Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach

In the present paper, risk-management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market-based and informal risk-management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk-management tools is possible within a cost-minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no-arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.

An analysis of fatal accidents in agriculture in Great Britain

The number of fatal accidents in the agricultural, horticultural and forestry industry in Great Britain has declined from an annual rate of about 135 in the 1960's to its current level of about 50. Changes to the size and makeup of the population at risk mean that there has been no real improvement in fatal injury incidence rates for farmers. The Health and Safety Executives' (HSE) current system of accident investigation, recording, and analysis is directed primarily at identifying fault, allocating blame, and punishing wrongdoers. Relatively little information is recorded about the personal and organisational factors that contributed to, or failed to prevent accidents. To develop effective preventive strategies, it is important to establish whether errors by the victims and others, occur at the skills, rules, or knowledge level of functioning: are violations of some rule or procedure; or stem from failures to correctly appraise, or control a hazard. A modified version of the Hale and Glendon accident causation model was used to study 230 fatal accidents. Inspectors' original reports were examined and expert judgement applied to identify and categorise the errors committed by each of the parties involved. The highest proportion of errors that led directly to accidents occurred whilst the victims were operating at the knowledge level. The mix and proportion of errors varied considerably between different classes of victim and kind of accident. Different preventive strategies will be needed to address the problem areas identified.

Kockázatok a mezőgazdaságban (Risks in agriculture)

A szerző cikkében a mezőgazdaságban megjelenő kockázatokkal foglalkozik. Vizsgálja, hogy mely tényezők okoznak kockázatot e területen, illetve érinti a kockázat legsúlyosabb következményét, az éhínséget, csökkentésének módjait, valamint a mezőgazdasági biztosítás kérdését. ________ The paper analyzes the different types of risks appearing in agriculture. The paper aims to analyze both the factors that cause the risks and the most serious consequence of these risks, namely famine. The essay also tries to evaluate to possible ways risk can be decreased, especially with the focus on agricultural insurance.

The exchange of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in dwarf and fringe mangroves of the oligotrophic southern Everglades

Water management has altered both the natural timing and volume of freshwater delivered to Everglades National Park. This is especially true for Taylor Slough and the C-111 basin, as hypersaline events in Florida Bay have been linked to reduced freshwater flow in this area. In light of recent efforts to restore historical flows to the eastern Everglades, an understanding of the impact of this hydrologic shift is needed in order to predict the trajectory of restoration. I conducted a study to assess the importance of season, water chemistry, and hydrologic conditions on the exchange of nutrients in dwarf and fringe mangrove wetlands along Taylor Slough. I also performed mangrove leaf decomposition studies to determine the contribution of biotic and abiotic processes to mass loss, the effect of salinity and season on degradation rates, and the importance of this litter component as a rapid source of nutrients. ^ Dwarf mangrove wetlands consistently imported total nutrients (C, N, and P) and released NO2− +NO3 −, with enhanced release during the dry season. Ammonium flux shifted from uptake to release over the study period. Dissolved phosphate activity was difficult to discern in either wetland, as concentrations were often below detection limits. Fluxes of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the fringe wetland were positively related to DIN concentrations. The opposite was found for total nitrogen in the fringe wetland. A dynamic budget revealed a net annual export of TN to Florida Bay that was highest during the wet season. Simulated increases and decreases in freshwater flow yielded reduced exports of TN to Florida Bay as a result of changes in subsystem and water flux characteristics. Finally, abiotic processes yielded substantial nutrient and mass losses from senesced leaves with little influence of salinity. Dwarf mangrove leaf litter appeared to be a considerable source of nutrients to the water column of this highly oligotrophic wetland. To summarize, nutrient dynamics at the subsystem level were sensitive to short-term changes in hydrologic and seasonal conditions. These findings suggest that increased freshwater flow has the potential to lead to long-term, system-level changes that may reach as far as eastern Florida Bay. ^

Nutrient content of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum reveals regional patterns of relative availability of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Florida Keys USA

Between 1992 and 2000, we sampled 504 randomly chosen locations in theFlorida Keys, Florida, USA, for the elemental content of green leaves of theseagrass Thalassia testudinum. Carbon content ranged from29.4–43.3% (dry weight), nitrogen content from 0.88–3.96%, andphosphorus content from 0.048–0.243%. N and P content of the samples werenot correlated, suggesting that the relative availability of N and P variedacross the sampling region. Spatial pattern in C:N indicated a decrease in Navailability from inshore waters to the reef tract 10 km offshore;in contrast, the pattern in C:P indicated an increase in P availability frominshore waters to the reef tract. The spatial pattern in N:P was used to definea P-limited region of seagrass beds in Florida Bay and near shore, and anN-limited region of seagrass beds offshore. The close juxtaposition ofN–and P-limited regions allows the possibility that N loading from thesuburban Florida Keys could influence the offshore, N-limited seagrass bedswithout impacting the more nearshore, P-limited seagrass beds. Carbonate - Nutrient lim

Responses of seagrass communities to fertilization along a gradient of relative availability of nitrogen and phosphorus in a carbonate environment

