Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

Using a causal smoothing to improve the performance of an on-line neural network glucose prediction algorithm

This work evaluates a spline-based smoothing method applied to the output of a glucose predictor. Methods:Our on-line prediction algorithm is based on a neural network model (NNM). We trained/validated the NNM with a prediction horizon of 30 minutes using 39/54 profiles of patients monitored with the Guardian® Real-Time continuous glucose monitoring system The NNM output is smoothed by fitting a causal cubic spline. The assessment parameters are the error (RMSE), mean delay (MD) and the high-frequency noise (HFCrms). The HFCrms is the root-mean-square values of the high-frequency components isolated with a zero-delay non-causal filter. HFCrms is 2.90±1.37 (mg/dl) for the original profiles.

Prediction of wake effects on wind farm power production using a RANS approach. Part II. Offshore: Case studies from the UPWIND project

The estimation of power losses due to wind turbine wakes is crucial to understanding overall wind farm economics. This is especially true for large offshore wind farms, as it represents the primary source of losses in available power, given the regular arrangement of rotors, their generally largerdiameter and the lower ambient turbulence level, all of which conspire to dramatically affect wake expansion and, consequently, the power deficit. Simulation of wake effects in offshore wind farms (in reasonable computational time) is currently feasible using CFD tools. An elliptic CFD model basedon the actuator disk method and various RANS turbulence closure schemes is tested and validated using power ratios extracted from Horns Rev and Nysted wind farms, collected as part of the EU-funded UPWIND project. The primary focus of the present work is on turbulence modeling, as turbulent mixing is the main mechanism for flow recovery inside wind farms. A higher-order approach, based on the anisotropic RSM model, is tested to better take into account the imbalance in the length scales inside and outside of the wake, not well reproduced by current two-equation closure schemes.

An online failure prediction system for private IaaS platforms

The size and complexity of cloud environments make them prone to failures. The traditional approach to achieve a high dependability for these systems relies on constant monitoring. However, this method is purely reactive. A more proactive approach is provided by online failure prediction (OFP) techniques. In this paper, we describe a OFP system for private IaaS platforms, currently under development, that combines di_erent types of data input, including monitoring information, event logs, and failure data. In addition, this system operates at both the physical and virtual planes of the cloud, taking into account the relationships between nodes and failure propagation mechanisms that are unique to cloud environments.

Measurements and Prediction of Pedestrian Walking Loads on an Aluminium Catwalk

During the last two decades the topic of human induced vibration has attracted a lot of attention among civil engineering practitioners and academics alike. Usually this type of problem may be encountered in pedestrian footbridges or floors of paperless offices. Slender designs are becoming increasingly popular, and as a consequence, the importance of paying attention to vibration serviceability also increases. This paper resumes the results obtained from measurements taken at different points of an aluminium catwalk which is 6 m in length by 0.6 m in width. Measurements were carried out when subjecting the structure to different actions:1)Static test: a steel cylinder of 35 kg was placed in the middle of the catwalk; 2)Dynamic test: this test consists of exciting the structure with singles impulses; 3)Dynamic test: people walking on the catwalk. Identification of the mechanical properties of the structure is an achievement of the paper. Indirect methods were used to estimate properties including the support stiffness, the beam bending stiffness, the mass of the structure (using Rayleigh method and iterative matrix method), the natural frequency (using the time domain and frequency domain analysis) and the damping ratio (by calculating the logarithmic decrement). Experimental results and numerical predictions for the response of an aluminium catwalk subjected to walking loads have been compared. The damping of this light weight structure depends on the amplitude of vibration which complicates the tuning of a structural model. In the light of the results obtained it seems that the used walking load model is not appropriate as the predicted transient vibration values (TTVs) are much higher than the measured ones.

Model Based On-Line Energy Prediction System for Semi-Autonomous Mobile Robots

Maximizing energy autonomy is a consistent challenge when deploying mobile robots in ionizing radiation or other hazardous environments. Having a reliable robot system is essential for successful execution of missions and to avoid manual recovery of the robots in environments that are harmful to human beings. For deployment of robots missions at short notice, the ability to know beforehand the energy required for performing the task is essential. This paper presents a on-line method for predicting energy requirements based on the pre-determined power models for a mobile robot. A small mobile robot, Khepera III is used for the experimental study and the results are promising with high prediction accuracy. The applications of the energy prediction models in energy optimization and simulations are also discussed along with examples of significant energy savings.

