The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past-a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.

Engagement of CF3 Group in N-H center dot center dot center dot F-C Hydrogen Bond in the Solution State: NMR Spectroscopy and MD Simulation Studies

Unambiguous evidence for the engagement of CF3 group in N-H center dot center dot center dot F-C hydrogen bond in a low polarity solvent, the first observation of its kind, is reported. The presence of such weak molecular interactions in the solution state is convincingly established by one and two-dimensional H-1, F-19, and natural abundant N-15 NMR spectroscopic studies. The strong and direct evidence is derived by the observation of through-space couplings, such as, (1h)J(FH), (1h)J(FN), and (2h)J(FF), where the spin polarization is transmitted through hydrogen bond. In an interesting example of a molecule containing two CF3 groups getting simultaneously involved in hydrogen bond, where hydrogen bond mediated couplings are not reflected in the NMR spectrum, F-19-F-19 NOESY experiment yielded confirmatory evidence. Significant deviations in the strengths of (1)J(NH), variable temperature, and the solvent induced perturbations yielded additional support. The NMR results are corroborated by both DFT calculations and MD simulations, where the quantitative information on different ways of involvement of fluorine in two and three centered hydrogen bonds, their percentage of occurrences, and geometries have been obtained. The hydrogen bond interaction energies have also been calculated.

Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Numerical simulations of CO2 migration during charnockite genesis

Charnockite is considered to be generated either through the dehydration of granitic magma by CO2 purging or by solid-state dehydration through CO2 metasomatism during granulite facies metamorphism. To understand the extent of dehydration, CO2 migration is quantitatively modeled in silicate melt and metasomatic fluid as a function of temperature, H2O wt%, pressure, basal CO2 flux and dynamic viscosity. Numerical simulations show that CO2 advection through porous and permeable high-grade metamorphic rocks can generate dehydrated patches close to the CO2 flow path, as illustrated by the occurrences of ``incipient charnockites.'' CO2 reaction-front velocity constrained by field observations is 0.69 km/m.y., a reasonable value, which matches well with other studies. On the other hand, temperature, rate of cooling, and basal CO2 flux are the critical parameters affecting CO2 diffusion through a silicate melt. CO2 diffusion through silicate melt can only occur at temperature greater than 840 degrees C and during slow cooling (<= 3.7 x 10(-5) degrees C/yr), features that are typical of magma emplacement in the lower crust. Stalling of CO2 fluxing at similar to 840 degrees C explains why some deep-level plutons contain both hydrous and anhydrous (charnockitic) mineral assemblages. CO2 diffusion through silicate melt is virtually insensitive to pressure. Addition of CO2 basal flux facilitates episodic dehydrated melt migration by generating fracture pathways.

Pattern-growth based frequent serial episode discovery

Frequent episode discovery is a popular framework for pattern discovery from sequential data. It has found many applications in domains like alarm management in telecommunication networks, fault analysis in the manufacturing plants, predicting user behavior in web click streams and so on. In this paper, we address the discovery of serial episodes. In the episodes context, there have been multiple ways to quantify the frequency of an episode. Most of the current algorithms for episode discovery under various frequencies are apriori-based level-wise methods. These methods essentially perform a breadth-first search of the pattern space. However currently there are no depth-first based methods of pattern discovery in the frequent episode framework under many of the frequency definitions. In this paper, we try to bridge this gap. We provide new depth-first based algorithms for serial episode discovery under non-overlapped and total frequencies. Under non-overlapped frequency, we present algorithms that can take care of span constraint and gap constraint on episode occurrences. Under total frequency we present an algorithm that can handle span constraint. We provide proofs of correctness for the proposed algorithms. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms by extensive simulations. We also give detailed run-time comparisons with the existing apriori-based methods and illustrate scenarios under which the proposed pattern-growth algorithms perform better than their apriori counterparts. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterising weather patterns associated with fire in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India

