays have significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.

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Several scores with predictive value for morbidity or mortality have been published this year. Their current purpose is to improve the direction of admissions and lengths of stay in hospital. Their use permits more directed care, especially for the elderly, and therefore could improve the proper orientation and admission of patients. Also this year, certain procedures are undergoing evaluation, namely: new assays for troponin, and non-contrast CT in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis. Furthermore in the therapeutic realm: the importance of cardiac massage and the advantages of therapeutic hypothermia in cardiac arrest, and the efficacy of oxygen therapy in cluster headache.

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OBJECTIVES: Management of patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) remains controversial. We chose to repeat the Pap smear after four months. If ASCUS persisted in this second test, the patient was advised to undergo colposcopy. Our objective is to determine the clinical significance and the prediction of neoplasia among these patients through a colposcopic examination. METHODS: Of 29,827 patients who had a Pap smear, ASCUS were detected in 1387 (5%) and persisted in the repeat smear of 225 (16%). Colposcopy and an additional Pap smear were performed on 186 patients. RESULTS: Out of 186 colposcopic evaluations, 91 (49%) were normal and the patients had a negative Pap smear. Colposcopy was abnormal in 95/186 patients (51%) (Table 1). Histology of the directed biopsies revealed 38 (21%) low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and 17 (9%) high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). Forty patients (21%) with normal biopsies had ASCUS for the third time in the Pap smear. CONCLUSIONS: Colposcopic evaluation after a repeated Pap smear with ASCUS is an appropriate cost-effective management. Finding 30% of LSIL or HSIL justifies this additional investigation.