959 resultados para Population Trends


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CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the population structure and the genetic and phenotypic progress of Nelore cattle in Northern Brazil. Pedigree information concerning animals born between 1942 and 2006 were analyzed. Population structure was performed using the Endog program. Out of the 140,628 animals studied, 67.7, 14.52 and 3.18% had complete pedigree record of the first, second and third parental generation, respectively. Inbreeding and average relatedness coefficients were low: 0.2 and 0.13%, respectively. However, these parameters may have been underestimated, since information on pedigree was incomplete. The effective number of founders was 370 and the genetic contribution of 10, 50 and 448 most influent ancestors explained 13.2, 28 and 50% of the genetic variability in the population, respectively. The genetic variability for growth traits and population structure demonstrates high probability of increasing productivity through selective breeding. Moreover, management strategies to reduce the currently observed age at first calving and generation intervals are important for Nelore cattle genetic improvement.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess nutrition trends of the Geneva population for the period 1999-2009. DESIGN: Bus Santé Geneva study, which conducts annual health surveys in random samples of the Geneva population. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated FFQ and trends were assessed by linear regression. SETTING: Population-based survey. SUBJECTS: Data from 9283 participants (50% women, mean age 51·5 (sd 10·8) years) were analysed. RESULTS: In both genders total energy intake decreased from 1999 to 2009, by 2·9% in men and by 6·3% in women (both trends P < 0·005). Vegetable protein and total carbohydrate intakes, expressed as a percentage of total energy intake, increased in women. MUFA intake increased while SFA, PUFA and alcohol intakes decreased in both genders. Intakes of Ca, Fe and carotene decreased in both genders. No changes in fibre, vitamin D and vitamin A intakes were found. Similar findings were obtained after excluding participants with extreme dietary intakes, except that the decreases in SFA, vegetable protein and carbohydrate were no longer significant in women. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1999 and 2009, a small decrease in total energy intake was noted in the Geneva population. Although the decrease in alcohol and SFA intakes is of interest, the decrease in Ca and Fe intakes may have adverse health effects in the future.

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We assessed the 15-year trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalence of overweight in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African Region) and the relationship with socio-economic status (SES). Three population-based examination surveys were conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Occupation was categorized as 'labourer', 'intermediate' or 'professional'. Education was also assessed in 1994 and 2004. Between 1989 and 2004, mean BMI increased markedly in all sex and age categories (overall: 0.16 kg m(-2) per calendar year, which corresponds to 0.46 kg per calendar year). The prevalence of overweight (including obesity, BMI >or= 25 kg m(-2)) increased from 29% to 52% in men and from 50% to 67% in women. The prevalence of obesity (BMI >or= 30 kg m(-2)) increased from 4% to 15% in men and from 23% to 34% in women. Overweight was associated inversely with occupation in women and directly in men in all surveys. In multivariate analysis, overweight was associated similarly (direction and magnitude) to occupation and education. In conclusion, the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity over time in all age, sex and SES categories suggests large-scale changes in societal obesogenic factors. The sex-specific association of SES with overweight suggests that prevention measures should be tailored accordingly.

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BACKGROUND: Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach. METHODS: Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25-74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983-92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990-2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10(-6)) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10(-6)) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10(-6)) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.

