A study of business user based information systems development, and modelling success factors

This thesis describes research into business user involvement in the information systems application building process. The main interest of this research is in establishing and testing techniques to quantify the relationships between identified success factors and the outcome effectiveness of 'business user development' (BUD). The availability of a mechanism to measure the levels of the success factors, and quantifiably relate them to outcome effectiveness, is important in that it provides an organisation with the capability to predict and monitor effects on BUD outcome effectiveness. This is particularly important in an era where BUD levels have risen dramatically, user centred information systems development benefits are recognised as significant, and awareness of the risks of uncontrolled BUD activity is becoming more widespread. This research targets the measurement and prediction of BUD success factors and implementation effectiveness for particular business users. A questionnaire instrument and analysis technique has been tested and developed which constitutes a tool for predicting and monitoring BUD outcome effectiveness, and is based on the BUDES (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope) research model - which is introduced and described in this thesis. The questionnaire instrument is designed for completion by 'business users' - the target community being more explicitly defined as 'people who primarily have a business role within an organisation'. The instrument, named BUD ESP (Business User Development Effectiveness and Scope Predictor), can readily be used with survey participants, and has been shown to give meaningful and representative results.

Simulation of optical fibre communication systems influenced by stimulated brillouin scattering

Boyd's SBS model which includes distributed thermal acoustic noise (DTAN) has been enhanced to enable the Stokes-spontaneous density depletion noise (SSDDN) component of the transmitted optical field to be simulated, probably for the first time, as well as the full transmitted field. SSDDN would not be generated from previous SBS models in which a Stokes seed replaces DTAN. SSDDN becomes the dominant form of transmitted SBS noise as model fibre length (MFL) is increased but its optical power spectrum remains independent of MFL. Simulations of the full transmitted field and SSDDN for different MFLs allow prediction of the optical power spectrum, or system performance parameters which depend on this, for typical communication link lengths which are too long for direct simulation. The SBS model has also been innovatively improved by allowing the Brillouin Shift Frequency (BS) to vary over the model fibre length, for the nonuniform fibre model (NFM) mode, or to remain constant, for the uniform fibre model (UFM) mode. The assumption of a Gaussian probability density function (pdf) for the BSF in the NFM has been confirmed by means of an analysis of reported Brillouin amplified power spectral measurements for the simple case of a nominally step-index single-mode pure silica core fibre. The BSF pdf could be modified to match the Brillouin gain spectra of other fibre types if required. For both models, simulated backscattered and output powers as functions of input power agree well with those from a reported experiment for fitting Brillouin gain coefficients close to theoretical. The NFM and UFM Brillouin gain spectra are then very similar from half to full maximum but diverge at lower values. Consequently, NFM and UFM transmitted SBS noise powers inferred for long MFLs differ by 1-2 dB over the input power range of 0.15 dBm. This difference could be significant for AM-VSB CATV links at some channel frequencies. The modelled characteristic of Carrier-to-Noise Ratio (CNR) as a function of input power for a single intensity modulated subcarrier is in good agreement with the characteristic reported for an experiment when either the UFM or NFM is used. The difference between the two modelled characteristics would have been more noticeable for a higher fibre length or a lower subcarrier frequency.

Development of a post-mitotic, neuronal-astrocytic cell system, for the prediction of acute neurotoxicity in humans

The human NT2.D1 cell line was differentiated to form both a 1:2 co-culture of post-mitotic NT2 neuronal and NT2 astrocytic (NT2.N/A) cells and a pure NT2.N culture. The respective sensitivities to several test chemicals of the NT2.N/A, the NT2.N, and the NT2.D1 cells were evaluated and compared with the CCF-STTG1 astrocytoma cell line, using a combination of basal cytotoxicity and biochemical endpoints. Using the MTT assay, the basal cytotoxicity data estimated the comparative toxicities of the test chemicals (chronic neurotoxin 2,5-hexanedione, cytotoxins 2,3- and 3,4-hexanedione and acute neurotoxins tributyltin- and trimethyltin- chloride) and also provided the non-cytotoxic concentration-range for each compound. Biochemical endpoints examined over the non-cytotoxic range included assays for ATP levels, oxidative status (H2O2 and GSH levels) and caspase-3 levels as an indicator of apoptosis. although the endpoints did not demonstrate the known neurotoxicants to be consistently more toxic to the cell systems with the greatest number of neuronal properties, the NT2 astrocytes appeared to contribute positively to NT2 neuronal health following exposure to all the test chemicals. The NT2.N/A co-culture generally maintained superior ATP and GSH levels and reduced H2O2 levels in comparison with the NT2.N mono-culture. In addition, the pure NT2.N culture showed a significantly lower level of caspase-3 activation compared with the co-culture, suggesting NT2 astrocytes may be important in modulating the mode of cell death following toxic insult. Overall, these studies provide evidence that an in vitro integrated population of post-mitotic human neurons and astrocytes may offer significant relevance to the human in vivo heterogeneous nervous system, when initially screening compounds for acute neurotoxic potential.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

