Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Flexicurity: Core Features of Portuguese Debate

According to the OECD, Portugal is an example of a country with a very high rigidity in the labour market. At the same time, Portugal is an example of a country with a high percentage or workers with short-term contracts. These conditions have led to an ongoing public discussion concerning the nee to introduce more flexibility while maintaining work security. In this paper we analyze the current situation concerning security and rigidity in the labour market and discuss the flexicurity in the Portuguese context.

Perceived health in the Portuguese population aged ? 35

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the exploratory relationship between determinants of health, life satisfaction, locus of control, attitudes and behaviors and health related quality of life in an adult population. METHODS Observational study (analytical and cross-sectional) with a quantitative methodological basis. The sample was composed oy 1,214 inhabitants aged ≥ 35 in 31 civil parishes in the County of Coimbra, Portugal, 2011-2012. An anonymous and voluntary health survey was conducted, which collected the following information: demographic, clinical record, health and lifestyle behaviors; health related quality of life (Medical Outcomes Study, Short Form-36); health locus of control; survey of health attitudes and behavior, and quality of life index. Pearson’s Linear Correlation, t-Student, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney; One-way ANOVA; Brown-Forsythe’s F; Kruskal-Wallis; Multiple Comparisons: Tukey (HSD), Games-Howell and Conover were used in the statistical analysis. RESULTS Health related quality of life was shown to be lower in females, in older age groups, in obese/overweight individuals, widows, unassisted, those living alone, living in rural/suburban areas, those who did not work and with a medium-low socioeconomic level. Respondents with poor/very poor self-perceived health (p < 0.0001), with chronic disease (p < 0.0001), who consumed < 3 meals per day (p ≤ 0.01), who were sedentary, who slept ≤ 6 h/day and had smoked for several years revealed the worst health results. Health related quality of life was positively related with a bigger internal locus, with better health attitudes and behaviors (physical exercise, health and nutritional care, length of dependence) and with different areas of life satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS Better health related quality of life was associated with certain social, psychological, family and health characteristics, a satisfactory lifestyle, better socioeconomic conditions and a good internal locus of control over health attitudes and behaviors.

Forest soil short term response to prescribed fire: an approach by Principal Components Analysis

In the current context of serious climate changes, where the increase of the frequency of some extreme events occurrence can enhance the rate of periods prone to high intensity forest fires, the National Forest Authority often implements, in several Portuguese forest areas, a regular set of measures in order to control the amount of fuel mass availability (PNDFCI, 2008). In the present work we’ll present a preliminary analysis concerning the assessment of the consequences given by the implementation of prescribed fire measures to control the amount of fuel mass in soil recovery, in particular in terms of its water retention capacity, its organic matter content, pH and content of iron. This work is included in a larger study (Meira-Castro, 2009(a); Meira-Castro, 2009(b)). According to the established praxis on the data collection, embodied in multidimensional matrices of n columns (variables in analysis) by p lines (sampled areas at different depths), and also considering the quantitative data nature present in this study, we’ve chosen a methodological approach that considers the multivariate statistical analysis, in particular, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA ) (Góis, 2004). The experiments were carried out in a soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, NW Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years and was submit to prescribed fire in March 2008. The soils samples were collected from five different plots at six different time periods. The methodological option that was adopted have allowed us to identify the most relevant relational structures inside the n variables, the p samples and in two sets at the same time (Garcia-Pereira, 1990). Consequently, and in addition to the traditional outputs produced from the PCA, we have analyzed the influence of both sampling depths and geomorphological environments in the behavior of all variables involved.

Size matters when we talk about corporate social responsibility: the case of portuguese companies

Social responsibility arises as a measure of the corporate policy that goes beyond the production activity, thus covering also the social and environmental activities. This issue has been gaining importance over time. The number of companies that are implementing socially responsible actions has been growing steadily even though it is still centered on large and medium sized companies. Social responsibility is an accessible theme to any company of any size, once the social and environmental issues are resolved through concrete actions, but in the small and micro-sized companies there are factors that inhibit such actions. Some of these factors are: reduced investment capacity; minimal expectations of medium to long term returns; or even the short-term management focus that is aimed at survival. Such facts can be verified in the case of Portuguese companies, where out of the 41 companies certified by SA 8000 only 5 are micro-sized or small and even these are linked to large organizations.

