Transactions of the Scientific Association, Meriden, Conn.

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The role of central bank operating procedures in an economy with productive government spending

The choice of either the rate of monetary growth or the nominal interest rate as the instrument controlled by monetary authorities has both positive and normative implications for economic performance. We reexamine some of the issues related to the choice of the monetary policy instrument in a dynamic general equilibrium model exhibiting endogenous growth in which a fraction of productive government spending is financed by means of issuing currency. When we evaluate the performance of the two monetary instruments attending to the fluctuations of endogenous variables, we find that the inflation rate is less volatile under nominal interest rate targeting. Concerning the fluctuations of consumption and of the growth rate, both monetary policy instruments lead to statistically equivalent volatilities. Finally, we show that none of these two targeting procedures displays unambiguously higher welfare levels.

Memòria: estada a London South Bank University (Regne Unit)

Investigación producida a partir de una estancia en la London South Bank University, Reino Unido, entre los meses de setiembre y diciembre del 2005. Se estudia el trabajo sexual en el Reino Unido desde tres perspectivas diferentes. Por una parte, se trata la historia del feminismo anglosajón respecto a sus visiones sobre la prostitución, desde una aproximación a las fuentes. Por otra parte, se plantea la situación jurídico-política. Finalmente, se presenta brevemente a las principales entidades que dan apoyo al colectivo de trabajadoras del sexo en la ciudad de Londres.

On the Relationship between Market Power and Bank Risk Taking

We analyse risk-taking behaviour of banks in the context of spatial competition. Banks mobilise unsecured deposits by offering deposit rates, which they invest either in a prudent or a gambling asset. Limited liability along with high return of a successful gamble induce moral hazard at the bank level. We show that when the market power is low, banks invest in the gambling asset. On the other hand, for sufficiently high levels of market power, all banks choose the prudent asset to invest in. We further show that a merger of two neighboring banks increases the likelihood of prudent behaviour. Finally, introduction of a deposit insurance scheme exacerbates banks’ moral hazard problem.

Official Central Bank Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Markets: A DCC Approach with Exogenous Variables

This paper assesses the impact of official central bank interventions (CBIs) on exchange rate returns, their volatility and bilateral correlations. By exploiting the recent publication of intervention data by the Bank of England, this study is able to investigate fficial interventions by a total number of four central banks, while the previous studies have been limited to three (the Federal Reserve, Bundesbank and Bank of Japan). The results of the existing literature are reappraised and refined. In particular, unilateral CBI is found to be more successful than coordinated CBI. The likely implications of these findings are then discussed.

The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Liquidity, moral hazard and bank crises

Bank crises, by interrupting liquidity provision, have been viewed as resulting in welfare losses. In a model of banking with moral hazard, we show that second best bank contracts that improve on autarky ex ante require costly crises to occur with positive probability at the interim stage. When bank payoffs are partially appropriable, either directly via imposition of fines or indirectly by the use of bank equity as a collateral, we argue that an appropriately designed ex-ante regime of policy intervention involving conditional monitoring can prevent bank crises.

Designing the Optimal Conservativeness of the Central Bank

In this paper we propose a new measure of the degree of conservativeness of an inde- pendent central bank and we derive the optimal value from the social welfare perspective. We show that the mere appointment of an independent central bank is not enough to achieve lower inflation, which may explain the mixed results found between central bank independence and inflation in the empirical literature. Further, the optimal central bank should not be too conservative. For instance, we will show that in some circumstances it will be optimal that the central bank is less conservative than society in the Rogoff sense. JEL classification: E58, E63. Keywords: Central bank; Conservativeness; Independence.

Ballymena Youth Bank

This project will work with 14-25 year olds to increase their understanding of health issues relevant to their age group and increase their skills to encourage other young people to become actively involved in promoting health and raising health awareness through the YouthBank grant-making scheme. 10 sessions will be carried out.

