EURECCA colorectal: multidisciplinary mission statement on better care for patients with colon and rectal cancer in Europe

Background: Care for patients with colon and rectal cancer has improved in the last twenty years however still considerable variation exists in cancer management and outcome between European countries. Therefore, EURECCA, which is the acronym of European Registration of cancer care, is aiming at defining core treatment strategies and developing a European audit structure in order to improve the quality of care for all patients with colon and rectal cancer. In December 2012 the first multidisciplinary consensus conference about colon and rectum was held looking for multidisciplinary consensus. The expert panel consisted of representatives of European scientific organisations involved in cancer care of patients with colon and rectal cancer and representatives of national colorectal registries. Methods: The expert panel had delegates of the European Society of Surgical Oncology (ESSO), European Society for Radiotherapy & Oncology (ESTRO), European Society of Pathology (ESP), European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), European Society of Radiology (ESR), European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP), European CanCer Organisation (ECCO), European Oncology Nursing Society (EONS) and the European Colorectal Cancer Patient Organisation (EuropaColon), as well as delegates from national registries or audits. Experts commented and voted on the two web-based online voting rounds before the meeting (between 4th and 25th October and between the 20th November and 3rd December 2012) as well as one online round after the meeting (4th20th March 2013) and were invited to lecture on the subjects during the meeting (13th15th December 2012). The sentences in the consensus document were available during the meeting and a televoting round during the conference by all participants was performed. All sentences that were voted on are available on the EURECCA website www.canceraudit.eu. The consensus document was divided in sections describing evidence based algorithms of diagnostics, pathology, surgery, medical oncology, radiotherapy, and follow-up where applicable for treatment of colon cancer, rectal cancer and stage IV separately. Consensus was achieved using the Delphi method. Results: The total number of the voted sentences was 465. All chapters were voted on by at least 75% of the experts. Of the 465 sentences, 84% achieved large consensus, 6% achieved moderate consensus, and 7% resulted in minimum consensus. Only 3% was disagreed by more than 50% of the members. Conclusions: It is feasible to achieve European Consensus on key diagnostic and treatment issues using the Delphi method. This consensus embodies the expertise of professionals from all disciplines involved in the care for patients with colon and rectal cancer. Diagnostic and treatment algorithms were developed to implement the current evidence and to define core treatment guidance for multidisciplinary team management of colon and rectal cancer throughout Europe.

Recent patterns in gastric cancer: a global overview.

Until the mid-1990s, gastric cancer has been the first cause of cancer death worldwide, although rates had been declining for several decades and gastric cancer has become a relatively rare cancer in North America and in most Northern and Western Europe, but not in Eastern Europe, Russia and selected areas of Central and South America or East Asia. We analyzed gastric cancer mortality in Europe and other areas of the world from 1980 to 2005 using joinpoint regression analysis, and provided updated site-specific incidence rates from 51 selected registries. Over the last decade, the annual percent change (APC) in mortality rate was around -3, -4% for the major European countries. The APC were similar for the Republic of Korea (APC = -4.3%), Australia (-3.7%), the USA (-3.6%), Japan (-3.5%), Ukraine (-3%) and the Russian Federation (-2.8%). In Latin America, the decline was less marked, but constant with APC around -1.6% in Chile and Brazil, -2.3% in Argentina and Mexico and -2.6% in Colombia. Cancers in the fundus and pylorus are more common in high incidence and mortality areas and have been declining more than cardia gastric cancer. Steady downward trends persist in gastric cancer mortality worldwide even in middle aged population, and hence further appreciable declines are likely in the near future.

Valproic acid monotherapy in pregnancy and major congenital malformations.

