The causal effect of switching to second-line ART in programmes without access to routine viral load monitoring

We examined the effect of switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality in patients who experienced immunological failure in ART programmes without access to routine viral load monitoring in sub-Saharan Africa.

A missense mutation in the skeletal muscle chloride channel 1 (CLCN1) as candidate causal mutation for congenital myotonia in a New Forest pony

A 7-month-old New Forest foal presented for episodes of recumbency and stiffness with myotonic discharges on electromyography. The observed phenotype resembled congenital myotonia caused by CLCN1 mutations in goats and humans. Mutation of the CLCN1 gene was considered as possible cause and mutation analysis was performed. The affected foal was homozygous for a missense mutation (c.1775A>C, p.D592A) located in a well conserved domain of the CLCN1 gene. The mutation showed a recessive mode of inheritance within the reported pony family. Therefore, this CLCN1 polymorphism is considered to be a possible cause of congenital myotonia.

THE ROLE OF AN EXPLICIT CAUSAL FRAMEWORK IN AFFECTED SIB PAIR DESIGNS WITH COVARIATES

The affected sib/relative pair (ASP/ARP) design is often used with covariates to find genes that can cause a disease in pathways other than through those covariates. However, such "covariates" can themselves have genetic determinants, and the validity of existing methods has so far only been argued under implicit assumptions. We propose an explicit causal formulation of the problem using potential outcomes and principal stratification. The general role of this formulation is to identify and separate the meaning of the different assumptions that can provide valid causal inference in linkage analysis. This separation helps to (a) develop better methods under explicit assumptions, and (b) show the different ways in which these assumptions can fail, which is necessary for developing further specific designs to test these assumptions and confirm or improve the inference. Using this formulation in the specific problem above, we show that, when the "covariate" (e.g., addiction to smoking) also has genetic determinants, then existing methods, including those previously thought as valid, can declare linkage between the disease and marker loci even when no such linkage exists. We also introduce design strategies to address the problem.

Sensitivity Analysis for the Assessment of Causal Vaccine Effects on Viral Load in HIV Vaccine Trials

Vaccines with limited ability to prevent HIV infection may positively impact the HIV/AIDS pandemic by preventing secondary transmission and disease in vaccine recipients who become infected. To evaluate the impact of vaccination on secondary transmission and disease, efficacy trials assess vaccine effects on HIV viral load and other surrogate endpoints measured after infection. A standard test that compares the distribution of viral load between the infected subgroups of vaccine and placebo recipients does not assess a causal effect of vaccine, because the comparison groups are selected after randomization. To address this problem, we formulate clinically relevant causal estimands using the principal stratification framework developed by Frangakis and Rubin (2002), and propose a class of logistic selection bias models whose members identify the estimands. Given a selection model in the class, procedures are developed for testing and estimation of the causal effect of vaccination on viral load in the principal stratum of subjects who would be infected regardless of randomization assignment. We show how the procedures can be used for a sensitivity analysis that quantifies how the causal effect of vaccination varies with the presumed magnitude of selection bias.

Semiparametric Theory for Causal Mediation Analysis: efficiency bounds, multiple robustness, and sensitivity analysis

Whilst estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have also become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of the exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Although powerful semiparametric methodologies have been developed to analyze observational studies, that produce double robust and highly efficient estimates of the marginal total causal effect, similar methods for mediation analysis are currently lacking. Thus, this paper develops a general semiparametric framework for obtaining inferences about so-called marginal natural direct and indirect causal effects, while appropriately accounting for a large number of pre-exposure confounding factors for the exposure and the mediator variables. Our analytic framework is particularly appealing, because it gives new insights on issues of efficiency and robustness in the context of mediation analysis. In particular, we propose new multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal natural indirect and direct causal effects, and develop a novel double robust sensitivity analysis framework for the assumption of ignorability of the mediator variable.

On Causal Mediation Analysis with a Survival Outcome

Suppose that having established a marginal total effect of a point exposure on a time-to-event outcome, an investigator wishes to decompose this effect into its direct and indirect pathways, also know as natural direct and indirect effects, mediated by a variable known to occur after the exposure and prior to the outcome. This paper proposes a theory of estimation of natural direct and indirect effects in two important semiparametric models for a failure time outcome. The underlying survival model for the marginal total effect and thus for the direct and indirect effects, can either be a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model, or a marginal structural additive hazards model. The proposed theory delivers new estimators for mediation analysis in each of these models, with appealing robustness properties. Specifically, in order to guarantee ignorability with respect to the exposure and mediator variables, the approach, which is multiply robust, allows the investigator to use several flexible working models to adjust for confounding by a large number of pre-exposure variables. Multiple robustness is appealing because it only requires a subset of working models to be correct for consistency; furthermore, the analyst need not know which subset of working models is in fact correct to report valid inferences. Finally, a novel semiparametric sensitivity analysis technique is developed for each of these models, to assess the impact on inference, of a violation of the assumption of ignorability of the mediator.

Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Outcome-Dependent Sampling

In this paper, we consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals are drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome, and a few low-dimensional confounders. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random sub-sample of individuals are drawn from each stratum, with known, stratum-specific selection probabilities. On these individuals, a rich set of confounding factors are collected. In this setting, we introduce four estimators: (1) simple inverse weighted, (2) locally efficient, (3) doubly robust and (4)enriched inverse weighted. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators in a simulation study. We also use our methodology to estimate the causal effect of trauma care on in-hospital mortality using data from the National Study of Cost and Outcomes of Trauma.

A noncoding melanophilin gene (MLPH) SNP at the splice donor of exon 1 represents a candidate causal mutation for coat color dilution in dogs

Coat color dilution in several breeds of dog is characterized by a specific pigmentation phenotype and sometimes accompanied by hair loss and recurrent skin inflammation, the so-called color dilution alopecia or black hair follicular dysplasia. Coat color dilution (d) is inherited as a Mendelian autosomal recessive trait. In a previous study, MLPH polymorphisms showed perfect cosegregation with the dilute phenotype within breeds. However, different dilute haplotypes were found in different breeds, and no single polymorphism was identified in the coding sequence that was likely to be causative for the dilute phenotype. We resequenced the 5'-region of the canine MLPH gene and identified a strong candidate single nucleotide polymorphism within the nontranslated exon 1, which showed perfect association to the dilute phenotype in 65 dilute dogs from 7 different breeds. The A/G polymorphism is located at the last nucleotide of exon 1 and the mutant A-allele is predicted to reduce splicing efficiency 8-fold. An MLPH mRNA expression study using quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction confirmed that dd animals had only about approximately 25% of the MLPH transcript compared with DD animals. These results provide preliminary evidence that the reported regulatory MLPH mutation might represent a causal mutation for coat color dilution in dogs.