Patterns of relative nutrient availability in south Florida suggest spatial differences regarding the importance of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to benthic primary producers. We did a 14-month in situ fertilization experiment to test predictions of N and P limitation in the subtropical nearshore marine waters of the upper Florida Keys. Six sites were divided into two groups (nearshore, offshore) representing the endpoints of an N: P stoichiometric gradient. Twenty-four plots were established at each site with six replicates of each treatment (1N, 1P, 1N1P, control), for a total of 144 experimental plots. The responses of benthic communities to N and P enrichment varied appreciably between nearshore and offshore habitats. Offshore seagrass beds were strongly limited by nitrogen, and nearshore beds were affected by nitrogen and phosphorus. Nutrient addition at offshore sites increased the length and aboveground standing crop of the two seagrasses, Thalassia testudinum and Syringodium filiforme, and growth rates of T. testudinum. Nutrient addition at nearshore sites increased the relative abundance of macroalgae, epiphytes, and sediment microalgae. N limitation of seagrass in this carbonate system was clearly demonstrated. However, added phosphorus was retained in the system more effectively than N, suggesting that phosphorus might have important long-term effects on these benthic communities. The observed species-specific responses to nutrient enrichment underscores the need to monitor all primary producers when addressing questions of nutrient limitation and eutrophication in seagrass communities.

Extractions and analyses of reactive phosphorus in the Bering Sea from IODP Holes 323-U1341A and 323-U1341B

To reconstruct the cycling of reactive phosphorus (P) in the Bering Sea, a P speciation record covering the last ~ 4 Ma was generated from sediments recovered during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 323 at Site U1341 (Bowers Ridge). A chemical extraction procedure distinguishing between different operationally defined P fractions provides new insight into reactive P input, burial and diagenetic transformations. Reactive P mass accumulation rates (MARs) are ~ 20-110 µmol/cm2/ka, which is comparable to other open ocean locations but orders of magnitude lower than most upwelling settings. We find that authigenic carbonate fluorapatite (CFA) and opal-bound P are the dominant P fractions at Site U1341. An overall increasing contribution of CFA to total P with sediment depth is consistent with a gradual "sink switching" from more labile P fractions (fish remains, Fe oxides, organic matter) to stable authigenic CFA. However, the positive correlation of CFA with Al content implies that a significant portion of the supposedly reactive CFA is non-reactive "detrital contamination" by eolian and/or riverine CFA. In contrast to CFA, opal-bound P has rarely been studied in marine sediments. We find for the first time that opal-bound P directly correlates with excess silica contents. This P fraction was apparently available to biosiliceous phytoplankton at the time of sediment deposition and is a long-term sink for reactive P in the ocean, despite the likelihood for diagenetic re-mobilisation of this P at depth (indicated by increasing ratios of excess silica to opal-bound P). Average reactive P MARs at Site U1341 increase by ~ 25% if opal-bound P is accounted for, but decrease by ~ 25% if 50% of the extracted CFA fraction (based on the lowest CFA value at Site U1341) is assumed to be detrital. Combining our results with literature data, we present a qualitative perspective of terrestrial CFA and opal-bound P deposition in the modern ocean. Riverine CFA input has mostly been reported from continental shelves and margins draining P-rich lithologies, while eolian CFA input is found across wide ocean regions underlying the Northern Hemispheric "dust belt". Opal-bound P burial is important in the Southern Ocean, North Pacific, and likely in upwelling areas. Shifts in detrital CFA and opal-bound P deposition across ocean basins likely occurred over time, responding to changing weathering patterns, sea level, and biogenic opal deposition.

Dissolved Iron, Aluminium, and Dissolved Inorganic Phosphorus in the (Sub-)Tropical Atlantic Surface Ocean

Inorganic nitrogen depletion restricts productivity in much of the low-latitude oceans, generating a selective advantage for diazotrophic organisms capable of fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). However, the abundance and activity of diazotrophs can in turn be controlled by the availability of other potentially limiting nutrients, including phosphorus (P) and iron (Fe). Here we present high-resolution data (~0.3°) for dissolved iron, aluminum, and inorganic phosphorus that confirm the existence of a sharp north-south biogeochemical boundary in the surface nutrient concentrations of the (sub)tropical Atlantic Ocean. Combining satellite-based precipitation data with results from a previous study, we here demonstrate that wet deposition in the region of the intertropical convergence zone acts as the major dissolved iron source to surface waters. Moreover, corresponding observations of N2 fixation and the distribution of diazotrophic Trichodesmium spp. indicate that movement in the region of elevated dissolved iron as a result of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone drives a shift in the latitudinal distribution of diazotrophy and corresponding dissolved inorganic phosphorus depletion. These conclusions are consistent with the results of an idealized numerical model of the system. The boundary between the distinct biogeochemical systems of the (sub)tropical Atlantic thus appears to be defined by the diazotrophic response to spatial-temporal variability in external Fe inputs. Consequently, in addition to demonstrating a unique seasonal cycle forced by atmospheric nutrient inputs, we suggest that the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms would likely characterize the response of oligotrophic systems to altered environmental forcing over longer timescales.