What Was I Thinking? Eye-Tracking Experiments Underscore the Bias that Architecture Exerts on Nuclear Grading in Prostate Cancer.

We previously reported that nuclear grade assignment of prostate carcinomas is subject to a cognitive bias induced by the tumor architecture. Here, we asked whether this bias is mediated by the non-conscious selection of nuclei that "match the expectation" induced by the inadvertent glance at the tumor architecture. 20 pathologists were asked to grade nuclei in high power fields of 20 prostate carcinomas displayed on a computer screen. Unknown to the pathologists, each carcinoma was shown twice, once before a background of a low grade, tubule-rich carcinoma and once before the background of a high grade, solid carcinoma. Eye tracking allowed to identify which nuclei the pathologists fixated during the 8 second projection period. For all 20 pathologists, nuclear grade assignment was significantly biased by tumor architecture. Pathologists tended to fixate on bigger, darker, and more irregular nuclei when those were projected before kigh grade, solid carcinomas than before low grade, tubule-rich carcinomas (and vice versa). However, the morphometric differences of the selected nuclei accounted for only 11% of the architecture-induced bias, suggesting that it can only to a small part be explained by the unconscious fixation on nuclei that "match the expectation". In conclusion, selection of « matching nuclei » represents an unconscious effort to vindicate the gravitation of nuclear grades towards the tumor architecture.

Role of Particle Shape on the Stress Propagation in Granular Packings

We present an experimental and numerical study on the influence that particle aspect ratio has on the mechanical and structural properties of granular packings. For grains with maximal symmetry (squares), the stress propagation in the packing localizes forming chainlike forces analogous to the ones observed for spherical grains. This scenario can be understood in terms of stochastic models of aggregation and random multiplicative processes. As the grains elongate, the stress propagation is strongly affected. The interparticle normal force distribution tends toward a Gaussian, and, correspondingly, the force chains spread leading to a more uniform stress distribution reminiscent of the hydrostatic profiles known for standard liquids

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Multiple target tracking using random sets

This paper presents several algorithms for joint estimation of the target number and state in a time-varying scenario. Building on the results presented in [1], which considers estimation of the target number only, we assume that not only the target number, but also their state evolution must be estimated. In this context, we extend to this new scenario the Rao-Blackwellization procedure of [1] to compute Bayes recursions, thus defining reduced-complexity solutions for the multi-target set estimator. A performance assessmentis finally given both in terms of Circular Position Error Probability - aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the estimated track - and in terms of Cardinality Error Probability, aimed at evaluating the reliability of the target number estimates.

Causal explanations and scientific realism in particle physics

Particle physics studies highly complex processes which cannot be directly observed. Scientific realism claims that we are nevertheless warranted in believing that these processes really occur and that the objects involved in them really exist. This dissertation defends a version of scientific realism, called causal realism, in the context of particle physics. I start by introducing the central theses and arguments in the recent philosophical debate on scientific realism (chapter 1), with a special focus on an important presupposition of the debate, namely common sense realism. Chapter 2 then discusses entity realism, which introduces a crucial element into the debate by emphasizing the importance of experiments in defending scientific realism. Most of the chapter is concerned with Ian Hacking's position, but I also argue that Nancy Cartwright's version of entity realism is ultimately preferable as a basis for further development. In chapter 3,1 take a step back and consider the question whether the realism debate is worth pursuing at all. Arthur Fine has given a negative answer to that question, proposing his natural ontologica! attitude as an alternative to both realism and antirealism. I argue that the debate (in particular the realist side of it) is in fact less vicious than Fine presents it. The second part of my work (chapters 4-6) develops, illustrates and defends causal realism. The key idea is that inference to the best explanation is reliable in some cases, but not in others. Chapter 4 characterizes the difference between these two kinds of cases in terms of three criteria which distinguish causal from theoretical warrant. In order to flesh out this distinction, chapter 5 then applies it to a concrete case from the history of particle physics, the discovery of the neutrino. This case study shows that the distinction between causal and theoretical warrant is crucial for understanding what it means to "directly detect" a new particle. But the distinction is also an effective tool against what I take to be the presently most powerful objection to scientific realism: Kyle Stanford's argument from unconceived alternatives. I respond to this argument in chapter 6, and I illustrate my response with a discussion of Jean Perrin's experimental work concerning the atomic hypothesis. In the final part of the dissertation, I turn to the specific challenges posed to realism by quantum theories. One of these challenges comes from the experimental violations of Bell's inequalities, which indicate a failure of locality in the quantum domain. I show in chapter 7 how causal realism can further our understanding of quantum non-locality by taking account of some recent experimental results. Another challenge to realism in quantum mechanics comes from delayed-choice experiments, which seem to imply that certain aspects of what happens in an experiment can be influenced by later choices of the experimenter. Chapter 8 analyzes these experiments and argues that they do not warrant the antirealist conclusions which some commentators draw from them. It pays particular attention to the case of delayed-choice entanglement swapping and the corresponding question whether entanglement is a real physical relation. In chapter 9,1 finally address relativistic quantum theories. It is often claimed that these theories are incompatible with a particle ontology, and this calls into question causal realism's commitment to localizable and countable entities. I defend the commitments of causal realism against these objections, and I conclude with some remarks connecting the interpretation of quantum field theory to more general metaphysical issues confronting causal realism.

