Declining stroke and myocardial infarction mortality between 1989 and 2010 in a country of the African region.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In low- and middle-income countries, the total burden of cardiovascular diseases is expected to increase due to demographic and epidemiological transitions. However, data on cause-specific mortality are lacking in sub-Saharan Africa. Seychelles is one of the few countries in the region where all deaths are registered and medically certified. In this study, we examine trends in mortality for stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) between 1989 and 2010. METHODS: Based on vital statistics, we ascertained stroke and MI as the cause of death if appearing in any of the 4 fields for immediate, intermediate, underlying, and contributory causes in death certificates. RESULTS: Mortality rates (per 100 000, age-standardized to World Health Organization standard population) decreased from 1669/710 (men/women) in 1989 to 1991 to 1113/535 in 2008-10 for all causes, from 250/140 to 141/86 for stroke, and from 117/51 to 59/24 for MI, corresponding to proportionate decreases of 33%/25% for all-cause mortality, 44%/39% for stroke, and 50%/53% for MI over 22 years. The absolute number of stroke and MI deaths did not increase over time. In 2008 to 2010, the median age of death was 65/78 years (men/women) for all causes, 68/78 for stroke, and 66/73 for MI. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1989 and 2010, age-standardized stroke and MI mortality decreased markedly and more rapidly than all-cause mortality. The absolute number of cardiovascular disease deaths did not increase over time because the impact of population aging was fully compensated by the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality. Stroke mortality remained high, emphasizing the need to strengthen cardiovascular disease prevention and control.

Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries.

With advances in the effectiveness of treatment and disease management, the contribution of chronic comorbid diseases (comorbidities) found within the Charlson comorbidity index to mortality is likely to have changed since development of the index in 1984. The authors reevaluated the Charlson index and reassigned weights to each condition by identifying and following patients to observe mortality within 1 year after hospital discharge. They applied the updated index and weights to hospital discharge data from 6 countries and tested for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. Compared with the original Charlson weights, weights generated from the Calgary, Alberta, Canada, data (2004) were 0 for 5 comorbidities, decreased for 3 comorbidities, increased for 4 comorbidities, and did not change for 5 comorbidities. The C statistics for discriminating in-hospital mortality between the new score generated from the 12 comorbidities and the Charlson score were 0.825 (new) and 0.808 (old), respectively, in Australian data (2008), 0.828 and 0.825 in Canadian data (2008), 0.878 and 0.882 in French data (2004), 0.727 and 0.723 in Japanese data (2008), 0.831 and 0.836 in New Zealand data (2008), and 0.869 and 0.876 in Swiss data (2008). The updated index of 12 comorbidities showed good-to-excellent discrimination in predicting in-hospital mortality in data from 6 countries and may be more appropriate for use with more recent administrative data.

Prospective multicenter study of the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

Congenital heart defects in Europe: prevalence and perinatal mortality, 2000 to 2005.

BACKGROUND: This study determines the prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects (CHD), diagnosed prenatally or in infancy, and fetal and perinatal mortality associated with CHD in Europe. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were extracted from the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies central database for 29 population-based congenital anomaly registries in 16 European countries covering 3.3 million births during the period 2000 to 2005. CHD cases (n=26 598) comprised live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). The average total prevalence of CHD was 8.0 per 1000 births, and live birth prevalence was 7.2 per 1000 births, varying between countries. The total prevalence of nonchromosomal CHD was 7.0 per 1000 births, of which 3.6% were perinatal deaths, 20% prenatally diagnosed, and 5.6% TOPFA. Severe nonchromosomal CHD (ie, excluding ventricular septal defects, atrial septal defects, and pulmonary valve stenosis) occurred in 2.0 per 1000 births, of which 8.1% were perinatal deaths, 40% were prenatally diagnosed, and 14% were TOPFA (TOPFA range between countries 0% to 32%). Live-born CHD associated with Down syndrome occurred in 0.5 per 1000 births, with > 4-fold variation between countries. CONCLUSION: Annually in the European Union, we estimate 36 000 children are live born with CHD and 3000 who are diagnosed with CHD die as a TOFPA, late fetal death, or early neonatal death. Investing in primary prevention and pathogenetic research is essential to reduce this burden, as well as continuing to improve cardiac services from in utero to adulthood.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.

Lung cancer mortality in European men: Trends and predictions.