BACKGROUND: The use of valproic acid in the first trimester of pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of spina bifida, but data on the risks of other congenital malformations are limited. METHODS: We first combined data from eight published cohort studies (1565 pregnancies in which the women were exposed to valproic acid, among which 118 major malformations were observed) and identified 14 malformations that were significantly more common among the offspring of women who had received valproic acid during the first trimester. We then assessed the associations between use of valproic acid during the first trimester and these 14 malformations by performing a case-control study with the use of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) antiepileptic-study database, which is derived from population-based congenital-anomaly registries. Registrations (i.e., pregnancy outcomes with malformations included in EUROCAT) with any of these 14 malformations were compared with two control groups, one consisting of infants with malformations not previously linked to valproic acid use (control group 1), and one consisting of infants with chromosomal abnormalities (control group 2). The data set included 98,075 live births, stillbirths, or terminations with malformations among 3.8 million births in 14 European countries from 1995 through 2005. RESULTS: Exposure to valproic acid monotherapy was recorded for a total of 180 registrations, with 122 registrations in the case group, 45 in control group 1, and 13 in control group 2. As compared with no use of an antiepileptic drug during the first trimester (control group 1), use of valproic acid monotherapy was associated with significantly increased risks for 6 of the 14 malformations under consideration; the adjusted odds ratios were as follows: spina bifida, 12.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7 to 20.7); atrial septal defect, 2.5 (95% CI, 1.4 to 4.4); cleft palate, 5.2 (95% CI, 2.8 to 9.9); hypospadias, 4.8 (95% CI, 2.9 to 8.1); polydactyly, 2.2 (95% CI, 1.0 to 4.5); and craniosynostosis, 6.8 (95% CI, 1.8 to 18.8). Results for exposure to valproic acid were similar to results for exposure to other antiepileptic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The use of valproic acid monotherapy in the first trimester was associated with significantly increased risks of several congenital malformations, as compared with no use of antiepileptic drugs or with use of other antiepileptic drugs.

Prevalence, prenatal diagnosis and clinical features of oculo-auriculo-vertebral spectrum: a registry-based study in Europe.

Oculo-auriculo-vertebral spectrum is a complex developmental disorder characterised mainly by anomalies of the ear, hemifacial microsomia, epibulbar dermoids and vertebral anomalies. The aetiology is largely unknown, and the epidemiological data are limited and inconsistent. We present the largest population-based epidemiological study to date, using data provided by the large network of congenital anomalies registries in Europe. The study population included infants diagnosed with oculo-auriculo-vertebral spectrum during the 1990-2009 period from 34 registries active in 16 European countries. Of the 355 infants diagnosed with oculo-auriculo-vertebral spectrum, there were 95.8% (340/355) live born, 0.8% (3/355) fetal deaths, 3.4% (12/355) terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly and 1.5% (5/340) neonatal deaths. In 18.9%, there was prenatal detection of anomaly/anomalies associated with oculo-auriculo-vertebral spectrum, 69.7% were diagnosed at birth, 3.9% in the first week of life and 6.1% within 1 year of life. Microtia (88.8%), hemifacial microsomia (49.0%) and ear tags (44.4%) were the most frequent anomalies, followed by atresia/stenosis of external auditory canal (25.1%), diverse vertebral (24.3%) and eye (24.3%) anomalies. There was a high rate (69.5%) of associated anomalies of other organs/systems. The most common were congenital heart defects present in 27.8% of patients. The prevalence of oculo-auriculo-vertebral spectrum, defined as microtia/ear anomalies and at least one major characteristic anomaly, was 3.8 per 100,000 births. Twinning, assisted reproductive techniques and maternal pre-pregnancy diabetes were confirmed as risk factors. The high rate of different associated anomalies points to the need of performing an early ultrasound screening in all infants born with this disorder.

An international registry on autoinflammatory diseases: the Eurofever experience.