Assessment of expected damage on buildings subjected to Lorca earthquake through an energy-based seismic index method and nonlinear dynamic response analyses

The city of Lorca (Spain) was hit on May 11th, 2011, by two consecutive earth-quakes of magnitudes 4.6 and 5.2 Mw, causing casualties and important damage in buildings. Many of the damaged structures were reinforced concrete frames with wide beams. This study quantifies the expected level of damage on this structural type in the case of the Lorca earth-quake by means of a seismic index Iv that compares the energy input by the earthquake with the energy absorption/dissipation capacity of the structure. The prototype frames investigated represent structures designed in two time periods (1994–2002 and 2003–2008), in which the applicable codes were different. The influence of the masonry infill walls and the proneness of the frames to concentrate damage in a given story were further investigated through nonlinear dynamic response analyses. It is found that (1) the seismic index method predicts levels of damage that range from moderate/severe to complete collapse; this prediction is consistent with the observed damage; (2) the presence of masonry infill walls makes the structure very prone to damage concentration and reduces the overall seismic capacity of the building; and (3) a proper hierarchy of strength between beams and columns that guarantees the formation of a strong column-weak beam mechanism (as prescribed by seismic codes), as well as the adoption of counter-measures to avoid the negative interaction between non-structural infill walls and the main frame, would have reduced the level of damage from Iv=1 (collapse) to about Iv=0.5 (moderate/severe damage)

Aeroacoustic noise prediction in high speed trains due to attached and detached flow

This paper aims to set out the influence of the flow field around high speed trains in open field. To achieve this parametric analysis of the sound pressure inside the train was performed. Three vibroacoustic models of a characteristic train section are used to predict the noise inside the train in open field by using finite element method FEM, boundary element method (BEM) and statistical energy analysis (SEA) depending on the frequency range of analysis. The turbulent boundary layer excitation is implemented as the only airborne noise source, in order to focus on the study of the attached and detached flow in the surface of the train. The power spectral densities of the pressure fluctuation in the train surface proposed by [Cockburn and Roberson 1974, Rennison et al. 2009] are applied on the exterior surface of the structural subsystems in the vibroacoustic models. An increase in the sound pressure level up to10 dB can be appreciated due to the detachment of the flow around the train. These results highlight the importance to determine the detached regions prediction, making critical the airborne noise due to turbulent boundary layer.

System failure prediction through rare-events elastic-net logistic regression

Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.

Validation and aplication of Bioelectrical Impedance (BIA) method to determine body and carcass composition and nutrient retention of growing rabbits = Validación y aplicación de la técnica de la Impedancia Bioeléctrica (BIA) para determinar la composición corporal, de la canal y la retención de nutrientes de conejos en crecimiento