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(1) Surpoids chez les enfants suisses et associations avec certaines caractéristiques chez les enfants et leurs parents Le but de cette étude était de mesurer la prévalence du surpoids et de l?obésité chez les enfants de sixième année du canton de Vaud (âge moyen de 12 ans) et les facteurs associés au surpoids. Les données ont été récoltées lors d?une étude menée par l?Institut universitaire de médecine sociale et préventive. Tous les enfants scolarisés en 6ème année à l?école publique du canton de Vaud entre septembre 2005 et mai 2006 étaient éligibles à participer à cette étude. Le taux de participation a atteint 76% (soit 5207 enfants de 12,3 ans en moyenne). Le poids et la taille des enfants ont été mesurés à l?école par des assistants de recherche et les enfants ont rempli, en classe, un questionnaire structuré sur leur mode de vie (notamment : temps quotidien passé à regarder la télévision, à jouer à des jeux sur écran; fréquence de la pratique de diverses activités physiques; fréquence de la consommation de fruits ou de légumes). Des informations sur les parents (niveau d?éducation, nationalité, poids et taille) ont été récoltées au moyen d?un questionnaire structuré envoyé par courrier à ceux-ci. Nous avons utilisé les critères de l?International Obesity Task Force, qui définit les valeurs-seuils de l'indice de masse corporelle pour le surpoids et pour l?obésité, par age et par sexe. La prévalence du surpoids (obésité incluse) dans la population était de 15% chez les garçons et de 12% chez les filles, et la prévalence de l?obésité était de 2% dans les deux sexes. Nous avons trouvé que le surpoids était associé de façon indépendante avec le temps passé à regarder la télévision, ainsi qu?avec certaines caractéristiques des parents, comme le surpoids, un bas niveau d?éducation et une nationalité étrangère. En conclusion, un enfant sur sept est en surpoids ou obèse dans le canton de Vaud. Ces chiffres indiquent un important défi de santé publique, même si cette prévalence dans le canton de Vaud est, actuellement, moindre que dans beaucoup d?autres pays d?Europe, et bien moindre qu?en Amérique du Nord. Les associations entre le surpoids infantile et le temps passé à regarder la télévision, ainsi que les associations avec des variables liées au milieu socio-culturel des parents indiquent plusieurs pistes d?intervention pour prévenir le surpoids chez les enfants. Il est probable que les mesures de prévention ne devraient pas se limiter aux approches individuelles, mais devraient aussi inclure des mesures structurelles sur l?environnement social, physique et économique visant à réduire les facteurs obésogènes dans la société.<br/><br/>Objective: The objective was to assess the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children in a canton of Switzerland and the association with various characteristics of the parents and the children. Research Methods and Procedures: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in all children of the sixth school grade of the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Weight and height were measured, and selected lifestyle variables were assessed with a self-administered semiquantitative questionnaire. Information on children?s parents was gathered through a mailed structured questionnaire. Overweight and obesity were based on the International Obesity Task Force criteria. Results: Of 6873 eligible children, 5207 (76%) participated (2621 boys, 2586 girls; mean age, 12.3 years; standard deviation, 0.5 year). The prevalence of overweight (including obesity) was 15.0% (95% confidence interval, 13.7% to 16.4%) in boys and 12.4% (11.1% to 13.7%) in girls, and the prevalence of obesity was 1.8% (1.3% to 2.3%) and 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), respectively. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, overweight was strongly associated with high television viewing time and selected characteristics of the parents (overweight, low educational level, and foreign nationality). Discussion: The prevalence of pediatric overweight and obesity was lower in this region of Switzerland than in several European countries. The correlates of overweight found in this region suggest areas for potential interventions.

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BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and a leading cause of death in younger women. METHODS: We analysed incidence, mortality and relative survival (RS) in women with BC aged 20-49 years at diagnosis, between 1996 and 2009 in Switzerland. Trends are reported as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: Our findings confirm a slight increase in the incidence of BC in younger Swiss women during the period 1996-2009. The increase was largest in women aged 20-39 years (EAPC 1.8%). Mortality decreased in both age groups with similar EAPCs. Survival was lowest among women 20-39 years (10-year RS 73.4%). We observed no notable differences in stage of disease at diagnosis that might explain these differences. CONCLUSIONS: The increased incidence and lower survival in younger women diagnosed with BC in Switzerland indicates possible differences in risk factors, tumour biology and treatment characteristics that require additional examination.

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BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

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PURPOSE: to assess the trends of prevalence of self-reported cardiovascular risk factors (CV RFs: hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes) and their management for the period of 1992 to 2007 in Switzerland. METHODS: four health interview surveys conducted between 1992 and 2007 in representative samples of the Swiss population (63,782 subjects overall). Self-reported CV RFs prevalence, treatment and control levels were computed after weighting. Weights were calculated by raking ratio such that the marginal distribution of the weighted totals conforms to the marginal distribution of the target population. Multivariate analysis was conducted using logistic regression. RESULTS: prevalence of all CV RFs increased between 1992 and 2007. Also, the prevalence of self-reported treatment among subjects with CV RFs increased, as confirmed by multivariate analysis: OR for hypolipidemic treatment relative to 1992: 0.64 [0.52-0.78]; 1.39 [1.18-1.65] and 2.00 [1.69-2.36] for 1997, 2002 and 2007, respectively. Still, in 2007, circa 40% of hypertensive, 60% of hypercholesterolemic and 50% of diabetic subjects weren't treated. On the other hand, there is an increase of the prevalence of controlled RFs as reported by treated subjects. This was confirmed by multivariate analysis 12.1 [12.0 - 12.2]; 4.16 [4.1 - 4.23] and 2.85 [2.79 - 2.90] for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, respectively, in 2007, relative to 1992. CONCLUSION: the prevalence of self-reported hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes increased between 1992 and 2007 in the Swiss population. Despite a good control of treated subjects, still a significant percentage of subjects with CV RFs are not treated.

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Background: The repertoire of statistical methods dealing with the descriptive analysis of the burden of a disease has been expanded and implemented in statistical software packages during the last years. The purpose of this paper is to present a web-based tool, REGSTATTOOLS http://regstattools.net intended to provide analysis for the burden of cancer, or other group of disease registry data. Three software applications are included in REGSTATTOOLS: SART (analysis of disease"s rates and its time trends), RiskDiff (analysis of percent changes in the rates due to demographic factors and risk of developing or dying from a disease) and WAERS (relative survival analysis). Results: We show a real-data application through the assessment of the burden of tobacco-related cancer incidence in two Spanish regions in the period 1995-2004. Making use of SART we show that lung cancer is the most common cancer among those cancers, with rising trends in incidence among women. We compared 2000-2004 data with that of 1995-1999 to assess percent changes in the number of cases as well as relative survival using RiskDiff and WAERS, respectively. We show that the net change increase in lung cancer cases among women was mainly attributable to an increased risk of developing lung cancer, whereas in men it is attributable to the increase in population size. Among men, lung cancer relative survival was higher in 2000-2004 than in 1995-1999, whereas it was similar among women when these time periods were compared. Conclusions: Unlike other similar applications, REGSTATTOOLS does not require local software installation and it is simple to use, fast and easy to interpret. It is a set of web-based statistical tools intended for automated calculation of population indicators that any professional in health or social sciences may require.

