888 resultados para Multiple scales methods


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In this paper the scales of classes of stochastic processes are introduced. New interpolation theorems and boundedness of some transforms of stochastic processes are proved. Interpolation method for generously-monotonous rocesses is entered. Conditions and statements of interpolation theorems concern he xed stochastic process, which diers from the classical results.

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BACKGROUND: Prediction of clinical course and outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is important. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether clinical scales (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS], Injury Severity Score [ISS], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II]) or radiographic scales based on admission computed tomography (Marshall and Rotterdam) were associated with intensive care unit (ICU) physiology (intracranial pressure [ICP], brain tissue oxygen tension [PbtO2]), and clinical outcome after severe TBI. METHODS: One hundred one patients (median age, 41.0 years; interquartile range [26-55]) with severe TBI who had ICP and PbtO2 monitoring were identified. The relationship between admission GCS, ISS, APACHE II, Marshall and Rotterdam scores and ICP, PbtO2, and outcome was examined by using mixed-effects models and logistic regression. RESULTS: Median (25%-75% interquartile range) admission GCS and APACHE II without GCS scores were 3.0 (3-7) and 11.0 (8-13), respectively. Marshall and Rotterdam scores were 3.0 (3-5) and 4.0 (4-5). Mean ICP and PbtO2 during the patients' ICU course were 15.5 ± 10.7 mm Hg and 29.9 ± 10.8 mm Hg, respectively. Three-month mortality was 37.6%. Admission GCS was not associated with mortality. APACHE II (P = .003), APACHE-non-GCS (P = .004), Marshall (P < .001), and Rotterdam scores (P < .001) were associated with mortality. No relationship between GCS, ISS, Marshall, or Rotterdam scores and subsequent ICP or PbtO2 was observed. The APACHE II score was inversely associated with median PbtO2 (P = .03) and minimum PbtO2 (P = .008) and had a stronger correlation with amount of time of reduced PbtO2. CONCLUSION: Following severe TBI, factors associated with outcome may not always predict a patient's ICU course and, in particular, intracranial physiology.

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Background and purpose: Decision making (DM) has been defined as the process through which a person forms preferences, selects and executes actions, and evaluates the outcome related to a selected choice. This ability represents an important factor for adequate behaviour in everyday life. DM impairment in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been previously reported. The purpose of the present study was to assess DM in patients with MS at the earliest clinically detectable time point of the disease. Methods: Patients with definite (n=109) or possible (clinically isolated syndrome, CIS; n=56) MS, a short disease duration (mean 2.3 years) and a minor neurological disability (mean EDSS 1.8) were compared to 50 healthy controls aged 18 to 60 years (mean age 32.2) using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Subjects had to select a card from any of 4 decks (A/B [disadvantageous]; C/D [advantageous]). The game consisted of 100 trials then grouped in blocks of 20 cards for data analysis. Skill in DM was assessed by means of a learning index (LI) defined as the difference between the averaged last three block indexes and first two block indexes (LI=[(BI-3+BI-4+BI-5)/3-(BI-1+B2)/2]). Non parametric tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: LI was higher in the control group (0.24, SD 0.44) than in the MS group (0.21, SD 0.38), however without reaching statistical significance (p=0.7). Interesting differences were detected when MS patients were grouped according to phenotype. A trend to a difference between MS subgroups and controls was observed for LI (p=0.06), which became significant between MS subgroups (p=0.03). CIS patients who confirmed MS diagnosis by presenting a second relapse after study entry showed a dysfunction in the IGT in comparison to the other CIS (p=0.01) and definite MS (p=0.04) patients. In the opposite, CIS patients characterised by not entirely fulfilled McDonald criteria at inclusion and absence of relapse during the study showed an normal learning pattern on the IGT. Finally, comparing MS patients who developed relapses after study entry, those who remained clinically stable and controls, we observed impaired performances only in relapsing patients in comparison to stable patients (p=0.008) and controls (p=0.03). Discussion: These results raise the assumption of a sustained role for both MS relapsing activity and disease heterogeneity (i.e. infra-clinical severity or activity of MS) in the impaired process of decision making.