OBJECTIVE: To report on the demographic data from the first 18 months of enrollment to an international registry on autoinflammatory diseases in the context of the Eurofever project. METHODS: A web-based registry collecting baseline and clinical information on autoinflammatory diseases and related conditions is available in the member area of the PRINTO web-site. Anonymised data were collected with standardised forms. RESULTS: 1880 (M:F=916:964) individuals from 67 centers in 31 countries have been entered in the Eurofever registry. Most of the patients (1388; 74%), reside in western Europe, 294 (16%) in the eastern and southern Mediterranean region (Turkey, Israel, North Africa), 106 (6%) in eastern Europe, 54 in Asia, 27 in South America and 11 in Australia. In total 1049 patients with a clinical diagnosis of a monogenic autoinflammatory diseases have been enrolled; genetic analysis was performed in 993 patients (95%): 703 patients have genetically confirmed disease and 197 patients are heterozygous carriers of mutations in genes that are mutated in patients with recessively inherited autoinflammatory diseases. The median diagnosis delay was 7.3 years (range 0.3-76), with a clear reduction in patients born after the identification of the first gene associated with autoinflammatory diseases in 1997. CONCLUSIONS: A shared online registry for patients with autoinflammatory diseases is available and enrollment is ongoing. Currently, there are data available for analysis on clinical presentation, disease course, and response to treatment, and to perform large scale comparative studies between different conditions.

Systematic surgical closure of patent foramen ovale in selected patients with cerebrovascular events due to paradoxical embolism. Early results of a preliminary study.

OBJECTIVE: To define therapeutic strategy for management of patients with ischemic stroke due to a high probability of paradoxical embolism through a Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO). METHODS: Since 1988 all consecutive patients with cerebrovascular events and PFO from the Stroke Registry of our population-based primary-care center are prospectively studied and followed. Since 1992, among 118 patients with cryptogenic embolic brain infarct or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and PFO, 32 consecutive patients younger than 60 years who presented at least two of the following criteria were admitted for surgery: history of Valsalva strain before stroke (11); multiple clinical events (13); multiple infarcts on brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) (15); atrial septal aneurysm (ASA) (16); large right-to-left shunt (> 50 microbubbles) (12). RESULTS: Operative time 135' +/- 33'. CPB time 34' +/- 14'. Aortic crossclamping time 16' +/- 6'. Post-operative bleeding 485 +/- 170 ml. No homologous blood transfusion required. No neurological, cardiac or renal complications. All patients were followed-up corresponding to a cumulative time of 601 patient-months. This revealed no recurrent vascular events nor silent new brain lesions on brain MRI. Systematic simultaneous contrast Trans Esophageal Echocardiography (TEE)-Trans Cranial Doppler showed a small residual interatrial shunt in two patients. CONCLUSION: Surgical closure of a patent foramen ovale can be accomplished with very low morbidity and reduce efficiently the risk of stroke recurrence. It seems to be the option of choice in selected patients with a higher (> 1.5%/year) risk of stroke recurrence.

Childhood cancer and nuclear power plants in Switzerland: a census-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies on childhood cancer and nuclear power plants (NPPs) produced conflicting results. We used a cohort approach to examine whether residence near NPPs was associated with leukaemia or any childhood cancer in Switzerland. METHODS: We computed person-years at risk for children aged 0-15 years born in Switzerland from 1985 to 2009, based on the Swiss censuses 1990 and 2000 and identified cancer cases from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. We geo-coded place of residence at birth and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing the risk of cancer in children born <5 km, 5-10 km and 10-15 km from the nearest NPP with children born >15 km away, using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We included 2925 children diagnosed with cancer during 21 117 524 person-years of follow-up; 953 (32.6%) had leukaemia. Eight and 12 children diagnosed with leukaemia at ages 0-4 and 0-15 years, and 18 and 31 children diagnosed with any cancer were born <5 km from a NPP. Compared with children born >15 km away, the IRRs (95% CI) for leukaemia in 0-4 and 0-15 year olds were 1.20 (0.60-2.41) and 1.05 (0.60-1.86), respectively. For any cancer, corresponding IRRs were 0.97 (0.61-1.54) and 0.89 (0.63-1.27). There was no evidence of a dose-response relationship with distance (P > 0.30). Results were similar for residence at diagnosis and at birth, and when adjusted for potential confounders. Results from sensitivity analyses were consistent with main results. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide cohort study found little evidence of an association between residence near NPPs and the risk of leukaemia or any childhood cancer.

