Performance of rubella suspect case definition: implications for surveillance

OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the rubella suspect case definition among patients with rash diseases seen at primary care units. METHODS: From January 1994 to December 2002, patients with acute rash, with or without fever, were seen at two large primary health care units and at a public general hospital in the municipality of Niterói, metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data from clinical and serologic assessment were used to estimate the positive predictive values of the definition of rubella suspect case from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and other combination of signs/symptoms taking serologic status as the reference. Serum samples were tested for anti-rubella virus IgM using commercially available enzyme immunoassays. Positive predictive values and respective 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1,186 patients with an illness characterized by variable combinations of rash with fever, arthropathy and lymphadenopathy were studied. Patients with rash, regardless of other signs and symptoms, had 8.8% likelihood of being IgM-positive for rubella. The Brazilian suspect case definition (fever and lymphadenopathy in addition to rash) had low predictive value (13.5%). This case definition would correctly identify 42.3% of the IgM-positive cases, and misclassify 26.1% of the IgM-negative cases. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the recommendation to investigate and collect clinical specimens for laboratory diagnosis of all cases of rash, for surveillance purposes. Although this strategy may increase costs, the benefits of interrupting the circulation of rubella virus and preventing the occurrence of congenital rubella syndrome should pay off.

A simulation model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol: delay/throughput evaluation of the GTS mechanism

The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol has the ability to support time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) applications due to the Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) Medium Access Control mechanism. Recently, several analytical and simulation models of the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol have been proposed. Nevertheless, currently available simulation models for this protocol are both inaccurate and incomplete, and in particular they do not support the GTS mechanism. In this paper, we propose an accurate OPNET simulation model, with focus on the implementation of the GTS mechanism. The motivation that has driven this work is the validation of the Network Calculus based analytical model of the GTS mechanism that has been previously proposed and to compare the performance evaluation of the protocol as given by the two alternative approaches. Therefore, in this paper we contribute an accurate OPNET model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol. Additionally, and probably more importantly, based on the simulation model we propose a novel methodology to tune the protocol parameters such that a better performance of the protocol can be guaranteed, both concerning maximizing the throughput of the allocated GTS as well as concerning minimizing frame delay.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal

A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.

Anti-Corrosion performance of a new silane coating for corrosion protection of AZ31 Magnesium alloy in Hank’s solution

Mg alloys can be used as bioresorsable metallic implants. However, the high corrosion rate of magnesium alloys has limited their biomedical applications. Although Mg ions are essential to the human body, an excess may cause undesirable health effects. Therefore, surface treatments are required to enhance the corrosion resistance of magnesium parts, decreasing its rate to biocompatible levels and allowing its safe application as bioresorbable metallic implants. The application of biocompatible silane coatings is envisaged as a suitable strategy for retarding the corrosion process of magnesium alloys. In the current work, a new glycidoxypropyltrimethoxysilane (GPTMS) based coating was tested on AZ31 magnesium substrates subjected to different surface conditioning procedures before coating deposition. The surface conditioning included a short etching with hydrofluoric acid (HF) or a dc polarisation in alkaline electrolyte. The silane coated samples were immersed in Hank's solution and the protective performance of the coating was studied through electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The EIS data was treated by new equivalent circuit models and the results revealed that the surface conditioning process plays a key role in the effectiveness of the silane coating. The HF treated samples led to the highest impedance values and delayed the coating degradation, compared to the mechanically polished samples or to those submitted to dc polarisation.

Influence of the Sodium/Proton replacement on the structural, morphological and photocatalytic properties of titanate nanotubes

Titanate nanotubes (TNT) with different sodium contents have been synthesised using a hydrothermal approach and a swift and highly controllable post-washing processes. The influence of the sodium/proton replacement on the structural and morphological characteristics of the prepared materials was analysed. Different optical behaviour was observed depending on the Na+/H+ samples’ content. A band gap energy of 3.27±0.03 eV was estimated for the material with higher sodium content while a value of 2.81±0.02 eV was inferred for the most protonated material, which therefore exhibits an absorption edge in the near visible region. The point of zero charge of the materials was determined and the influence of the sodium content on the adsorption of both cationic and anionic organic dyes was studied. The photocatalytic performance of the TNT samples was evaluated in the rhodamine 6G degradation process. Best photodegradation results were obtained when using the most protonated material as catalyst, although this material has shown the lowest R6G adsorption capability.