Los objetivos de esta tesis fueron 1) obtener y validar ecuaciones de predicción para determinar in vivo la composición corporal y de la canal de conejos en crecimiento de 25 a 77 días de vida utilizando la técnica de la Impedancia Bioeléctrica (BIA), y 2) evaluar su aplicación para determinar diferencias en la composición corporal y de la canal, así como la retención de nutrientes de animales alimentados con diferentes fuentes y niveles de grasa. El primer estudio se realizó para determinar y después validar, usando datos independientes, las ecuaciones de predicción obtenidas para determinar in vivo la composición corporal de los conejos en crecimiento. Se utilizaron 150 conejos a 5 edades distintas (25, 35, 49, 63 y 77 días de vida), con un rango de pesos entre 231 y 3138 g. Para determinar los valores de resistencia (Rs,) and reactancia (Xc,) se usó un terminal (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA) con cuatro electrodos. Igualmente se registró la distancia entre electrodos internos (D), la longitud corporal (L) y el peso vivo (PV) de cada animal. En cada edad, los animales fueron molidos y congelados (-20 ºC) para su posterior análisis químico (MS, grasa, proteína, cenizas y EB). El contenido en grasa y energía de los animales se incrementó, mientras que los contenidos en proteína, cenizas y agua de los animales disminuyeron con la edad. Los valores medios de Rs, Xc, impedancia (Z), L y D fueron 83.5 ± 23.1 , 18.2 ± 3.8 , 85.6 ± 22.9 , 30.6 ± 6.9 cm y 10.8 ± 3.1 cm. Se realizó un análisis de regresión lineal múltiple para determinar las ecuaciones de predicción, utilizando los valores de PV, L and Z como variables independientes. Las ecuaciones obtenidas para estimar los contenidos en agua (g), PB (g), grasa (g), cenizas (g) and EB (MJ) tuvieron un coeficiente de determinación de (R2) de 0.99, 0.99, 0.97, 0.98 y 0.99, y los errores medios de predicción relativos (EMPR) fueron: 2.79, 6.15, 24.3, 15.2 y 10.6%, respectivamente. Cuando el contenido en agua se expresó como porcentaje, los valores de R2 y EMPR fueron 0.85 and 2.30%, respectivamente. Al predecir los contenidos en proteína (%MS), grasa (%MS), cenizas (%MS) y energía (kJ/100 g MS), se obtuvieron valores de 0.79, 0.83, 0.71 y 0.86 para R2, y 5.04, 18.9, 12.0 y 3.19% para EMPR. La reactancia estuvo negativamente correlacionada con el contenido en agua, cenizas y PB (r = -0.32, P < 0.0001; r = -0.20, P < 0.05; r = -0.26, P < 0.01) y positivamente correlacionada con la grasa y la energía (r = 0.23 y r = 0.24; P < 0.01). Sin embargo, Rs estuvo positivamente correlacionada con el agua, las cenizas y la PB (r = 0.31, P < 0.001; r = 0.28, P < 0.001; r = 0.37, P < 0.0001) y negativamente con la grasa y la energía (r = -0.36 y r = -0.35; P < 0.0001). Igualmente la edad estuvo negativamente correlacionada con el contenido en agua, cenizas y proteína (r = -0.79; r = -0.68 y r = -0.80; P < 0.0001) y positivamente con la grasa y la energía (r = 0.78 y r = 0.81; P < 0.0001). Se puede concluir que el método BIA es una técnica buena y no invasiva para estimar in vivo la composición corporal de conejos en crecimiento de 25 a 77 días de vida. El objetivo del segundo estudio fue determinar y validar con datos independientes las ecuaciones de predicción obtenidas para estimar in vivo la composición de la canal eviscerada mediante el uso de BIA en un grupo de conejos de 25 a 77 días, así como testar su aplicación para predecir la retención de nutrientes y calcular las eficacias de retención de la energía y del nitrógeno. Se utilizaron 75 conejos agrupados en 5 edades (25, 35, 49, 63 y 77 días de vida) con unos pesos que variaron entre 196 y 3260 g. Para determinar los valores de resistencia (Rs, ) y reactancia (Xc, ) se usó un terminal (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA) con cuatro electrodos. Igualmente se registró la distancia entre electrodos internos (D), la longitud corporal (L) y el peso vivo (PV) del cada animal. En cada edad, los animales fueron aturdidos y desangrados. Su piel, vísceras y contenido