The interrelationship between monetary policy and the interbank money market during the financial crisis

Die vorliegende Dissertation besteht aus sechs Kapiteln und trägt zur Forschung in den Bereichen der Finanzmarktpolitik und der Geldpolitik bei. Das zweite Kapitel zeigt die Wechselbeziehung zwischen Geldmarktanspannungen und der Stabilität des Finanzsystems auf. Mittels der theoretischen Literatur werden verschiedene Einflussfaktoren einer aggregierten Liquiditätsnachfragefunktion präsentiert. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht den Informationsgehalt der Ergebnisse der Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte für den europäischen Geldmarkt. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich seit der Finanzkrise der Informationsgehalt der Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte in zweierlei Hinsicht verändert hat. Im vierten Kapitel untersuchen wir die Wirksamkeit der Geldpolitik während der Finanzkrise europäische Geldmarktzinssätze zu steuern. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf eine erhebliche Divergenz zwischen den Zinssätzen und den Erwartungen über die zukünftige Geldpolitik hin. Weiterhin finden wir heraus, dass die unkonventionellen Maßnahmen der EZB für einen Rückgang der Euriborsätze von bis zu 60 Basispunkten verantwortlich sind. Das fünfte Kapitel beschäftigt sich mit der Funktionsweise des besonderen geldpolitischen Instrumentariums der Schweizerischen Nationalbank.

A New Prediction Model for Slope Stability Analysis

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

Two new rapid SNP-typing methods for classifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex into the main phylogenetic lineages

There is increasing evidence that strain variation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) might influence the outcome of tuberculosis infection and disease. To assess genotype-phenotype associations, phylogenetically robust molecular markers and appropriate genotyping tools are required. Most current genotyping methods for MTBC are based on mobile or repetitive DNA elements. Because these elements are prone to convergent evolution, the corresponding genotyping techniques are suboptimal for phylogenetic studies and strain classification. By contrast, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) are ideal markers for classifying MTBC into phylogenetic lineages, as they exhibit very low degrees of homoplasy. In this study, we developed two complementary SNP-based genotyping methods to classify strains into the six main human-associated lineages of MTBC, the "Beijing" sublineage, and the clade comprising Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium caprae. Phylogenetically informative SNPs were obtained from 22 MTBC whole-genome sequences. The first assay, referred to as MOL-PCR, is a ligation-dependent PCR with signal detection by fluorescent microspheres and a Luminex flow cytometer, which simultaneously interrogates eight SNPs. The second assay is based on six individual TaqMan real-time PCR assays for singleplex SNP-typing. We compared MOL-PCR and TaqMan results in two panels of clinical MTBC isolates. Both methods agreed fully when assigning 36 well-characterized strains into the main phylogenetic lineages. The sensitivity in allele-calling was 98.6% and 98.8% for MOL-PCR and TaqMan, respectively. Typing of an additional panel of 78 unknown clinical isolates revealed 99.2% and 100% sensitivity in allele-calling, respectively, and 100% agreement in lineage assignment between both methods. While MOL-PCR and TaqMan are both highly sensitive and specific, MOL-PCR is ideal for classification of isolates with no previous information, whereas TaqMan is faster for confirmation. Furthermore, both methods are rapid, flexible and comparably inexpensive.