A study of the aerodynamic characteristics of captor hoods in local exhaust ventilation systems

The research objectives were:- 1.To review the literature to establish the factors which have traditionally been regarded as most crucial to the design of effectlve exhaust ventilation systems. 2. To design, construct, install and calibrate a wind tunnel. 3. To develop procedures for air velocity measurement followed by a comprehensive programme of aerodvnamic data collection and data analysis for a variety of conditions. The major research findings were:- a) The literature in the subject is inadequate. There is a particular need for a much greater understanding of the aerodynamics of the suction flow field. b) The discrepancies between the experimentally observed centre-line velocities and those predicted by conventional formulae are unacceptably large. c) There was little agreement between theoretically calculated and observed velocities in the suction zone of captor hoods. d) Improved empirical formulae for the prediction of centre-line velocity applicable to the classical geometrically shaped suction openings and the flanged condition could be (and were) derived. Further analysis of data revealed that: - i) Point velocity is directly proportional to the suction. flow rate and the ratio of the point velocity to the average face velocity is constant. ii) Both shape, and size of the suction opening are significant factors as the coordinates of their points govern the extent of the effect of the suction flow field. iii) The hypothetical ellipsoidal potential function and hyperbolic streamlines were found experimentally to be correct. iv) The effect of guide plates depends on the size, shape and the angle of fitting. The effect was to very approximately double the suction velocity but the exact effect is difficult to predict. v) The axially symmetric openings produce practically symmetric flow fields. Similarity of connection pieces between the suction opening and the main duct in each case is essential in order to induce a similar suction flow field. Additionally a pilot study was made in which an artificial extraneous air flow was created, measured and its interaction with the suction flow field measured and represented graphically.

T-cell epitope prediction and immune complex simulation using molecular dynamics:state of the art and persisting challenges

Atomistic Molecular Dynamics provides powerful and flexible tools for the prediction and analysis of molecular and macromolecular systems. Specifically, it provides a means by which we can measure theoretically that which cannot be measured experimentally: the dynamic time-evolution of complex systems comprising atoms and molecules. It is particularly suitable for the simulation and analysis of the otherwise inaccessible details of MHC-peptide interaction and, on a larger scale, the simulation of the immune synapse. Progress has been relatively tentative yet the emergence of truly high-performance computing and the development of coarse-grained simulation now offers us the hope of accurately predicting thermodynamic parameters and of simulating not merely a handful of proteins but larger, longer simulations comprising thousands of protein molecules and the cellular scale structures they form. We exemplify this within the context of immunoinformatics.

A tree-based decision model to support prediction of the severity of asthma exacerbations in children

This paper describes the development of a tree-based decision model to predict the severity of pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department (ED) at 2 h following triage. The model was constructed from retrospective patient data abstracted from the ED charts. The original data was preprocessed to eliminate questionable patient records and to normalize values of age-dependent clinical attributes. The model uses attributes routinely collected in the ED and provides predictions even for incomplete observations. Its performance was verified on independent validating data (split-sample validation) where it demonstrated AUC (area under ROC curve) of 0.83, sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 71% and the Brier score of 0.18. The model is intended to supplement an asthma clinical practice guideline, however, it can be also used as a stand-alone decision tool.

Minimizing nasty surprises with better informed decision-making in self-adaptive systems

Designers of self-adaptive systems often formulate adaptive design decisions, making unrealistic or myopic assumptions about the system's requirements and environment. The decisions taken during this formulation are crucial for satisfying requirements. In environments which are characterized by uncertainty and dynamism, deviation from these assumptions is the norm and may trigger 'surprises'. Our method allows designers to make explicit links between the possible emergence of surprises, risks and design trade-offs. The method can be used to explore the design decisions for self-adaptive systems and choose among decisions that better fulfil (or rather partially fulfil) non-functional requirements and address their trade-offs. The analysis can also provide designers with valuable input for refining the adaptation decisions to balance, for example, resilience (i.e. Satisfiability of non-functional requirements and their trade-offs) and stability (i.e. Minimizing the frequency of adaptation). The objective is to provide designers of self adaptive systems with a basis for multi-dimensional what-if analysis to revise and improve the understanding of the environment and its effect on non-functional requirements and thereafter decision-making. We have applied the method to a wireless sensor network for flood prediction. The application shows that the method gives rise to questions that were not explicitly asked before at design-time and assists designers in the process of risk-aware, what-if and trade-off analysis.

A probabilistic indirect adaptive control for systems with input-dependent noise

A probabilistic indirect adaptive controller is proposed for the general nonlinear multivariate class of discrete time system. The proposed probabilistic framework incorporates input–dependent noise prediction parameters in the derivation of the optimal control law. Moreover, because noise can be nonstationary in practice, the proposed adaptive control algorithm provides an elegant method for estimating and tracking the noise. For illustration purposes, the developed method is applied to the affine class of nonlinear multivariate discrete time systems and the desired result is obtained: the optimal control law is determined by solving a cubic equation and the distribution of the tracking error is shown to be Gaussian with zero mean. The efficiency of the proposed scheme is demonstrated numerically through the simulation of an affine nonlinear system.