digestivo fueron retirados, y la canal oreada fue pesada y molida para posteriores análisis (MS, grasa, PB, cenizas y EB). Los contenidos en energía y grasa aumentaron mientras que los de agua, cenizas y proteína disminuyeron con la edad. Los valores medios de Rs, Xc, impedancia (Z), L y D fueron 95.9±23.9 , 19.5±4.7 , 98.0±23.8 , 20.6±6.3 cm y 13.7±3.1 cm. Se realizó un análisis de regresión linear múltiple para determinar las ecuaciones de predicción, utilizando los valores de PV, L and Z como variables independientes. Los coeficientes de determinación (R2) de las ecuaciones obtenidas para estimar los contenidos en agua (g), PB (g), grasa (g), cenizas (g) and EB (MJ) fueron: 0.99, 0.99, 0.95, 0.96 y 0.98, mientras que los errores medios de predicción relativos (EMPR) fueron: 4.20, 5.48, 21.9, 9.10 y 6.77%, respectivamente. Cuando el contenido en agua se expresó como porcentaje, los valores de R2 y EMPR fueron 0.79 y 1.62%, respectivamente. Cuando se realizó la predicción de los contenidos en proteína (%MS), grasa (%MS), cenizas (%MS) y energía (kJ/100 g MS), los valores de R2 fueron 0.68, 0.76, 0.66 and 0.82, y los de RMPE: 3.22, 10.5, 5.82 and 2.54%, respectivamente. La reactancia estuvo directamente correlacionada con el contenido en grasa (r = 0.24, P < 0.05), mientras que la resistencia guardó una correlación positiva con los contenidos en agua, cenizas y proteína (r = 0.55, P < 0.001; r = 0.54, P < 0.001; r = 0.40, P < 0.005) y negativa con la grasa y la energía (r = -0.44 y r = -0.55; P < 0.001). Igualmente la edad estuvo negativamente correlacionada con los contenidos en agua, cenizas y PB (r = -0.94; r = -0.85 y r = -0.75; P < 0.0001) y positivamente con la grasa y la energía (r = 0.89 y r = 0.90; P < 0.0001). Se estudió la eficacia global de retención de la energía (ERE) y del nitrógeno (ERN) durante todo el periodo de cebo (35-63 d), Los valores de ERE fueron 20.4±7.29%, 21.0±4.18% and 20.8±2.79% en los periodos 35 a 49, 49 a 63 y 35 a 63 d, respectivamente. ERN fue 46.9±11.7%, 34.5±7.32% y 39.1±3.23% para los mismos periodos. La energía fue retenida en los tejidos para crecimiento con una eficiencia del 52.5% y la eficiencia de retención de la energía como proteína y grasa fue de 33.3 y 69.9% respectivamente. La eficiencia de utilización del nitrógeno para crecimiento fue cercana al 77%. Este trabajo muestra como el método BIA es técnica buena y no invasiva para determinar in vivo la composición de la canal y la retención de nutrientes en conejos en crecimiento de 25 a 77 días de vida. En el tercer estudio, se llevaron a cabo dos experimentos con el fin de investigar los efectos del nivel de inclusión y de la fuente de grasa, sobre los rendimientos productivos, la mortalidad, la retención de nutrientes y la composición corporal total y de la canal eviscerada de conejos en crecimiento de 34 a 63 d de vida. En el Exp. 1 se formularon 3 dietas con un diseño experimental factorial 3 x 2 con el tipo de grasa utilizada: Aceite de Soja (SBO), Lecitinas de Soja (SLO) y Manteca (L) y el nivel de inclusión (1.5 y 4%) como factores principales. El Exp. 2 también fue diseñado con una estructura factorial 3 x 2, pero usando SBO, Aceite de Pescado (FO) y Aceite de Palmiste como fuentes de grasa, incluidas a los mismos niveles que en el Exp. 1. En ambos experimentos 180 animales fueron alojados en jaulas individuales (n=30) y 600 en jaulas colectivas en grupos de 5 animales (n=20). Los animales alimentados con un 4% de grasa añadida tuvieron unos consumos diarios y unos índices de conversión más bajos que aquellos alimentados con las dietas con un 1.5% de grasa. En los animales alojados en colectivo del Exp. 1, el consumo fue un 4.8% más alto en los que consumieron las dietas que contenían manteca que en los animales alimentados con las dietas SBO (P = 0.036). La inclusión de manteca tendió a reducir la mortalidad (P = 0.067) en torno al 60% y al 25% con respecto a las dietas con SBO y SLO, respectivamente. La mortalidad aumentó con el nivel máximo de inclusión de SLO (14% vs. 1%, P < 0.01), sin