Banking Sector Soundness, Innovation, and Development: Emerging Europe and South Asia. ACES Working Papers, 2012

While most academic and practitioner researchers agree that a country’s commercial banking sector’s soundness is a very significant indicator of a country’s financial market health, there is considerably less agreement and substantial confusion surrounding what constitutes a healthy bank in the aftermath of 2007+ financial crisis. Global banks’ balance sheets, corporate governance, management compensation and bonuses, toxic assets, and risky behavior are all under scrutiny as academics and regulators alike are trying to quantify what are “healthy, safe and good practices” for these various elements of banking. The current need to quantify, measure, evaluate, and compare is driven by the desire to spot troubled banks, “bad and risky” behavior, and prevent real damage and contagion in the financial markets, investors, and tax payers as it did in the recent crisis. Moreover, future financial crisis has taken on a new urgency as vast amounts of capital flows (over $1 trillion) are being redirected to emerging markets. This study differs from existing methods in the literature as it entail designing, constructing, and validating a critical dimension of financial innovation in respect to the eight developing countries in the South Asia region as well as eight countries in emerging Europe at the country level for the period 2001 – 2008, with regional and systemic differentials taken into account. Preliminary findings reveal that higher stages of payment systems development have generated efficiency gains by reducing the settlement risk and improving financial intermediation; such efficiency gains are viewed as positive financial innovations and positively impact the banking soundness. Potential EU candidate countries: Albania; Montenegro; Serbia

It’s not just Russia: Currency crisis in the Commonwealth of independent states. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2015/01, February 2015

The currency crisis that started in Russia and Ukraine during 2014 has spread to neighbouring countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The collapse of the Russian ruble, expected recession in Russia, the stronger US dollar and lower commodity prices have negatively affected the entire region, with the consequence that the European Union's entire eastern neighbourhood faces serious economic, social and political challenges because of weaker currencies, higher inflation, decreasing export revenues and labour remittances, net capital outflows and stagnating or declining GDP. •The crisis requires a proper policy response from CIS governments, the International Monetary Fund and the EU. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbass requires rapid resolution, as the first step to return Russia to the mainstream of global economic and political cooperation. Beyond that, both Russia and Ukraine need deep structural and institutional reforms. The EU should deepen economic ties with those CIS countries that are interested in a closer relationship with Europe. The IMF should provide additional assistance to those CIS countries that have become victims of a new regional contagion, while preparing for the possibility of more emerging-market crises arising from slower growth, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices.

The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area. Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35/2015

This paper estimates the immediate impact of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programmes on sovereign bond spreads in the euro area between 2008 and 2015 using a country-by-country GARCH model. The baseline estimates are rigorously diagnosed for misspecification and subjected to a wide range of sensitivity tests. Among others, changes in the dependent variable, the independent variables and the number of (G)ARCH terms are tested. Moreover, the model is applied to subsamples and dynamic conditional correlations are analyzed to estimate the effects of the asset purchases on the contagion of spread movements. Generally, it is found that the asset purchase programmes triggered an reduction of sovereign bond spreads. More specifically, the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) had the most significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads across the euro area. The announcements related to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme also yielded substantial spread compression in the periphery. In contrast to that, the most recent Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) announced in January 2015 and implemented since March 2015 had no significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads, except for Irish spreads. Hence, immediate effects seem to be dependent upon the size of the programme, the extent to which it targets distressed sovereigns and the way in which it is communicated.

Contágio emocional de ansiedade encarregado de educação/criança em odontopediatria

Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma Licença Creative Commons Atribuição-Não Comercial-Sem Derivações 4.0 Internacional. Para ver uma cópia desta licença, visite http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. A licença permite compartilhar — copiar e redistribuir o material em qualquer suporte ou formato, desde que seja atribuído o crédito aos autores, fornecido um link para a licença e indicado se foram efectuadas alterações ao original. Não é permitido o uso do material para fins comerciais. Não é permitida a distribuição de material resultante da transformação do original. (Este resumo não dispensa a consulta da licença).

Dynamic D-Vine copula model with applications to Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Regular vine copulas are multivariate dependence models constructed from pair-copulas (bivariate copulas). In this paper, we allow the dependence parameters of the pair-copulas in a D-vine decomposition to be potentially time-varying, following a nonlinear restricted ARMA(1,m) process, in order to obtain a very flexible dependence model for applications to multivariate financial return data. We investigate the dependence among the broad stock market indexes from Germany (DAX), France (CAC 40), Britain (FTSE 100), the United States (S&P 500) and Brazil (IBOVESPA) both in a crisis and in a non-crisis period. We find evidence of stronger dependence among the indexes in bear markets. Surprisingly, though, the dynamic D-vine copula indicates the occurrence of a sharp decrease in dependence between the indexes FTSE and CAC in the beginning of 2011, and also between CAC and DAX during mid-2011 and in the beginning of 2008, suggesting the absence of contagion in these cases. We also evaluate the dynamic D-vine copula with respect to Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting accuracy in crisis periods. The dynamic D-vine outperforms the static D-vine in terms of predictive accuracy for our real data sets.

