Amostragem seqüencial de Alabama argillacea (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) em algodoeiro

Para implantar o manejo apropriado do curuquerê-do-algodoeiro, é necessário construir um plano de amostragem que permita estimar, de forma rápida e precisa, a densidade populacional da praga. Esta pesquisa objetivou determinar o plano de amostragem seqüencial de Alabama argillacea (Hübner) em algodoeiro, cultivar CNPA ITA-90. Os dados foram coletados no ano agrícola de 1998/99 na Fazenda Itamarati Sul S/A, localizada no município de Ponta Porã, MS, em três áreas de 10.000 m² cada. As áreas amostrais foram compostas de 100 parcelas de 100 m². O número de lagartas pequenas, médias e grandes foi determinado semanalmente em cinco plantas tomadas ao acaso por parcela. Após verificado que todos os instares das lagartas estavam distribuídos de acordo com o modelo de distribuição agregada, ajustando-se à Distribuição Binomial Negativa durante todo o período de infestação, construiu-se um plano de amostragem seqüencial de acordo com o Teste Seqüencial da Razão de Probabilidade (TSRP). Adotou-se o nível de controle de duas lagartas por planta para a construção do plano de amostragem. A análise dos dados indicou duas linhas de decisão: a superior, que representa a condição de que a adoção de um método de controle é recomendado, definida por S1= 4,8784+1,4227n; e a inferior representando que a adoção de algum método de controle não é necessário, definida por S0= -4,8784+1,4227n. A amostragem seqüencial estimou o número máximo esperado de 16 unidades amostrais para se definir a necessidade ou não do controle.

Estimation of genetic parameters for partial egg production periods by means of random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Prognostic significance of beta-2 adrenergic receptor in oral squamous cell carcinoma

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Sono e síndrome da fragilidade em idosos residentes em instituições de longa permanência

Introduction: The aging process causes quantitative and qualitative changes in sleeping. Such changes affects more than half of the adults above 65 years old, that live in the community and 70% of the institutionalized, a great negative impact in their quality of life. One of the pathological displays of aging, that share some characteristics with sleeping disorders and predict similar results, is the Frailty Syndrome, that characterize the most weakened and vulnerable elderly. The way sleeping disorders play a role in the frailty pathogeneses remains uncertain. Objective: Evaluate the relation between the sleeping and the frailty syndrome on institutionalized elderly. Methodology: A transversal study was performed with 69 elderly in institutions in the city of João Pessoa PB. Were used the Pittsburgh Sleeping Quality Index and actigraphy to subjective and objective variables, respectively, and questionnaires and specific tests to frailty phenotype variant (Fried Frailty Criteria). In the statistic analysis were used the Pearson correlation test, Chi Square and One-way ANOVA test, with Tukey-Krammer posttest. Subsequently, a Simple Linear Regression model was built. On every statistical analysis were considered a confidence interval of 95% and a p < 0,05. Results: The sample was characterized by the prevalence of the frail (49,3%), women (62,3%), single (50,7%) and 77,52 (±7,82).The frail elderly obtained the worst sleeping quality 10,37 (±4,31) (f = 4,15, p = 0,02), when compared with the non-frail. The sleep latency influenced more the frailty (R2 = 0,13, β standard = 1,76, β = 0,41, p = 0,001). Weren t found differences between the standard resting-activity variable and the frailty phenotype categories. Conclusion: Sleeping alterations, including bad sleeping quality, prolonged sleep latency, low sleep efficiency and day drowsiness, influenced the frailty in institutionalized elderly

Peritoneal Dialysis-Related Peritonitis Due to Staphylococcus aureus: A Single-Center Experience over 15 Years

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Predictive factors of outcome following staphylococcal peritonitis in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis

Background and aims: Staphylococcus epidermidis and other coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) are the most common agents of continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) peritonitis. Episodes caused by Staphylococcus aureus evolve with a high method failure rate while CoNS peritonitis is generally benign. The purpose of this study was to compare episodes of peritonitis caused by CoNS species and S. aureus to evaluate the microbiological and host factors that affect outcome. Material and methods: Microbiological and clinical data were retrospectively studied from 86 new episodes of peritonitis caused by staphylococci species between January 1996 and December 2000 in a university dialysis center. The influence of microbiological and host factors (age, sex, diabetes, use of vancomycin, exchange system and treatment time on CAPD) was analyzed by logistic regression model. The clinical outcome was classified into two results (resolution and non-resolution). Results: the odds of peritonitis resolution were not influenced by host factors. Oxacillin susceptibility was present in 30 of 35 S. aureus lineages and 22 of 51 CoNS (p = 0.001). There were 32 of 52 (61.5%) episodes caused by oxacillin-susceptible and 20 of 34 (58.8%) by oxacillin-resistant lineages resolved (p = 0.9713). of the 35 cases caused by S. aureus, 17 (48.6%) resolved and among 51 CoNS episodes 40 (78.4%) resolved. Resolution odds were 7.1 times higher for S. epidermidis than S. aureus (p = 0.0278), while other CoNS had 7.6 times higher odds resolution than S. epidermidis cases (p = 0.052). Episodes caused by S. haemolyticus had similar resolution odds to S. epidermidis (p = 0.859). Conclusions: S. aureus etiology is an independent factor associated with peritonitis non-resolution in CAPD, while S. epidermidis and S. haemolyticus have a lower resolution rate than other CoNS. Possibly the aggressive nature of these agents, particularly S. aureus, can be explained by their recognized pathogenic factors, more than antibiotic resistance.

