An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Interleukin-28B polymorphisms, IP-10, viral load and age predict the outcome of therapy in genotype 1 hepatitis C virus under real-life conditions

Background and Aims: IL28B polymorphisms, interferon (IFN)-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score have been reported to predict rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), but it is not known whether these factors represent independent, clinically useful predictors. The aim of the study was to assess factors (including IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 levels and HOMA-IR score) independently predicting response to therapy in CHC under real life conditions.Methods: Multivariate analysis of factors predicting RVR and SVR in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with pegylated IFN alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicenter study.Results: Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (vs. AG/GG) (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age < 40 yrs (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA < 400,000 IU/ml (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age < 40 yrs (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (32 of 33, 97%; OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99; p=0.009) or 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67; p=0.01).Conclusions: In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pretreatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

The impact of past direct-personal traumatic events on 12-month outcome in first episode psychotic mania: trauma and early psychotic mania.

OBJECTIVE: Past traumatic events have been associated with poorer clinical outcomes in people with bipolar disorder. However, the impact of these events in the early stages of the illness remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether prior traumatic events were related to poorer outcomes 12 months following a first episode of psychotic mania. METHODS: Traumatic events were retrospectively evaluated from patient files in a sample of 65 participants who had experienced first episode psychotic mania. Participants were aged between 15 and 28 years and were treated at a specialised early psychosis service. Clinical outcomes were measured by a variety of symptomatic and functioning scales at the 12-month time-point. RESULTS: Direct-personal traumatic experiences prior to the onset of psychotic mania were reported by 48% of the sample. Participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly higher symptoms of mania (p=0.02), depression (p=0.03) and psychopathology (p=0.01) 12 months following their first episode compared to participants without past direct-personal trauma, with medium to large effects observed. After adjusting for baseline scores, differences in global functioning (as measured by the Global Assessment of Functioning scale) were non-significant (p=0.05); however, participants with past direct-personal trauma had significantly poorer social and occupational functioning (p=0.04) at the 12-month assessment with medium effect. CONCLUSIONS: Past direct-personal trauma may predict poorer symptomatic and functional outcomes after first episode psychotic mania. Limitations include that the findings represent individuals treated at a specialist early intervention centre for youth and the retrospective assessment of traumatic events may have been underestimated.

Study design for technology assessment: critical issues.

The epidemiological methods have become useful tools for the assessment of the effectiveness and safety of health care technologies. The experimental methods, namely the randomized controlled trials (RCT), give the best evidence of the effect of a technology. However, the ethical issues and the very nature of the intervention under study sometimes make it difficult to carry out an RCT. Therefore, quasi-experimental and non-experimental study designs are also applied. The critical issues concerning these designs are discussed. The results of evaluative studies are of importance for decision-makers in health policy. The measurements of the impact of a medical technology should go beyond a statement of its effectiveness, because the essential outcome of an intervention or programme is the health status and quality of life of the individuals and populations concerned.

Individual versus standard quality of life assessment in a phase II clinical trial in mesothelioma patients: feasibility and responsiveness to clinical changes.

BACKGROUND: In patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma undergoing a multimodality therapy, treatment toxicity may outweigh the benefit of progression-free survival. The subjective experience across different treatment phases is an important clinical outcome. This study compares a standard with an individual quality of life (QoL) measure used in a multi-center phase II trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-one patients with stage I-III technically operable pleural mesothelioma were treated with preoperative chemotherapy, followed by pleuropneumonectomy and subsequent radiotherapy. QoL was assessed at baseline, at day 1 of cycle 3, and 1, 3 and 6 months post-surgery by using the Rotterdam Symptom Checklist (RSCL) and the Schedule for the Evaluation of Quality of Life-Direct Weighting (SEIQoL-DW), a measure that is based on five individually nominated and weighted QoL-domains. RESULTS: Completion rates were 98% (RSCL) and 92% (SEIQoL) at baseline and 98%/89% at cycle 3, respectively. Of the operated patients (N=45) RSCL and SEIQoL were available from 86%/72%, 93%/74%, and 94%/76% at months 1, 3, and 6 post-surgery. Average assessment time for the SEIQoL was 24min compared to 8min needed for the RSCL. Median changes from baseline indicate that both RSCL QoL overall score and SEIQoL index remained stable during chemotherapy with a clinically significant deterioration (change>or=8 points) 1 month after surgery (median change of -66 and -14 for RSCL and SEIQoL, respectively). RSCL QoL overall scores improved thereafter, but remained beneath baseline level until 6 months after surgery. SEIQoL scores improved to baseline-level at month 3 after surgery, but worsened again at month 6. RSCL QoL overall score and SEIQoL index were moderately correlated at baseline (r=.30; p<or=.05) and at 6-month follow-up (r=.42; p<or=.05) but not at the other time points. CONCLUSION: The SEIQoL assessment seems to be feasible within a phase II clinical trial, but may require more effort from staff. More distinctive QoL changes in accordance with clinical changes were measured with the RSCL. Our findings suggest that the two measures are not interchangeable: the RSCL is to favor when mainly information related to the course of disease- and treatment is of interest.