Les caractères musicaux au sein d'une démarche artistique dramatique : exploration des indices acoustiques jouant un rôle dans l'évocation des états affectifs en musique.

Cette thèse de doctorat en composition comprend deux projets de nature différente et complémentaire : (1) un projet de recherche théorique sur la communication des caractères musicaux; (2) un projet artistique s'articulant autour de la composition de trois pièces : L'homme à deux têtes - opéra de chambre, Un instant dans l'esprit de Lovecraft - pour clarinette solo, orchestre à cordes et percussions, et Balade ornithologique - pour orchestre à vents. La conception de la musique comme un moyen de communication est à l'origine de cette recherche théorique qui est motivée par un désir de compréhension des stratégies d'expressions des émotions en musique, à partir du point de vue du compositeur. Cette thèse aborde les modèles de communication, le concept de personnage virtuel et la théorie de la contagion des humeurs. Par la suite, nous détaillerons les indices acoustiques menant à la perception des caractères musicaux. Toutes ces notions sont illustrées et explorées par la composition de miniature ayant un caractère bien ciblé. Finalement, nous proposons un système d'analyse musical des caractères et des émotions qui est appliqué à l'analyse de sections des pièces composées au cours de ce projet de doctorat. Ce dernier chapitre met en lumière les stratégies utilisées pour créer un discours dramatique tout en exposant l'évocation de différents caractères musicaux.

Les coalitions politiques et l'orientation du changement économique et politique aux États-Unis : la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession comparées.

Ce mémoire s’intéresse au concept de crise, économique et politique, comme source de changement idéologique et politique. Au travers de l’étude de l’austérité économique, il sera possible d’identifier des différences majeures entre deux épisodes de troubles économiques importants, la Grande Dépression et la Grande Récession. Alors que la Grande Dépression est caractérisée par une double crise, économique et politique, la Grande Récession, elle, demeure un choc essentiellement économique. L’absence de contagion dans le système politique explique la ténacité d’une idée comme l’austérité, de retour depuis la révolution néolibérale des années 80. L’austérité économique s’est adaptée et s’aligne maintenant aux intérêts d’une frange importante de la coalition démocrate. La persistance de l’allure des coalitions politiques depuis le dernier grand réalignement témoigne de l’absence de transformation majeure du mode d’action étatique, ce qui constitue une différence importante entre les deux crises.

Rules and regulations of the Board of live stock commissioners of the state of Illinois, with extracts from the law in relation in live stock sanitation, cruelty to animals, meat inspection and other matters relating to live stock interests, 1908 ...

Mode of access: Internet.

Athanasii Kircheri e Soc. Iesu Scrutinium physico-medicum contagiosæ luis, quæ pestis dicitur : quo origo, causæ, signa, prognostica pestis, nec non insolentes malignantis naturæ effectus, qui statis temporibus, cælestium influxuum virtute & efficacia, tum in elementis, tum in epidemijs hominum animantiumque morbis elucescunt, vnà cum appropriatis remediorum antidotis nouâ doctrinâ in lucem eruuntur.

"Errores": p. [15] (3rd group).

Expanding the scope of the social response context model

Descriptive models of social response are concerned with identifying and discriminating between different types of response to social influence. In a previous article (Nail, MacDonald, & Levy, 2000), the authors demonstrated that 4 conceptual dimensions are necessary to adequately distinguish between such phenomena as conformity, compliance, contagion, independence, and anticonformity in a single model. This article expands the scope of the authors' 4-dimensional approach by reviewing selected experimental and cultural evidence, further demonstrating the integrative power of the model. This review incorporates political psychology, culture and aggression, self-persuasion, group norms, prejudice, impression management, psychotherapy, pluralistic ignorance, bystander intervention/nonintervention, public policy, close relationships, and implicit attitudes.

Media guidelines on the reporting of suicide

There is strong evidence for the existence of the Werther effect, or the phenomenon of an observer copying suicidal behavior he or she has seen modelled in the media. As a consequence, a number of countries have developed guidelines that promote responsible reporting of suicide. Using nine such guidelines as examples, this paper demonstrates that they tend to have similar content (emphasizing, for example, that suicide should not be,glamorized or sensationalized and that explicit descriptions should be avoided, and stressing the importance of providing information about help services), but differ in the way in which they have been developed (e.g., the extent to which media professionals have been involved) and implemented (e.g., whether their roll-out has involved a considered dissemination strategy). The paper also reviews the evidence from evaluations of media guidelines, and concludes that it is too limited to determine whether the guidelines have had an impact on the behavior of media professionals or on completed and attempted suicide rates. It makes recommendations for further evaluative work, and suggests that the lessons from well-designed evaluations should be shared.

