Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.

Predicting feed quality - chemical analysis and in vitro evaluation

As the ideal method of assessing the nutritive value of a feedstuff, namely offering it to the appropriate class of animal and recording the production response obtained, is neither practical nor cost effective a range of feed evaluation techniques have been developed. Each of these balances some degree of compromise with the practical situation against data generation. However, due to the impact of animal-feed interactions over and above that of feed composition, the target animal remains the ultimate arbitrator of nutritional value. In this review current in vitro feed evaluation techniques are examined according to the degree of animal-feed interaction. Chemical analysis provides absolute values and therefore differs from the majority of in vitro methods that simply rank feeds. However, with no host animal involvement, estimates of nutritional value are inferred by statistical association. In addition given the costs involved, the practical value of many analyses conducted should be reviewed. The in sacco technique has made a substantial contribution to both understanding rumen microbial degradative processes and the rapid evaluation of feeds, especially in developing countries. However, the numerous shortfalls of the technique, common to many in vitro methods, the desire to eliminate the use of surgically modified animals for routine feed evaluation, paralleled with improvements in in vitro techniques, will see this technique increasingly replaced. The majority of in vitro systems use substrate disappearance to assess degradation, however, this provides no information regarding the quantity of derived end-products available to the host animal. As measurement of volatile fatty acids or microbial biomass production greatly increases analytical costs, fermentation gas release, a simple and non-destructive measurement, has been used as an alternative. However, as gas release alone is of little use, gas-based systems, where both degradation and fermentation gas release are measured simultaneously, are attracting considerable interest. Alternative microbial inocula are being considered, as is the potential of using multi-enzyme systems to examine degradation dynamics. It is concluded that while chemical analysis will continue to form an indispensable part of feed evaluation, enhanced use will be made of increasingly complex in vitro systems. It is vital, however, the function and limitations of each methodology are fully understood and that the temptation to over-interpret the data is avoided so as to draw the appropriate conclusions. With careful selection and correct application in vitro systems offer powerful research tools with which to evaluate feedstuffs. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The automation and evaluation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.

Isolation of culturable yeasts from market wines and evaluation of the 5 center dot 8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis for identification purposes

Aims: To test the possibility that wines available in the marketplace may contain culturable yeasts and to evaluate the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis as adequate means for the identification of isolates. Methods and Results: As a case study, typical Greek wines were surveyed. Sequence analysis of the 5.8S-ITS rDNA was tested for its robustness in species or strain identification. Sixteen isolates could be assigned into the species Brettanomyces bruxellensis, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Rhodotorula pinicola, whereas four isolates could not be safely identified. B. bruxellensis was the dominant species present in house wines, while non-Saccharomyces sp. were viable in aged wines of high alcohol content. Conclusions: Yeast population depends on postfermentation procedures or storage conditions. Although 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is generally a rapid method to identify wine yeast isolates at the species level, or even below that, it may not be sufficient for some genera. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first report to show that commercial wines may possess diverse and potentially harmful yeast populations. The knowledge of yeasts able to reside in this niche environment is essential towards integrated quality assurance programmes. For selected species, the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is a rapid and accurate means.

Design and evaluation of intelligent classifier based intrusion detection system

We have discovered a novel approach of intrusion detection system using an intelligent data classifier based on a self organizing map (SOM). We have surveyed all other unsupervised intrusion detection methods, different alternative SOM based techniques and KDD winner IDS methods. This paper provides a robust designed and implemented intelligent data classifier technique based on a single large size (30x30) self organizing map (SOM) having the capability to detect all types of attacks given in the DARPA Archive 1999 the lowest false positive rate being 0.04 % and higher detection rate being 99.73% tested using full KDD data sets and 89.54% comparable detection rate and 0.18% lowest false positive rate tested using corrected data sets.

Advanced global optimisation for mission analysis and design

This report describes the analysis and development of novel tools for the global optimisation of relevant mission design problems. A taxonomy was created for mission design problems, and an empirical analysis of their optimisational complexity performed - it was demonstrated that the use of global optimisation was necessary on most classes and informed the selection of appropriate global algorithms. The selected algorithms were then applied to the di®erent problem classes: Di®erential Evolution was found to be the most e±cient. Considering the speci¯c problem of multiple gravity assist trajectory design, a search space pruning algorithm was developed that displays both polynomial time and space complexity. Empirically, this was shown to typically achieve search space reductions of greater than six orders of magnitude, thus reducing signi¯cantly the complexity of the subsequent optimisation. The algorithm was fully implemented in a software package that allows simple visualisation of high-dimensional search spaces, and e®ective optimisation over the reduced search bounds.