Lung cancer mortality in men from the European Union (EU) peaked in the late 1980s at an age-standardised (world standard population) rate over 53/100,000 and declined subsequently to reach 44/100,000 in the early 2000s. To provide a comprehensive picture of recent trends in male lung cancer mortality in Europe, we analyzed available data from the World Health Organization up to 2009 and predicted future rates to 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates in EU men continued to fall over recent years, to reach a value of 41.1/100,000 in 2005-2009. The fall was similar at all-ages and in middle-aged men (less than 2% per year over most recent years), but was appreciably larger in young men (aged 20-44years, over 5% per year). A favourable trend is thus likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future, although the predicted overall EU rate in 2015 is still over 35/100,000, i.e., higher than the US rate in 2007 (33.7/100,000). Over most recent calendar years, overall male lung cancer rates were around 35-40/100,000 in western Europe, as compared to over 50/100,000 in central and eastern Europe. Within western Europe, lung cancer rates were lower in northern countries such as Sweden, but also Finland and the UK (below 30/100,000), where the tobacco-related epidemic started earlier and rates have long been declining, whereas mortality was high in Belgium (51.6), France (42.3), the Netherlands and Spain (around 43.0), where the epidemic started later but is persisting. Widespread measures for smoking control and cessation in middle-aged European men, i.e., in the generations where smoking prevalence used to be high, would lead to appreciable reductions in male lung cancer mortality in the near future. This is particularly urgent in central and eastern European countries.

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

Cancer mortality in Europe, 2000-2004, and an overview of trends since 1975.

BACKGROUND: To update the pattern of cancer mortality in Europe. Materials and methods: We analysed cancer mortality in 34 European countries during 2000-2004, with an overview of trends in 1975-2004 using data from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: From 1990-1994 to 2000-2004, overall cancer mortality in the European Union declined from 185.2 to 168.0/100 000 (world standard, -9%) in men and from 104.8 to 96.9 (-8%) in women, with larger falls in middle age. Total cancer mortality trends were favourable, though to a variable degree, in all major European countries, including Russia, but not in Romania. The major determinants of these favourable trends were the decline of lung (-16%) and other tobacco-related cancers in men, together with the persistent falls in gastric cancer, and the recent appreciable falls in colorectal cancer. In women, relevant contributions came from the persistent decline in cervical cancer and the recent falls in breast cancer mortality, particularly in northern and western Europe. Favourable trends were also observed for testicular cancer, Hodgkin lymphomas, leukaemias, and other neoplasms amenable to treatment, though the reductions were still appreciably smaller in eastern Europe. CONCLUSION: This updated analysis of cancer mortality in Europe showed a persistent favourable trend over the last years.

Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates.

Trends in smoking and lung cancer mortality in Switzerland.

Patterns of cigarette smoking in Switzerland were analyzed on the basis of sales data (available since 1924) and national health surveys conducted in the last decade. There was a steady and substantial increase in cigarettes sales up to the early 1970s. Thereafter, the curve tended to level off around an average value of 3,000 cigarettes per adult per year. According to the 1981-1983 National Health Survey, 37% of Swiss men were current smokers, 25% were ex-smokers, and 39% were never smokers. Corresponding porportions in women were 22, 11, and 67%. Among men, smoking prevalence was higher in lower social classes, and some moderate decline was apparent from survey data over the period 1975-1981 mostly in later middle-age. Trends in lung cancer death certification rates over the period 1950-1984 were analyzed using standard cross-sectional methods and a log-linear Poisson model to isolate the effects of age, birth cohort, and year of death. Mortality from lung cancer increased substantially among Swiss men between the early 1950s and the late 1970s, and levelled off (around a value of 70/100,000 men) thereafter. Among women, there has been a steady upward trend which started in the mid-1960s, and continues to climb steadily, although lung cancer mortality is still considerably lower in absolute terms (around 8/100,000 women) than in several North European countries or in North America. Cohort analyses indicate that the peak rates in men were reached by the generation born around 1910 and mortality stabilized for subsequent generations up to the 1930 birth cohort. Among females, marked increases were observed in each subsequent birth cohort. This pattern of trends is consistent with available information on smoking prevalence in successive generations, showing a peak among men for the 1910 cohort, but steady upward trends among females. Over the period 1980-1984, about 90% of lung cancer deaths among Swiss men and about 40% of those among women could be attributed to smoking (overall proportion, 85%).

Exploring the conditions for a mortality crisis: bringing context back into the debate

This study engages with the debate over the mortality crises in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe by 1) considering at length and as complementary to each other the two most prominent explanations for the post-communist mortality crisis, stress and alcohol consumption; 2) emphasizing the importance of context by exploiting systematic similarities and differences across the region. Differential mortality trajectories reveal three country groups that cluster both spatially and in terms of economic transition experiences. The first group are the countries furthest west in which mortality rates increased minimally after the transition began. The second group experienced a severe increase in mortality rates in the early 1990s, but recovered previous levels within a few years. These countries are located peripherally to Russia and its nearest neighbours. The final group consists of countries that experienced two mortality increases or in which mortality levels had not recovered to pre-transition levels well into the 21st century. Cross-sectional time-series data analyses of men’s and women’s age and cause-specific death rates reveal that the clustering of these countries and their mortality trajectories can be partially explained by the economic context, which is argued to be linked to stress and alcohol consumption. Above and beyond many basic differences in the country groups that are held constant—including geographically and historically shared cultural, lifestyle and social characteristics—poor economic conditions account for a remarkably consistent share of excess age-specific and cause-specific deaths.