observarse un efecto negativo sobre la mortalidad con el nivel más alto de inclusión de las demás fuentes de grasa utilizadas. En los animales alojados colectivo del Exp. 2 se encontró una disminución del consumo (11%), peso vivo a 63 d (4.8%) y de la ganancia diaria de peso (7.8%) con la inclusión de aceite de pescado con respecto a otras dietas (P < 0.01). Los dos últimos parámetros se vieron especialmente más reducidos cuando en las dietas se incluyó el nivel más alto de FO (5.6 y 9.5%, respectivamente, (P < 0.01)). Los animales alojados individualmente mostraron unos resultados productivos muy similares. La inclusión de aceite pescado tendió (P = 0.078) a aumentar la mortalidad (13.2%) con respecto al aceite de palmiste (6.45%), siendo intermedia para las dietas que contenían SBO (8.10%). La fuente o el nivel de grasa no afectaron la composición corporal total o de la canal eviscerada de los animales. Un incremento en el nivel de grasa dio lugar a una disminución de la ingesta de nitrógeno digestible (DNi) (1.83 vs. 1.92 g/d; P = 0.068 en Exp. 1 y 1.79 vs. 1.95 g/d; P = 0.014 en Exp. 2). Debido a que el nitrógeno retenido (NR) en la canal fue similar para ambos niveles (0.68 g/d (Exp. 1) y 0.71 g/d (Exp. 2)), la eficacia total de retención del nitrógeno (ERN) aumentó con el nivel máximo de inclusión de grasa, pero de forma significativa únicamente en el Exp. 1 (34.9 vs. 37.8%; P < 0.0001), mientras que en el Exp. 2 se encontró una tendencia (36.2 vs. 38.0% en Exp. 2; P < 0.064). Como consecuencia, la excreción de nitrógeno en heces fue menor en los animales alimentados con el nivel más alto de grasa (0.782 vs. 0.868 g/d; P = 0.0001 en Exp. 1, y 0.745 vs. 0.865 g/d; P < 0.0001 en Exp.2) al igual que el nitrógeno excretado en orina (0.702 vs. 0.822 g/d; P < 0.0001 en Exp. 1 y 0.694 vs. 0.7999 g/d; P = 0.014 en Exp.2). Aunque no hubo diferencias en la eficacia total de retención de la energía (ERE), la energía excretada en heces disminuyó al aumentar el nivel de inclusión de grasa (142 vs. 156 Kcal/d; P = 0.0004 en Exp. 1 y 144 vs. 154 g/d; P = 0.050 en Exp. 2). Sin embargo, la energía excretada como orina y en forma de calor fue mayor en el los animales del Exp. 1 alimentados con el nivel más alto de grasa (216 vs. 204 Kcal/d; P < 0.017). Se puede concluir que la manteca y el aceite de palmiste pueden ser considerados como fuentes alternativas al aceite de soja debido a la reducción de la mortalidad, sin efectos negativos sobre los rendimientos productivos o la retención de nutrientes. La inclusión de aceite de pescado empeoró los rendimientos productivos y la mortalidad durante el periodo de crecimiento. Un aumento en el nivel de grasa mejoró el índice de conversión y la eficacia total de retención de nitrógeno. ABSTRACT The aim of this Thesis is: 1) to obtain and validate prediction equations to determine in vivo whole body and carcass composition using the Bioelectrical Impedance (BIA) method in growing rabbits from 25 to 77 days of age, and 2) to study its application to determine differences on whole body and carcass chemical composition, and nutrient retention of animals fed different fat levels and sources. The first study was conducted to determine and later validate, by using independent data, the prediction equations obtained to assess in vivo the whole body composition of growing rabbits. One hundred and fifty rabbits grouped at 5 different ages (25, 35, 49, 63 and 77 days) and weighing from 231 to 3138 g were used. A four terminal body composition analyser was used to obtain resistance (Rs, ) and reactance (Xc, ) values (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA). The distance between internal electrodes (D, cm), body length (L, cm) and live BW of each animal were also registered. At each selected age, animals were slaughtered, ground and frozen (-20 ºC) for later chemical analyses (DM, fat, CP, ash and GE). Fat and energy body content increased with the age, while protein, ash, and water decreased. Mean values of Rs, Xc, impedance (Z), L and D were 83.5 ± 23.1 , 18.2 ± 3.8 , 85.6 ± 22.9 , 30.6 ± 6.9 cm and 10.8 ± 3.1 cm. