Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

A simulation model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol: delay/throughput evaluation of the GTS mechanism

The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol has the ability to support time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) applications due to the Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) Medium Access Control mechanism. Recently, several analytical and simulation models of the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol have been proposed. Nevertheless, currently available simulation models for this protocol are both inaccurate and incomplete, and in particular they do not support the GTS mechanism. In this paper, we propose an accurate OPNET simulation model, with focus on the implementation of the GTS mechanism. The motivation that has driven this work is the validation of the Network Calculus based analytical model of the GTS mechanism that has been previously proposed and to compare the performance evaluation of the protocol as given by the two alternative approaches. Therefore, in this paper we contribute an accurate OPNET model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol. Additionally, and probably more importantly, based on the simulation model we propose a novel methodology to tune the protocol parameters such that a better performance of the protocol can be guaranteed, both concerning maximizing the throughput of the allocated GTS as well as concerning minimizing frame delay.

Services innovation and economic performance: An analysis at the firm

In this paper we estimate a model linking innovation effort and economic performance, along the lines of the Mairesse and Mohnen (2003) model. We examine this relationship in the context of services sectors instead of Research and Development intensive manufacturing sectors. Much effort has already been made to explore the innovation-performance relationship for manufacturing sectors but it is still much understudied for services, particularly for Portugal. In this paper we aim to take a step in fulfilling this gap. We use new firm level data for ten services sectors from the Second Community Innovation Survey of Portugal, to estimate the model.

Automatic tunning of Okumura-Hata model on railway communications

This paper presents the Genetic Algorithms (GA) as an efficient solution for the Okumura-Hata prediction model tuning on railways communications. A method for modelling the propagation model tuning parameters was presented. The algorithm tuning and validation were based on real networks measurements carried out on four different propagation scenarios and several performance indicators were used. It was shown that the proposed GA is able to produce significant improvements over the original model. The algorithm developed is currently been used on real GSM-R network planning process for an enhanced resources usage.

On the performance limits of slotted CSMA/CA in IEEE 802.15.4 for broadcast transmissions in wireless sensor networks

The IEEE 802.15.4 has been adopted as a communication protocol standard for Low-Rate Wireless Private Area Networks (LRWPANs). While it appears as a promising candidate solution for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), its adequacy must be carefully evaluated. In this paper, we analyze the performance limits of the slotted CSMA/CA medium access control (MAC) mechanism in the beacon-enabled mode for broadcast transmissions in WSNs. The motivation for evaluating the beacon-enabled mode is due to its flexibility and potential for WSN applications as compared to the non-beacon enabled mode. Our analysis is based on an accurate simulation model of the slotted CSMA/CA mechanism on top of a realistic physical layer, with respect to the IEEE 802.15.4 standard specification. The performance of the slotted CSMA/CA is evaluated and analyzed for different network settings to understand the impact of the protocol attributes (superframe order, beacon order and backoff exponent), the number of nodes and the data frame size on the network performance, namely in terms of throughput (S), average delay (D) and probability of success (Ps). We also analytically evaluate the impact of the slotted CSMA/CA overheads on the saturation throughput. We introduce the concept of utility (U) as a combination of two or more metrics, to determine the best offered load range for an optimal behavior of the network. We show that the optimal network performance using slotted CSMA/CA occurs in the range of 35% to 60% with respect to an utility function proportional to the network throughput (S) divided by the average delay (D).

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Supplier's selection model based on an empirical study

The problem of selecting suppliers/partners is a crucial and important part in the process of decision making for companies that intend to perform competitively in their area of activity. The selection of supplier/partner is a time and resource-consuming task that involves data collection and a careful analysis of the factors that can positively or negatively influence the choice. Nevertheless it is a critical process that affects significantly the operational performance of each company. In this work, there were identified five broad selection criteria: Quality, Financial, Synergies, Cost, and Production System. Within these criteria, it was also included five sub-criteria. After the identification criteria, a survey was elaborated and companies were contacted in order to understand which factors have more weight in their decisions to choose the partners. Interpreted the results and processed the data, it was adopted a model of linear weighting to reflect the importance of each factor. The model has a hierarchical structure and can be applied with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method or Value Analysis. The goal of the paper it's to supply a selection reference model that can represent an orientation/pattern for a decision making on the suppliers/partners selection process

Fuzzy, integer and fractional-order control: application on a wind turbine benchmark model

This paper presents a comparison between proportional integral control approaches for variable speed wind turbines. Integer and fractional-order controllers are designed using linearized wind turbine model whilst fuzzy controller also takes into account system nonlinearities. These controllers operate in the full load region and the main objective is to extract maximum power from the wind turbine while ensuring the performance and reliability required to be integrated into an electric grid. The main contribution focuses on the use of fractional-order proportional integral (FOPI) controller which benefits from the introduction of one more tuning parameter, the integral fractional-order, taking advantage over integer order proportional integral (PI) controller. A comparison between proposed control approaches for the variable speed wind turbines is presented using a wind turbine benchmark model in the Matlab/Simulink environment. Results show that FOPI has improved system performance when compared with classical PI and fuzzy PI controller outperforms the integer and fractional-order control due to its capability to deal with system nonlinearities and uncertainties. © 2014 IEEE.

