Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Genetic shifts in Helicoverpa armigera Hubner (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) over a year in the Dawson/Callide Valleys

Microsatellites were used to analyse 68 collections of Helicoverpa armigera in the Dawson/Callide Valleys in central Queensland. The study aimed to evaluate the genetic structure in this region over a 12-month period (September 2000-August 2001). The results detected genetic shifts in H. armigera collections, with genetic changes occurring month by month. Collections in any month were genetically distant from the preceding month's collections. There was no observed difference between collections of H. armigera from the Biloela region and those found in the Theodore region of central Queensland. The data support the current area-wide management strategies for H. armigera by reinforcing the importance and contribution of local management practices. The study also indicates a need for the continuation of regional or Australia-wide approaches to management of the low levels of immigration that are occurring, and for future high pest pressure years.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Distribution and abundance of dugongs in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Dugong abundances in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) were estimated during six bi- monthly aerial surveys throughout 1995. Sampling intensity ranged between 20 and 80% for different sampling zones within the Bay, with a mean intensity of 40.5%. Population estimates for dugongs were corrected for perception bias ( the proportion of animals visible in the transect that were missed by observers), and standardised for availability bias ( the proportion of animals that were invisible due to water turbidity) with survey and species-specific correction factors. Population estimates for dugongs in Moreton Bay ranged from 503 +/- 64 (s.e.) in July to 1019 +/- 166 in January. The highest uncorrected count was 857 dugongs in December. This is greater than previous population estimates, suggesting that either previous surveys have underestimated abundance and/or that this population may have increased through recruitment, immigration, or a combination of both. The high degree of variation in population estimates between surveys may be due to temporal differences in distribution and herding behaviour. In winter, dugongs were found in smaller herds and were dispersed over a wider area than in summer. The Eastern Banks region of the bay supported 80 - 98% of the dugong population at any one time. Within this region, there were several dugong 'hot spots' that were visited repeatedly by large herds. These 'hot spots' contained seagrass communities that were dominated by species that dugongs prefer to eat. The waters of Rous Channel, South Passage and nearby oceanic waters are also frequently inhabited by dugongs in the winter months. Dugongs in other parts of Moreton Bay were at much lower densities than on the Eastern Banks.

Evaluation of line-transect sampling for estimating koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland

Distance sampling using line transects has not been previously used or tested for estimating koala abundance. In July 2001, a pilot survey was conducted to compare the use of line transects with strip transects for estimating koala abundance. Both methods provided a similar estimate of density. On the basis of the results of the pilot survey, the distribution and abundance of koalas in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland, was determined using line-transect sampling. In total, 134 lines (length 64 km) were used to sample bushland areas. Eighty-two independent koalas were sighted. Analysis of the frequency distribution of sighting distances using the software program DISTANCE enabled a global detection function to be estimated for survey sites in bushland areas across the Shire. Abundance in urban parts of the Shire was estimated from densities obtained from total counts at eight urban sites that ranged from 26 to 51 ha in size. Koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire was estimated at 4584 (95% confidence interval, 4040-5247). Line-transect sampling is a useful method for estimating koala abundance provided experienced koala observers are used when conducting surveys.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. II. Distribution and diet

This study used faecal pellets to investigate the broadscale distribution and diet of koalas in the mulgalands biogeographic region of south-west Queensland. Koala distribution was determined by conducting faecal pellet searches within a 30-cm radius of the base of eucalypts on 149 belt transects, located using a multi-scaled stratified sampling design. Cuticular analysis of pellets collected from 22 of these sites was conducted to identify the dietary composition of koalas within the region. Our data suggest that koala distribution is concentrated in the northern and more easterly regions of the study area, and appears to be strongly linked with annual rainfall. Over 50% of our koala records were obtained from non-riverine communities, indicating that koalas in the study area are not primarily restricted to riverine communities, as has frequently been suggested. Cuticular analysis indicates that more than 90% of koala diet within the region consists of five eucalypt species. Our data highlights the importance of residual Tertiary landforms to koala conservation in the region.

Impulse-response function of splanchnic circulation with model-independent constraints: theory and experimental validation

Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in humans. We want to develop a method to predict the portal venous time-activity curve from measurements of an arterial time-activity curve. An impulse-response function based on a continuous distribution of washout constants is developed and validated for the gut. Experiments with simultaneous blood sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [O-15] CO or injections of diffusible 3-O[ C-11] methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time ( T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: (T) over bar = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits from constraining the regression fits by parameters estimated independently. This is strong evidence for the physiological relevance of the impulse-response function, which includes asymptotically, and thereby justifies kinetically, a useful and simple power law. Similarity between our parameter estimates in pigs and parameter estimates in normal humans suggests that the proposed model can be adapted for use in humans.

