Measuring population mobility speed from space

Ad-hoc population dynamics in Krugman’s type core and periphery models adjust population share of a region, based on its real wage rate deviation from national average, at pre-specified speed of population mobility. Whereas speed of population mobility is expected to be different across countries, for geographical, cultural, technological, etc. reasons, one common speed is often applied in theoretical and simulation analysis, due to spatially patchy, and temporally infrequent, availability of sub-national regional data. This article demonstrates how, increasingly available, high definition spatio-temporal remote-sensing data, and their by-products, can be used to measure speed of population mobility in national and sub-national level.

Partition, independence, and population geography in Bengal

This study quantitatively explores the changing population geography in Bengal, with a particular focus on Partition in India in 1947 and Independence of Bangladesh in 1971. Based on decadal census data from 1901 to 2001 at the district level, this paper explores how trends in regional population growth evolved with such historical events. Following Redding and Sturm (2008), Differences-in-Differences estimation is also employed. Estimation results show that there were different shocks on both sides and from both events. In West Bengal, the change in the regional population trends occurred in 1947 and remained similar thereafter. On the other hand, in East Bengal, the population growth became statistically significant after 1971. Further robustness checks show that the impacts were not uniform with respect to the distance from the border. Overall analyses show that the emergence of the international border in Bengal had asymmetric impacts on both sides.

Variation in per capita interaction strength: Thresholds due to nonlinear dynamics and nonequilibrium conditions

I measured the strength of interaction between a marine herbivore and its growing resource over a realistic range of absolute and relative abundances. The herbivores (hermit crabs: Pagurus spp.) have slow and/or weak functional and numerical responses to epiphytic diatoms (Isthmia nervosa), which show logistic growth in the absence of consumers. By isolating this interaction in containers in the field, I mimicked many of the physical and biological variables characteristic of the intertidal while controlling the densities of focal species. The per capita effects of consumers on the population dynamics of their resource (i.e., interaction strength) were defined by using the relationship between hermit crab density and proportional change in the resource. When this relationship is fit by a Weibull function, a single parameter distinguishes constant interaction strength from one that varies as a function of density. Constant interaction strength causes the proportion of diatoms to fall linearly or proportionally as hermit crab density increases whereas per capita effects that increase with density cause an accelerating decline. Although many mathematical models of species interactions assume linear dynamics and invariant parameters, at least near equilibrium, the per capita effects of hermit crabs on diatoms varied substantially, apparently crossing a threshold from weak to strong when consumption exceeded resource production. This threshold separates a domain of coexistence from one of local extinction of the resource. Such thresholds may help explain trophic cascades, resource compensation, and context-dependent interaction strengths, while indicating a way to predict trophic effects, despite nonlinearities, as a function of vital rates.

Using rare mutations to estimate population divergence times: A maximum likelihood approach

In this paper we propose a method to estimate by maximum likelihood the divergence time between two populations, specifically designed for the analysis of nonrecurrent rare mutations. Given the rapidly growing amount of data, rare disease mutations affecting humans seem the most suitable candidates for this method. The estimator RD, and its conditional version RDc, were derived, assuming that the population dynamics of rare alleles can be described by using a birth–death process approximation and that each mutation arose before the split of a common ancestral population into the two diverging populations. The RD estimator seems more suitable for large sample sizes and few alleles, whose age can be approximated, whereas the RDc estimator appears preferable when this is not the case. When applied to three cystic fibrosis mutations, the estimator RD could not exclude a very recent time of divergence among three Mediterranean populations. On the other hand, the divergence time between these populations and the Danish population was estimated to be, on the average, 4,500 or 15,000 years, assuming or not a selective advantage for cystic fibrosis carriers, respectively. Confidence intervals are large, however, and can probably be reduced only by analyzing more alleles or loci.

The development of population projections for the Turks and Caicos Islands 2012-2027

It is not possible to trace the early demographic development of the Turks and Caicos Islands due to lack of data, but what is evident from the limited historical data is that population developments beginning in 1921 and up to 1970 followed the same path as other Caribbean Islands. The Turks and Caicos Islands have experienced unprecedented population growth over the last twenty years due largely to the immigration of people from neighbouring countries seeking employment created by the development of tourism. Such rapid population changes for the small island group present many social, economic, environmental and political challenges. Population projections are essential so that policymakers and decision makers can make informed judgements about future strategies, policies and programmes.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

An investigation into effects of long-distance seed dispersal on organelle population genetic structure and colonization rate: a model analysis

A simulation-based modelling approach is used to examine the effects of stratified seed dispersal (representing the distribution of the majority of dispersal around the maternal parent and also rare long-distance dispersal) on the genetic structure of maternally inherited genomes and the colonization rate of expanding plant populations. The model is parameterized to approximate postglacial oak colonization in the UK, but is relevant to plant populations that exhibit stratified seed dispersal. The modelling approach considers the colonization of individual plants over a large area (three 500 km x 10 km rolled transects are used to approximate a 500 km x 300 km area). Our approach shows how the interaction of plant population dynamics with stratified dispersal can result in a spatially patchy haplotype structure. We show that while both colonization speeds and the resulting genetic structure are influenced by the characteristics of the dispersal kernel, they are robust to changes in the periodicity of long-distance events, provided the average number of long-distance dispersal events remains constant. We also consider the effects of additional physical and environmental mechanisms on plant colonization. Results show significant changes in genetic structure when the initial colonization of different haplotypes is staggered over time and when a barrier to colonization is introduced. Environmental influences on survivorship and fecundity affect both the genetic structure and the speed of colonization. The importance of these mechanisms in relation to the postglacial spread and genetic structure of oak in the UK is discussed.