Fecal Source Tracking in Iowa, 2004

Water fact sheet for Iowa Department of Natural Resources and the Geological Bureau.

Bacteria Source Tracking in Lake Darling Watershed, 2005

Monitoring of Iowa's surface waters during the past five years has demonstrated the regular occurrence of fecel bacteria in surface water resources.

Bilateral dorsal and ventral fiber pathways for the processing of affective prosody identified by probabilistic fiber tracking.

Dorsal and ventral pathways for syntacto-semantic speech processing in the left hemisphere are represented in the dual-stream model of auditory processing. Here we report new findings for the right dorsal and ventral temporo-frontal pathway during processing of affectively intonated speech (i.e. affective prosody) in humans, together with several left hemispheric structural connections, partly resembling those for syntacto-semantic speech processing. We investigated white matter fiber connectivity between regions responding to affective prosody in several subregions of the bilateral superior temporal cortex (secondary and higher-level auditory cortex) and of the inferior frontal cortex (anterior and posterior inferior frontal gyrus). The fiber connectivity was investigated by using probabilistic diffusion tensor based tractography. The results underscore several so far underestimated auditory pathway connections, especially for the processing of affective prosody, such as a right ventral auditory pathway. The results also suggest the existence of a dual-stream processing in the right hemisphere, and a general predominance of the dorsal pathways in both hemispheres underlying the neural processing of affective prosody in an extended temporo-frontal network.

Rate of convergence of a particle method to the solution of the Mc Kean-Vlasov's equation

This paper studies the rate of convergence of an appropriatediscretization scheme of the solution of the Mc Kean-Vlasovequation introduced by Bossy and Talay. More specifically,we consider approximations of the distribution and of thedensity of the solution of the stochastic differentialequation associated to the Mc Kean - Vlasov equation. Thescheme adopted here is a mixed one: Euler/weakly interactingparticle system. If $n$ is the number of weakly interactingparticles and $h$ is the uniform step in the timediscretization, we prove that the rate of convergence of thedistribution functions of the approximating sequence in the $L^1(\Omega\times \Bbb R)$ norm and in the sup norm is of theorder of $\frac 1{\sqrt n} + h $, while for the densities is ofthe order $ h +\frac 1 {\sqrt {nh}}$. This result is obtainedby carefully employing techniques of Malliavin Calculus.

Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium

Economics is the science of want and scarcity. We show that want andscarcity, operating within a simple exchange institution (double auction),are sufficient for an economy consisting of multiple inter--related marketsto attain competitive equilibrium (CE). We generalize Gode and Sunder's(1993a, 1993b) single--market finding to multi--market economies, andexplore the role of the scarcity constraint in convergence of economies to CE.When the scarcity constraint is relaxed by allowing arbitrageurs in multiple markets to enter speculative trades, prices still converge to CE,but allocative efficiency of the economy drops. \\Optimization by individual agents, often used to derive competitive equilibria,are unnecessary for an actual economy to approximately attain such equilibria.From the failure of humans to optimize in complex tasks, one need not concludethat the equilibria derived from the competitive model are descriptivelyirrelevant. We show that even in complex economic systems, such equilibriacan be attained under a range of surprisingly weak assumptions about agentbehavior.

Colonic movements in healthy subjects as monitored by a Magnet Tracking System.

The Magnet Tracking System (MTS) is a minimally-invasive technique of continuous evaluation of gastrointestinal motility. In this study, MTS was used to analyse colonic propulsive dynamics and compare the transit of a magnetic pill with that of standard radio-opaque markers. MTS monitors the progress in real time of a magnetic pill through the gut. Ten men and 10 women with regular daily bowel movements swallowed this pill and 10 radio-opaque markers at 8 pm. Five hours of recordings were conducted during 2 following mornings. Origin, direction, amplitude and velocity of movements were analysed relative to space-time plots of the pill trajectory. Abdominal radiographs were taken to compare the progress of both pill and markers. The magnetic pill lay idle for 90% of its sojourn in the colon; its total retrograde displacement accounted for only 20% of its overall movement. Analysis of these movements showed a bimodal distribution of velocities: around 1.5 and 50 cm min(-1), the latter being responsible for 2/3 of distance traversed. There were more movements overall and more mass movements in males. Net hourly forward progress was greater in the left than right colon, and greater in males. The position of the magnetic pill correlated well with the advancement of markers. MTS showed patterns and propulsion dynamics of colonic segments with as yet unmet precision. Detailed analysis of slow and fast patterns of colonic progress makes it possible to specify the motility of colonic segments, and any variability in gender. Such analysis opens up promising avenues in studies of motility disorders.

Tracking individuals shows spatial fidelity is a key regulator of ant social organization.

Ants live in organized societies with a marked division of labor among workers, but little is known about how this division of labor is generated. We used a tracking system to continuously monitor individually tagged workers in six colonies of the ant Camponotus fellah over 41 days. Network analyses of more than 9 million interactions revealed three distinct groups that differ in behavioral repertoires. Each group represents a functional behavioral unit with workers moving from one group to the next as they age. The rate of interactions was much higher within groups than between groups. The precise information on spatial and temporal distribution of all individuals allowed us to calculate the expected rates of within- and between-group interactions. These values suggest that the network of interaction within colonies is primarily mediated by age-induced changes in the spatial location of workers.