Why peace processes fail or move forward? Negotiations in Colombia with FARC and AUC (1998-2003)

Este trabajo examina la teoría sobre guerras civiles y resolución de conflictos con el fin de contestar la pregunta: ¿por qué fracasan o progresan los procesos de paz? Se miraron los procesos de paz en Colombia en los últimos cinco años cuando comenzó y fracasó el proceso de paz con las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC y comenzaron con las Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, AUC. La teoría revela la relevancia de factores económicos, políticos, participación externa y militares para explicar por que fallan o prosperan los procesos de paz. Por su parte, el fracaso de las negociaciones con las FARC puede explicarse por razones de estrategia militar, el rol de la violencia durante la negociación y la falta de participación internacional. De otro lado, evitando todos los puntos sensibles de la negociación inicial, las AUC ganaron apoyo de la opinión publica y la confianza del gobierno para iniciar los diálogos. De esta forma, tenemos dos procesos recientes en Colombia para analizar: uno que fallo y el otro que esta progresando. El análisis de estos procesos puede ayudarnos a contestar la pregunta inicial de este trabajo.

CPLP : a cultura como principal factor de coesão

CPLP – A Cultura Como Principal Factor de Coesão é uma dissertação que analisa a história da Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP), no sentido de descobrir qual será o elemento mais preponderante na sua unidade e coesão. Incentivar a difusão da língua portuguesa, da criação intelectual e artística, e contribuir para o reforço da solidariedade e fraternidade entre todos os povos que têm essa língua como um dos fundamentos da sua identidade específica são os seus objectivos. Investigou-se o grau e o modo do cumprimento desses propósitos. Da comparação dos dados ressaltou uma conclusão inequívoca: a cultura é o elo mais forte na coesão da CPLP, embora não se vislumbrem estratégias assumidas com rigor quer da política da língua portuguesa, quer da política das culturas lusófonas. Confirmou-se que a CPLP nasceu como Comunidade de língua e culturas e não como comunidade económica. Tentou-se caracterizar a «identidade» lusófona. Para tal, percorreu-se a história da expansão, os processos de colonização, as características de miscigenação física e intercultural, enquanto se chamavam as mais recentes teorias sociológicas para uma caracterização do conceito de cultura «lusófona»: «ecológica de saberes», «de fronteira», «intercultural» e «tradutora de culturas». São apontadas melhorias estratégicas.

Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change.

This paper describes the development and first results of the “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the community of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers’ ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth’s climate system is provided.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Typification of farming systems for constructing representative farm models: two illustrations of the application of multi-variate analyses in Chile and Pakistan

If the fundamental precepts of Farming Systems Research were to be taken literally then it would imply that for each farm 'unique' solutions should be sought. This is an unrealistic expectation, but it has led to the idea of a recommendation domain, implying creating a taxonomy of farms, in order to increase the general applicability of recommendations. Mathematical programming models are an established means of generating recommended solutions, but for such models to be effective they have to be constructed for 'truly' typical or representative situations. The multi-variate statistical techniques provide a means of creating the required typologies, particularly when an exhaustive database is available. This paper illustrates the application of this methodology in two different studies that shared the common purpose of identifying types of farming systems in their respective study areas. The issues related with the use of factor and cluster analyses for farm typification prior to building representative mathematical programming models for Chile and Pakistan are highlighted. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neurokinin-B transcription in erythroid cells - Direct activation by the hematopoietic transcription factor GATA-1

The GATA family of transcription factors establishes genetic networks that control developmental processes including hematopoiesis, vasculogenesis, and cardiogenesis. We found that GATA-1 strongly activates transcription of the Tac-2 gene, which encodes proneurokinin-B, a precursor of neurokinin-B (NK-B). Neurokinins function through G protein-coupled transmembrane receptors to mediate diverse physiological responses including pain perception and the control of vascular tone. Whereas an elevated level of NK-B was implicated in pregnancy-associated pre-eclampsia ( Page, N. M., Woods, R. J., Gardiner, S. M., Lomthaisong, K., Gladwell, R. T., Butlin, D. J., Manyonda, I. T., and Lowry, P. J. ( 2000) Nature 405, 797 - 800), the regulation of NK-B synthesis and function are poorly understood. Tac-2 was expressed in normal murine erythroid cells and was induced upon ex vivo erythropoiesis. An estrogen receptor fusion to GATA-1 (ER-GATA-1) and endogenous GATA-1 both occupied a region of Tac-2 intron-7, which contains two conserved GATA motifs. Genetic complementation analysis in GATA-1-null G1E cells revealed that endogenous GATA-2 occupied the same region of intron-7, and expression of ER-GATA-1 displaced GATA-2 and activated Tac-2 transcription. Erythroid cells did not express neurokinin receptors, whereas aortic and yolk sac endothelial cells differentially expressed neurokinin receptor subtypes. Since NK-B induced cAMP accumulation in yolk sac endothelial cells, these results suggest a new mode of vascular regulation in which GATA-1 controls NK-B synthesis in erythroid cells.