Distribution of Chlamydia pneumoniae DNA in atherosclerotic carotid arteries: significance for sampling procedures

Despite extensive efforts to confirm a direct association between Chlamydia pneumoniae and atherosclerosis, different laboratories continue to report a large variability in detection rates. In this study, we analyzed multiple sections from atherosclerotic carotid arteries from 10 endartectomy patients to determine the location of C. pneumoniae DNA and the number of sections of the plaque required for analysis to obtain a 95% confidence of detecting the bacterium. A sensitive nested PCR assay detected C. pneumoniae DNA in all patients at one or more locations within the plaque. On average, 42% (ranging from 5 to 91%) of the sections from any single patient had C. pneumoniae DNA present. A patchy distribution of C. pneumoniae in the atherosclerotic lesions was observed, with no area of the carotid having significantly more C. pneumoniae DNA present. If a single random 30-mum-thick section was tested, there was only a 35.6 to 41.6% (95% confidence interval) chance of detecting C. pneumoniae DNA in a patient with carotid artery disease. A minimum of 15 sections would therefore be required to obtain a 95% chance of detecting all true positives. The low concentration and patchy distribution of C. pneumoniae DNA in atherosclerotic plaque appear to be among the reasons for inconsistency between laboratories in the results reported.

Full-scale demonstration of biological nutrient removal in a single tank SBR process

Complete biological nutrient removal (BNR) in a single tank, sequencing batch reactor (SBR) process, is demonstrated here at full-scale on a typical domestic wastewater. The unique feature of the UniFed process is the introduction of the influent into the settled sludge blanket during the settling and decant periods of the SBR operation. This achieves suitable conditions for denitrification and anaerobic phosphate release which is critical to successful biological phosphorus removal, It also achieves a selector effect, which helps in generating a compact, well settling biomass in the reactor. The results of this demonstration show that it is possible to achieve well over 90% removal of GOD, nitrogen and phosphorus in such a process. Effluent quality achieved over a six-month operating period directly after commissioning was: 29 mg/l GOD, 0.5 mg/l NH4-N, 1.5 mg/l NOx-N and 1.5 mg/l PO4-P (50%-iles of daily samples). During an 8-day, intensive sampling period, the effluent BOD5 was

Black and white and re(a)d all over again: Indigenous minstrelsy in contemporary Canadian and Australian theatre

This essay considers processes by which community identities are challenged by discussing the use of whiteface as an activist strategy in recent indigenous theatre in Canada and Australia. To understand whiteface, I employ Susan Gubar's notion of racechange, processes that test and even transgress racial borders. I also situate whiteface in relation to the history of blackface minstrelsy. Noting the ways these racial performances affirm the hierarchies of color and how power becomes invested in such color codings, the essay highlights indigenous employment of whiteface as a potential form of critical historiography. I then analyze how whiteface functions in two productions, Daniel David Moses's Almighty Voice and His Wife (1991) in Canada and the Queensland Theatre Company's 2000 revival of George Landen Dann's Fountains Beyond in Australia. My analysis posits that such indigenous performances of whiteface can affirm the identity of the marginalized other even as they destabilize the fixity of race and its meanings.

The over-production of US sports and the new International Division of Cultural Labor

This article focuses on how US professional sports utilize the New International Division of Cultural Labor to supplement an overly costly local labor pool and over-supplied local market. We argue that while the classic problem of over-production is slowly eroding the sealed-off nature of US culture, the forces of its hyper-protectionist capitalism continue to characterize sports, precluding equal exchange.

Parathyroid hormone venous sampling prior to reoperation for primary hyperparathyroidism

Background: The surgical cure rate for primary hyperparathyroidism is greater than 95%. For those who have recurrent or persistent disease, preoperative localization improves reoperation success rates. Selective parathyroid venous sampling (SPVS) for intact parathyroid hormone is particularly useful when non-invasive localization techniques are negative or inconclusive. Methods: We present all known cases (n = 13) between 1994 and 2002 who had venous sampling for localization at our institution prior to reoperation for recurrent or persistent primary hyperparathyroidism. Comparison was made with non-invasive localization procedures. Results of invasive and non-invasive localization were correlated with surgical findings. Results: Of the nine reoperated cases, eight had positive correlations between SPVS and operative findings and histopathology. SPVS did not reveal the parathyroid hormone source in one case with negative non-invasive localization procedures. Comparisons between SPVS, computerized tomography (CT), and parathyroid scintigraphy (MIBI) as expressed in terms of true positive (TP), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) were: SPVS - TP 88.8%, FP 0%, FN 11.1%; CT - TP 22.2%, FP 22.2%, FN 55.5%; and MIBI - TP 33.3%, FP 0%, FN 66.6%. At least seven of the nine operated cases have been cured; another remained normocalcaemic 2 weeks after subtotal parathyroidectomy. Conclusion: In our institution SPVS has proven to be a valuable tool in cases with recurrent or persistent primary hyperparathyroidism and negative non-invasive localization procedures.

Digitally-implemented naturally sampled PWM suitable for multilevel converter control

For dynamic closed loop control of a multilevel converter with a low pulse number (ratio of switching frequency to synthesized fundamental), natural sampled pulse-width modulation (PWM) is the best form of modulation. Natural sampling does not introduce distortion or a delayed response to the modulating signal. However previous natural sampled PWM implementations have generally been analog. For a modular multilevel converter, a digital implementation has advantages of accuracy and flexibility. Re-sampled uniform PWM is a novel digital modulation technique which approaches the performance of natural PWM. Both hardware and software implementations for a five level multilevel converter phase are presented, demonstrating the improvement over uniform PWM.

Preliminary Overview over Requirements Regarding Tools and Methods Derived from LUDA Cases

LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission