The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania

While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the underlying currency loses value. We conjecture that a reverse causation, which further weakens the currency, may be mitigated by price stability. Data from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania support this: depreciation makes exchange rate more volatile for all but volatility does not causes depreciation in Tanzania which has enjoyed a more stable inflation despite all countries adopting similar macro-policies since early 1990s.

Institutions, Property Rights, and Economic Development in Historical Perspective

Institutions, and more speci cally private property rights, have come to be seen as a major determinant of long-run economic development. We evaluate the case for property rights as an explanatory factor of the Industrial Revolution and derive some lessons for the analysis of developing countries today. We pay particular attention to the role of property rights in the accumulation of physical capital and the production of new ideas. The evidence that we review from the economic history literature does not support the institutional thesis.

The Marginal Productivity Theory Of The Price Of Capital: An Historical Perspective On The Origins Of The Codswallop

Although it might have been expected that, by this point in time, the unacceptability of the marginal productivity theory of the return on capital would be universally agreed, that is evidently not the case. Popular textbooks still propound the dogma to the innocent. This note is presented in the hope that a succinct indication of the origins of the theory it will contribute to a more general appreciation of the unrealistic and illogical nature of this doctrine.

Cultura i Societat en la guerra del Francès

Des de que començà aquest projecte, el grup de recerca ha intentat aprofundir el coneixement de la Catalunya de la Guerra del Francès (1808 -1814) a partir d’una òptica britànica. El grup pretenia així desenvolupar la relació que es va establir entre els catalans i els britànics al llarg de tota la guerra, des dels primers contactes permesos per la presència de la flota britànica en la costa catalana fins a la intervenció de forces britàniques en territori català. D’aquesta manera, i primerament, el grup inicià la consulta de les bases de dades i catàlegs catalans i britànics per a completar el nostre llistat de referències arxivístiques i bibliogràfiques. El segon pas van ésser les tres estades d’investigació que entre el 2006 i el 2007 es van fer a Anglaterra, principalment a Londres. La investigació es realitzà a la British Library, al Institute of Historical Research of the School of Advanced Studies de la University of London, al National Maritime Museum i als National Archives of the United Kingdom. A continuació, el grup analitzà la informació recollida de la lectura de fonts primàries i bibliogràfiques en aquests centres de recerca. Finalment, el grup creu que la intensa relació que es va establir entre les dues parts, reflecteix la importància que les autoritats britàniques van donar a Catalunya, i que el seu aïllament amb el centre polític del bàndol patriota va permetre que desenvolupés les seves pròpies dinàmiques i cronologies, encara que s’integraven en el desenvolupament general de la guerra.

Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Water scarcity, social power and the production of an elite suburb: the political ecology of water in Matadepera, Catalonia

This article investigates the history of land and water transformations in Matadepera, a wealthy suburb of metropolitan Barcelona. Analysis is informed by theories of political ecology and methods of environmental history; although very relevant, these have received relatively little attention within ecological economics. Empirical material includes communications from the City Archives of Matadepera (1919-1979), 17 interviews with locals born between 1913 and 1958, and an exhaustive review of grey historical literature. Existing water histories of Barcelona and its outskirts portray a battle against natural water scarcity, hard won by heroic engineers and politicians acting for the good of the community. Our research in Matadepera tells a very different story. We reveal the production of a highly uneven landscape and waterscape through fierce political and power struggles. The evolution of Matadepera from a small rural village to an elite suburb was anything but spontaneous or peaceful. It was a socio-environmental project well intended by landowning elites and heavily fought by others. The struggle for the control of water went hand in hand with the land and political struggles that culminated – and were violently resolved - in the Spanish Civil War. The displacement of the economic and environmental costs of water use from few to many continues to this day and is constitutive of Matadepera’s uneven and unsustainable landscape. By unravelling the relations of power that are inscribed in the urbanization of nature (Swyngedouw, 2004), we question the perceived wisdoms of contemporary water policy debates, particularly the notion of a natural scarcity that merits a technical or economic response. We argue that the water question is fundamentally a political question of environmental justice; it is about negotiating alternative visions of the future and deciding whose visions will be produced.

L'hystérie : une entité historique, un trouble psychiatrique ou une maladie neurologique? [Hysteria : an historical entity, a psychiatric condition or a neurological disease?]

Il a été suggéré que l'hystérie avait disparu et n'était qu'un concept ancien, stigmatisant et péjoratif, voire erroné, reflétant l'incapacité de la communauté médicale à établir parfois un diagnostic. Actuellement ces troubles, appelés troubles dissociatifs ou de conversion, restent pourtant une réalité clinique fréquente et invalidante pour les patients. Plusieurs études et revues ont tenté de mieux décrire la présentation clinique, mais également de mieux comprendre les mécanismes neurobiologiques impliqués dans ces troubles grâce au développement de certaines techniques d'imagerie cérébrale. Si les corrélats neurobiologiques sont mieux compris, des traitements efficaces manquent encore et seule une prise en charge multidisciplinaire (généralistes, neurologues et psychiatres) et individualisée peut apporter un bénéfice au patient. It has been suggested that hysteria had waned and was an old-fashioned, stigmatizing and false concept, reflecting the incapacity of the medical community to establish a diagnosis in certain situations. Nowadays, however, those disturbances, now referred to as conversion or dissociative disorders, still remain a frequent and incapacitating condition that every clinician faces. These past decades, several studies have tried to better describe their clinical presentation and their neurobiological mechanisms, with the help of the development of new neuroimaging techniques. If the neurobiological correlates are now better understood, efficient treatments are still lacking and only a multidisciplinary (general practitioners, neurologists and psychiatrists) and individually-tailored therapy might be beneficial to the patients.

CAT (Curator Archiving Tool): improving access to web archives

PADICAT is the web archive created in 2005 in Catalonia (Spain ) by the Library of Catalonia (BC ) , the National Library of Catalonia , with the aim of collecting , processing and providing permanent access to the digital heritage of Catalonia . Its harvesting strategy is based on the hybrid model ( of massive harvesting . SPA top level domain ; selective compilation of the web site output of Catalan organizations; focused harvesting of public events) . The system provides open access to the whole collection , on the Internet . We consider necessary to complement the current search for new and visualization software with open source software tool, CAT ( Curator Archiving Tool) , composed by three modules aimed to effectively managing the processes of human cataloguing ; to publish directories where the digital resources and special collections ; and to offer statistical information of added value to end users. Within the framework of the International Internet Preservation Consortium meeting ( Vienna 2010) , the progress in the development of this new tool, and the philosophy that has motivated his design, are presented to the international community.

Toward partial reorientation of land management for sustainability in view of material circulation: biophysical and historical analysis

This paper explores two major issues, from biophysical and historical viewpoints. We examine land management, which we define as the long-term fertility maintenance of land in relation to agriculture, fishery and forestry. We also explore humans’ positive role as agents aiming to reinforce harmonious materials circulation within the land. Liebig’s view on nature, agriculture and land, emphasizes the maintenance of long-term land fertility based on his agronomical thought that the circulation of matter in agricultural fields must be maintained with manure as much as possible. The thoughts of several classical economists, on nature, agriculture and land are reassessed from Liebig’s view point. Then, the land management problem is discussed at a much more fundamental level, to understand the necessary conditions for life in relation to land management. This point is analyzed in terms of two mechanisms: entropy disposal on the earth, and material circulation against gravitational field. Finally from the historical example of the metropolis of Edo, it is shown that there is yet another necessary condition for the sustainable management of land based on the creation of harmonious material cycles among cities, farm land, forests and surrounding sea areas in which humans play a vital role as agent.