Techniques for quantifying effects of dietary antioxidants on transcription factor translocation and nitric oxide production in cultured cells

Dietary antioxidants can affect cellular processes relevant to chronic inflammatory diseases such as atherosclerosis. We have used non- standard techniques to quantify effects of the antioxidant soy isoflavones genistein and daidzein on translocation of Nuclear Factor-KB (NF-KB) and nitric oxide (NO) production, which are important in these diseases. Translocation was quantified using confocal immunofluoresecence microscopy and ratiometric image analysis. NO was quantified by an electrochemical method after reduction of its oxidation products in cell culture supernatants. Activation of the RAW 264.7 murine monocyte/macrophage cell line increased the ratio of nuclear to cytoplasmic immunostaining for NF-kB. The increase was exacerbated by pre-treatment with genistein or daidzein. To show that decreases could also be detected, pre-treatment with the pine bark extract Pycnogenol (R) r was examined, and found to reduce translocation. NO production was also increased by activation, but was reduced by pre-treatment with genistein or daidzein. In the EA. hy926 human endothelial cell line, constitutive production was detectable and was increased by thrombin. The confocal and electrochemical methods gave data that agreed with results obtained using the established electromobility shift and Griess assays, but were more sensitive, more convenient, gave more detailed information and avoided the use of radioisotopes.

Requirements analysis for an e-government system to support multi-organisational collaborative groups

We present a conceptual architecture for a Group Support System (GSS) to facilitate Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) initiated by local government and including external organisations of various types. Multi-Organisational Collaborative Groups (MOCGs) consist of individuals from several organisations which have agreed to work together to solve a problem. The expectation is that more can be achieved working in harmony than separately. Work is done interdependently, rather than independently in diverse directions. Local government, faced with solving complex social problems, deploy MOCGs to enable solutions across organisational, functional, professional and juridical boundaries, by involving statutory, voluntary, community, not-for-profit and private organisations. This is not a silver bullet as it introduces new pressures. Each member organisation has its own goals, operating context and particular approaches, which can be expressed as their norms and business processes. Organisations working together must find ways of eliminating differences or mitigating their impact in order to reduce the risks of collaborative inertia and conflict. A GSS is an electronic collaboration system that facilitates group working and can offer assistance to MOCGs. Since many existing GSSs have been primarily developed for single organisation collaborative groups, even though there are some common issues, there are some difficulties peculiar to MOCGs, and others that they experience to a greater extent: a diversity of primary organisational goals among members; different funding models and other pressures; more significant differences in other information systems both technologically and in their use than single organisations; greater variation in acceptable approaches to solve problems. In this paper, we analyse the requirements of MOCGs led by local government agencies, leading to a conceptual architecture for an e-government GSS that captures the relationships between 'goal', 'context', 'norm', and 'business process'. Our models capture the dynamics of the circumstances surrounding each individual representing an organisation in a MOCG along with the dynamics of the MOCG itself as a separate community.

Contribution of the double layer to transient faradaic processes: implications for hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry of nanostructures

The electrochemistry of Pt nanostructured electrodes is investigated using hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV). Here a liquid crystal templating process is used to produce platinum-modified electrodes with a range of surface areas (roughness factor 42.4-280.8). The electroreduction of molecular oxygen at these nanostructured platinum surfaces is used to demonstrate the ability of HMV to discriminate between faradaic and nonfaradaic electrode reactions. The HMV approach shows that the reduction of molecular oxygen experiences considerable signal loss within the high pseudocapacitive region of the voltammetry. Evidence for the contribution of the double layer to transient mass transfer events is presented. In addition, a model circuit and appropriate theoretical analysis are used to illustrate the transient responses of a time variant faradaic component. This in conjunction with the experimental evidence shows that, far from being a passive component in this system, the double layer can contribute to HMV faradaic reactions under certain conditions.