Evaluation of prenatal diagnosis of associated congenital heart diseases by fetal ultrasonographic examination in Europe.

Ultrasound scans in the mid trimester of pregnancy are now a routine part of antenatal care in most European countries. With the assistance of Registries of Congenital Anomalies a study was undertaken in Europe. The objective of the study was to evaluate prenatal detection of congenital heart defects (CHD) by routine ultrasonographic examination of the fetus. All congenital malformations suspected prenatally and all congenital malformations, including chromosome anomalies, confirmed at birth were identified from the Congenital Malformation Registers, including 20 registers from the following European countries: Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Spain, Switzerland, The Netherlands, UK and Ukrainia. These registries follow the same methodology. The study period was 1996-1998, 709 030 births were covered, and 8126 cases with congenital malformations were registered. If more than one cardiac malformation was present the case was coded as complex cardiac malformation. CHD were subdivided into 'isolated' when only a cardiac malformation was present and 'associated' when at least one other major extra cardiac malformation was present. The associated CHD were subdivided into chromosomal, syndromic non-chromosomal and multiple. The study comprised 761 associated CHD including 282 cases with multiple malformations, 375 cases with chromosomal anomalies and 104 cases with non-chromosomal syndromes. The proportion of prenatal diagnosis of associated CHD varied in relation to the ultrasound screening policies from 17.9% in countries without routine screening (The Netherlands and Denmark) to 46.0% in countries with only one routine fetal scan and 55.6% in countries with two or three routine fetal scans. The prenatal detection rate of chromosomal anomalies was 40.3% (151/375 cases). This rate for recognized syndromes and multiply malformed with CHD was 51.9% (54/104 cases) and 48.6% (137/282 cases), respectively; 150/229 Down syndrome (65.8%) were livebirths. Concerning the syndromic cases, the detection rate of deletion 22q11, situs anomalies and VATER association was 44.4%, 64.7% and 46.6%, respectively. In conclusion, the present study shows large regional variations in the prenatal detection rate of CHD with the highest rates in European regions with three screening scans. Prenatal diagnosis of CHD is significantly higher if associated malformations are present. Cardiac defects affecting the size of the ventricles have the highest detection rate. Mean gestational age at discovery was 20-24 weeks for the majority of associated cardiac defects.

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

Trends in risk factors, patterns and causes in hospitalized strokes over 25 years: The Lausanne Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The Lausanne Stroke Registry includes, from 1979, all patients admitted to the department of Neurology of the Lausanne University Hospital with the diagnosis of first clinical stroke. Using the Lausanne Stroke Registry, we aimed to determine trends in risk factors, causes, localization and inhospital mortality over 25 years in hospitalized stroke patients. METHODS: We assessed temporal trends in stroke patients characteristics through the following consecutive periods: 1979-1987, 1988-1995 and 1996-2003. Age-adjusted cardiovascular risk factors, etiologies, stroke localizations and mortality were compared between the three periods. RESULTS: Overall, 5,759 patients were included. Age was significantly different among the analyzed periods (p < 0.001), showing an increment in older patients throughout time. After adjustment for age, hypercholesterolemia increased (p < 0.001), as opposed to cigarette smoking (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.001) and diabetes and hyperglycemia (p < 0.001). In patients with ischemic strokes, there were significant changes in the distribution of causes with an increase in cardioembolic strokes (p < 0.001), and in the localization of strokes with an increase in entire middle cerebral artery (MCA) and posterior circulation strokes together with a decrease in superficial middle cerebral artery stroke (p < 0.001). In patients with hemorrhagic strokes, the thalamic localizations increased, whereas the proportion of striatocapsular hemorrhage decreased (p = 0.022). Except in the older patient group, the mortality rate decreased. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows major trends in the characteristics of stroke patients admitted to a department of neurology over a 25-year time span, which may result from referral biases, development of acute stroke management and possibly from the evolution of cerebrovascular risk factors.