Reajustando o limite de tolerância biológica aplicado à plumbemia no Brasil

Foram alocados aleatoriamente vinte trabalhadores expostos ocupacionalmente ao chumbo em uma indústria de acumuladores elétricos de médio porte, no interior do Estado de São Paulo, os quais apresentavam plumbemia e excreção urinária do ácido delta-aminolevulínico, nos últimos dois anos, sempre menores que 60 µg/dL e 10 mg/L, respectivamente. Os trabalhadores foram submetidos a eletroneurografia do nervo radial direito e a dosagem de plumbemia. Com estas medidas ajustou-se um modelo de regressão linear simples de primeira ordem, tendo como variável dependente a velocidade de condução e como variável independente a plumbemia. Analisando-se a regressão ajustada, infere-se que o valor preditivo negativo do limite de tolerância biológica brasileiro aplicado à plumbemia seja de apenas 0,63. O estudo sugere que o valor do referido limite de tolerância deva ser reduzido do atual valor de 60 µg/dL para 32 µg/dL, para ter um valor preditivo negativo de 0,99.

Buffalos milk yield analysis using random regression models

Data comprising 1,719 milk yield records from 357 females (predominantly Murrah breed), daughters of 110 sires, with births from 1974 to 2004, obtained from the Programa de Melhoramento Genetic de Bubalinos (PROMEBUL) and from records of EMBRAPA Amazonia Oriental - EAO herd, located in Belem, Para, Brazil, were used to compare random regression models for estimating variance components and predicting breeding values of the sires. The data were analyzed by different models using the Legendre's polynomial functions from second to fourth orders. The random regression models included the effects of herd-year, month of parity date of the control; regression coefficients for age of females (in order to describe the fixed part of the lactation curve) and random regression coefficients related to the direct genetic and permanent environment effects. The comparisons among the models were based on the Akaike Infromation Criterion. The random effects regression model using third order Legendre's polynomials with four classes of the environmental effect were the one that best described the additive genetic variation in milk yield. The heritability estimates varied from 0.08 to 0.40. The genetic correlation between milk yields in younger ages was close to the unit, but in older ages it was low.

A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH TO SUBSIDIZE THE PRECAUTIONARY MANAGEMENT of THE SMALL-SCALE FISHERIES IN ITAIPU RESERVOIR, BRAZIL

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Agricultural incentives, growth and poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean: cross-country evidence for the period 1960-2005. Did trade liberalization increase the incomes of the poorest?

Includes bibliography

Random regression models using Legendre polynomials or linear splines for test-day milk yield of dairy Gyr (Bos indicus) cattle

Studies investigating the use of random regression models for genetic evaluation of milk production in Zebu cattle are scarce. In this study, 59,744 test-day milk yield records from 7,810 first lactations of purebred dairy Gyr (Bos indicus) and crossbred (dairy Gyr × Holstein) cows were used to compare random regression models in which additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled using orthogonal Legendre polynomials or linear spline functions. Residual variances were modeled considering 1, 5, or 10 classes of days in milk. Five classes fitted the changes in residual variances over the lactation adequately and were used for model comparison. The model that fitted linear spline functions with 6 knots provided the lowest sum of residual variances across lactation. On the other hand, according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), a model using third-order and fourth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, provided the best fit. However, the high rank correlation (0.998) between this model and that applying third-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects, indicates that, in practice, the same bulls would be selected by both models. The last model, which is less parameterized, is a parsimonious option for fitting dairy Gyr breed test-day milk yield records. © 2013 American Dairy Science Association.

Multivariate models for correlated count data

In this study, we deal with the problem of overdispersion beyond extra zeros for a collection of counts that can be correlated. Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial distributions have been considered. First, we propose a multivariate count model in which all counts follow the same distribution and are correlated. Then we extend this model in a sense that correlated counts may follow different distributions. To accommodate correlation among counts, we have considered correlated random effects for each individual in the mean structure, thus inducing dependency among common observations to an individual. The method is applied to real data to investigate variation in food resources use in a species of marsupial in a locality of the Brazilian Cerrado biome. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Genetic evaluation using multi-trait and random regression models in Simmental beef cattle

The Brazilian Association of Simmental and Simbrasil Cattle Farmers provided 29,510 records from 10,659 Simmental beef cattle; these were used to estimate (co)variance components and genetic parameters for weights in the growth trajectory, based on multi-trait (MTM) and random regression models (RRM). The (co)variance components and genetic parameters were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood. In the MTM analysis, the likelihood ratio test was used to determine the significance of random effects included in the model and to define the most appropriate model. All random effects were significant and included in the final model. In the RRM analysis, different adjustments of polynomial orders were compared for 5 different criteria to choose the best fit model. An RRM of third order for the direct additive genetic, direct permanent environmental, maternal additive genetic, and maternal permanent environment effects was sufficient to model variance structures in the growth trajectory of the animals. The (co)variance components were generally similar in MTM and RRM. Direct heritabilities of MTM were slightly lower than RRM and varied from 0.04 to 0.42 and 0.16 to 0.45, respectively. Additive direct correlations were mostly positive and of high magnitude, being highest at closest ages. Considering the results and that pre-adjustment of the weights to standard ages is not required, RRM is recommended for genetic evaluation of Simmental beef cattle in Brazil. ©FUNPEC-RP.

Impacto das condições climáticas sobre a etiologia das bacteremias nosocomiais no Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu-UNESP

Pós-graduação em Doenças Tropicais - FMB