Assessing depression outcome in patients with moderate dementia: sensitivity of the HoNOS65+ scale.

To date, there is no widely accepted clinical scale to monitor the evolution of depressive symptoms in demented patients. We assessed the sensitivity to treatment of a validated French version of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale (HoNOS) 65+ compared to five routinely used scales. Thirty elderly inpatients with ICD-10 diagnosis of dementia and depression were evaluated at admission and discharge using paired t-test. Using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) "depressive mood" item as gold standard, a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis assessed the validity of HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item score changes. Unlike Geriatric Depression Scale, Mini Mental State Examination and Activities of Daily Living scores, BPRS scores decreased and Global Assessment Functioning Scale score increased significantly from admission to discharge. Amongst HoNOS65+F items, "behavioural disturbance", "depressive symptoms", "activities of daily life" and "drug management" items showed highly significant changes between the first and last day of hospitalization. The ROC analysis revealed that changes in the HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item correctly classified 93% of the cases with good sensitivity (0.95) and specificity (0.88) values. These data suggest that the HoNOS65+F "depressive symptoms" item may provide a valid assessment of the evolution of depressive symptoms in demented patients.

Closeness in relationships as a mediator between sexual abuse in childhood or adolescence and psychopathological outcome in adulthood.

The risk of adverse psychological outcomes in adult victims of childhood and adolescent sexual abuse (CSA) has been documented; however, research on possible mediating variables is still required, namely with a clinical perspective. The attachment literature suggests that secure interpersonal relationships may represent such a variable. Twenty-eight women who had experienced episodes of CSA, and 16 control women, were interviewed using Bremner's Early Trauma Inventory and the DSM-IV Global Assessment of Functioning; they also responded to Collins' Relationship Scales Questionnaire, evaluating adult attachment representations in terms of Closeness, Dependence and Anxiety. Subjects with an experience of severe abuse reported significantly more interpersonal distance in relationships (low index of Closeness) than other subjects. The index of psychopathological functioning was correlated with both the severity of abuse and attachment (low index of Closeness). Regression analysis on the sample of abused women revealed that attachment predicted psychopathology when abuse was controlled for, whereas abuse did not predict psychopathology when attachment was controlled for. Therefore, preserving a capacity for closeness with attachment figures in adulthood appears to mediate the consequences of CSA on subsequent psychopathological outcome.

Initial assessment of safety and clinical feasibility of irreversible electroporation in the focal treatment of prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the safety and clinical feasibility of focal irreversible electroporation (IRE) of the prostate. METHODS: We assessed the toxicity profile and functional outcomes of consecutive patients undergoing focal IRE for localised prostate cancer in two centres. Eligibility was assessed by multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and targeted and/or template biopsy. IRE was delivered under transrectal ultrasound guidance with two to six electrodes positioned transperineally within the cancer lesion. Complications were recorded and scored accordingly to the NCI Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events; the functional outcome was physician reported in all patients with at least 6 months follow-up. A contrast-enhanced MRI 1 week after the procedure was carried out to assess treatment effect with a further mpMRI at 6 months to rule out evidence of residual visible cancer. RESULTS: Overall, 34 patients with a mean age of 65 years (s.d.=±6) and a median PSA of 6.1 ng ml(-1) (interquartile range (IQR)= 4.3-7.7) were included. Nine (26%), 24 (71%) and 1 (3%) men had low, intermediate and high risk disease, respectively (D'Amico criteria). After a median follow-up of 6 months (range 1-24), 12 grade 1 and 10 grade 2 complications occurred. No patient had grade >/= 3 complication. From a functional point of view, 100% (24/24) patients were continent and potency was preserved in 95% (19/20) men potent before treatment. The volume of ablation was a median 12 ml (IQR=5.6-14.5 ml) with the median PSA after 6 months of 3.4 ng ml(-1) (IQR=1.9-4.8 ng ml(-1)). MpMRI showed suspicious residual disease in six patients, of whom four (17%) underwent another form of local treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Focal IRE has a low toxicity profile with encouraging genito-urinary functional outcomes. Further prospective development studies are needed to confirm the functional outcomes and to explore the oncological potential.