In-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing early surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis.

IMPORTANCE: There are limited prospective, controlled data evaluating survival in patients receiving early surgery vs medical therapy for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). OBJECTIVE: To determine the in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with PVE who undergo valve replacement during index hospitalization compared with patients who receive medical therapy alone, after controlling for survival and treatment selection bias. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006 in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), a prospective, multinational, observational cohort of patients with infective endocarditis. Patients hospitalized with definite right- or left-sided PVE were included in the analysis. We evaluated the effect of treatment assignment on mortality, after adjusting for biases using a Cox proportional hazards model that included inverse probability of treatment weighting and surgery as a time-dependent covariate. The cohort was stratified by probability (propensity) for surgery, and outcomes were compared between the treatment groups within each stratum. INTERVENTIONS: Valve replacement during index hospitalization (early surgery) vs medical therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1025 patients with PVE, 490 patients (47.8%) underwent early surgery and 535 individuals (52.2%) received medical therapy alone. Compared with medical therapy, early surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in the unadjusted analysis and after controlling for treatment selection bias (in-hospital mortality: hazard ratio [HR], 0.44 [95% CI, 0.38-0.52] and lower 1-year mortality: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.49-0.67]). The lower mortality associated with surgery did not persist after adjustment for survivor bias (in-hospital mortality: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.76-1.07] and 1-year mortality: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). Subgroup analysis indicated a lower in-hospital mortality with early surgery in the highest surgical propensity quintile (21.2% vs 37.5%; P = .03). At 1-year follow-up, the reduced mortality with surgery was observed in the fourth (24.8% vs 42.9%; P = .007) and fifth (27.9% vs 50.0%; P = .007) quintiles of surgical propensity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prosthetic valve endocarditis remains associated with a high 1-year mortality rate. After adjustment for differences in clinical characteristics and survival bias, early valve replacement was not associated with lower mortality compared with medical therapy in the overall cohort. Further studies are needed to define the effect and timing of surgery in patients with PVE who have indications for surgery.

Variation in performance in low-volume mammography screening programmes: experience from Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Reading volume and mammography screening performance appear positively correlated. Quality and effectiveness were compared across low-volume screening programmes targeting relatively small populations and operating under the same decentralised healthcare system. Except for accreditation of 2nd readers (restrictive vs non-restrictive strategy), these organised programmes had similar screening regimen/procedures and duration, which maximises comparability. Variation in performance and its determinants were explored in order to improve mammography practice and optimise screening performance. METHODS: Circa 200,000 screens performed between 1999 and 2006 (4 rounds) in 3 longest standing Swiss cantonal programmes (of Vaud, Geneva and Valais) were assessed. Indicators of quality and effectiveness were assessed according to European standards. Interval cancers were identified through linkage with cancer registries records. RESULTS: Swiss programmes met most European standards of performance with a substantial, favourable cancer stage shift. Up to a two-fold variation occurred for several performance indicators. In subsequent rounds, compared with programmes (Vaud and Geneva) that applied a restrictive selection strategy for 2nd readers, proportions of in situ lesions and of small cancers (≤1cm) were one third lower and halved, respectively, and the proportion of advanced lesions (stage II+) nearly 50% higher in the programme without a restrictive selection strategy. Discrepancy in second-year proportional incidence of interval cancers appears to be multicausal. CONCLUSION: Differences in performance could partly be explained by a selective strategy for second readers and a prior experience in service screening, but not by the levels of opportunistic screening and programme attendance. This study provides clues for enhancing mammography screening performance in low-volume programmes.