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the prediction equations, using BW, L and Z data as independent variables. Equations obtained to estimate water (g), CP (g), fat (g), ash (g) and GE (MJ) content had, respectively, coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.99, 0.99, 0.97, 0.98 and 0.99, and the relative mean prediction error (RMPE) was: 2.79, 6.15, 24.3, 15.2 and 10.6%, respectively. When water was expressed as percentage, the R2 and RMPE were 0.85 and 2.30%, respectively. When prediction of the content of protein (%DM), fat (%DM), ash (%DM) and energy (kJ/100 g DM) was done, values of 0.79, 0.83, 0.71 and 0.86 for R2, and 5.04, 18.9, 12.0 and 3.19% for RMPE, respectively, were obtained. Reactance was negatively correlated with water, ash and CP content (r = -0.32, P < 0.0001; r = -0.20, P < 0.05; r = -0.26, P < 0.01) and positively correlated with fat and GE (r = 0.23 and r = 0.24; P < 0.01). Otherwise, resistance was positively correlated with water, ash and CP (r = 0.31, P < 0.001; r = 0.28, P < 0.001; r = 0.37, P < 0.0001) and negatively correlated with fat and energy (r = -0.36 and r = -0.35; P < 0.0001). Moreover, age was negatively correlated with water, ash and CP content (r = -0.79; r = -0.68 and r = -0.80; P < 0.0001) and positively correlated with fat and energy (r = 0.78 and r = 0.81; P < 0.0001). It could be concluded that BIA is a non-invasive good method to estimate in vivo whole body composition of growing rabbits from 25 to 77 days of age. The aim of the second study was to determine and validate with independent data, the prediction equations obtained to estimate in vivo carcass composition of growing rabbits by using the results of carcass chemical composition and BIA values in a group of rabbits from 25 to 77 days. Also its potential application to predict nutrient retention and overall energy and nitrogen retention efficiencies was analysed. Seventy five rabbits grouped at 5 different ages (25, 35, 49, 63 and 77 days) with weights ranging from 196 to 3260 g were used. A four terminal body composition analyser (Model BIA-101, RJL Systems, Detroit, MI USA) was used to obtain resistance (Rs, ) and reactance (Xc, ) values. The distance between internal electrodes (D, cm), body length (L, cm) and live weight (BW, g) were also registered. At each selected age, all the animals were stunned and bled. The skin, organs and digestive content were removed, and the chilled carcass were weighed and processed for chemical analyses (DM, fat, CP, ash and GE). Energy and fat increased with the age, while CP, ash, and water decreased. Mean values of Rs, Xc, impedance (Z), L and D were 95.9±23.9 , 19.5±4.7 , 98.0±23.8 , 20.6±6.3 cm y 13.7±3.1 cm. A multiple linear regression analysis was done to determine the equations, using BW, L and Z data as parameters. Coefficient of determination (R2) of the equations obtained to estimate water (g), CP (g), fat (g), ash (g) and GE (MJ) content were: 0.99, 0.99, 0.95, 0.96 and 0.98, and relative mean prediction error (RMPE) were: 4.20, 5.48, 21.9, 9.10 and 6.77%, respectively. When water content was expressed as percentage, the R2 and RMPE were 0.79 and 1.62%, respectively. When prediction of protein (%DM), fat (%DM), ash (%DM) and energy (kJ/100 g DM) content was done, R2 values were 0.68, 0.76, 0.66 and 0.82, and RMPE: 3.22, 10.5, 5.82 and 2.54%, respectively. Reactance was positively correlated with fat content (r = 0.24, P < 0.05) while resistance was positively correlated with water, ash and protein carcass content (r = 0.55, P < 0.001; r = 0.54, P < 0.001; r = 0.40, P < 0.005) and negatively correlated with fat and energy (r = -0.44 and r = -0.55; P < 0.001). Moreover, age was negatively correlated with water, ash and CP content (r = -0.97, r = -0.95 and r = -0.89, P < 0.0001) and positively correlated with fat and GE (r = 0.95 and r = 0.97; P < 0.0001). In the whole growing period (35-63 d), overall energy retention efficiency (ERE) and nitrogen retention