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The presence of acid fast bacilli in multiple specimens was investigated comparatively with Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) and fluorescence microscopy (FM) staining in order to determine sensitivity in detecting tuberculosis (TB). A total of 465 specimens obtained from 295 patients were analysed at Harran University Medical School Hospital between March 1998 and March 2000. The culture was employed as the reference method. Sixty-eight patients (23.1%) were diagnosed as having TB by culture. The ZN and FM staining sensitivities were 67.6% (46/68) and 85.2% (58/68) respectively. Two hundred and one patients (68.1%) submitted one specimen to the laboratory. TB positivity was detected in 42 (20.9%) of these patients by culture. The sensitivities of ZN and FM stains were found to be 61% and 83% in these patients. However, in 18 patients (6.1%) who submitted two specimens to the laboratory, the TB was positive in six of them (33.3%) and ZN and FM sensitivities were 66% and 83% respectively. When three specimens or more were collected from the patients (76 patients, 25.8%), TB positivity was determined in 20 of them (26.3%) and the sensitivities were 80% and 92% in the ZN- and FM-stained smears, respectively. Our data indicate that in the diagnosis of TB, FM has greater sensitivity than ZN. In particular, in the case of a single specimen, the diagnostic value of FM is quite significant. It is, therefore, possible to conclude that both ZN and FM staining can be used for the diagnosis of TB when there are more than two specimens. However, if only one or two specimens are available, FM staining is preferable.

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BACKGROUND: To estimate the prevalence of undernutrition among children with profound intellectual and multiple disabilities (PIMD) and to explore its influence on quality of life. METHODS: Seventy-two children with PIMD (47 male; 25 female; age range 2 to 15 years 4 months; mean age 8.6, SD 3.6) underwent an anthropometric assessment, including body weight, triceps skinfold thickness, segmental measures and recumbent length. Undernutrition was determined using tricipital skinfold percentile and z-scores of weight-for-height and height-for-age. The quality of life of each child was evaluated using the QUALIN questionnaire adapted for profoundly disabled children. RESULTS: Twenty-five children (34.7%) were undernourished and seven (9.7%) were obese. Among undernourished children only eight (32 %) were receiving food supplements and two (8%) had a gastrostomy, of which one was still on a refeeding programme. On multivariate analysis, undernutrition was one of the independent predictors of lower quality of life. CONCLUSION: Undernutrition remains a matter of concern in children with PIMD. There is a need to better train professionals in systematically assessing the nutritional status of profoundly disabled children in order to start nutritional management when necessary.

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An hemodialysis population in Central Brazil was screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serological methods to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate associated risk factors. All hemodialysis patients (n=428) were interviewed in eight dialysis units in Goiânia city. Blood samples were collected and serum samples screened for anti-HCV antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive samples were retested for confirmation with a line immunoassay (LIA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by the PCR. An overall prevalence of 46.7% (CI 95%: 42-51.5) was found, ranging from 20.7% (CI 95%: 8.8-38.1) to 90.4% (CI 95%: 79.9-96.4) depending on the dialysis unit. Of the 428 patients, 185 were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 167 were confirmed positive by LIA, resulting in an anti-HCV prevalence of 39%. A total of 131 patients were HCV RNA-positive. HCV viremia was present in 63.5% of the anti-HCV-positive patients and in 10.3% of the anti-HCV-negative patients. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that the number of previous blood transfusions, transfusion of blood before mandatory screening for anti-HCV, length of time on hemodialysis, and treatment in multiple units were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusion before screening for anti-HCV and length of time on hemodialysis were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. These data suggest that nosocomial transmission may play a role in the spread of HCV in the dialysis units studied. In addition to anti-HCV screening, HCV RNA detection is necessary for the diagnosis of HCV infection in hemodialysis patients.