Late outcome of spinal cord stimulation for unreconstructable and limb-threatening lower limb ischemia.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the initial benefits of spinal cord stimulation (SCS) treatment for critical limb ischemia (CLI) persist over years. DESIGN: Analysis of data prospectively collected for every CLI patient receiving permanent SCS. Follow-up range 12 to 98 months (mean 46+/-23, median 50 months). POPULATION: 87 patients (28% stage III, 72%stage IV) with unreconstructable CLI due (83%) or not (17%) to atherosclerosis and with an initial sitting/supine transcutaneous pO2 gradient >15 mmHg. METHODS: Assessment of actuarial patient survival (PS), limb salvage (LS) and amputation-free patient survival (AFPS). Analysis of the impact of 15 risk factors on long-term outcomes using the Fischer's exact test for categorical variables and the t test for continuous variables. RESULTS: Follow-up was complete for patient and limb survival. A single non-atherosclerotic patient died during follow-up. Among atherosclerotic patients PS decreased from 88% at 1y, to 76% at 3y, 64% at 5y and 57% at 7y. LS reached 84% at 1y, 78% at 2y, 75% at 3y and remained stable thereafter. Diabetes was found to affect LS (p<0.05) and heart disease to reduce PS (p<0.01). AFPS was reduced in heart patients (p<0.01), diabetics (p<0.05) and in patients with previous stroke (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In CLI patients the beneficial effects of SCS persist far beyond the first year of treatment and major amputation becomes infrequent after the second year.

Is (1→3)-β-D-glucan the missing link from bedside assessment to pre-emptive therapy of invasive candidiasis?

ABSTRACT: Invasive candidiasis is a frequent life-threatening complication in critically ill patients. Early diagnosis followed by prompt treatment aimed at improving outcome by minimizing unnecessary antifungal use remains a major challenge in the ICU setting. Timely patient selection thus plays a key role for clinically efficient and cost-effective management. Approaches combining clinical risk factors and Candida colonization data have improved our ability to identify such patients early. While the negative predictive value of scores and predicting rules is up to 95 to 99%, the positive predictive value is much lower, ranging between 10 and 60%. Accordingly, if a positive score or rule is used to guide the start of antifungal therapy, many patients may be treated unnecessarily. Candida biomarkers display higher positive predictive values; however, they lack sensitivity and are thus not able to identify all cases of invasive candidiasis. The (1→3)-β-D-glucan (BG) assay, a panfungal antigen test, is recommended as a complementary tool for the diagnosis of invasive mycoses in high-risk hemato-oncological patients. Its role in the more heterogeneous ICU population remains to be defined. More efficient clinical selection strategies combined with performant laboratory tools are needed in order to treat the right patients at the right time by keeping costs of screening and therapy as low as possible. The new approach proposed by Posteraro and colleagues in the previous issue of Critical Care meets these requirements. A single positive BG value in medical patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis and expected to stay for more than 5 days preceded the documentation of candidemia by 1 to 3 days with an unprecedented diagnostic accuracy. Applying this one-point fungal screening on a selected subset of ICU patients with an estimated 15 to 20% risk of developing candidemia is an appealing and potentially cost-effective approach. If confirmed by multicenter investigations, and extended to surgical patients at high risk of invasive candidiasis after abdominal surgery, this Bayesian-based risk stratification approach aimed at maximizing clinical efficiency by minimizing health care resource utilization may substantially simplify the management of critically ill patients at risk of invasive candidiasis.

Detection of cognitive impairment with the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS) in adolescents with psychotic symptomatology.

Cognitive impairment has been identified in the early phase of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and is a major contributor to disease-related disability. While screening tools assessing cognitive impairment have been validated for adult schizophrenic populations, there is a need for brief, easily administered, standardized instruments that provide clinically relevant information for adolescents. This study examines the utility of the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS) in identifying and quantifying neurocognitive impairment in adolescents with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and other serious psychiatric illnesses. 112 adolescents, including 32 healthy subjects and 80 patients, were administered the RBANS. Patients with psychotic disorders demonstrated significant impairment on the RBANS total score compared to patients with other disorders and healthy controls, but this impairment appeared somewhat less severe than is typically reported for in adult patients with schizophrenia on this measure. The RBANS appears to be sensitive in the detection of neurocognitive impairment in a psychiatric population of adolescents with psychotic symptomatology, and may therefore have utility as a clinical screening instrument and/or neurocognitive outcome measure in this population.

Functional assessment of chest wall integrity after methylmethacrylate reconstruction.

