Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

The neural basis for writing from dictation in the temporoparietal cortex.

Cortical electrical stimulation mapping was used to study neural substrates of the function of writing in the temporoparietal cortex. We identified the sites involved in oral language (sentence reading and naming) and writing from dictation, in order to spare these areas during removal of brain tumours in 30 patients (23 in the left, and 7 in the right hemisphere). Electrostimulation of the cortex impaired writing ability in 62 restricted cortical areas (.25 cm2). These were found in left temporoparietal lobes and were mostly located along the superior temporal gyrus (Brodmann's areas 22 and 42). Stimulation of right temporoparietal lobes in right-handed patients produced no writing impairments. However there was a high variability of location between individuals. Stimulation resulted in combined symptoms (affecting oral language and writing) in fourteen patients, whereas in eight other patients, stimulation-induced pure agraphia symptoms with no oral language disturbance in twelve of the identified areas. Each detected area affected writing in a different way. We detected the various different stages of the auditory-to-motor pathway of writing from dictation: either through comprehension of the dictated sentences (word deafness areas), lexico-semantic retrieval, or phonologic processing. In group analysis, barycentres of all different types of writing interferences reveal a hierarchical functional organization along the superior temporal gyrus from initial word recognition to lexico-semantic and phonologic processes along the ventral and the dorsal comprehension pathways, supporting the previously described auditory-to-motor process. The left posterior Sylvian region supports different aspects of writing function that are extremely specialized and localized, sometimes being segregated in a way that could account for the occurrence of pure agraphia that has long-been described in cases of damage to this region.

Ochratoxin A at nanomolar concentration perturbs the homeostasis of neural stem cells in highly differentiated but not in immature three-dimensional brain cell cultures.

Ochratoxin A (OTA), a fungal contaminant of basic food commodities, is known to be highly cytotoxic, but the pathways underlying adverse effects at subcytotoxic concentrations remain to be elucidated. Recent reports indicate that OTA affects cell cycle regulation. Therefore, 3D brain cell cultures were used to study OTA effects on mitotically active neural stem/progenitor cells, comparing highly differentiated cultures with their immature counterparts. Changes in the rate of DNA synthesis were related to early changes in the mRNA expression of neural stem/progenitor cell markers. OTA at 10nM, a concentration below the cytotoxic level, was ineffective in immature cultures, whereas in mature cultures it significantly decreased the rate of DNA synthesis together with the mRNA expression of key transcriptional regulators such as Sox2, Mash1, Hes5, and Gli1; the cell cycle activator cyclin D2; the phenotypic markers nestin, doublecortin, and PDGFRα. These effects were largely prevented by Sonic hedgehog (Shh) peptide (500ngml(-1)) administration, indicating that OTA impaired the Shh pathway and the Sox2 regulatory transcription factor critical for stem cell self-renewal. Similar adverse effects of OTA in vivo might perturb the regulation of stem cell proliferation in the adult brain and in other organs exhibiting homeostatic and/or regenerative cell proliferation.

Dysregulated activation of the CXCR4/CXCL12 Axisand its role in the malignant phenotype of neural crest-derived neuroblastoma tumours

