Inactive Matrix Gla-Protein is associated with arterial stiffness in an adult population-based study

Increased pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a marker of aortic stiffness and an independent predictor of mortality. Matrix Gla-protein (MGP) is a vascular calcification inhibitor that needs vitamin K to be activated. Inactive MGP, known as desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP (dp-ucMGP), can be measured in plasma and has been associated with various cardiovascular markers, cardiovascular outcomes, and mortality. In this study, we hypothesized that high levels of dp-ucMGP are associated with increased PWV. We recruited participants via a multicenter family-based cross-sectional study in Switzerland. Dp-ucMGP was quantified in plasma by sandwich ELISA. Aortic PWV was determined by applanation tonometry using carotid and femoral pulse waveforms. Multiple regression analysis was performed to estimate associations between PWV and dp-ucMGP adjusting for age, renal function, and other cardiovascular risk factors. We included 1001 participants in our analyses (475 men and 526 women). Mean values were 7.87±2.10 m/s for PWV and 0.43±0.20 nmol/L for dp-ucMGP. PWV was positively associated with dp-ucMGP both before and after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, height, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), heart rate, renal function, low- and high-density lipoprotein, glucose, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, BP and cholesterol lowering drugs, and history of cardiovascular disease (P≤0.01). In conclusion, high levels of dp-ucMGP are independently and positively associated with arterial stiffness after adjustment for common cardiovascular risk factors, renal function, and age. Experimental studies are needed to determine whether vitamin K supplementation slows arterial stiffening by increasing MGP carboxylation.

CoDiab-VD: protocol of a prospective population-based cohort study on diabetes care in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes represents an increasing health burden worldwide. In 2010, the Public Health Department of the canton of Vaud (Switzerland) launched a regional diabetes programme entitled "Programme cantonal Diabète" (PcD), with the objectives to both decrease the incidence of diabetes and improve care for patients with diabetes. The cohort entitled CoDiab-VD emerged from that programme. It specifically aimed at following quality of diabetes care over time, at evaluating the coverage of the PcD within this canton and at assessing the impact of the PcD on care of patients with diabetes. METHODS/DESIGN: The cohort CoDiab-VD is a prospective population-based cohort study. Patients with diabetes were recruited in two waves (autumn 2011--summer 2012) through community pharmacies. Eligible participants were non-institutionalised adult patients (≥ 18 years) with diabetes diagnosed for at least one year, residing in the canton of Vaud and coming to a participating pharmacy with a diabetes-related prescription. Women with gestational diabetes, people with obvious cognitive impairment or insufficient command of French were not eligible. Self-reported data collected, included the following primary outcomes: processes-of-care indicators (annual checks) and outcomes of care such as HbA1C, (health-related) quality of life measures (Short Form-12 Health Survey--SF-12, Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life 19--ADDQoL) and Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC). Data on diabetes, health status, healthcare utilisation, health behaviour, self-management activities and support, knowledge of, or participation to, campaigns/activities proposed by the PcD, and socio-demographics were also obtained. For consenting participants, physicians provided few additional pieces of information about processes and laboratory results. Participants will be followed once a year, via a mailed self-report questionnaire. The core of the follow-up questionnaires will be similar to the baseline one, with the addition of thematic modules adapting to the development of the PcD. Physicians will be contacted every 2 years. DISCUSSION: CoDiab-VD will allow obtaining a broad picture of the care of patients with diabetes, as well as their needs regarding their chronic condition. The data will be used to evaluate the PcD and help prioritise targeted actions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT01902043, July 9, 2013.

Associations between fruit and vegetable consumption and psychological distress: results from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies observed associations of various aspects of diet with mental health, but little is known about the relationship between following the 5-a-day recommendation for fruit and vegetables consumption and mental health. Thus, we examined the associations of the Swiss daily recommended fruit and vegetable intake with psychological distress. METHODS: Data from 20,220 individuals aged 15+ years from the 2012 Swiss Health Survey were analyzed. The recommended portions of fruit and vegetables per day were defined as 5-a-day (at least 2 portions of fruit and 3 of vegetables). The outcome was perceived psychological distress over the previous 4 weeks (measured by the 5-item mental health index [MHI-5]). High distress (MHI-5 score ≤ 52), moderate distress (MHI-5 > 52 and ≤ 72) and low distress (MHI-5 > 72 and ≤ 100) were differentiated and multinomial logistic regression analyses adjusted for known confounding factors were performed. RESULTS: The 5-a-day recommendation was met by 11.6 % of the participants with low distress, 9.3 % of those with moderate distress, and 6.2 % of those with high distress. Consumers fulfilling the 5-a-day recommendation had lower odds of being highly or moderately distressed than individuals consuming less fruit and vegetables (moderate vs. low distress: OR = 0.82, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.97; high vs. low distress: OR = 0.55, 95 % CI 0.41-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: Daily intake of 5 servings of fruit and vegetable was associated with lower psychological distress. Longitudinal studies are needed to further determine the causal nature of this relationship.

A Population-Based Model to Consider the Effect of Seasonal Variation on Serum 25(OH)D and Vitamin D Status.

Background. We elaborated a model that predicts the centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution taking into account seasonal variation. Methods. Data from two Swiss population-based studies were used to generate (CoLaus) and validate (Bus Santé) the model. Serum 25(OH)D was measured by ultra high pressure LC-MS/MS and immunoassay. Linear regression models on square-root transformed 25(OH)D values were used to predict centiles of the 25(OH)D distribution. Distribution functions of the observations from the replication set predicted with the model were inspected to assess replication. Results. Overall, 4,912 and 2,537 Caucasians were included in original and replication sets, respectively. Mean (SD) 25(OH)D, age, BMI, and % of men were 47.5 (22.1) nmol/L, 49.8 (8.5) years, 25.6 (4.1) kg/m(2), and 49.3% in the original study. The best model included gender, BMI, and sin-cos functions of measurement day. Sex- and BMI-specific 25(OH)D centile curves as a function of measurement date were generated. The model estimates any centile of the 25(OH)D distribution for given values of sex, BMI, and date and the quantile corresponding to a 25(OH)D measurement. Conclusions. We generated and validated centile curves of 25(OH)D in the general adult Caucasian population. These curves can help rank vitamin D centile independently of when 25(OH)D is measured.

Heritability of ambulatory and office blood pressure in the Swiss population.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) is known to aggregate in families. Yet, heritability estimates are population-specific and no Swiss data have been published so far. We estimated the heritability of ambulatory and office BP in a Swiss population-based sample. METHODS: The Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension is a population-based family study focusing on BP genetics. Office and ambulatory BP were measured in 1009 individuals from 271 nuclear families. Heritability was estimated for SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure using a maximum likelihood method implanted in the Statistical Analysis in Genetic Epidemiology software. RESULTS: The 518 women and 491 men included in this analysis had a mean (±SD) age of 48.3 (±17.4) and 47.3 (±17.7) years, and a mean BMI of 23.8 (±4.2) and 25.9 (±4.1) kg/m, respectively. Narrow-sense heritability estimates (±standard error) for ambulatory SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.37 ± 0.07, 0.26 ± 0.07, and 0.29 ± 0.07 for 24-h BP; 0.39 ± 0.07, 0.28 ± 0.07, and 0.27 ± 0.07 for day BP; and 0.25 ± 0.07, 0.20 ± 0.07, and 0.30 ± 0.07 for night BP, respectively (all P < 0.001). Heritability estimates for office SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.21 ± 0.08, 0.25 ± 0.08, and 0.18 ± 0.07 (all P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We found significant heritability estimates for both ambulatory and office BP in this Swiss population-based study. Our findings justify the ongoing search for the genetic determinants of BP.

Bad sleep? Don't blame the moon! A population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to evaluate if there is a significant effect of lunar phases on subjective and objective sleep variables in the general population. METHODS: A total of 2125 individuals (51.2% women, age 58.8 ± 11.2 years) participating in a population-based cohort study underwent a complete polysomnography (PSG) at home. Subjective sleep quality was evaluated by a self-rating scale. Sleep electroencephalography (EEG) spectral analysis was performed in 759 participants without significant sleep disorders. Salivary cortisol levels were assessed at awakening, 30 min after awakening, at 11 am, and at 8 pm. Lunar phases were grouped into full moon (FM), waxing/waning moon (WM), and new moon (NM). RESULTS: Overall, there was no significant difference between lunar phases with regard to subjective sleep quality. We found only a nonsignificant (p = 0.08) trend toward a better sleep quality during the NM phase. Objective sleep duration was not different between phases (FM: 398 ± 3 min, WM: 402 ± 3 min, NM: 403 ± 3 min; p = 0.31). No difference was found with regard to other PSG-derived parameters, EEG spectral analysis, or in diurnal cortisol levels. When considering only subjects with apnea/hypopnea index of <15/h and periodic leg movements index of <15/h, we found a trend toward shorter total sleep time during FM (FM: 402 ± 4, WM: 407 ± 4, NM: 415 ± 4 min; p = 0.06) and shorter-stage N2 duration (FM: 178 ± 3, WM: 182 ± 3, NM: 188 ± 3 min; p = 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our large population-based study provides no evidence of a significant effect of lunar phases on human sleep.

Scoring criteria for portable monitor recordings: a comparison of four hypopnoea definitions in a population-based cohort.