BACKGROUND: All patients with extensive resection of the anterolateral chest wall and the sternum followed by reconstruction with methylmethacrylate substitutes were assessed prospectively 6 months after the operation to delineate chest wall integrity with pulmonary function and cine-magnetic resonance imaging. METHODS: Twenty-six patients underwent chest wall reconstruction by use of methylmethacrylate between 1994 and 1998 due to primary tumors in 35%, metastases in 27%, T3 lung cancer in 19%, and debridement for radionecrosis and osteomyelitis in 19% of patients. Three to eight ribs were resected and additional sternum resection was performed in 39% of patients. RESULTS: There was no 30-day mortality. All patients were extubated after the operation without need for reintubation. Prosthesis dislocation occurred in 1 patient and infection in 2 patients during follow-up. Nineteen patients (73%) suffered no restrictions of daily activities. Clinical examination revealed normal shoulder girdle function in 77% of patients. There was no significant difference between preoperative and postoperative FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 second) measurements in patients with lobectomy or wedge resections. Cinemagnetic resonance imaging revealed concordant chest wall movements during respiration in 92% of patients without paradoxical movements or implant dislocations being observed. CONCLUSIONS: Large defects of the anterolateral chest wall and sternum can be reconstructed efficiently with methylmethacrylate substitutes with minimal morbidity and excellent cosmetic and functional outcome.

Clinical outcome after trimipramine in patients with delusional depression - a pilot study

The treatment of delusional depression is a major challenge in psychopharmacology. Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) overdrive may contribute, via increased dopaminergic activity, to the pathophysiology of the disorder. Trimipramine appears to be an interesting potential candidate, since it is an atypical antidepressant that is known to inhibit HPA activity. In a four-week open trial we investigated its effects in 15 inpatients with delusional depression. The dosage was increased within 7 days up to 300 - 400 mg/d and was then maintained for three weeks. Psychometric assessments and safety monitoring were conducted weekly. Assessment of the HPA activity was achieved by a combined dexamethasone suppression/corticotropin-releasing hormone stimulation (Dex/CRH) test before and after four weeks of treatment. Therapeutic response was defined as a decrease in the HAMD-score of at least 50 %. Eight out of 13 completers were rated as responders. Therapeutic response was associated with L, D-trimipramine concentrations higher than 160 ng/ml. Intent-to-treat analysis showed significant improvement in psychometric variables. Despite the high dosage, the substance was generally well tolerated, with the exception of one patient who suffered from a hypotensive reaction. Mean +/- SD concentration of L-trimipramine and D-trimipramine were 138 +/- 61 ng/ml and 119 +/- 50 ng/ml at a final dose of 346 +/- 50 mg/d. The ACTH and cortisol area under the curve in the Dex/CRH tests decreased significantly, reflecting a decrease of activity in the HPA system. We suggest that the clinical use of high-dose trimipramine in delusional depression seems to be a promising treatment strategy.

Factors affecting cognitive outcome in early pediatric stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We examined cognitive performance in children after stroke to study the influence of age at stroke, seizures, lesion characteristics, neurologic impairment (NI), and functional outcome on cognitive outcome. METHODS: This was a prospectively designed study conducted in 99 children who sustained an arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) between the age of 1 month and 16 years. All children underwent cognitive and neurologic follow-up examination sessions 2 years after the insult. Cognitive development was assessed with age-appropriate instruments. RESULTS: Although mean cognitive performance was in the lower normative range, we found poorer results in subtests measuring visuoconstructive skills, short-term memory, and processing speed. Risk factors for negative cognitive outcome were young age at stroke, seizures, combined lesion location (cortical and subcortical), as well as marked NI. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that all children with a history of AIS undergo regularly scheduled neuropsychological assessment to ensure implementation of appropriate interventions and environmental adjustments as early as possible.

Long-term assessment of didanosine, lamivudine, and efavirenz in antiretroviral-naive patients: 3-year follow-up.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of didadosine (ddI), lamivudine (3TC), and efavirenz (EFV). This was a follow-up to the VESD study, a 12-month open-label, observational, multicenter study of adult patients with HIV infection who started antiretroviral treatment with the ddI-3TC-EFV once-daily regimen. Of the 167 patients originally included, 106 patients remained on the same triple therapy at the end of the study (1 year), and they were offered an extra 24 months of follow-up; 96 were enrolled in this study (VESD-2). Seventy patients out of the initial cohort were still on the same regimen at month 36, with 97% of them with plasma viral load <50 copies /ml. An intention-to-treat analysis showed that the percentage of patients with plasma viral load <50 copies/ml was 73% at 36 months. CD4 cell counts increased 344 cells/microl over the 36 months. Safety and tolerance were good with no unexpected long-term toxicity. After 3 years of treatment with ddI-3TC-EFV, more than 40% of the patients were still receiving the initial antiretroviral therapy with sustained, durable immunovirological benefit and good acceptance. Long-term toxicity and virological failure were low.