Résumé: Le neuroblastome (NB) est un néoplasme dévastateur de la petite enfance, pour lequel il n'existe pas encore de traitement efficace. Les chimiokines et leurs récepteurs ont été impliqués dans la croissance des tumeurs et la formation de métastases, et en particulier, il a été rapporté que l'axe CXCR4/CXCL12 dirigeait le guidage, ainsi que l'invasion des cellules cancéreuses vers des organes spécifiques. Notre étude avait pour objectif d'analyser le rôle de CxCR4 exogène dans le comportement malin du NB, en étudiant la croissance des cellules tumorales, leur capacité de survie, de migration et d'invasion in vitro et en validant ces résultats grâce à un modèle orthotopique murin de la progression tumorale du NB in vivo. La surexpression de CXCR4 dans les cellules faiblement métastatiques IGR-NB8 n'exprimant pas CXCR4, a augmenté la mobilité des cellules vers CXCL12 in vitro. De plus, les cellules surexprimant CXCR4 ont été moins affectées par la privation de sérum que les cellules contrôles. Le volume des tumeurs chez les animaux greffés de manière orthotopique avec les cellules NB8-CXCR4-C3 était significativement plus élevé que celui des tumeurs issues des cellules contrôles NB8-E6 au moment du sacrifice des animaux. Cependant, aucune induction des métastases n'a été observée. La lignée cellulaire IGR-N91, aux propriétés invasives et métastatiques in vivo, exprime constitutivement des quantités modérées de CXCR4. La surexpression du récepteur dans cette lignée a accéléré la croissance tumorale in vivo, mais n'a pas augmenté pas l'occurrence des métastases. Les cellules IGR-N91, dans lesquelles l'expression de CXCR4 a été éteinte, suite à l'introduction de shRNA stable contre CXCR4, a présenté une croissance cellulaire plus lente, in vitro et in vivo. Afin d'identifier les gènes et les voies de signalisation impliqués dans les effets dépendants de CXCR4-CXCL12 dans le NB, des analyses du profil d'expression des gènes ont été effectuées sur les lignées cellulaires transfectées ou non (contrôle). Trois clones contrôles ont été comparés à 3 clones surexprimant CXCR4 pour chacune des lignées (IGR-NB8 et IGR-N91). Les analyses biostatiques ont identifié 10 gènes induits, dont CXCR4, et 31 gènes réprimés, communs entre tous les clones surexprimant CXCR4. Ces observations démontrent que la surexpression de CXCR4 dans le NB stimule la croissance, la survie et la migration chémotactique des cellules tumorales, mais est insuffisante pour induire ou augmenter leurs capacités invasives et métastatiques. Les voies de signalisation activées suite à la surexpression de CXCR4 et identifiées à travers le profil global de l'expression des gènes pourraient être des cibles intéressantes pour le développement de drogues capables d'inhiber la croissance tumorale. Abstact: Neuroblastoma (NB) is a devastating childhood neoplasm for which there is not yet an efficient treatment. Chemokines and their receptors have been involved in tumour growth and metastasis, and in particular the CXCR4/CXCL12 axis has been reported to mediate organ-specific cancer cells homing and invasion. The purpose of the study was to investigate the role of ectopic CXCR4 in the malignant behaviour of NB by studying tumour cell growth, survival, migration, and invasion in vitro and by validating these results using a murine orthotopic model of NB tumour progression in vivo. CXCR4 overexpression in the low metastatic, CXCR4-negative IGR-NB8 cells resulted in CXCL12-mediated chemotaxis in vitro. Furthermore, CXCR4 overexpressing cells were less affected by serum deprivation than mock-transduced cells. In vivo studies revealed that, at sacrifice, volumes of tumours developing in mice with orthotopically implanted NB8-CXCR4-C3 cells, were significantly increased compared to NB8-E6 control tumours. However, no induction of metastases was observed. The in vivo invasive and metastatic cell line IGR-N91 cell line constitutively expresses moderate levels of CXCR4. Overexpression of CXCR4 enhanced in vivo tumour growth but did not increase the occurrence of metastases. IGR-N91 cells where CXCR4 has been knocked-down by stable shRNA grew slower in vitro and in vivo. To identify genes and pathways involved in the CXCR4/CXCL12-mediated effects in NB expression, profiles analyses (Affymetrix) were performed on transduced and control cell lines. Three mock-transduced clones were compared to three CXCR4 overexpressing clones of either cell line IGR-NB8 and IGR-N91. Biostatistical analysis identified 10 commonly upregulated genes (including CXCR4) and 31 downregulated genes common to all CXCR4 overexpressing clones. These observations demonstrate that overexpression of CXCR4 in NB stimulates tumour cell growth, survival, and chemotactic migration but is not sufficient to induce or enhance invasive and metastatic capacities. Activated pathways upon CXCR4 overexpression, identified through global gene expression profiling may be interesting targets for drugs inhibiting tumour growth.

Introducing massively parallel computers into operational weather forecasting

Numerical weather prediction and climate simulation have been among the computationally most demanding applications of high performance computing eversince they were started in the 1950's. Since the 1980's, the most powerful computers have featured an ever larger number of processors. By the early 2000's, this number is often several thousand. An operational weather model must use all these processors in a highly coordinated fashion. The critical resource in running such models is not computation, but the amount of necessary communication between the processors. The communication capacity of parallel computers often fallsfar short of their computational power. The articles in this thesis cover fourteen years of research into how to harness thousands of processors on a single weather forecast or climate simulation, so that the application can benefit as much as possible from the power of parallel high performance computers. The resultsattained in these articles have already been widely applied, so that currently most of the organizations that carry out global weather forecasting or climate simulation anywhere in the world use methods introduced in them. Some further studies extend parallelization opportunities into other parts of the weather forecasting environment, in particular to data assimilation of satellite observations.