Decision–making Support Systems as Personal Intellectual Device of a Decision–maker

The problems of the cognitive development of subject “perception” are discussed in the thesis: from the object being studied and means of action till the single system “subject – modus operandi of subject – object”. Problems of increasing adequacy of models of “live” nature are analyzed. The concept of developing decisionmaking support systems as expert systems to decision-making support systems as personal device of a decisionmaker is discussed. The experience of the development of qualitative prediction on the basis of polyvalent dependences, represented by a decision tree, which realizes the concept of “plural subjective determinism”, is analyzed. The examples of applied systems prediction of ecological-economic and social processes are given. The ways of their development are discussed.

A predictive in vitro model of the impact of drugs with anticholinergic properties on human neuronal and astrocytic systems

The link between off-target anticholinergic effects of medications and acute cognitive impairment in older adults requires urgent investigation. We aimed to determine whether a relevant in vitro model may aid the identification of anticholinergic responses to drugs and the prediction of anticholinergic risk during polypharmacy. In this preliminary study we employed a co-culture of human-derived neurons and astrocytes (NT2.N/A) derived from the NT2 cell line. NT2.N/A cells possess much of the functionality of mature neurons and astrocytes, key cholinergic phenotypic markers and muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (mAChRs). The cholinergic response of NT2 astrocytes to the mAChR agonist oxotremorine was examined using the fluorescent dye fluo-4 to quantitate increases in intracellular calcium [Ca2+]i. Inhibition of this response by drugs classified as severe (dicycloverine, amitriptyline), moderate (cyclobenzaprine) and possible (cimetidine) on the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale, was examined after exposure to individual and pairs of compounds. Individually, dicycloverine had the most significant effect regarding inhibition of the astrocytic cholinergic response to oxotremorine, followed by amitriptyline then cyclobenzaprine and cimetidine, in agreement with the ACB scale. In combination, dicycloverine with cyclobenzaprine had the most significant effect, followed by dicycloverine with amitriptyline. The order of potency of the drugs in combination frequently disagreed with predicted ACB scores derived from summation of the individual drug scores, suggesting current scales may underestimate the effect of polypharmacy. Overall, this NT2.N/A model may be appropriate for further investigation of adverse anticholinergic effects of multiple medications, in order to inform clinical choices of suitable drug use in the elderly.

Selfstructurized Systems

The problems of constructing the selfsrtucturized systems of memory of intelligence information processing tools, allowing formation of associative links in the memory, hierarchical organization and classification, generating concepts in the process of the information input, are discussed. The principles and methods for realization of selfstructurized systems on basis of hierarchic network structures of some special class – growing pyramidal network are studied. The algorithms for building, learning and recognition on basis of such type network structures are proposed. The examples of practical application are demonstrated.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

The B-Terminal Busy Probability Prediction

In the teletraffic engineering of all the telecommunication networks, parameters characterizing the terminal traffic are used. One of the most important of them is the probability of finding the called (B-terminal) busy. This parameter is studied in some of the first and last papers in Teletraffic Theory. We propose a solution in this topic in the case of (virtual) channel systems, such as PSTN and GSM. We propose a detailed conceptual traffic model and, based on it, an analytical macro-state model of the system in stationary state, with: Bernoulli– Poisson–Pascal input flow; repeated calls; limited number of homogeneous terminals; losses due to abandoned and interrupted dialling, blocked and interrupted switching, not available intent terminal, blocked and abandoned ringing and abandoned conversation. Proposed in this paper approach may help in determination of many network traffic characteristics at session level, in performance evaluation of the next generation mobile networks.

A geometrical model for surface roughness prediction when face milling Al 7075-T7351 with square insert tools

Surface quality is important in engineering and a vital aspect of it is surface roughness, since it plays an important role in wear resistance, ductility, tensile, and fatigue strength for machined parts. This paper reports on a research study on the development of a geometrical model for surface roughness prediction when face milling with square inserts. The model is based on a geometrical analysis of the recreation of the tool trail left on the machined surface. The model has been validated with experimental data obtained for high speed milling of aluminum alloy (Al 7075-T7351) when using a wide range of cutting speed, feed per tooth, axial depth of cut and different values of tool nose radius (0.8. mm and 2.5. mm), using the Taguchi method as the design of experiments. The experimental roughness was obtained by measuring the surface roughness of the milled surfaces with a non-contact profilometer. The developed model can be used for any combination of material workpiece and tool, when tool flank wear is not considered and is suitable for using any tool diameter with any number of teeth and tool nose radius. The results show that the developed model achieved an excellent performance with almost 98% accuracy in terms of predicting the surface roughness when compared to the experimental data. © 2014 The Society of Manufacturing Engineers.