Transmission dynamics of the Echinococcus granulosus sheep-dog strain (G1 genotype) in camels in Tunisia

Cystic echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus grantilosus, is highly endemic in North Africa and the Middle East. This paper examines the abundance and prevalence of infection of E. granulosus in camels in Tunisia. No cysts were found in 103 camels from Kebili, whilst 19 of 188 camels from Benguerden (10.1%) were infected. Of the cysts found 95% were considered fertile with the presence of protoscolices and 80% of protoscolices were considered viable by their ability to exclude aqueous eosin. Molecular techniques were used on cyst material from camels and this demonstrated that the study animals were infected with the G1 sheep strain of E. granulosus. Observed data were fitted to a mathematical model by maximum likelihood techniques to define the parameters and their confidence limits and the negative binomial distribution was used to define the error variance in the observed data. The infection pressure to camels was somewhat lower in comparison to sheep reported in an earlier study. However, because camels are much longer-lived animals, the results of the model fit suggested that older camels have a relatively high prevalence rate, reaching a most likely value of 32% at age 15 years. This could represent an important source of transmission to dogs and hence indirectly to man of this zonotic strain. In common with similar studies on other species, there was no evidence of parasite-induced immunity in camels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing moth migration and population structuring in Helicoverpa annigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) at the regional scale: Example from the Darling Downs, Australia

Analysis of gene flow and migration of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) in a major cropping region of Australia identified substantial genetic structuring, migration events, and significant population genotype changes over the 38-mo sample period from November 1999 to January 2003. Five highly variable microsatellite markers were used to analyze 916 individuals from 77 collections across 10 localities in the Darling Downs. The molecular data indicate that in some years (e.g., April 2002-March 2003), low levels of H. armigera migration and high differentiation between populations occurred, whereas in other years (e.g., April 2001-March 2002), there were higher levels of adult moth movement resulting in little local structuring of populations. Analysis of populations in other Australian cropping regions provided insight into the quantity and direction of immigration of H. armigera adults into the Darling Downs growing region of Australia. These data provide evidence adult moth movement differs from season to season, highlighting the importance of studies in groups such as the Lepidoptera extending over consecutive years, because short-term sampling may be misleading when population dynamics and migration change so significantly. This research demonstrates the importance of maintaining a coordinated insecticide resistance management strategy, because in some years H. armigera populations may be independent within a region and thus significantly influenced by local management practices; however, periods with high migration will occur and resistance may rapidly spread.

Significant patterns of population genetic structure and limited gene flow in a threatened macropodid marsupial despite continuous habitat in southeast Queensland, Australia

Many endangered species worldwide are found in remnant populations, often within fragmented landscapes. However, when possible, an understanding of the natural extent of population structure and dispersal behaviour of threatened species would assist in their conservation and management. The brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata), a once abundant and widespread rock-wallaby species across southeastern Australia, has become nearly extinct across much of the southern part of its range. However, the northern part of the species' range still sustains many small colonies closely distributed across suitable habitat, providing a rare opportunity to investigate the natural population dynamics of a listed threatened species. We used 12 microsatellite markers to investigate genetic diversity, population structure and gene flow among brush-tailed rock-wallaby colonies within and among two valley regions with continuous habitat in southeast Queensland. We documented high and signifcant levels of population genetic structure between rock-wallaby colonies embedded in continuous escarpment habitat and forest. We found a strong and significant pattern of isolation-by-distance among colonies indicating restricted gene flow over a small geographic scale (< 10 km) and conclude that gene flow is more likely limited by intrinsic factors rather than environmental factors. In addition, we provide evidence that genetic diversity was significantly lower in colonies located in a more isolated valley region compared to colonies located in a valley region surrounded by continuous habitat. These findings shed light on the processes that have resulted in the endangered status of rock-wallaby species in Australia and they have strong implications for the conservation and management of both the remaining 'connected' brush-tailed rock-wallaby colonies in the northern parts of the species' range and the remnant endangered populations in the south.