Malaria seroprevalence in blood bank donors from endemic and non-endemic areas of Venezuela

In Venezuela, a total of 363,466 malaria cases were reported between 1999-2009. Several states are experiencing malaria epidemics, increasing the risk of vector and possibly transfusion transmission. We investigated the risk of transfusion transmission in blood banks from endemic and non-endemic areas of Venezuela by examining blood donations for evidence of malaria infection. For this, commercial kits were used to detect both malaria-specific antibodies (all species) and malaria antigen (Plasmodium falciparum only) in samples from Venezuelan blood donors (n = 762). All samples were further studied by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The antibody results showed that P. falciparum-infected patients had a lower sample/cut-off ratio than Plasmodium vivax-infected patients. Conversely, a higher ratio for antigen was observed among all P. falciparum-infected individuals. Sensitivity and specificity were higher for malarial antigens (100 and 99.8%) than for antibodies (82.2 and 97.4%). Antibody-positive donors were observed in Caracas, Ciudad Bolívar, Puerto Ayacucho and Cumaná, with prevalences of 1.02, 1.60, 3.23 and 3.63%, respectively. No PCR-positive samples were observed among the donors. However, our results show significant levels of seropositivity in blood donors, suggesting that more effective measures are required to ensure that transfusion transmission does not occur.

Latest Miocene - Pliocene Larger Foraminifera and depositional environments of the carbonate bank of La Désirade Island, Guadeloupe (French Antilles)

In this paper we present first results of the study of planktonic Foraminifera, large benthic Foraminifera and carbonate facies of La Désirade, aiming at a definition of the age and depositional environments of the Neogene carbonates of this island. The study of planktonic Foraminifera from the Detrital Offshore Limestones (DOL) of the Anciènne Carrière allows to constrain the biochronology of this formation to the lower Zone N19 and indicates a latest Miocene to early Pliocene (5.48 - 4.52 Ma) age. Large benthic Foraminifera were studied both as isolated and often naturally split specimens from the DOL, and in thin sections of limestones from the DOL and the Limestone Table (LT). The assemblages of Foraminifera include Nummulitidae, Amphisteginidae, Asterigerinidae, Peneroplidae, Soritidae, Rotalidae (Globigerinidae: Globigerinoides, Sphaeroidenellopsis, Orbulina) and incrusting Foraminifera (Homotrema and Sporadotrema). The genera Amphistegina, Archaias and Operculina are discussed. Concerning the Nummulitidae we include both "Paraspiroclypeus" chawneri and "Nummulites" cojimarensis, as well as a newly described species, Operculina desiradensis new species, in the genus Operculina, because the differences between these 3 species are rather on the specific than the generic level, while their morphology, studied by SEM, is compatible with the definition of the genus Operculina (D'Orbigny1826, emend. Hottinger 1977). The three species can be easily distinguished on the basis of their differences in spiral growth: while O. desiradensis has an overall logarithmic spiral growth, O. cojimarensis and especially O. chawneri show a tighter and more geometric spiral growth. O. cojimarensis and O. chawneri were originally described from Cuba in outcrops originally dated as Oligocene and later redated as early Pliocene. Therefore, O. chawneri was considered until now as restricted to the early Pliocene. However, in the absence of a detailed morphometric and biostratigraphic study of the Caribbean Neogene nummulitids, it is difficult to evaluate the biochronologic range of these species.The history of the carbonates begins with the initial tectonic uplift and erosion of the Jurassic igneous basement of La Désirade, that must have occurred at latest in late Miocene times, when sea-level oscillated around a long term stable mean. The rhythmic deposition of the Désirade Limestone Table (LT) can be explained by synsedimentary subsidence in a context of rapidly oscillating sea-level due to precession-driven (19-21 kyr) glacio-eustatic sea-level changes during the latest Miocene- Pliocene. Except for a thin reef cap present at the eastern edge of the LT, no other in-place reefal constructions have been observed in the LT. The DOL of western Désirade are interpreted as below wave base gravity deposits that accumulated beneath a steep fore-reef slope. They document the mobilisation of carbonate material (including Larger Foraminifera) from an adjacent carbonate platform by storms and their gravitational emplacement as debris and grain flows. The provenance of both the reefal carbonate debris and the tuffaceous components redeposited in the carbonates of La Désirade must be to the west, i. e. the carbonate platforms of Marie Galante and Grande Terre.