Acqusition and data analysis of the eco-efficiency for the establishment of indicators parameters for industrial environmental sustainability

The industrial activity is inevitably associated with a certain degradation of the environmental quality, because is not possible to guarantee that a manufacturing process can be totally innocuous. The eco-efficiency concept is globally accepted as a philosophy of entreprise management, that encourages the companies to become more competitive, innovative and environmentally responsible by promoting the link between its companies objectives for excellence and its objectives of environmental excellence issues. This link imposes the creation of an organizational methodology where the performance of the company is concordant with the sustainable development. The main propose of this project is to apply the concept of eco-efficiency to the particular case of the metallurgical and metal workshop industries through the development of the particular indicators needed and to produce a manual of procedures for implementation of the accurate solution.

Destruction of the tar present in syngas by combustion in porous media

The cleaning of syngas is one of the most important challenges in the development of technologies based on gasification of biomass. Tar is an undesired byproduct because, once condensed, it can cause fouling and plugging and damage the downstream equipment. Thermochemical methods for tar destruction, which include catalytic cracking and thermal cracking, are intrinsically attractive because they are energetically efficient and no movable parts are required nor byproducts are produced. The main difficulty with these methods is the tendency for tar to polymerize at high temperatures. An alternative to tar removal is the complete combustion of the syngas in a porous burner directly as it leaves the particle capture system. In this context, the main aim of this study is to evaluate the destruction of the tar present in the syngas from biomass gasification by combustion in porous media. A gas mixture was used to emulate the syngas, which included toluene as a tar surrogate. Initially, CHEMKIN was used to assess the potential of the proposed solution. The calculations revealed the complete destruction of the tar surrogate for a wide range of operating conditions and indicated that the most important reactions in the toluene conversion are C6H5CH3 + OH <-> C6H5CH2 + H2O, C6H5CH3 + OH <-> C6H4CH3 + H2O, and C6H5CH3 + O <-> OC6H4CH3 + H and that the formation of toluene can occur through C6H5CH2 + H <-> C6H5CH3. Subsequently, experimental tests were performed in a porous burner fired with pure methane and syngas for two equivalence ratios and three flow velocities. In these tests, the toluene concentration in the syngas varied from 50 to 200 g/Nm(3). In line with the CHEMKIN calculations, the results revealed that toluene was almost completely destroyed for all tested conditions and that the process did not affect the performance of the porous burner regarding the emissions of CO, hydrocarbons, and NOx.

Energy Resource Management under the Influence of the Weekend Transition Considering an Intensive use of Electric Vehicles

Energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and of massive electric vehicle is envisaged. The present paper proposes a methodology for day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G). This method considers that the energy resources are managed by a Virtual Power Player (VPP) which established contracts with their owners. It takes into account these contracts, the users' requirements subjected to the VPP, and several discharge price steps. The full AC power flow calculation included in the model takes into account network constraints. The influence of the successive day requirements on the day-ahead optimal solution is discussed and considered in the proposed model. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and V2G is used to illustrate the good performance of the proposed method.

Thermal performance of cool facades: evaluation by Infrared Thermography

High reflective paints (cool paints) are used on flat roofs to reduce heat gains from the incidence of solar radiation and thus improve the thermal comfort and energy efficiency of buildings, especially in summer periods. Given the application potential of these paints on vertical surfaces, a research study has been developed to evaluate the thermal performance of reflective paints on walls under real exposure conditions. Accordingly, different reflective paints have been applied as the final coating of an ETICS type solution, on the facades of a full scale experimental cell built at LNEC campus. For being applied in an ETICS system a paint has to fulfill several requirements, whether aesthetic or functional (such as the adhesion between the coating layers or the durability of the insulation), essential for its efficient performance. Since this construction coating system is subject to a prolonged sun exposure, various problems may arise, such as paint degradation or deterioration of the thermal insulation properties, particularly when dark colors are applied. To evaluate the thermal performance of the chosen paints, the method of non-destructive analysis by Infrared Thermography was used. Thermography allows knowing the temperature distribution of facades by measuring the radiation emitted by their surfaces. To complement the thermographic diagnosis, thermocouples were placed between the insulation and the paint system of the experimental cell. Additional laboratory tests allowed the characterization of the optical properties (reflectance and emittance) of the different reflective paints used in this study. The comparative analysis of the thermal performance of reflective and conventional paints revealed that the reflective paint allows a reduction of the facade surface temperature, reducing the risk of loss of insulating properties of the ETICS system and thus ensuring its longevity and functionality. The color of the paint used affects, naturally, the reflective ability of the surface and may have an important role in energy balance of the building. This paper also showed the potential of infrared thermography in the evaluation of the thermal performance of reflective paints.