Optimizing Presence–Absence Surveys For Detecting Population Trends

Presence-absence surveys are a commonly used method for monitoring broad-scale changes in wildlife distributions. However, the lack of power of these surveys for detecting population trends is problematic for their application in wildlife management. Options for improving power include increasing the sampling effort or arbitrarily relaxing the type I error rate. We present an alternative, whereby targeted sampling of particular habitats in the landscape using information from a habitat model increases power. The advantage of this approach is that it does not require a trade-off with either cost or the Pr(type I error) to achieve greater power. We use a demographic model of koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population dynamics and simulations of the monitoring process to estimate the power to detect a trend in occupancy for a range of strategies, thereby demonstrating that targeting particular habitat qualities can improve power substantially. If the objective is to detect a decline in occupancy, the optimal strategy is to sample high-quality habitats. Alternatively, if the objective is to detect an increase in occupancy, the optimal strategy is to sample intermediate-quality habitats. The strategies with the highest power remained the same under a range of parameter assumptions, although observation error had a strong influence on the optimal strategy. Our approach specifically applies to monitoring for detecting long-term trends in occupancy or abundance. This is a common and important monitoring objective for wildlife managers, and we provide guidelines for more effectively achieving it.

The structure and dynamics of saxicolous lichen communities

The saxicolous lichen vegetation on Ordovician slate rock at the mouth of the River Dovey, South Merionethshire, Wales was described in relation to several environmental variables which include aspect, slope angle, light intensity, rock porosity, rock microtopography and rock stability. Each of the measured environmental variables was shown to influence the lichen vegetation. A number of groups of species which were characteristic of certain environments were described. The data from the saxicolous lichen communities were analysed using multivariate analysis. Qualitative and quantitative data were ordinated, the qualitative data being easier to interpret ecologically, and site number (which reflects distance from the sea and altitude), rock porosity and light intensity were shown to be important environmental variables. A classification of the data was also carried out. The results of the ordination and classification were combined together and a model constructed which describes saxicolous lichen vegetation. A method which uses the model as an aid to the design and interpretation of field experiments is described. The model is applied to an experiment which investigates the effect on growth of transplanting four saxicolous lichens to different aspects. Growth was inhibited in Physcia orbicularis and Parmelia conspersa on rock surfaces of northwest aspect compared with growth on rock surfaces of southeast aspect. Growth was inhibited in Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa on rock surfaces of southeast aspect compared with rock surfaces of northwesr aspect. The growth of Parmelia saxatilis was similar at both southeast and northwesr aspects. Growth inhibition or stimulation in thalli of Physcia orbicularis, Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa after transplantation was consistent with the predictions of the model while the results for Parmelia saxatilis were not as expected. There was evidence that the frequency of Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the growth of the thalli. There was also evidence that the frequency of Physcia orbicularis at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the establishment phase of the thalli and for the competitive exclusion of Parmelia saxatilis thalli from southeast facing rock surfaces. The distribution of lichens in relation to height on nine rock surfaces was investigated. It was suggested that the distribution of the lichens was influenced by microclimatic factors which are related to height on the rock, environmental variables which are associated with the rock substratum (e.g. rock porosity and rock microtopography) and by historical factors. The pattern of one crustose and one foliose lichen on four rock surfaces of different aspect and slope was investigated. On the vertically inclined surface the density of small thalli of Buellia aethalea and Parmelia glabratula ssp fuliginosa was correlated with the microtopography of the surface in transects horizontally across the rock surface but not in transects vertically down the rock surface. there were consitent differences in the scale and intensity of pattern horizontally and vertically and also a decrease in the intensity of pattern vertically as the slope of the rock surface decreased. These results were consistent with the suggestion of a gradient of microclimatic factors up the rock. The differences in the scale and intensity of pattern in different size classes in the population were consistent with the changes in pattern with time which have been shown to occur during succession in sand dune and salt marsh vegetation. The relationship between thallus size and height on a rock surface and between the radial growth rate and location of a thallus on a rock surface were investigated. Thalli of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa were larger at the top of the rock surface than at the bottom and the data were consistent with the suggestion that the colonisation of the rock surface began at the top and, in time, spread downwards. The radial growth rate of the thalli could not be related to variation in slope, porosity, microtopography or directly to height on the rock but could be related to the horizontal location of the thalli on the rock. These results were consistent with the suggestion that here is a gradient of microclimatic factors across the rock surface which is also modified by height on the rock surface. The succession of lichen communities was described by relating the vegetation to rock porosity, rock microtopography, species diversity and rock stability. An initial stage dominated by crustose lichens leads to communities dominated by crustose, foliose and fruticose species. In the late stages of the succession on some rock surfaces crustose species again become dominant. The occurrence of the climax state and cyclic vegetation change in lichen communities are discussed. A mthod of estimating the age structure of a lichen population by relating thallus size to growth rate is described. The sources of error in the method are discussed in some detail and several refinements suggested to increase the accuracy of the method. The population dynamics of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa was investigated by applying life tables to the age structures of eight different populations. The data were consistent with a period of relatively constant recruitment of thalli into the populations. Mortality in lichen populations was divided into deaths which occur after fragmentation of the thallus and deaths which occur after catastrophic environmental events. THe data suggest that the rate of fragmenting death is dependent on the age of the thallus while the rate of catastrophic death is dependent on the number of thalli established in an age class. A comparison of the numbers of thalli in each age class in the eight populations suggested that population density is controlled firstly, by climate and secondly, by variables related to the local rock surface environment. The rate of fragmenting death is related to the diversity of the community and the influence of diversity together with environmental variables in fluctuating or cyclic changes in population number.