The most Portuguese village in Portugal: tradition in the age of its technical reproducibility

Ethnographic film is often associated with many European countries’ past as colonial powers and the way these countries used film to depict African, American and Asian territories and populations they once ruled. However, ethnographic film also has a European tradition of its own, closely interlaced with the history of ethnography and anthropology as autonomous sciences and with the desire of scholars to represent local, regional and national cultural identities. This paper presents a Portuguese attempt of this sort dating from 1938, when the authoritarian regime organized a national contest to determine which would be Portugal’s most “authentic” village – something other European countries also did. As part of this metonymic contribution to the construction of Portugal’s national identity as an agrarian utopia, a short documentary was shot, sponsored by the same official propaganda office that had organized the contest. In this film, the viewer’s gaze is made to coincide with the one of the national jury visiting the final selection of 12 villages and to whose benefit local scholars had organized all sorts of colourful peasant traditions hoping to cause the strongest impression. The film makes a strong case for the importance of ethnographic film as a relevant instance not only of the iteration of existing European national cultures, but also of the construction of so many of Europe’s national identities and traditions. Suffice to say that even today the village of “Monsanto”, which won the 1938 contest, is still referred to as “Portugal’s most Portuguese village”.

Characterization of the portuguese SSS into the Europe: a contribution

Nowadays, Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is an essential part in European multi-modal transport system, representing approximately thirty-seven per cent of intra-Community transactions in tonnes per kilometre (tkm). Since 2001, the European Shortsea Network (ESN) in partnership with the short-sea Promotion Centres (SPC) of each Member State of the European Union (EU) have managed to make significant progress in the promotion and development of this mode of transport. This paper aims to assess and analyse the SSS of containerised goods in Portugal and its articulation with other EU routes and also other transport modes. The current SSS infrastructure, how the sector is organized, as well as the future perspectives for the sector are also analysed for the case of Portugal. The analyses are based on a survey that was carried out on the logistics operators, navigation agents, freight forwarders, and the leading imports and exports manufacturers in Portugal.

The optimum size of the portuguese public hospital

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The use of technology in Portuguese hospitals: The case of MRI

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Corporate social responsibility reporting: The case of Portuguese hospitals

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Business article: M&A as the Portuguese route to Brazil

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Sentiment analysis on twitter for the portuguese language

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Portuguese average cost of capital

The oldest Portuguese share index still being calculated is the BVL/PSI-General, one which started the daily series on 5/Jan/1988 with a base value of 1000 points. Everyday a single value is computed based on the closing prices of all the shares included in the sample. Also, all corporate events affecting the price of any share beyond market sentiment are taken into account through proper adjustments, either in the numerator or the denominator of the formula. However, for dates before January 1988, there is nothing comparable to this index since the two different series known either never disclosed the methodology adopted to calculate the index or followed solutions not compatible with the above index. The present paper explains the solutions adopted to replicate as closely as possible the methodology of the BVL-General index to the main market of the Lisbon Exchange for the period 1978 – 1987. This is the first estimate of the historical Equity Risk Premium in Portugal above short-term risk-free rate from the re-opening of the market following the Carnation Revolution (and the accompanying nationalizations), to the present. In showing a value of the same order of magnitude found in other countries, the paper invites further studies on the effects of political decisions such as privatizations and joining the European Union.

Leadership in Angola and Mozambique: How Portuguese leaders overcome the human resources challenge and contribute to organizational success

This Work Project presents human resources as one of the major challenges that Portuguese leaders meet in Angola and Mozambique. The main goal is to understand the role of leaders in translating this challenge into benefits for their own business and the African society. To conduct this study 13 leaders who work in Portugal and Africa were interviewed. Then, a framework was constructed based on the two ways these leaders recognize the importance of their employees for sustainable growth – financial incentives or/and personal development. The main conclusion here is that individually, incentives and personal development are not effective methods. Because of this, an employee empowerment process is proposed that encloses both, along with the leaders’ personal qualities needed to implement that “ideal” process.

The use of technology in Portuguese hospitals- The case of MRI

We study the determinants of MRI use across Portuguese NHS hospitals for patients belonging to specific DRGs. Using data on individual hospital admissions, we estimate a probit model including individual-, hospital-, time- and region-specific variables in order to explain the probability of a patient being sent for MRI. Results convey a tightening effect on the hospital’s budget constraint in the end of each year. Hospitals seem to account for regional characteristics when defining adoption patterns. Individual-specific variables are good predictors of MRI use. Measures taken by the Government only impact the short run. Finally, the gains from an MRI scan, as far as the probability of death is concerned, occur mainly for less severe patients.