Anthropogenic fires in seasonally dry tropical forests are a regular occurrence during the dry season. Forest managers in India, who presently follow a fire suppression policy in such forests, would benefit from a system of assessing the potential risk to fire on a particular day. We examined the relationship between weather variables (seasonal rainfall, relative humidity, temperature) and days of fire during the dry seasons of 2004-2010, based on MODIS fire incident data in the seasonally dry tropical forests of Mudumalai in the Western Ghats, southern India. Logistic regression analysis showed that high probabilities of a fire day, indicating successful ignition of litter and grass fuel on the forest floor, were associated with low levels of early dry season rainfall, low daily average relative humidity and high daily average temperatures. These weather conditions are representative of low moisture levels of fine fuels, suggesting that the occurrence of fire is moderated by environmental conditions that reduce the flammability of fine fuels in the dry tropics. We propose a quantitative framework for assessing risk of a fire day to assist forest managers in anticipating fire occurrences in this seasonally dry tropical forest, and possibly for those across South Asia.

The irregularities of the sunspot cycle and their theoretical modelling

The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most prominent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we introduce the flux transport dynamo model, the currently most successful theoretical model for explaining the 11-year sunspot cycle. Then we analyze the respective roles of nonlinearities and random fluctuations in creating the irregularities. We also discuss how it has recently been realized that the fluctuations in meridional circulation also can be a source of irregularities. We end by pointing out that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation and fluctuations in meridional circulation together can explain the occurrences of grand minima.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Fractal Pattern Formation In Anodic Bonding Of Pyrex Glass/Al/Si

Anodic bonding of Pyrex glass/Al/Si is an important bonding technique in micro/nanoelectromechanical systems (MEMS/NEMS) industry. The anodic bonding of Pyrex 7740 glass/Aluminum film/Silicon is completed at the temperature from 300 degrees C to 375 degrees C with a bonding voltage between 150 V and 450 V. The fractal patterns are formed in the intermediate Al thin film. This pattern has the fractal dimension of the typical two-dimensional diffusion-limited aggregation (2D DLA) process, and the fractal dimension is around 1.7. The fractal patterns consist of Al and Si crystalline grains, and their occurrences are due to the limited diffusion, aggregation, and crystallization of Si and Al atoms in the intermediate Al layers. The formation of the fractal pattern is helpful to enhance the bonding strength between the Pyrex 7740 glass and the aluminum thin film coated on the crystal silicon substrates.

Le sens un peu oublié de la première entrée de Ricoeur en herméneutique

Resumen: Dans les textes rétrospectifs où il s’est expliqué sur son «tournant herméneutique », Paul Ricoeur a fait valoir qu’il avait été dicté par l’impossibilité de se connaître directement soi-même et la nécessité d’emprunter le détour de l’interprétation dans la connaissance de soi. En se penchant sur la première apparition de l’herméneutique chez Ricoeur en 1960, dans Finitude et culpabilité, ce texte aimerait rappeler que d’autres motifs, oubliés plus tard, ont aussi été opérants, voire plus déterminants, notamment le souci de surmonter la modernité et de la guérir de son oubli du sacré.

Análise do recurso contra o poder conclusivo das comissões

Estudo dos recursos ao poder conclusivo das comissões da Câmara dos Deputados. Faz uma análise de dados do seu cabimento, de suas razões, sua ocorrência e a influência do Executivo. Para tanto, sistematiza as informações através da identificação e estudo dos dados que abrangem a 52ª Legislatura. Aborda os mecanismos regimentais pertinentes, além dos outros fatores intervenientes.

Recurso contra o poder conclusivo das comissões : uma análise

Estudo dos recursos ao poder conclusivo das comissões da Câmara dos Deputados, analisando dados do seu cabimento, de suas razões, sua ocorrência e a influência do Executivo. Para tanto, sistematiza as informações através da identificação e estudo dos dados que abrangem a 52ª Legislatura. Aborda os mecanismos regimentais pertinentes, além dos outros fatores intervenientes.

Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise

A summary is presented of research conducted on beach erosion associated with extreme storms and sea level rise. These results were developed by the author and graduate students under sponsorship of the University of Delaware Sea Grant Program. Various shoreline response problems of engineering interest are examined. The basis for the approach is a monotonic equilibrium profile of the form h = Ax2 /3 in which h is water depth at a distance x from the shoreline and A is a scale parameter depending primarily on sediment characteristics and secondarily on wave characteristics. This form is shown to be consistent with uniform wave energy dissipation per unit volume. The dependency of A on sediment size is quantified through laboratory and field data. Quasi-static beach response is examined to represent the effect of sea level rise. Cases considered include natural and seawalled profiles. To represent response to storms of realistic durations, a model is proposed in which the offshore transport is proportional to the "excess" energy dissipation per unit volume. The single rate constant in this model was evaluated based on large scale wave tank tests and confirmed with Hurricane Eloise pre- and post-storm surveys. It is shown that most hurricanes only cause 10% to 25% of the erosion potential associated with the peak storm tide and wave conditions. Additional applications include profile response employing a fairly realistic breaking model in which longshore bars are formed and long-term (500 years) Monte Carlo simulation including the contributions due to sea level rise and random storm occurrences. (PDF has 67 pages.)

Support for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserves System (NERRS), Volume II: Assessment of Ecological Condition and Stressor Impacts in Subtidal Waters of the North Carolina NERRS

A study was conducted to assess the status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks in subtidal estuarine waters throughout the North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) (Currituck Sound, Rachel Carson, Masonboro Island, and Zeke’s Island). Field work was conducted in September 2006 and incorporated multiple indicators of ecosystem condition including measures of water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundances of benthic fauna, fish contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). A probabilistic sampling design permitted statistical estimation of the spatial extent of degraded versus non-degraded condition across these estuaries relative to specified threshold levels of the various indicators (where possible). With some exceptions, the status of these reserves appeared to be in relatively good to fair ecological condition overall, with the majority of the area (about 54%) having various water quality, sediment quality, and biological (benthic) condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. Only three stations, representing 10.5% of the area, had one or more of these indicators rated as poor/degraded in all three categories. While such a conclusion is encouraging from a coastal management perspective, it should be viewed with some caution. For example, although co-occurrences of adverse biological and abiotic environmental conditions were limited, at least one indicator of ecological condition rated in the poor/degraded range was observed over a broader area (35.5%) represented by 11 of the 30 stations sampled. In addition, the fish-tissue contaminant data were not included in these overall spatial estimates; however, the majority of samples (77% of fish that were analyzed, from 79%, of stations where fish were caught) contained inorganic arsenic above the consumption limits for human cancer risks, though most likely derived from natural sources. Similarly, aesthetic indicators are not reflected in these spatial estimates of ecological condition, though there was evidence of noxious odors in sediments at many of the stations. Such symptoms reflect a growing realization that North Carolina estuaries are under multiple pressures from a variety of natural and human influences. These data also suggest that, while the current status of overall ecological condition appears to be good to fair, long-term monitoring is warranted to track potential changes in the future. This study establishes an important baseline of overall ecological condition within NC NERRS that can be used to evaluate any such future changes and to trigger appropriate management actions in this rapidly evolving coastal environment. (PDF contains 76 pages)

Egg production, spawning biomass and factors influencing recruitment of striped bass in the Potomac River and the upper Chesapeake Bay

Ichthyoplankton surveys in the Potomac River and Upper Chesapeake Bay were carried out in 1989 to estimate striped bass egg productions, age specific spawning biomasses of adult females, cohort-specific larval growth and mortality rates, and hatch dates of 8.0 mm larvae survivors. Possible consequences to recruitment of environmental factors were examined in 1989 and for data collected in 1987-1988. The temporal and spatial occurrences and distributions of eggs and larvae In both spawning areas are described and discussed in relation to environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, river discharge, pH, conductivity, zooplankton abundances) (PDF contains 319 pages)