El Registre General d'entrada i sortida de documents. Estudi d’un cas: El Registre General de l'Ajuntament de Santa Perpètua de Mogoda

El treball de recerca del Màster en Arxivística i Gestió de Documents de l’ESAGED (Escola Superior d’Arxivística i Gestió de Documents) ha consistit en l’estudi i l’avaluació del registre general d’entrades i sortides de documents de l’Ajuntament de Santa Perpètua de Mogoda, en fase de producció. A més d’estudiar-ne el context extern i intern s’han auditat les funcionalitats de l’eina tecnològica que gestiona el Registre General. S’explica el desenvolupament de la recerca i els resultats obtinguts. Finalment, es presenten les propostes de millora en fase de producció a fi d’augmentar l’autenticitat i la integritats de les dades, i també unes propostes de conservació del Registre General actual. Paraules clau: Registre General, preservació, base de dades, assentaments, ajuntament, classificació, gestió de documents, dades, informació, fiabilitat, integritat, autenticitat.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome: a population-based study on prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, clinical features, and survival in Europe.

Meckel-Gruber Syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive lethal ciliopathy characterized by the triad of cystic renal dysplasia, occipital encephalocele and postaxial polydactyly. We present the largest population-based epidemiological study to date using data provided by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) network. The study population consisted of 191 cases of MKS identified between January 1990 and December 2011 in 34 European registries. The mean prevalence was 2.6 per 100 000 births in a subset of registries with good ascertainment. The prevalence was stable over time, but regional differences were observed. There were 145 (75.9%) terminations of pregnancy after prenatal diagnosis, 13 (6.8%) fetal deaths, 33 (17.3%) live births. In addition to cystic kidneys (97.7%), encephalocele (83.8%) and polydactyly (87.3%), frequent features include other central nervous system anomalies (51.4%), fibrotic/cystic changes of the liver (65.5% of cases with post mortem examination) and orofacial clefts (31.8%). Various other anomalies were present in 64 (37%) patients. As nowadays most patients are detected very early in pregnancy when liver or kidney changes may not yet be developed or may be difficult to assess, none of the anomalies should be considered obligatory for the diagnosis. Most cases (90.2%) are diagnosed prenatally at 14.3±2.6 (range 11-36) gestational weeks and pregnancies are mainly terminated, reducing the number of LB to one-fifth of the total prevalence rate. Early diagnosis is important for timely counseling of affected couples regarding the option of pregnancy termination and prenatal genetic testing in future pregnancies.

Perusterveydenhuollon ja erikoissairaanhoidon käytön seuranta ja ennakointi kuntanäkökulmasta

Follow-up of utilisation and prediction of primary health care and hospital care from the municipality point of view. Planning, follow-up, and evaluation of primary health care within municipality entail comprehensive information about factors that influence health. In addition to populationbased research, various statistical data and registries serve as sources of information. The present study examined utilisation of primary health care and hospital care with the existing databases, registries, and categorization of Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) from the municipality (purchaser) point of view. Research involving the cases of Paimio, Sauvo, and Turku as examples of municipalities pointed out that, even in the small municipalities, it is possible to assess and predict health services to be offered to the inhabitants by following databases and registries. Health-related databases and registries include a plenty of possible uses that have not adequately been employed at the level of municipality. Descriptive futures research and community analysis formed the framework of the study. Descriptive futures research may be used to establish predictions based on past developmental traditions, and quantitative time trend analyses may be employed to make estimations about future events. Community analysis will assist in making conclusions about population- based health care needs, in assessing the functionality or effectiveness of the health care system, and in appropriately targeting limited resources. The aim of the present study was to describe the health service profile so that the arrangements and planning of health services as well as the contract negotiations of hospital care become easier within municipalities. Another aim was to assess the application of Hilmo (registry for posting hospital care periods), Aitta and Sotka (statistical databases) for the purposes of resource planning in the procurement of hospital care. A third aim was to evaluate how the system of the DRGs adapts in the prediction of retaining health services within short (1-year), intermediate (5-year) and long range (10-15-year) intervals. The findings indicated that the follow-up of primary health care utilisation combined with follow-up of hospital care utilisation allows municipalities to plan and predict health services when databases are applied. Information about the past contacts with the databases has indicated that the health care culture and incidence of disease change rather slowly in the area of investigation. For the purposes of health care research, it is recommended that methods of application used in making predictions about health care utilisation need to be further developed