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Oscillations have been increasingly recognized as a core property of neural responses that contribute to spontaneous, induced, and evoked activities within and between individual neurons and neural ensembles. They are considered as a prominent mechanism for information processing within and communication between brain areas. More recently, it has been proposed that interactions between periodic components at different frequencies, known as cross-frequency couplings, may support the integration of neuronal oscillations at different temporal and spatial scales. The present study details methods based on an adaptive frequency tracking approach that improve the quantification and statistical analysis of oscillatory components and cross-frequency couplings. This approach allows for time-varying instantaneous frequency, which is particularly important when measuring phase interactions between components. We compared this adaptive approach to traditional band-pass filters in their measurement of phase-amplitude and phase-phase cross-frequency couplings. Evaluations were performed with synthetic signals and EEG data recorded from healthy humans performing an illusory contour discrimination task. First, the synthetic signals in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations highlighted two desirable features of the proposed algorithm vs. classical filter-bank approaches: resilience to broad-band noise and oscillatory interference. Second, the analyses with real EEG signals revealed statistically more robust effects (i.e. improved sensitivity) when using an adaptive frequency tracking framework, particularly when identifying phase-amplitude couplings. This was further confirmed after generating surrogate signals from the real EEG data. Adaptive frequency tracking appears to improve the measurements of cross-frequency couplings through precise extraction of neuronal oscillations.

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Introduction: Cognitive impairment affects 40-65% of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, often since early stages of the disease (relapsing remitting MS, RRMS). Frequently affected functions are memory, attention or executive abilities but the most sensitive measure of cognitive deficits in early MS is the information processing speed (Amato, 2008). MRI has been extensively exploited to investigate the substrate of cognitive dysfunction in MS but the underlying physiopathological mechanisms remain unclear. White matter lesion load, whole-brain atrophy and cortical lesions' number play a role but correlations are in some cases modest (Rovaris, 2006; Calabrese, 2009). In this study, we aimed at characterizing and correlating the T1 relaxation times of cortical and sub-cortical lesions with cognitive deficits detected by neuropsychological tests in a group of very early RR MS patients. Methods: Ten female patients with very early RRMS (age: 31.6 ±4.7y; disease duration: 3.8 ±1.9y; EDSS disability score: 1.8 ±0.4) and 10 age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers (mean age: 31.2 ±5.8y) were included in the study. All participants underwent the following neuropsychological tests: Rao's Brief Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological tests (BRB-N), Stockings of Cambridge, Trail Making Test (TMT, part A and B), Boston Naming Test, Hooper Visual Organization Test and copy of the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure. Within 2 weeks from neuropsychological assessment, participants underwent brain MRI at 3T (Magnetom Trio a Tim System, Siemens, Germany) using a 32-channel head coil. The imaging protocol included 3D sequences with 1x1x1.2 mm3 resolution and 256x256x160 matrix, except for axial 2D-FLAIR: -DIR (T2-weighted, suppressing both WM and CSF; Pouwels, 2006) -MPRAGE (T1-weighted; Mugler, 1991) -MP2RAGE (T1-weighted with T1 maps; Marques, 2010) -FLAIR SPACE (only for patient 4-10, T2-weighted; Mugler, 2001) -2D Axial FLAIR (0.9x0.9x2.5 mm3, 256x256x44 matrix). Lesions were identified by one experienced neurologist and radiologist using all contrasts, manually contoured and assigned to regional locations (cortical or sub-cortical). Lesion number, volume and T1 relaxation time were calculated for lesions in each contrast and in a merged mask representing the union of the lesions from all contrasts. T1 relaxation times of lesions were normalized with the mean T1 value in corresponding control regions of the healthy subjects. Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad InStat software. Cognitive scores were compared between patients and controls with paired t-tests; p values ≤ 0.05 were considered significant. Spearmann correlation tests were performed between the cognitive tests, which differed significantly between patients and controls, and lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) T1 relaxation time iv) disease duration and v) years of study. Results: Cortical and sub-cortical lesions count, T1 values and volume are reported in Table 1 (A and B). All early RRMS patients showed cortical lesions (CLs) and the majority consisted of CLs type I (lesions with a cortical component extending to the sub-cortical tissue). The rest of cortical lesions were characterized as type II (intra-cortical lesions). No type III/IV lesions (large sub-pial lesions) were detected. RRMS patients were slightly less educated (13.5±2.5y vs. 16.3±1.8y of study, p=0.02) than the controls. Signs of cortical dysfunction (i.e. impaired learning, language, visuo-spatial skills or gnosis) were rare in all patients. However, patients showed on average lower scores on measures of visual attention and information processing speed (TMT-part A: p=0.01; TMT-part B: p=0.006; PASAT-included in the BRB-N: p=0.04). The T1 relaxation values of CLs type I negatively correlated with the TMT-part A score (r=0.78, p<0.01). The correlations of TMT-part B score and PASAT score with T1 relaxation time of lesions as well and the correlation between TMT-part A, TMT-part B and PASAT score with lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) disease duration and iv) years of study did not reach significance. In order to preclude possible influences from partial volume effects on the T1 values, the correlation between lesion volume and T1 value of CLs type I was calculated; no correlation was found, suggesting that partial volume effects did not affect the statistics. Conclusions: The present pilot study reports for the first time the presence and the T1 characteristics at 3 T of cortical lesions in very early RRMS (< 6 y disease duration). It also shows that CLS type I represents the most frequent cortical lesion type in this cohort of RRMS patients. In addition, it reveals a negative correlation between the attentional test TMT-part A and the T1 properties of cortical lesions type I. In other words, lower attention deficits are concomitant with longer T1-relaxation time in cortical lesions. In respect to this last finding, it could be speculated that long relaxation time correspond to a certain degree of tissue loss that is enough to stimulate compensatory mechanisms. This hypothesis is in line with previous fMRI studies showing functional compensatory mechanisms to help maintaining normal or sub-normal attention performances in RR MS patients (Penner, 2003).