An empirical investigation of the UK stock market response to the implementation of SSAP 20

This study presents an empirical investigation of the UK stock market response to the im-plementation of the UK Statement of Standard Accounting Practice (SSAP) No. 20 “Foreign Cur-rency Translation” (issued in April 1983). Such an empirical investigation has not yet been under-taken for the UK. Our results show that the stock market generally appeared to have anticipatedthe implementation of SSAP 20. For the aggregate set of adopters, we found a positive stock mar-ket response in the official year of adoption, reflecting the appreciation of the income-stabilisingeffects of the standard. This paper also presents a cross-sectional analysis that tests for a relation-ship between the stock returns and the accounting measures of those firms that adopted SSAP 20.We found a significant relation between the stock returns and the related accounting measures inthe actual adoption period of the aggregate set of adopters. This study generally focuses on theinterpretation of the financial impacts of the various accounting choices of firms within their fi-nancial and economic environments.

The impact of drug information on the prescribing of drugs

Using prescription analyses and questionnaires, the way drug information was used by general medical practitioners during the drug adoption process was studied. Three new drugs were considered; an innovation and two 'me-too' products. The innovation was accepted by general practitioners via a contagion process, information passing among doctors. The 'me-too' preparations were accepted more slowly and by a process which did not include the contagion effect. 'Industrial' information such as direct mail was used more at the 'awareness' stage of the adoption process while 'professional' sources of information such as articles in medical journals were used more to evaluate a new product. It was shown that 'industrial' information was preferred by older single practice doctors who did not specialise, had a first degree only and who did not dispense their own prescriptions. Doctors were divided into early and late-prescribers by using the date they first prescribed the innovatory drug. Their approach to drug information sources was further studied and it was shown that the early-prescriber issued slightly more prescriptions per month, had a larger list size, read fewer journals and generally rated industrial sources of information more highly than late-prescribers. The prescribing habits of three consultant rheumatologists were analysed and compared with those of the general practitioners in the community which they served. Very little association was noted and the influence of the consultant on the prescribing habits of general practitioners was concluded to be low. The consultants influence was suggested to be of two components, active and passive; the active component being the most influential. Journal advertising and advertisement placement were studied for one of the 'me-too' drugs. It was concluded that advertisement placement should be based on the reading patterns of general practitioners and not on ad-hoc data gathered by representatives as was the present practice. A model was proposed relating the 'time to prescribe' a new drug to the variables suggested throughout this work. Four of these variables were shown to be significant. These were, the list size, the medical age of the prescriber, the number of new preparations prescribed in a given time and the number of partners in the practice.

A flexible cost function model with risk

In examining bank cost efficiency in banking inclusion of risk-taking of banks is very important. In this paper we depart from the standard modeling approach and view risk intimately related to the technology. Thus, instead of controlling for risk by viewing them as covariates in the standard cost function we argue that the technology differs with risk, thereby meaning that the parameters of the parametric cost function changes with risk in a fully flexible manner. This is accomplished by viewing the parameters of the cost function as nonparametric functions of risk. We also control for country-specific effects in a fully flexible manner by using them as arguments of the nonparametric functions along with the risk variable. The resulting cost function then becomes semiparametric. The standard parametric model becomes a special case of our semiparametric model. We use the above modeling approach for banks in the EU countries. Actually, European financial integration is seen as a stepping stone for the development of a competitive single EU market that promotes efficiency and increases consumer welfare, changing the risk profile of the European banks. Particularly, financial integration allows more risk diversification and permits banks to use more advanced risk management instruments and systems, however it has at the same time increased the probability of systematic risks. Financial integration has increased the risk of contagion and changed its nature and scope. Consequently the bank’s risk seems to be an important issue to be investigated.

Network effects, network structure and consumer interaction in mobile telecommunications in Europe and Asia

This paper estimates the importance of (tariff-mediated) network effects and the impact of a consumer's social network on her choice of mobile phone provider. The study uses network data obtained from surveys of students in several European and Asian countries. We use the Quadratic Assignment Procedure, a non-parametric permutation test, to adjust for the particular error structure of network data. We find that respondents strongly coordinate their choice of mobile phone providers, but only if their provider induces network effects. This suggests that this coordination depends on network effects rather than on information contagion or pressure to conform to the social environment.