Growth arrest-specific gene 6 (GAS6) as an intra-hospital mortality predictor for patients in septic shock

Aim: Gas6 is known to be elevated in sepsis, correlating with the severity of infection and organ failure. We aimed to investigate the performance of Gas6 plasma levels at admission to predict the risk of mortality in a cohort of septic patients.Methods: We used prospectively collected data and plasma samples from the 'Sepsis Cohorte Romande'. Gas6 level was measured by ELISA at admission and expressed in percentage relative to its level in a pool of normal plasma.Results: Non-survivors (n = 19) presented higher Gas6 levels than survivors (n = 78; median 287% vs. 158%, IQR 182 and 119 respectively; P = 0.0003). Gas6 correlated positively with different cytokine and was the best mortality predictor, as shown by the ROC curves area (Fig. 1). In patients with septic shock (n = 67), using 249% as a cut-off value, Gas6 measurement had a specificity of 81% and a sensitivity of 68% for predicting mortality. ROC curve area was 0.76. Positive and negative predictive values were 59% and 87%, respectively.Conclusion: Thus, Gas6 plasma level at admission might be a useful tool to predict mortality in patients with septic shock. Nevertheless, independent association of Gas6 level with mortality still needs to be assessed. Although Gas6 hold promise as an early sepsis marker, its precise implication in sepsis remains to be elucidated.

Epidemiology and mortality of glacier crevasse accidents.

INTRODUCTION: Crevasse accidents can lead to severe injuries and even death, but little is known about their epidemiology and mortality. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed helicopter-based emergency services rescue missions for crevasse victims in Switzerland between 2000 and 2010. Demographic and epidemiological data were collected. Injury severity was graded according to the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) score. RESULTS: A total of 415 victims of crevasse falls were included in the study. The mean victim age was 40 years (SD 13) (range 6-75), 84% were male, and 67% were foreigners. The absolute number of victims was much higher during the months of March, April, July, and August, amounting to 73% of all victims; 77% of victims were practicing mountaineering or ski touring. The mean depth of fall was 16.5m (SD 9.0) (range 1-35). Overall on-site mortality was 11%, and it was higher during the ski season than the ski offseason (14% vs. 7%; P=0.01), for foreigners (14% vs. 5%; P=0.01), and with higher mean depth of fall (22 vs. 15m; P=0.01). The NACA score was ≥4 for 22% of the victims, indicating potential or overt vital threatening injuries, but 24% of the victims were uninjured (NACA 0). Multivariable analyses revealed that depth of the fall, summer season, and snowshoeing were associated with higher NACA scores, whereas depth of the fall, snowshoeing, and foreigners but not season were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSION: The clinical spectrum of injuries sustained by the 415 patients in this study ranged from benign to life-threatening. Death occurred in 11% of victims and seems to be determined primarily by the depth of the fall.

The circadian rhythm of the perinatal mortality rate in Switzerland.

The authors examine the relation between the perinatal mortality rate (PMR), birth weight in four categories, and hour of birth throughout the week in Switzerland, using data on 672,013 births and 5,764 perinatal deaths recorded between 1979 and 1987. From Monday to Friday, the PMR follows a circadian rhythm with a regular increase from early morning to evening, with a peak for babies born between 7 and 8 p.m. This pattern of variation has two main components: The circadian rhythms for the proportion of births in the four weight categories and the PMR circadian rhythm for babies weighing more than 2.5 kg. According to a cosinor model, which describes about 40% of the total variation in the PMR, the most important determinants are changes in the proportions of births: Low birth weight increases toward the afternoon and night. Mechanisms underlying the weight-specific timing of birth are discussed, including time selection of birth according to obstetric risks, the direct effect of neonatal and obstetric care, and chronobiologic behavior.

Maternal mortality from hemorrhage in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil

Hemorrhage represents a set of causes that focuses on women during the pregnancy and puerperal period, and that, with improper attention, results in death. The authors aimed to analyze maternal deaths related to hemorrhage that occurred in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and Live Births Information System from the Brazilian Ministry of Health. This was a descriptive study, in which 491 maternal deaths that occurred in the period 1997-2010 were analyzed. Of these, 61 were related to hemorrhage, corresponding to 12.42%; postpartum hemorrhage was the most prevalent cause, with 26 deaths, followed by placental abruption with 15, representing 67.21% of the cases. The maternal mortality from hemorrhage is a public health problem in the state of Santa Catarina, due to its high prevalence and the fact that its underlying causes are preventable.