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Introduction Lesion detection in multiple sclerosis (MS) is an essential part of its clinical diagnosis. In addition, radiological characterisation of MS lesions is an important research field that aims at distinguishing different MS types, monitoring drug response and prognosis. To date, various MR protocols have been proposed to obtain optimal lesion contrast for early and comprehensive diagnosis of the MS disease. In this study, we compare the sensitivity of five different MR contrasts for lesion detection: (i) the DIR sequence (Double Inversion Recovery, [4]), (ii) the Dark-fluid SPACE acquisition schemes, a 3D variant of a 2D FLAIR sequence [1], (iii) the MP2RAGE [2], an MP-RAGE variant that provides homogeneous T1 contrast and quantitative T1-values, and the sequences currently used for clinical MS diagnosis (2D FLAIR, MP-RAGE). Furthermore, we investigate the T1 relaxation times of cortical and sub-cortical regions in the brain hemispheres and the cerebellum at 3T. Methods 10 early-stage female MS patients (age: 31.64.7y; disease duration: 3.81.9y; disability score, EDSS: 1.80.4) and 10 healthy controls (age and gender-matched: 31.25.8y) were included in the study after obtaining informed written consent according to the local ethic protocol. All experiments were performed at 3T (Magnetom Trio a Tim System, Siemens, Germany) using a 32-channel head coil [5]. The imaging protocol included the following sequences, (all except for axial FLAIR 2D with 1x1x1.2 mm3 voxel and 256x256x160 matrix): DIR (TI1/TI2/TR XX/3652/10000 ms, iPAT=2, TA 12:02 min), MP-RAGE (TI/TR 900/2300 ms, iPAT=3, TA 3:47 min); MP2RAGE (TI1/TI2/TR 700/2500/5000 ms, iPAT=3, TA 8:22 min, cf. [2]); 3D FLAIR SPACE (only for patient 4-6, TI/TR 1800/5000 ms, iPAT=2, TA=5;52 min, cf. [1]); Axial FLAIR (0.9x0.9x2.5 mm3, 256x256x44 matrix, TI/TR 2500/9000 ms, iPAT=2, TA 4:05 min). Lesions were identified by two experienced neurologist and radiologist, manually contoured and assigned to regional locations (s. table 1). Regional lesion masks (RLM) from each contrast were compared for number and volumes of lesions. In addition, RLM were merged in a single "master" mask, which represented the sum of the lesions of all contrasts. T1 values were derived for each location from this mask for patients 5-10 (3D FLAIR contrast was missing for patient 1-4). Results & Discussion The DIR sequence appears the most sensitive for total lesions count, followed by the MP2RAGE (table 1). The 3D FLAIR SPACE sequence turns out to be more sensitive than the 2D FLAIR, presumably due to reduced partial volume effects. Looking for sub-cortical hemispheric lesions, the DIR contrast appears to be equally sensitive to the MP2RAGE and SPACE, but most sensitive for cerebellar MS plaques. The DIR sequence is also the one that reveals cortical hemispheric lesions best. T1 relaxation times at 3T in the WM and GM of the hemispheres and the cerebellum, as obtained with the MP2RAGE sequence, are shown in table 2. Extending previous studies, we confirm overall longer T1-values in lesion tissue and higher standard deviations compared to the non-lesion tissue and control tissue in healthy controls. We hypothesize a biological (different degree of axonal loss and demyelination) rather than technical origin. Conclusion In this study, we applied 5 MR contrasts including two novel sequences to investigate the contrast of highest sensitivity for early MS diagnosis. In addition, we characterized for the first time the T1 relaxation time in cortical and sub-cortical regions of the hemispheres and the cerebellum. Results are in agreement with previous publications and meaningful biological interpretation of the data.

