Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inertia-Gravity Waves Emitted from Balanced Flow: Observations, Properties, and Consequences

This paper describes laboratory observations of inertia–gravity waves emitted from balanced fluid flow. In a rotating two-layer annulus experiment, the wavelength of the inertia–gravity waves is very close to the deformation radius. Their amplitude varies linearly with Rossby number in the range 0.05–0.14, at constant Burger number (or rotational Froude number). This linear scaling challenges the notion, suggested by several dynamical theories, that inertia–gravity waves generated by balanced motion will be exponentially small. It is estimated that the balanced flow leaks roughly 1% of its energy each rotation period into the inertia–gravity waves at the peak of their generation. The findings of this study imply an inevitable emission of inertia–gravity waves at Rossby numbers similar to those of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic flow. Extrapolation of the results suggests that inertia–gravity waves might make a significant contribution to the energy budgets of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, emission of inertia–gravity waves from mesoscale eddies may be an important source of energy for deep interior mixing in the ocean.

Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

The costs and consequences of parasitoid attack for the predatory hoverfly, Episyrphus balteatus

Question: What are the life-history costs for a predatory insect of surviving parasitoid attack, and can parasitoid attack alter predator-prey interactions? Hypotheses: Survivorship is influenced by host age. Hosts that suffer parasitoid attack grow more slowly and consume fewer prey. Those that survive attack are smaller as adults and show reduced survivorship. Organisms: The aphidophagous hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, its endoparasitoid wasp Diplazon laetatorius and its prey, the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Site of experiments: All experiments were conducted in controlled temperature rooms and chambers in the laboratory. Methods: Episyrphus balteatus larvae of each instar were exposed to attack by Diplazon laetatorius, then dissected to measure the encapsulation response (a measure of immunity). Second instar larvae were either attacked or not attacked by D. laetatorius. Their development rates and numbers of prey consumed were noted. The size and survivorship of surviving (immune) and control hoverflies were compared following eclosion. Conclusions: Successful immune response increased with larval age (first instar 0%, second instar 40%, third instar 100% survival). Second instar larvae that successfully resisted parasitoid attack were larger as pupae (but not as adults) and showed reduced adult survivorship. Female adult survivors were more likely than male survivors to have died within 16 days of eclosion, but there was no difference between unattacked male and female control hoverflies. Attacked larvae, irrespective of immune status, consumed fewer aphids than unattacked individuals. Episyrphus balteatus suffers significant costs of resisting parasitoid attack, and parasitoid attack can reduce the top-down effects of an insect predator, irrespective of whether the host mounts an immune response or not.

Occupational choice, socio-economic status and educational attainment: a study of the occupational choices and destinations of young people in the British household panel survey

The article considers young people's occupational choices at the age of 15 in relation to their educational attainment, the occupations of their parents and their actual occupations when they are in their early 20s. It uses data from the British Household Panel Survey over periods of between five and ten years. The young people in the survey are occupationally ambitious: many more aspire to professional, managerial and technical jobs than the likely availability of these occupations. In general ambitions and educational attainment and intentions are well aligned but there are also many instances of misalignment; either people wanting jobs which their educational attainments and intentions will not prepare them for, or people with less ambitious aspirations than their educational performance would justify. Children from more occupationally advantaged families are more ambitious, achieve better educationally and have better occupational outcomes than other children. However, where young people are both ambitious and educationally successful the occupational outcomes are as good for those from disadvantaged as advantaged families. In contrast, where young people are neither ambitious nor educationally successful, the outcomes for those from disadvantaged homes are very much poorer than for other young people. The article suggests that while choice is real it is also heavily constrained for many people. A possible educational implication of the study is that career interventions could be directed at under-ambitious but academically capable young people from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Reduced heart rate responding to trauma reliving in trauma survivors with PTSD: correlates and consequences

The authors investigated whether heart rate (HR) responses to voluntary recall of trauma memories (a) are related to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and (b) predict recovery 6 months later. Sixty-two assault survivors completed a recall task modeled on imaginal reliving in the initial weeks postassault. Possible cognitive modulators of HR responsivity were assessed; dissociation, rumination, trauma memory disorganization. Individuals with PTSD showed a reduced HR response to reliving compared to those without PTSD, but reported greater distress. Notably, higher HR response but not self-reported distress during reliving predicted greater symptom reduction at follow-up in participants with PTSD. Engagement in rumination was the only cognitive factor that predicted lower HR response. The data are in contrast to studies using trauma reminders to trigger memories, which have found greater physiological reactivity in PTSD. The authors' observations are consistent with models of PTSD that highlight differences between cued or stimulus-driven retrieval and intentional trauma recall, and with E B. Foa and M.J. Kozak (1986) hypothesis that full activation of trauma memories facilitates emotional processing.

Soya phytoestrogens change cortical and hippocampal expression of BDNF mRNA in male rats

Adult male hooded Lister rats were either fed a diet containing 150 microg/g soya phytoestrogens or a soya-free diet for 18 days. This concentration of phytoestrogens should have been sufficient to occupy the oestrogen-beta, but not the oestrogen-alpha, receptors. Using in situ hybridisation, significant reductions were found in brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) mRNA expression in the CA3 and CA4 region of the hippocampus and in the cerebral cortex in the rats fed the diet containing phytoestrogens, compared with those on the soya-free diet. No changes in glutamic acid decarboxylase-67 or glial fibrillary acidic protein mRNA were found. This suggests a role for oestrogen-beta receptors in regulating BDNF mRNA expression.