Isokinetic assessment of the flexor-extensor balance of the knee in athletes with total rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament

The purpose of this study was to assess the flexor-extensor group of muscles of the knee in young athletes diagnosed with a total rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). Eighteen knees of 18 athletes (14 men and 4 women) with an average age of 21.6 years (range 16-32 years) were assessed with a Cybex 6000 model isokinetic apparatus. The average interval between occurrence of the injury and assessment was 10.2 months (range 2 - 48 months). There was an associated meniscal injury in eight of the knees. Athletes with any other kind of associated injury, limitation, or blockage of the movement of the joint, significant pain during the exam, or interval between injury and exam of less than two months were excluded from the study. The parameters studied were the peak torque-velocity and flexor-extensor relationships at the constant angular velocities of 60°/sec and 240°/sec. Previous warming-up was done by means of an ergometric bicycle and adaptation with 3 submaximal repetitions. The contra-lateral side, which presented no injury, was used as control. Peak torque (PT) at the constant velocity of 60°/sec was greater than that at 240°/sec for knees with and without injuries. However, there was no significant difference between the injured and uninjured sides at 60°/sec or at 240°/sec. The average value for the flexor-extensor relationship at 60°/sec on the injured was 60% (( 6), compared to 57% (( 10) on the contra-lateral side. At 240°/sec, the average value was 75% ((10) on the injured side, and 65% ((12) on the contra-lateral side. In conclusion, despite the complete rupture of the ACL of one knee, the average values for the flexor-extensor relationship were similar on the injured and uninjured sides at the velocity of 60°/sec. As the velocity increased, an increase in the values for the flexor-extensor relationship of the knee also occurred, indicating a tendency of the performance of the flexor muscle group to approach that of the extensor muscle group, and this tendency was more pronounced on the side of the injury.

Anatomy of the portuguese stock market risk and return in the 1977-2012 period

This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.

A spectrum-driven damage Identification technique : application and validation through the numerical simulation of the Z24 Bridge

The present paper focuses on a damage identification method based on the use of the second order spectral properties of the nodal response processes. The explicit dependence on the frequency content of the outputs power spectral densities makes them suitable for damage detection and localization. The well-known case study of the Z24 Bridge in Switzerland is chosen to apply and further investigate this technique with the aim of validating its reliability. Numerical simulations of the dynamic response of the structure subjected to different types of excitation are carried out to assess the variability of the spectrum-driven method with respect to both type and position of the excitation sources. The simulated data obtained from random vibrations, impulse, ramp and shaking forces, allowed to build the power spectrum matrix from which the main eigenparameters of reference and damage scenarios are extracted. Afterwards, complex eigenvectors and real eigenvalues are properly weighed and combined and a damage index based on the difference between spectral modes is computed to pinpoint the damage. Finally, a group of vibration-based damage identification methods are selected from the literature to compare the results obtained and to evaluate the performance of the spectral index.

A new competitive implementation of the electromagnetism-like algorithm for global optimization

The Electromagnetism-like (EM) algorithm is a population- based stochastic global optimization algorithm that uses an attraction- repulsion mechanism to move sample points towards the optimal. In this paper, an implementation of the EM algorithm in the Matlab en- vironment as a useful function for practitioners and for those who want to experiment a new global optimization solver is proposed. A set of benchmark problems are solved in order to evaluate the performance of the implemented method when compared with other stochastic methods available in the Matlab environment. The results con rm that our imple- mentation is a competitive alternative both in term of numerical results and performance. Finally, a case study based on a parameter estimation problem of a biology system shows that the EM implementation could be applied with promising results in the control optimization area.

Critical analyses of the introduction of liquid-based cytology in a public health service of the state of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the current conventional Pap smear with liquid-based cytology (LBC) preparations. STUDY DESIGN Women routinely undergoing their cytopathological and histopathological examinations at Fundação Oncocentro de São Paulo (FOSP) were recruited for LBC. Conventional smears were analyzed from women from other areas of the State of São Paulo with similar sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS A total of 218,594 cases were analyzed, consisting of 206,999 conventional smears and 11,595 LBC. Among the conventional smears, 3.0% were of unsatisfactory preparation; conversely, unsatisfactory LBC preparations accounted for 0.3%. The ASC-H (atypical squamous cells - cannot exclude high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) frequency did not demonstrate any differences between the two methods. In contrast, the incidence of ASC-US (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance) was almost twice as frequent between LBC and conventional smears, at 2.9 versus 1.6%, respectively. An equal percentage of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions were observed for the two methods, but not for low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, which were more significantly observed in LBC preparations than in conventional smears (2.2 vs. 0.7%). The index of positivity was importantly enhanced from 3.0% (conventional smears) to 5.7% (LBC). CONCLUSIONS LBC performed better than conventional smears, and we are truly confident that LBC can improve public health strategies aimed at reducing cervical lesions through prevention programs.