Alliance Politics in Hybrid Regimes : Political Stability and Instability since World War II

Cette thèse étudie la stabilité et l’instabilité politique des régimes hybrides. Elle pose la question suivante : dans quelles conditions l’autorité des élites au pouvoir est-elle reconnue ou contestée? Notre réponse s’articule en lien avec le caractère inclusif ou exclusif de la coalition dirigeante : c’est-à-dire, l’alliance stratégique des élites dirigeantes avec les groupes sociaux dominants. L’inclusion de ces derniers favorise le consentement et la stabilité; leur exclusion entraîne l’affrontement et l’instabilité politique. Sa composition dépend (i) du degré de violence organisée extra-légale et (ii) du degré de pénétration de l’État sur le territoire et dans l’économie. La première variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (militaires) ou du régime (partis d’opposition) est dominant et influence les formes de communication politique avec les élites dirigeantes. La deuxième variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (fonctionnaires) ou de la société (chefs locaux) est dominant et oriente les rapports entre les régions et le pouvoir central. L’apport de la recherche est d’approfondir notre compréhension des institutions politiques dans les régimes hybrides en mettant l’accent sur l’identité des groupes sociaux dominants dans un contexte donné. La thèse propose un modèle simple, flexible et original permettant d’appréhender des relations causales autrement contre-intuitives. En ce sens, la stabilité politique est également possible dans un pays où l’État est faible et/ou aux prises avec des mouvements de rébellion; et l’instabilité dans un contexte inverse. Tout dépend de la composition de la coalition dirigeante. Afin d’illustrer les liens logiques formulés et d’exposer les nuances de notre théorie, nous employons une analyse historique comparative de la coalition dirigeante en Malaisie (1957-2010), en Indonésie (1945-1998), au Sénégal (1960-2010) et au Paraguay (1945-2008). La principale conclusion est que les deux variables sont incontournables. L’une sans l’autre offre nécessairement une explication incomplète des alliances politiques qui forgent les conditions de stabilité et d'instabilité dans les régimes hybrides.

Photoemission optogalvanic effect near the instability region of a hollow cathode discharge

The photoemission optogalvanic (POG) effect has been investigated in a neon-neodymium hollow cathode discharge using cw laser excitation. Both positive and negative effects were observed. It was found that the amplitude of the POG signal was unstable near the instability region of the discharge.

Statistical dynamics of dislocation systems: The influence of dislocation-dislocation correlations.

During plastic deformation of crystalline materials, the collective dynamics of interacting dislocations gives rise to various patterning phenomena. A crucial and still open question is whether the long range dislocation-dislocation interactions which do not have an intrinsic range can lead to spatial patterns which may exhibit well-defined characteristic scales. It is demonstrated for a general model of two-dimensional dislocation systems that spontaneously emerging dislocation pair correlations introduce a length scale which is proportional to the mean dislocation spacing. General properties of the pair correlation functions are derived, and explicit calculations are performed for a simple special case, viz pair correlations in single-glide dislocation dynamics. It is shown that in this case the dislocation system exhibits a patterning instability leading to the formation of walls normal to the glide plane. The results are discussed in terms of their general implications for dislocation patterning.

Molecular effects on the cross section for pair production and their importance in the evaluation of the total photonuclear cross section of {^16}O in the {\delta-resonance} region

The screening correction to the coherent pair-production cross section on the oxygen molecule has been calculated using self-consistent relativistic wave functions for the one-center and two-center Coulomb potentials. It is shown that the modification of the wave function due to molecular binding and the interference between contributions from the two atoms have both sizeable effects on the screening correction. The so-obtained coherent pair-production cross section which makes up the largest part of the total atomic cross section was used to evaluate the total nuclear absorption cross section from photon attenuation measurements on liquid oxygen. The result agrees with cross sections for other nuclei if A-scaling is assumed. The molecular effect on the pair cross section amounts to 15 % of the nuclear cross section in the {\delta-resonance} region.

Preliminary Observations on Program Instability

This white paper reports emerging findings at the end of Phase I of the Lean Aircraft Initiative in the Policy focus group area. Specifically, it provides details about research on program instability. Its objective is to discuss high-level findings detailing: 1) the relative contribution of different factors to a program’s overall instability; 2) the cost impact of program instability on acquisition programs; and 3) some strategies recommended by program managers for overcoming and/or mitigating the negative effects of program instability on their programs. Because this report comes as this research is underway, this is not meant to be a definitive document on the subject. Rather, is it anticipated that this research may potentially produce a number of reports on program instability-related topics. The government managers of military acquisition programs rated annual budget or production rate changes, changes in requirements, and technical difficulties as the three top contributors, respectively, to program instability. When asked to partition actual variance in their program’s planned cost and schedule to each of these factors, it was found that the combined effects of unplanned budget and requirement changes accounted for 5.2% annual cost growth and 20% total program schedule slip. At a rate of approximately 5% annual cost growth from these factors, it is easy to see that even conservative estimates of the cost benefits to be gained from acquisition reforms and process improvements can quickly be eclipsed by the added cost associated with program instability. Program management practices involving the integration of stakeholders from throughout the value chain into the decision making process were rated the most effective at avoiding program instability. The use of advanced information technologies was rated the most effective at mitigating the negative impact of program instability.