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BACKGROUND: Multiple nodules of the scrotum are uncommonly reported. Their origin is controversial. Treatment is always surgical but the best procedure is still to be determined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five new cases are reported with description of the histopathological findings and surgical procedure. RESULTS: Nodules of the scrotum were more frequent in patients with dark skin suggesting an ethnic susceptibility. No other predisposing factors were noted. Screening for disturbances of phosphate or calcium balance was negative. The following histopathological findings were observed: non-calcified epidermoid cysts (3 patients), calcified epidermoid cysts (1 patient) and nodular calcifications without epithelial or glandular structures (1 patient). Subtotal excisions of the scrotum wall using tumescent anaesthesia were performed in all patients without any significant complications. Cosmetic results were excellent. No new lesions were observed during the 1-year follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Most cases of multiple nodules of the scrotum are due to non-calcified epidermoid cysts. The term scrotal calcinosis is therefore probably abusively used by many authors. Some cases of nodular calcifications may be due to dystrophic calcification of epidermoid cysts, but calcifications may also occur without any visible epithelial or glandular structure. Subtotal excision of the scrotum wall is a safe and effective surgical procedure to treat multiple nodules of the scrotum. Cosmetic results are excellent and recurrences are rare.

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Taenia solium-taeniasis and cysticercosis were studied in the human and porcine populations of a rural community in the Southern Ecuadorian Andes. From the 1059 inhabitants, 800 serum samples and 958 stool samples could be collected. In addition, 646 from the estimated 1148 pigs were tongue inspected. Circulating antigen was detected by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (Ag-ELISA) in 2.25% of the human population, whereas intestinal taeniasis was detected in 1.46% by the formalin-ether technique. Following treatment and recovery of tapeworm fragments these were all identified as T. solium. Porcine cysticercosis was diagnosed in 3.56% of the pigs by tongue inspection. In addition, enzyme linked immunoelectrotransfer blot (EITB) was performed on a subset group of 100 humans to confirm the results of the Ag-ELISA. One hundred serum samples from pigs were also analysed by EITB. It appeared that 43 and 74% of humans and pigs had antibodies against T. solium cysticerci, respectively. It is concluded that contrary to the high exposure of the human population to T. solium that is suggested by EITB, the number of active cysticercosis cases, diagnosed by Ag-ELISA, was low, which may indicate endemic stability. The further use of complementary diagnostic methods for a better understanding of the epidemiology of T. solium is suggested.

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BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to assess decision making in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) at the earliest clinically detectable time point of the disease. METHODS: Patients with definite MS (n = 109) or with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS, n = 56), a disease duration of 3 months to 5 years, and no or only minor neurological impairment (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score 0-2.5) were compared to 50 healthy controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). RESULTS: The performance of definite MS, CIS patients, and controls was comparable for the two main outcomes of the IGT (learning index: p = 0.7; total score: p = 0.6). The IGT learning index was influenced by the educational level and the co-occurrence of minor depression. CIS and MS patients developing a relapse during an observation period of 15 months dated from IGT testing demonstrated a lower learning index in the IGT than patients who had no exacerbation (p = 0.02). When controlling for age, gender and education, the difference between relapsing and non-relapsing patients was at the limit of significance (p = 0.06). CONCLUSION: Decision making in a task mimicking real life decisions is generally preserved in early MS patients as compared to controls. A possible consequence of MS relapsing activity in the impairment of decision making ability is also suspected in the early phase of MS.