efficiency (NRE) were studied. The ERE values were 20.4±7.29%, 21.0±4.18% and 20.8±2.79%, from 35 to 49, 49 to 63 and from 35 to 63 d, respectively. NRE was 46.9±11.7%, 34.5±7.32% and 39.1±3.23% for the same periods. Energy was retained in body tissues for growth with an efficiency of approximately 52.5% and efficiency of the energy for protein and fat retention was 33.3 and 69.9%, respectively. Efficiency of utilization of nitrogen for growth was near to 77%. This work shows that BIA it’s a non-invasive and good method to estimate in vivo carcass composition and nutrient retention of growing rabbits from 25 to 77 days of age. In the third study, two experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of the fat addition and source, on performance, mortality, nutrient retention, and the whole body and carcass chemical composition of growing rabbits from 34 to 63 d. In Exp. 1 three diets were arranged in a 3 x 2 factorial structure with the source of fat: Soybean oil (SBO), Soya Lecithin Oil (SLO) and Lard (L) and the dietary fat inclusion level (1.5 and 4%) as the main factors. Exp. 2 had also arranged as a 3 x 2 factorial design, but using SBO, Fish Oil (FO) and Palmkernel Oil (PKO) as fat sources, and included at the same levels than in Exp. 1. In both experiments 180 animals were allocated in individual cages (n=30) and 600 in collectives cages, in groups of 5 animals (n=20). Animals fed with 4% dietary fat level showed lower DFI and FCR than those fed diets with 1.5%. In collective housing of Exp. 1, DFI was a 4.8% higher in animals fed with diets containing lard than SBO (P = 0.036), being intermediate for diet with SLO. Inclusion of lard also tended to reduce mortality (P = 0.067) around 60% and 25% with respect SBO and SLO diets, respectively. Mortality increased with the greatest level of soya lecithin (14% vs. 1%, P < 0.01). In Exp. 2 a decrease of DFI (11%), BW at 63 d (4.8%) and DWG (7.8%) were observed with the inclusion of fish oil with respect the other two diets (P < 0.01). These last two traits impaired with the highest level of fish oil (5.6 and 9.5%, respectively, (P < 0.01)). Animals housed individually showed similar performance results. The inclusion of fish oil also tended to increase (P = 0.078) mortality (13.2%) with respect palmkernel oil (6.45%), being mortality of SBO intermediate (8.10%). Fat source and level did not affect the whole body or carcass chemical composition. An increase of the fat sources addition led to a decrease of the digestible nitrogen intake (DNi) (1.83 vs. 1.92 g/d; P = 0.068 in Exp. 1 and 1.79 vs. 1.95 g/d; P = 0.014 in Exp. 2). As the nitrogen retained (NR) in the carcass was similar for both fat levels (0.68 g/d (Exp. 1) and 0.71 g/d (Exp. 2)), the overall efficiency of N retention (NRE) increased with the highest level of fat, but only reached significant level in Exp. 1 (34.9 vs. 37.8%; P < 0.0001), while in Exp. 2 a tendency was found (36.2 vs. 38.0% in Exp. 2; P < 0.064). Consequently, nitrogen excretion in faeces was lower in animals fed with the highest level of fat (0.782 vs. 0.868 g/d; P = 0.0001 in Exp. 1, and 0.745 vs. 0.865 g/d; P < 0.0001 in Exp.2). The same effect was observed with the nitrogen excreted as urine (0.702 vs. 0.822 g/d; P < 0.0001 in Exp. 1 and 0.694 vs. 0.7999 g/d; P = 0.014 in Exp.2). Although there were not differences in ERE, the energy excreted in faeces decreased as fat level increased (142 vs. 156 Kcal/d; P = 0.0004 in Exp. 1 and 144 vs. 154 g/d; P = 0.050 in Exp. 2). In Exp. 1 the energy excreted as urine and heat production was significantly higher when animals were fed with the highest level of dietary fat (216 vs. 204 Kcal/d; P < 0.017). It can be concluded that lard and palmkernel oil can be considered as alternative sources to soybean oil due to the reduction of the mortality, without negative effects on performances or nutrient retention. Inclusion of fish impaired animals´ productivity and mortality. An increase of the dietary fat level improved FCR and overall protein efficiency retention.