Integrating defeasible argumentation with fuzzy ART neural networks for pattern classification

Many classification systems rely on clustering techniques in which a collection of training examples is provided as an input, and a number of clusters c1,...cm modelling some concept C results as an output, such that every cluster ci is labelled as positive or negative. Given a new, unlabelled instance enew, the above classification is used to determine to which particular cluster ci this new instance belongs. In such a setting clusters can overlap, and a new unlabelled instance can be assigned to more than one cluster with conflicting labels. In the literature, such a case is usually solved non-deterministically by making a random choice. This paper presents a novel, hybrid approach to solve this situation by combining a neural network for classification along with a defeasible argumentation framework which models preference criteria for performing clustering.

Modelling bird species richness with neural networks for forest landscape management in NE Spain

Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1 × 1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea.

Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 differently stimulate proliferation and neurogenesis of spinal neural precursors and promote neurite outgrowth by canonical signaling

Wnt factors regulate neural stem cell development and neuronal connectivity. Here we investigated whether Wnt-3a and Wnt-3, expressed in the developing spinal cord, regulate proliferation and the neuronal differentiation of spinal cord neural precursors (SCNP). Wnt-3a promoted a sustained increase of SCNP proliferation, whereas Wnt-3 enhanced SCNP proliferation transiently and increased neurogenesis through β-catenin signaling. Consistent with this, Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 differently regulate the expression of Cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors. Furthermore, Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 stimulated neurite outgrowth in SCNP-derived neurons through ß-catenin and TCF4-dependent transcription. GSK-3ß inhibitors mimicked Wnt signaling and promoted neurite outgrowth in established cultures. We conclude that Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 signal through the canonical Wnt/β-catenin pathway to regulate different aspects of SCNP development. These findings may be of therapeutic interest for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases and nerve injury.

Neural detection of complex sound sequences in the absence of consciousness.

The neural response to a violation of sequences of identical sounds is a typical example of the brain's sensitivity to auditory regularities. Previous literature interprets this effect as a pre-attentive and unconscious processing of sensory stimuli. By contrast, a violation to auditory global regularities, i.e. based on repeating groups of sounds, is typically detectable when subjects can consciously perceive them. Here, we challenge the notion that global detection implies consciousness by testing the neural response to global violations in a group of 24 patients with post-anoxic coma (three females, age range 45-87 years), treated with mild therapeutic hypothermia and sedation. By applying a decoding analysis to electroencephalographic responses to standard versus deviant sound sequences, we found above-chance decoding performance in 10 of 24 patients (Wilcoxon signed-rank test, P < 0.001), despite five of them being mildly hypothermic, sedated and unarousable. Furthermore, consistently with previous findings based on the mismatch negativity the progression of this decoding performance was informative of patients' chances of awakening (78% predictive of awakening). Our results show for the first time that detection of global regularities at neural level exists despite a deeply unconscious state.

Application of Neural Network Methods in the Prediction of Stock Markets

The purpose of the research is to define practical profit which can be achieved using neural network methods as a prediction instrument. The thesis investigates the ability of neural networks to forecast future events. This capability is checked on the example of price prediction during intraday trading on stock market. The executed experiments show predictions of average 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes’ prices based on data of one day and made by two different types of forecasting systems. These systems are based on the recurrent neural networks and back propagation neural nets. The precision of the predictions is controlled by the absolute error and the error of market direction. The economical effectiveness is estimated by a special trading system. In conclusion, the best structures of neural nets are tested with data of 31 days’ interval. The best results of the average percent of profit from one transaction (buying + selling) are 0.06668654, 0.188299453, 0.349854787 and 0.453178626, they were achieved for prediction periods 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes. The investigation can be interesting for the investors who have access to a fast information channel with a possibility of every-minute data refreshment.

HETEROTIC GROUP FORMATION IN PSIDIUM GUAJAVA L. BY ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT The present study aimed at evaluating the heterotic group formation in guava based on quantitative descriptors and using artificial neural network (ANN). For such, we evaluated eight quantitative descriptors. Large genetic variability was found for the eight quantitative traits in the 138 genotypes of guava. The artificial neural network technique determined that the optimal number of groups was three. The grouping consistency was determined by linear discriminant analysis, which obtained classification percentage of the groups, with a value of 86 %. It was concluded that the artificial neural network method is effective to detect genetic divergence and heterotic group formation.