Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase.

Epitaxial growth of ultrathin palladium films on Re{0001}

Ultrathin bimetallic layers create unusual magnetic and surface chemical effects through the modification of electronic structure brought on by low dimensionality, polymorphism, reduced screening, and epitaxial strain. Previous studies have related valence and core-level shifts to surface reactivity through the d-band model of Hammer and Nørskov, and in heteroepitaxial films this band position is determined by competing effects of coordination, strain, and hybridization of substrate and overlayer states. In this study we employ the epitaxially matched Pd on Re{0001} system to grow films with no lateral strain. We use a recent advancement in low-energy electron diffraction to expand the data range sufficiently for a reliable determination of the growth sequence and out-of-plane surface relaxation as a function of film thickness. The results are supported by scanning tunneling microscopy and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy, which show that the growth is layer-by-layer with significant core-level shifts due to changes in film structure, morphology, and bonding.

Out of the ivory tower: the impact of wider social contact on the values, religious beliefs and identities of Chinese postgraduate students in the UK

This article explores the impact of wider social contact on the experience of Chinese postgraduate students of adaptation to life in the UK. Focus group and individual interviews were conducted with a group of 11 Chinese students on an MA programme at a university in southern England and individual interviews with three representatives of a local volunteer group (LVG) offering support to the Chinese students. Although it was perceived that the students’ support needs were not adequately met by the University, the additional support offered outside the University was unanimously valued and considered as enriching their cultural and linguistic experiences and meeting their expectations. However, frequent social contact with the LVG, whose members were mostly Christians, also had an impact on their values, religious beliefs and identities. In a discussion framed within the sociological perspective of proselytization or religious conversion and the broad framework of international education and globalization, the different responses to this contact are described in terms of believers, doubters, empathisers and commentators. Implications are considered for universities, people involved in providing social support for international students, and sponsors of international students.

Structure and spectra of dichloro(hydroxy-methoxy-di(2-pyridyl)methane)copper(II)

The non-electrolyte dichloro(hydroxy-methoxy-di(2-pyridylmethane)copper(II), resulting from the reaction of di(2-pyridyl)ketone and copper(II) chloride in methanol solution, was isolated and characterized and its structure was determined by X-ray diffraction. The pyridyl nitrogens and the chloride anions virtually from a basal plane in which lies the copper atom, while the oxygen of the methoxy group is in an apical position at a distance of 2.497 (3)Å. The nitrogenous base adopts the boat conformation with the pyridyl rings forming a dihedral angle of 108.72 (14)°. The nearest interatomic copper distance of 3.940(3)Å precludes copper-copper interactions, while the proximity of copper to the out-of-plane chlorine atoms [3.109(3)Å] suggests weakly bound chloro-bridged dimers. Spectral changes indicate that protic molecules displace the methoxy group and water affords the corresponding 1,1-diol.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase

Modulation of vaccine response by concomitant probiotic administration

Evidence suggests that probiotic bacteria modulate both innate and adaptive immunity in the host, and in some situations can result in reduced severity of common illnesses, such as acute rotavirus infection and respiratory infections. Responses to vaccination are increasingly being used to provide high quality information on the immunomodulatory effects of dietary components in humans. The present review focuses on the effect of probiotic administration upon vaccination response. The majority of studies investigating the impact of probiotics on responses to vaccination have been conducted in healthy adults, and at best they show modest effects of probiotics on serum or salivary IgA titres. Studies in infants and in elderly subjects are very limited, and it is too early to draw any firm conclusions regarding the potential for probiotics to act as adjuvants in vaccination. Although some studies are comparable in terms of duration of the intervention and age and characteristics of the subjects, most differ in terms of the probiotic selected. Further well designed, randomized, placebo-controlled studies are needed to fully understand the immunomodulatory properties of probiotics, whether the effects exerted are strain-dependent and age-dependent, and their clinical relevance in enhancing immune protection following vaccination.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association: tracking using graphical models

When performing data fusion, one often measures where targets were and then wishes to deduce where targets currently are. There has been recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data. This research has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships among the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit. Results for a multi-sensor scenario involving out-of-sequence data association are used to illustrate the utility of this approach in a specific context.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association

In data fusion systems, one often encounters measurements of past target locations and then wishes to deduce where the targets are currently located. Recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships between the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit.

Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation

Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically though, these two requirements cannot both be met at the same time–tracking the observations is not possible without the trajectory deviating from the proposed model equations, while adherence to the model requires deviations from the observations. Thus, data assimilation faces a trade-off. In this contribution, the sensitivity of the data assimilation with respect to perturbations in the observations is identified as the parameter which controls the trade-off. A relation between the sensitivity and the out-of-sample error is established, which allows the latter to be calculated under operational conditions. A minimum out-of-sample error is proposed as a criterion to set an appropriate sensitivity and to settle the discussed trade-off. Two approaches to data assimilation are considered, namely variational data assimilation and Newtonian nudging, also known as synchronization. Numerical examples demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

What determines the out-of-home placement of children in the USA?

Using NCANDS data of US child maltreatment reports for 2009, logistic regression, probit analysis, discriminant analysis and an artificial neural network are used to determine the factors which explain the decision to place a child in out-of-home care. As well as developing a new model for 2009, a previous study using 2005 data is replicated. While there are many small differences, the four estimation techniques give broadly the same results, demonstrating the robustness of the results. Similarly, apart from age and sexual abuse, the 2005 and 2009 results are roughly similar. For 2009, child characteristics (particularly child emotional problems) are more important than the nature of the abuse and the situation of the household; while caregiver characteristics are the least important. All these models have low explanatory power.

A review of the costs and benefits of demand response for electricity in the UK

The recent policy discussion in the UK on the economic case for demand response (DR) calls for a reflection on available evidence regarding its costs and benefits. Existing studies tend to consider the size of investments and returns of certain forms of DR in isolation and do not consider economic welfare effects. From review of existing studies, policy documents, and some simple modelling of benefits of DR in providing reserve for unforeseen events, we demonstrate that the economic case for DR in UK electricity markets is positive. Consideration of economic welfare gains is provided.