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Because the diagnostic tools for predicting whether an early cleavage stage embryo can lead to a viable pregnancy are still elusive, transfer of more than one embryo remains quite common. However, the only way to reduce multiple pregnancies, considered as the main adverse effect of assisted reproductive technology, is to transfer a single embryo. In countries such as Switzerland and Germany, the law allows cryopreservation only at the 2-pronuclear stage. This restricts considerably the possibility of selecting the embryos to be transferred. Therefore, a good cryopreservation program at the 2-pronuclear stage is an essential tool to optimize the efficiency of in vitro fertilization (IVF). We therefore recommend the Cumulated Singleton Delivery Rate (CUSIDERA) as a measure of standard IVF efficiency. This rate averages approximately 23.5% when calculated over the last 10 years in our unit and reaches a value above 35% for patients with more than 10 zygotes. Elective single-embryo transfers and the decrease of iatrogenic multiple pregnancies in IVF remain dependent on better prognostic tools for the appropriate selection of patients, gametes, and zygotes.

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Background: Event-related potentials (ERPs) may be used as a highly sensitive way of detecting subtle degrees of cognitive dysfunction. On the other hand, impairment of cognitive skills is increasingly recognised as a hallmark of patients suffering from multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought to determine the psychophysiological pattern of information processing among MS patients with the relapsing-remitting form of the disease and low physical disability considered as two subtypes: 'typical relapsing-remitting' (RRMS) and 'benign MS' (BMS). Furthermore, we subjected our data to a cluster analysis to determine whether MS patients and healthy controls could be differentiated in terms of their psychophysiological profile.Methods: We investigated MS patients with RRMS and BMS subtypes using event-related potentials (ERPs) acquired in the context of a Posner visual-spatial cueing paradigm. Specifically, our study aimed to assess ERP brain activity in response preparation (contingent negative variation -CNV) and stimuli processing in MS patients. Latency and amplitude of different ERP components (P1, eN1, N1, P2, N2, P3 and late negativity -LN) as well as behavioural responses (reaction time -RT; correct responses -CRs; and number of errors) were analyzed and then subjected to cluster analysis. Results: Both MS groups showed delayed behavioural responses and enhanced latency for long-latency ERP components (P2, N2, P3) as well as relatively preserved ERP amplitude, but BMS patients obtained more important performance deficits (lower CRs and higher RTs) and abnormalities related to the latency (N1, P3) and amplitude of ERPs (eCNV, eN1, LN). However, RRMS patients also demonstrated abnormally high amplitudes related to the preparation performance period of CNV (cCNV) and post-processing phase (LN). Cluster analyses revealed that RRMS patients appear to make up a relatively homogeneous group with moderate deficits mainly related to ERP latencies, whereas BMS patients appear to make up a rather more heterogeneous group with more severe information processing and attentional deficits. Conclusions: Our findings are suggestive of a slowing of information processing for MS patients that may be a consequence of demyelination and axonal degeneration, which also seems to occur in MS patients that show little or no progression in the physical severity of the disease over time.

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Background. A software based tool has been developed (Optem) to allow automatize the recommendations of the Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group for optimizing MS treatment in order to avoid subjective interpretation. METHODS: Treatment Optimization Recommendations (TORs) were applied to our database of patients treated with IFN beta1a IM. Patient data were assessed during year 1 for disease activity, and patients were assigned to 2 groups according to TOR: "change treatment" (CH) and "no change treatment" (NCH). These assessments were then compared to observed clinical outcomes for disease activity over the following years. RESULTS: We have data on 55 patients. The "change treatment" status was assigned to 22 patients, and "no change treatment" to 33 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity according to last visit status were 73.9% and 84.4%. During the following years, the Relapse Rate was always higher in the "change treatment" group than in the "no change treatment" group (5 y; CH: 0.7, NCH: 0.07; p < 0.001, 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.536, NCH: 0.34). We obtained the same results with the EDSS (4 y; CH: 3.53, NCH: 2.55, annual progression rate in 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.29, NCH: 0.13). CONCLUSION: Applying TOR at the first year of therapy allowed accurate prediction of continued disease activity in relapses and disability progression.