A flexibility reference model to achieve leagility in virtual organizations

The paper proposes a Flexibility Requirements Model and a Factory Templates Framework to support the dynamic Virtual Organization decision-makers in order to reach effective response to the emergent business opportunities ensuring profitability. Through the construction and analysis of the flexibility requirements model, the network managers can achieve and conceive better strategies to model and breed new dynamic VOs. This paper also presents the leagility concept as a new paradigm fit to equip the network management with a hybrid approach that better tackle the performance challenges imposed by the new and competitive business environments.

Framework for a business interoperability quotient measurement model

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova da Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial (MEGI)

Practical software improve design and performance of a randomly packed air stripping column for removing volatile organic compounds from water

STRIPPING is a software application developed for the automatic design of a randomly packing column where the transfer of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from water to air can be performed and to simulate it’s behaviour in a steady-state. This software completely purges any need of experimental work for the selection of diameter of the column, and allows a choice, a priori, of the most convenient hydraulic regime for this type of operation. It also allows the operator to choose the model used for the calculation of some parameters, namely between the Eckert/Robbins model and the Billet model for estimating the pressure drop of the gaseous phase, and between the Billet and Onda/Djebbar’s models for the mass transfer. Illustrations of the graphical interface offered are presented.

Performance management in a family business: a case study

This research, still at an early stage, and then presented in a poster format, intended to explain the management of organizational performance of a family business in the succession process using the case study method. The scripts for semi-structured interviews that will apply to managers, owners and other workers who are deemed suitable for the investigation, which include relatives of the owners of the company are being developed. For this work the model of organizational performance management developed by David Otley in 1999 [1], consisting of five questions that seek to explain the existing performance management in any organization is utilized.

ISO 9001 and business performance: a quantitative study in portuguese organizations

The effects of ISO 9001 quality certification process inside an organization may be considered on a wide range. This article places this phenomenon under a theoretical perspective and aims to analyze the impact of ISO 9001 quality standard on business performance according to the financial information data. More specifically, the impact of ISO 9001on productivity, business value and increase on sales is viewed through an econometric model of analysis concerning a panel data of Portuguese companies from the agro-food and to the construction sector. This analysis has presented interesting different results and in brief revealed that it may not be deterministically ascertained a direct connection between ISO 9001 certification and the improvement on business performance. Many other variables are committed to its success.

Performance assessment of a wind energy conversion system using a hierarchical controller structure

This paper deals with a hierarchical structure composed by an event-based supervisor in a higher level and two distinct proportional integral (PI) controllers in a lower level. The controllers are applied to a variable speed wind energy conversion system with doubly-fed induction generator, namely, the fuzzy PI control and the fractional-order PI control. The event-based supervisor analyses the operation state of the wind energy conversion system among four possible operational states: park, start-up, generating or brake and sends the operation state to the controllers in the lower level. In start-up state, the controllers only act on electric torque while pitch angle is equal to zero. In generating state, the controllers must act on the pitch angle of the blades in order to maintain the electric power around the nominal value, thus ensuring that the safety conditions required for integration in the electric grid are met. Comparisons between fuzzy PI and fractional-order PI pitch controllers applied to a wind turbine benchmark model are given and simulation results by Matlab/Simulink are shown. From the results regarding the closed loop point of view, fuzzy PI controller allows a smoother response at the expense of larger number of variations of the pitch angle, implying frequent switches between operational states. On the other hand fractional-order PI controller allows an oscillatory response with less control effort, reducing switches between operational states. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Road drivers performance appraisal using a MCDA method: a case study in the road transport company

Performance evaluation increasingly assumes a more important role in any organizational environment. In the transport area, the drivers are the company’s image and for this reason it is important to develop and increase their performance and commitment to the company goals. This evaluation can be used to motivate driver to improve their performance and to discover training needs. This work aims to create a performance appraisal evaluation model of the drivers based on the multi-criteria decision aid methodology. The MMASSI (Multicriteria Methodology to Support Selection of Information Systems) methodology was adapted by using a template supporting the evaluation according to the freight transportation company in study. The evaluation process involved all drivers (collaborators being evaluated), their supervisors and the company management. The final output is a ranking of the drivers, based on their performance, for each one of the scenarios used.