Preliminary Observations on Program Instability

This white paper reports emerging findings at the end of Phase I of the Lean Aircraft Initiative in the Policy focus group area. Specifically, it provides details about research on program instability. Its objective is to discuss high-level findings detailing: 1) the relative contribution of different factors to a program’s overall instability; 2) the cost impact of program instability on acquisition programs; and 3) some strategies recommended by program managers for overcoming and/or mitigating the negative effects of program instability on their programs. Because this report comes as this research is underway, this is not meant to be a definitive document on the subject. Rather, is it anticipated that this research may potentially produce a number of reports on program instability-related topics. The government managers of military acquisition programs rated annual budget or production rate changes, changes in requirements, and technical difficulties as the three top contributors, respectively, to program instability. When asked to partition actual variance in their program’s planned cost and schedule to each of these factors, it was found that the combined effects of unplanned budget and requirement changes accounted for 5.2% annual cost growth and 20% total program schedule slip. At a rate of approximately 5% annual cost growth from these factors, it is easy to see that even conservative estimates of the cost benefits to be gained from acquisition reforms and process improvements can quickly be eclipsed by the added cost associated with program instability. Program management practices involving the integration of stakeholders from throughout the value chain into the decision making process were rated the most effective at avoiding program instability. The use of advanced information technologies was rated the most effective at mitigating the negative impact of program instability.

Charge transfer in DNA: hole charge is confined to a single base pair due to solvation effects

We include solvation effects in tight-binding Hamiltonians for hole states in DNA. The corresponding linear-response parameters are derived from accurate estimates of solvation energy calculated for several hole charge distributions in DNA stacks. Two models are considered: (A) the correction to a diagonal Hamiltonian matrix element depends only on the charge localized on the corresponding site and (B) in addition to this term, the reaction field due to adjacent base pairs is accounted for. We show that both schemes give very similar results. The effects of the polar medium on the hole distribution in DNA are studied. We conclude that the effects of polar surroundings essentially suppress charge delocalization in DNA, and hole states in (GC)n sequences are localized on individual guanines

The effectiveness of assessment learning objects produced using pair programming

Pair Programming is a technique from the software development method eXtreme Programming (XP) whereby two programmers work closely together to develop a piece of software. A similar approach has been used to develop a set of Assessment Learning Objects (ALO). Three members of academic staff have developed a set of ALOs for a total of three different modules (two with overlapping content). In each case a pair programming approach was taken to the development of the ALO. In addition to demonstrating the efficiency of this approach in terms of staff time spent developing the ALOs, a statistical analysis of the outcomes for students who made use of the ALOs is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ALOs produced via this method.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. II: Application to the Charney model

The constant-density Charney model describes the simplest unstable basic state with a planetary-vorticity gradient, which is uniform and positive, and baroclinicity that is manifest as a negative contribution to the potential-vorticity (PV) gradient at the ground and positive vertical wind shear. Together, these ingredients satisfy the necessary conditions for baroclinic instability. In Part I it was shown how baroclinic growth on a general zonal basic state can be viewed as the interaction of pairs of ‘counter-propagating Rossby waves’ (CRWs) that can be constructed from a growing normal mode and its decaying complex conjugate. In this paper the normal-mode solutions for the Charney model are studied from the CRW perspective. Clear parallels can be drawn between the most unstable modes of the Charney model and the Eady model, in which the CRWs can be derived independently of the normal modes. However, the dispersion curves for the two models are very different; the Eady model has a short-wave cut-off, while the Charney model is unstable at short wavelengths. Beyond its maximum growth rate the Charney model has a neutral point at finite wavelength (r=1). Thereafter follows a succession of unstable branches, each with weaker growth than the last, separated by neutral points at integer r—the so-called ‘Green branches’. A separate branch of westward-propagating neutral modes also originates from each neutral point. By approximating the lower CRW as a Rossby edge wave and the upper CRW structure as a single PV peak with a spread proportional to the Rossby scale height, the main features of the ‘Charney branch’ (0

The counterpropagating Rossby wave perspective on Kelvin Helmholtz instability as a limiting case of a Rayleigh shear layer with zero width

The Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) problem, with zero stratification, is examined as a limiting case of the Rayleigh model of a single shear layer whose width tends to zero. The transition of the Rayleigh modal dispersion relation to the KH one, as well as the disappearance of the supermodal transient growth in the KH limit, are both rationalized from the counterpropagating Rossby wave perspective.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. Part IV: Nonlinear life cycles

Pairs of counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs) can be used to describe baroclinic instability in linearized primitive-equation dynamics, employing simple propagation and interaction mechanisms at only two locations in the meridional plane—the CRW ‘home-bases’. Here, it is shown how some CRW properties are remarkably robust as a growing baroclinic wave develops nonlinearly. For example, the phase difference between upper-level and lower-level waves in potential-vorticity contours, defined initially at the home-bases of the CRWs, remains almost constant throughout baroclinic wave life cycles, despite the occurrence of frontogenesis and Rossby-wave breaking. As the lower wave saturates nonlinearly the whole baroclinic wave changes phase speed from that of the normal mode to that of the self-induced phase speed of the upper CRW. On zonal jets without surface meridional shear, this must always act to slow the baroclinic wave. The direction of wave breaking when a basic state has surface meridional shear can be anticipated because the displacement structures of CRWs tend to be coherent along surfaces of constant basic-state angular velocity, U. This results in up-gradient horizontal momentum fluxes for baroclinically growing disturbances. The momentum flux acts to shift the jet meridionally in the direction of the increasing surface U, so that the upper CRW breaks in the same direction as occurred at low levels

Undulation instability in block-copolymer lamellae subjected to a perpendicular electric field

We examine the stability of lamellar stacks in the presence of an electric field, E-0, applied normal to the lamellae. Calculations are performed with self-consistent field theory (SCFT) supplemented by an exact treatment of the electrostatic energy for linear dielectric materials. The calculations identify a critical electric field, E-0*, beyond which the lamellar stack becomes unstable with respect to undulations. This E-0* rapidly decreases towards zero as the number of lamellae in the stack diverges. Our quantitative predictions for E-0* are consistent with previous experimental measurements by Xu and co-workers.