RATIONALE: Limited-channel portable monitors (PMs) are increasingly used as an alternative to polysomnography (PSG) for the diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). However, recommendations for the scoring of PM recordings are still lacking. Pulse-wave amplitude (PWA) drops, considered as surrogates for EEG arousals, may increase the detection sensitivity for respiratory events in PM recordings. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the performance of four different hypopnoea scoring criteria, using 3% or 4% oxygen desaturation levels, including or not PWA drops as surrogates for EEG arousals, and to determine the impact of measured versus reported sleep time on OSA diagnosis. METHODS: Subjects drawn from a population-based cohort underwent a complete home PSG. The PSG recordings were scored using the 2012 American Academy of Sleep Medicine criteria to determine the apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI). Recordings were then rescored using only parameters available on type 3 PM devices according to different hypopnoea criteria and patients-reported sleep duration to determine the 'portable monitor AHIs' (PM-AHIs). MAIN RESULTS: 312 subjects were included. Overall, PM-AHIs showed a good concordance with the PSG-based AHI although it tended to slightly underestimate it. The PM-AHI using 3% desaturation without PWA drops showed the best diagnostic accuracy for AHI thresholds of ≥5/h and ≥15/h (correctly classifying 94.55% and 93.27% of subjects, respectively, vs 80.13% and 87.50% with PWA drops). There was a significant but modest correlation between PWA drops and EEG arousals (r=0.20, p=0.0004). CONCLUSION: Interpretation of PM recordings using hypopnoea criteria which include 3% desaturation without PWA drops as EEG arousal surrogate showed the best diagnosis accuracy compared with full PSG.

Escalating incidence of eosinophilic esophagitis in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, 1993-2013: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic, inflammatory disease of the esophagus with a rapidly increasing incidence. However, population-based epidemiologic data on EoE are rare and limited to regions with less than 200 000 inhabitants. We evaluated the incidence and prevalence of EoE over time in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Canton of Vaud lies in the French-speaking, Western part of Switzerland. As of December 2013, it had a population of 743 317 inhabitants. We contacted all pathology institutes (n = 6) in this canton to identify patients that have been diagnosed with esophageal eosinophilia between 1993 and 2013. We then performed a chart review in all adult and pediatric gastroenterology practices to identify patients with EoE. RESULTS: Of 263 patients with esophageal eosinophilia, a total of 179 fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for EoE. Median diagnostic delay was 4 (IQR 1-9) years. No patient was diagnosed with EoE prior to 2003. Incidence of EoE increased from 0.16/100 000 inhabitants in 2004 to 6.3/100 000 inhabitants in 2013 (P < 0.001). The cumulative EoE prevalence in 2013 was 24.1/100 000. The incidence in males was 2.8 times higher (95% CI 2.01-3.88, P < 0.001) when compared to that in females. The annual EoE incidence was 10.6 times higher (95%-CI 7.61-14.87, P < 0.001) in the period from 2010 to 2013 when compared to that in the period from 1993 to 2009. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and cumulative prevalence of EoE in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, has rapidly increased in the past 10 years.

Association between parental history and genetic risk scores for coronary heart disease prediction: The population-based CoLaus study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Parental history (PH) and genetic risk scores (GRSs) are separately associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), but evidence regarding their combined effects is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the joint associations and predictive ability of PH and GRSs for incident CHD. METHODS: Data for 4283 Caucasians were obtained from the population-based CoLaus Study, over median follow-up time of 5.6 years. CHD was defined as incident myocardial infarction, angina, percutaneous coronary revascularization or bypass grafting. Single nucleotide polymorphisms for CHD identified by genome-wide association studies were used to construct unweighted and weighted versions of three GRSs, comprising of 38, 53 and 153 SNPs respectively. RESULTS: PH was associated with higher values of all weighted GRSs. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, PH was significantly associated with CHD [HR 2.61, 95% CI (1.47-4.66)] and further adjustment for GRSs did not change this estimate. Similarly, one standard deviation change of the weighted 153-SNPs GRS was significantly associated with CHD [HR 1.50, 95% CI (1.26-1.80)] and remained so, after further adjustment for PH. The weighted, 153-SNPs GRS, but not PH, modestly improved discrimination [(C-index improvement, 0.016), p = 0.048] and reclassification [(NRI improvement, 8.6%), p = 0.027] beyond cardiovascular risk factors. After including both the GRS and PH, model performance improved further [(C-index improvement, 0.022), p = 0.006]. CONCLUSION: After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, PH and a weighted, polygenic GRS were jointly associated with CHD and provided additive information for coronary events prediction.

Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. SUMMARY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In the absence of mandatory fortification, the prevalence of NTD has not decreased in Europe despite longstanding recommendations aimed at promoting peri-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct of this study. No additional data available.

Inactive matrix gla-protein is associated with arterial atiffness in an adult population-based study

La vitesse de l'onde de pouls (VOP) est la méthode pour mesurer la rigidité artérielle la plus répandue et la plus validée. C'est aussi un prédicteur indépendant de la mortalité. La Matrix Gla- protein (MGP) est une protein qui inhibe les calcifications vasculaires. MGP nécessite une enzyme dérivée de la vitamine K pour être activée, à l'instar de certains facteurs de coagulation. La forme inactive de MGP, connue sous le terme de « desphospho-uncarboxylated MGP » (dp-ucMGP), peut-être mesurée dans le plasma. Plus les apports de vitamine K sont importants plus les taux de dp-ucMGP diminue. Les taux de dp-ucMGP ont déjà été étudiés et associés à différents marqueurs cardiovasculaires (CV), aux événements CV et à la mortalité. Dans notre travail de recherche nous avons émis l'hypothèse que des taux élevés de dp-ucMGP seraient associés à une VOP élevée. Nous avons recruté les participants à travers une étude multicentrique suisse (SKIPOGH). Le processus de recrutement ciblait des familles dans lesquelles plusieurs membres étaient d'accord de participer. Nous avons mesuré la dp-ucMGP plasmatique grâce à la méthode immuno-enzymatique « ELISA ». Concernant la VOP, nous avons mesuré les ondes de pression au niveau carotidien et fémorale grâce à un tonomètre et calculer la vitesse de leurs propagations. Par la suite nous avons utilisé un modèle de régression linéaire multiple afin de déterminer le lien entre la VOP et dp- ucMGP. Le modèle était ajusté pour l'âge, la fonction rénale et les risques CV classiques. Nous avons inclut 1001 participants dans les analyses (475 hommes et 526 femmes). La valeur moyenne de la VOP était de 7.87 ± 2.10 (m/s) et celle de dp-ucMGP de 0.43 ± 0.20 (nmol/L). La VOP était positivement et significativement associée à dp-ucMGP avant comme après ajustement pour le sexe, l'âge, l'indice de masse corporel, la taille, la pression artérielle systolique et diastolique, la fréquence cardiaque, la fonction rénale, les taux de cholestérol (LDL, HDL), la glycémie, la consommation de tabac, la présence d'un diabète, l'utilisation de médicaments antihypertenseurs ou hypolipémiants et la présence d'antécédents CV (P<0.01). En conclusion, des taux élevés de dp-ucMGP sont positivement et indépendamment associés à la rigidité artérielle après ajustement pour les facteurs de risques CV traditionnels, la fonction rénale et l'âge. Des études expérimentales sont nécessaires afin de déterminer si une supplémentation en vitamine K permet de ralentir l'avancement de la rigidité artérielle grâce à son activation de la MGP.

Development of a population-based cost-effectiveness model of chronic graft versus host disease in Spain

Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. METHODS: The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for ( 517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was 29,646 per life-year gained and 24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. CONCLUSION: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt.

Sociodemographic, behavioral and genetic determinants of allostatic load in a Swiss population-based study.

Allostatic load (AL) is a marker of physiological dysregulation which reflects exposure to chronic stress. High AL has been related to poorer health outcomes including mortality. We examine here the association of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with AL. Additionally, we investigate the extent to which AL is genetically determined. We included 803 participants (52% women, mean age 48±16years) from a population and family-based Swiss study. We computed an AL index aggregating 14 markers from cardiovascular, metabolic, lipidic, oxidative, hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal and inflammatory homeostatic axes. Education and occupational position were used as indicators of socioeconomic status. Marital status, stress, alcohol intake, smoking, dietary patterns and physical activity were considered as lifestyle factors. Heritability of AL was estimated by maximum likelihood. Women with a low occupational position had higher AL (low vs. high OR=3.99, 95%CI [1.22;13.05]), while the opposite was observed for men (middle vs. high OR=0.48, 95%CI [0.23;0.99]). Education tended to be inversely associated with AL in both sexes(low vs. high OR=3.54, 95%CI [1.69;7.4]/OR=1.59, 95%CI [0.88;2.90] in women/men). Heavy drinking men as well as women abstaining from alcohol had higher AL than moderate drinkers. Physical activity was protective against AL while high salt intake was related to increased AL risk. The heritability of AL was estimated to be 29.5% ±7.9%. Our results suggest that generalized physiological dysregulation, as measured by AL, is determined by both environmental and genetic factors. The genetic contribution to AL remains modest when compared to the environmental component, which explains approximately 70% of the phenotypic variance.

Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.