Differential regulation of Krüppel-like factor family transcription factor expression in neonatal rat cardiac myocytes: effects of endothelin-1, oxidative stress and cytokines

Krüppel-like transcription factors (Klfs) modulate fundamental cell processes. Cardiac myocytes are terminally-differentiated, but hypertrophy in response to stimuli such as endothelin-1. H2O2 or cytokines promote myocyte apoptosis. Microarray studies of neonatal rat myocytes identified several Klfs as endothelin-1-responsive genes. We used quantitative PCR for further analysis of Klf expression in neonatal rat myocytes. In response to endothelin-1, Klf2 mRNA expression was rapidly increased ( approximately 9-fold; 15-30 min) with later increases in expression of Klf4 and Klf6 ( approximately 5-fold; 30-60 min). All were regulated as immediate early genes (cycloheximide did not inhibit the increases in expression). Klf5 expression was increased at 1-2 h ( approximately 13-fold) as a second phase response (cycloheximide inhibited the increase). These increases were transient and attenuated by U0126. H2O2 increased expression of Klf2, Klf4 and Klf6, but interleukin-1beta or tumor necrosis factor alpha downregulated Klf2 expression with no effect on Klf4 or Klf6. Of the Klfs which repress transcription, endothelin-1 rapidly downregulated expression of Klf3, Klf11 and Klf15. The dynamic regulation of expression of multiple Klf family members in cardiac myocytes suggests that, as a family, they are actively involved in regulating phenotypic responses (hypertrophy and apoptosis) to extracellular stimuli.

Blind channel estimation for multi-rate multicarrier DS/CDMA communications

Multi-rate multicarrier DS/CDMA is a potentially attractive multiple access method for future wireless communications networks that must support multimedia, and thus multi-rate, traffic. Several receiver structures exist for single-rate multicarrier systems, but little has been reported on multi-rate multicarrier systems. Considering that high-performance detection such as coherent demodulation needs the explicit knowledge of the channel, based on the finite-length chip waveform truncation, this paper proposes a subspace-based scheme for timing and channel estimation in multi-rate multicarrier DS/CDMA systems, which is applicable to both multicode and variable spreading factor systems. The performance of the proposed scheme for these two multi-rate systems is validated via numerical simulations. The effects of the finite-length chip waveform truncation on the performance of the proposed scheme is also analyzed theoretically.

Blind channel estimation in multi-rate multicarrier DS-CDMA systems

Multi-rate multicarrier DS-CDMA is a potentially attractive multiple access method for future broadband wireless multimedia networks that must support integrated voice/data traffic. This paper proposes a subspace based channel estimation scheme for multi-rate multicarrier DS-CDMA, which is applicable to both multicode and variable spreading factor systems. The performance of the proposed scheme for these two multi-rate systems is compared via numerical simulations.

Blind channel acquisition and channel estimation for multi-rate multicarrier DS-CDMA communications

Multi-rate multicarrier DS-CDMA is a potentially attractive multiple access method for future wireless networks that must support multimedia, and thus multi-rate, traffic. Considering that high performance detection such as coherent demodulation needs the explicit knowledge of the channel, this paper proposes a subspace-based blind adaptive algorithm for timing acquisition and channel estimation in asynchronous multirate multicarrier DS-CDMA systems, which is applicable to both multicode and variable spreading factor systems.

Chemical ageing and transformation of diffusivity in semi-solid multi-component organic aerosol particles

Recent experimental evidence underlines the importance of reduced diffusivity in amorphous semi-solid or glassy atmospheric aerosols. This paper investigates the impact of diffusivity on the ageing of multi-component reactive organic particles representative of atmospheric cooking aerosols. We apply and extend the recently developed KM-SUB model in a study of a 12-component mixture containing oleic and palmitoleic acids. We demonstrate that changes in the diffusivity may explain the evolution of chemical loss rates in ageing semi-solid particles, and we resolve surface and bulk processes under transient reaction conditions considering diffusivities altered by oligomerisation. This new model treatment allows prediction of the ageing of mixed organic multi-component aerosols over atmospherically relevant time scales and conditions. We illustrate the impact of changing diffusivity on the chemical half-life of reactive components in semisolid particles, and we demonstrate how solidification and crust formation at the particle surface can affect the chemical transformation of organic aerosols.

Analytic approximations for multi-asset option pricing

We derive general analytic approximations for pricing European basket and rainbow options on N assets. The key idea is to express the option’s price as a sum of prices of various compound exchange options, each with different pairs of subordinate multi- or single-asset options. The underlying asset prices are assumed to follow lognormal processes, although our results can be extended to certain other price processes for the underlying. For some multi-asset options a strong condition holds, whereby each compound exchange option is equivalent to a standard single-asset option under a modified measure, and in such cases an almost exact analytic price exists. More generally, approximate analytic prices for multi-asset options are derived using a weak lognormality condition, where the approximation stems from making constant volatility assumptions on the price processes that drive the prices of the subordinate basket options. The analytic formulae for multi-asset option prices, and their Greeks, are defined in a recursive framework. For instance, the option delta is defined in terms of the delta relative to subordinate multi-asset options, and the deltas of these subordinate options with respect to the underlying assets. Simulations test the accuracy of our approximations, given some assumed values for the asset volatilities and correlations. Finally, a calibration algorithm is proposed and illustrated.