Pedestrian Motion Prediction: A Graph Based Approach

A novel pedestrian motion prediction technique is presented in this paper. Its main achievement regards to none previous observation, any knowledge of pedestrian trajectories nor the existence of possible destinations is required; hence making it useful for autonomous surveillance applications. Prediction only requires initial position of the pedestrian and a 2D representation of the scenario as occupancy grid. First, it uses the Fast Marching Method (FMM) to calculate the pedestrian arrival time for each position in the map and then, the likelihood that the pedestrian reaches those positions is estimated. The technique has been tested with synthetic and real scenarios. In all cases, accurate probability maps as well as their representative graphs were obtained with low computational cost.

Optimal prediction of underresolved dynamics

A method is presented for computing the average solution of problems that are too complicated for adequate resolution, but where information about the statistics of the solution is available. The method involves computing average derivatives by interpolation based on linear regression, and an updating of a measure constrained by the available crude information. Examples are given.

Statistical significance of protein structure prediction by threading

In this study, we estimate the statistical significance of structure prediction by threading. We introduce a single parameter ɛ that serves as a universal measure determining the probability that the best alignment is indeed a native-like analog. Parameter ɛ takes into account both length and composition of the query sequence and the number of decoys in threading simulation. It can be computed directly from the query sequence and potential of interactions, eliminating the need for sequence reshuffling and realignment. Although our theoretical analysis is general, here we compare its predictions with the results of gapless threading. Finally we estimate the number of decoys from which the native structure can be found by existing potentials of interactions. We discuss how this analysis can be extended to determine the optimal gap penalties for any sequence-structure alignment (threading) method, thus optimizing it to maximum possible performance.

Prediction of operons in microbial genomes

Operon structure is an important organization feature of bacterial genomes. Many sets of genes occur in the same order on multiple genomes; these conserved gene groupings represent candidate operons. This study describes a computational method to estimate the likelihood that such conserved gene sets form operons. The method was used to analyze 34 bacterial and archaeal genomes, and yielded more than 7600 pairs of genes that are highly likely (P ≥ 0.98) to belong to the same operon. The sensitivity of our method is 30–50% for the Escherichia coli genome. The predicted gene pairs are available from our World Wide Web site http://www.tigr.org/tigr-scripts/operons/operons.cgi.

Recent improvements in prediction of protein structure by global optimization of a potential energy function

Recent improvements of a hierarchical ab initio or de novo approach for predicting both α and β structures of proteins are described. The united-residue energy function used in this procedure includes multibody interactions from a cumulant expansion of the free energy of polypeptide chains, with their relative weights determined by Z-score optimization. The critical initial stage of the hierarchical procedure involves a search of conformational space by the conformational space annealing (CSA) method, followed by optimization of an all-atom model. The procedure was assessed in a recent blind test of protein structure prediction (CASP4). The resulting lowest-energy structures of the target proteins (ranging in size from 70 to 244 residues) agreed with the experimental structures in many respects. The entire experimental structure of a cyclic α-helical protein of 70 residues was predicted to within 4.3 Å α-carbon (Cα) rms deviation (rmsd) whereas, for other α-helical proteins, fragments of roughly 60 residues were predicted to within 6.0 Å Cα rmsd. Whereas β structures can now be predicted with the new procedure, the success rate for α/β- and β-proteins is lower than that for α-proteins at present. For the β portions of α/β structures, the Cα rmsd's are less than 6.0 Å for contiguous fragments of 30–40 residues; for one target, three fragments (of length 10, 23, and 28 residues, respectively) formed a compact part of the tertiary structure with a Cα rmsd less than 6.0 Å. Overall, these results constitute an important step toward the ab initio prediction of protein structure solely from the amino acid sequence.