Synthesis and evaluation of lipophilic BTBP ligands for An/Ln separation in nuclear waste treatment: the effect of alkyl substitution on extraction properties and implications for ligand design

Four new 6,6′-bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine (BTBP) ligands, which contain either additional alkyl groups on the pyridine rings or seven-membered aliphatic rings attached to the triazine rings, have been synthesized, and the effects of the additional alkyl substitution in the 4- and 4′-positions of the pyridine rings on their extraction properties with LnIII and AnIII cations in simulated nuclear waste solutions have been studied. The speciation of ligand 13 with some trivalent lanthanide nitrates was elucidated by 1H NMR spectroscopic titrations and ESI-MS. Although 13 formed both 1:1 and 1:2 complexes with LaIII and YIII, only 1:2 complexes were observed with EuIII and CeIII. Quite unexpectedly, both alkyl-substituted ligands 12 and 13 showed lower solubilities in certain diluents than the unsubstituted ligand CyMe4-BTBP. Compared to CyMe4-BTBP, alkyl-substitution was found to decrease the rates of metal-ion extraction of the ligands in both 1-octanol and cyclohexanone. A highly efficient (DAm > 10) and selective (SFAm/Eu > 90) extraction was observed for 12 and 13 in cyclohexanone and for 13 in 1-octanol in the presence of a phase-transfer agent. The implications of these results for the design of improved extractants for radioactive waste treatment are discussed.

Novel polyvinylpyrrolidones to improve delivery of poorly-water soluble drugs; from design to synthesis and evaluation

Polyvinylpyrrolidone is a widely used in tablet formulations with the linear form acting as a wetting agent and disintegrant whereas the cross-linked form is a super-disintegrant. We have previously reported that simply mixing the commercial cross-linked polymer with ibuprofen disrupted drug crystallinity with consequent improvements in drug dissolution behavior. In this study, we have designed and synthesized novel cross-linking agents containing a range of oligoether moieties which have then be polymerized with vinylpyrrolidone to generate a suite of novel excipients with enhanced hydrogen-bonding capabilities. The polymers have a porous surface and swell in most common solvents and in water; properties which suggest their value as disintegrants. The polymers were evaluated in simple physical mixtures with ibuprofen as a model poorly-water soluble drug. The results show that the novel PVPs induce the drug to become “X-ray amorphous”, which increased dissolution to a greater extent than that seen with commercial cross-linked PVP. The polymers stabilize the amorphous drug with no evidence for recrystallization seen after 20 weeks storage.

Framing evidence: policy design for the zero carbon home

In 2006 the UK government announced a move to zero carbon homes by 2016. The demand posed a major challenge to policy makers and construction professionals entailing a protracted process of policy design. The task of giving content to this target is used to explore the role of evidence in the policy process. Whereas much literature on policy and evidence treats evidence as an external input, independent of politics, this paper explores the ongoing mutual constitution of both. Drawing on theories of policy framing and the sociology of classification, the account follows the story of a policy for Zero Carbon Homes from the parameters and values used to specify the target. Particular attention is given to the role of Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs) and to the creation of a new policy venue, the Zero Carbon Hub. The analysis underlines the way in which the choices about how to model and measure the aims potentially transforms them, the importance of policy venues for transparency and the role of RIAs in the authorization of particular definitions. A more transparent, open approach to policy formulation is needed in which the framing of evidence is recognized as an integral part of the policy process.

Towards a meta-analysis and toolkit for port-related socio-economic impacts: a review of socio-economic impact studies conducted for seaports

Port authorities increasingly need to communicate with a variety of external stakeholders in order to maintain and strengthen the societal acceptance of seaport activities. The availability of socio-economic impact studies on port authority and regional development agency websites has often made this information accessible to the public at large. However, the differences in methodologies adopted, in terms of selecting, defining and measuring various types of socio-economic impacts, sometimes lead to misconceptions as well as misleading comparisons across ports within and between regions. In this paper, we suggest guidelines for the design and application of a potential best practice from an interregional perspective (UK, France and Belgium), based on research in the framework of a European Commission co-funded project, ‘IMPACTE’. The paper also aims to develop guidelines for comparing the socio-economic impacts of ports across regional and national borders and discusses the development of a European port economic impact measurement toolkit. We analyse a sample of 33 recent socio-economic impact assessment reports in terms of methodologies adopted and types of impacts measured. The review shows a great diversity among these studies, leading to important differences between the impacts of port activity communicated to stakeholders.

Synthesis, characterization and evaluation of antileishmanial activity of copper(II) with fluorinated alpha-hydroxycarboxylate ligands

In this study, Cu(II) complexes with fluorinated ligands were produced aiming at the development of new, less toxic antileishmanial metallodrugs. Complexes of the general formula CuL(2) (L = lactate, trifluorolactate, 2-hydroxyisobutyrate, trifluoro-2-hydroxyisobutyrate) were synthesized in methanolic medium, purified by crystallization and characterized by elemental analysis and electronic and infrared spectroscopies. In vitro experiments with Leishmania amazonensis promastigotes showed that the trifluorolactate derivative more active than its non-fluorinated counterpart. Our results indicate that fluorinated chelators may be interesting to increase metal toxicity and/or open new paths for metallodrug chemotherapy against leishmaniasis.