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BACKGROUND: Despite universal health care coverage, disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening by income in Switzerland have been reported. However, it is not known if these disparities have changed over time. This study examines the association between socioeconomic position and CRC screening in Switzerland between 2007 and 2012. METHODS: Data from the 2007 (n = 5,946) and 2012 (n = 7,224) population-based Swiss Health Interview Survey data (SHIS) were used to evaluate the association between monthly household income, education, and employment with CRC screening, defined as endoscopy in the past 10 years or fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in the past 2 years. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) adjusting for demographics, health status, and health utilization. RESULTS: CRC screening increased from 18.9% in 2007 to 22.2% in 2012 (padjusted: = 0.036). During the corresponding time period, endoscopy increased (8.2% vs. 15.0%, padjusted:<0.001) and FOBT decreased (13.0% vs. 9.8%, padjusted:0.002). CRC screening prevalence was greater in the highest income (>$6,000) vs. lowest income (≤$2,000) group in 2007 (24.5% vs. 10.5%, PR:1.37, 95%CI: 0.96-1.96) and in 2012 (28.6% vs. 16.0%, PR:1.45, 95%CI: 1.09-1.92); this disparity did not significantly change over time. CONCLUSIONS: While CRC screening prevalence in Switzerland increased from 2007 to 2012, CRC screening coverage remains low and disparities in CRC screening by income persisted over time. These findings highlight the need for increased access to CRC screening as well as enhanced awareness of the benefits of CRC screening in the Swiss population, particularly among low-income residents.

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We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

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We assessed trends in dietary intake according to gender and education using repeated cross-sectional, population-based surveys conducted between 1993 and 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland (17,263 participants, 52.0 ± 10.6 years, 48% male). In 1993-1999, higher educated men had higher monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), carotene and vitamin D intakes than lower educated men, and the differences decreased in 2006-2012. In 1993-1999, higher educated women had higher fiber, iron, carotene, vitamin D and alcohol intakes than lower educated women, and the differences decreased in 2006-2012. Total energy, polyunsaturated fatty acids, retinol and alcohol intakes decreased, while mono/disaccharides, MUFA and carotene intake increased in both genders. Lower educated men had stronger decreases in saturated fatty acid (SFA) and calcium intakes than higher educated men: multivariate-adjusted slope and 95% confidence interval -0.11 (-0.15; -0.06) vs. -0.03 (-0.08; 0.02) g/day/year for SFA and -5.2 (-7.8; -2.7) vs. -1.03 (-3.8; 1.8) mg/day/year for calcium, p for interaction <0.05. Higher educated women had a greater decrease in iron intake than lower educated women: -0.03 (-0.04; -0.02) vs. -0.01 (-0.02; 0.00) mg/day/year, p for interaction = 0.002. We conclude that, in Switzerland, dietary intake evolved similarly between 1993 and 2012 in both educational groups. Educational differences present in 1993 persisted in 2012.

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Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Data from prospective cohorts describing dyslipidaemia prevalence and treatment trends are lacking. Using data from the prospective CoLaus study, we aimed to examine changes in serum lipid levels, dyslipidaemia prevalence and management in a population-based sample of Swiss adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cardiovascular risk was assessed using PROCAM. Dyslipidaemia and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) target levels were defined according to the Swiss Group for Lipids and Atherosclerosis. Complete baseline and follow up (FU) data were available for n = 4863 subjects during mean FU time of 5.6 years. Overall, 32.1% of participants were dyslipidaemic at baseline vs 46.3% at FU (p < 0.001). During this time, lipid lowering medication (LLM) rates among dyslipidaemic subjects increased from 34.0% to 39.2% (p < 0.001). In secondary prevention, LLM rates were 42.7% at baseline and 53.2% at FU (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, LLM use among dyslipidaemic subjects, between baseline and FU, was positively associated with personal history of CVD, older age, hypertension, higher BMI and diabetes, while negatively associated with higher educational level. Among treated subjects, LDL-C target achievement was positively associated with diabetes and negatively associated with personal history of CVD and higher BMI. Among subjects treated at baseline, LLM discontinuation was negatively associated with older age, male sex, smoking, hypertension and parental history of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, the increase over time in dyslipidaemia prevalence was not paralleled by a similar increase in LLM. In a real-life setting, dyslipidaemia management remains far from optimal, both in primary and secondary prevention.