Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.

High prevalence of multidrug-tolerant bacteria and associated antimicrobial resistance genes isolated from ornamental fish and their carriage water

Background: Antimicrobials are used to directly control bacterial infections in pet (ornamental) fish and are routinely added to the water these fish are shipped in to suppress the growth of potential pathogens during transport. Methodology/Principal Findings: To assess the potential effects of this sustained selection pressure, 127 Aeromonas spp. isolated from warm and cold water ornamental fish species were screened for tolerance to 34 antimicrobials. Representative isolates were also examined for the presence of 54 resistance genes by a combination of miniaturized microarray and conventional PCR. Forty-seven of 94 Aeromonas spp. isolates recovered from tropical ornamental fish and their carriage water were tolerant to >= 15 antibiotics, representing seven or more different classes of antimicrobial. The quinolone and fluoroquinolone resistance gene, qnrS2, was detected at high frequency (37% tested recent isolates were positive by PCR). Class 1 integrons, IncA/C broad host range plasmids and a range of other antibiotic resistance genes, including floR, blaTEM21, tet(A), tet(D), tet(E), qacE2, sul1, and a number of different dihydrofolate reductase and aminoglycoside transferase coding genes were also detected in carriage water samples and bacterial isolates. Conclusions: These data suggest that ornamental fish and their carriage water act as a reservoir for both multi-resistant bacteria and resistance genes.

Consumer purchasing behaviour towards fish and seafood products: patterns and insights from a sample of international studies

The present systematic review was performed to assess consumer purchasing behaviour towards fish and seafood products in the wide context of developed countries. Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar engines were used to search the existing literature and a total of 49 studies were identified for inclusion. These studies investigated consumer purchasing behaviour towards a variety of fish and seafood products, in different countries and by means of different methodological approaches. In particular, the review identifies and discusses the main drivers and barriers of fish consumption as well as consumers’ preferences about the most relevant attributes of fish and seafood products providing useful insights for both practitioners and policy makers. Finally, main gaps of the existing literature and possible trajectories for future research are also discussed.

Relationship between global structural parameters and Enzyme Commission hierarchy: Implications for function prediction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Markov random field model for combining optimum-path forest classifiers using decision graphs and game strategy approach

The research on multiple classifiers systems includes the creation of an ensemble of classifiers and the proper combination of the decisions. In order to combine the decisions given by classifiers, methods related to fixed rules and decision templates are often used. Therefore, the influence and relationship between classifier decisions are often not considered in the combination schemes. In this paper we propose a framework to combine classifiers using a decision graph under a random field model and a game strategy approach to obtain the final decision. The results of combining Optimum-Path Forest (OPF) classifiers using the proposed model are reported, obtaining good performance in experiments using simulated and real data sets. The results encourage the combination of OPF ensembles and the framework to design multiple classifier systems. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Reproductive migration of fish and movement in a series of reservoirs in the Upper Parana River basin, Brazil

AbstractThis study evaluates the effectiveness of two fish passes at two hydropower dams (Canoas I and II) in the Upper Parana basin, which form part of a cascade of three reservoirs. Fish from 12 migratory species (3089 specimens) were captured during their ascending, reproductive migration and were tagged with hydrostatic tags. The recapture data (294 specimens over two consecutive years) showed that there is a strong tendency for the maintenance of ascending migration through reservoirs with fish passes but with differences in migratory activity within the same species. No eggs, larvae or juveniles of these species were found in samples collected over 5 years in the reservoirs above the fish passes. These data suggest that fish passes have contributed to the restoration of the migratory routes of adult fish but that in the absence of suitable spawning or nursery habitats for these species; they probably act as ecological traps and do not contribute to the recruitment of the species.

Relationship between global structural parameters and Enzyme Commission hierarchy: Implications for function prediction

In protein databases there is a substantial number of proteins structurally determined but without function annotation. Understanding the relationship between function and structure can be useful to predict function on a large scale. We have analyzed the similarities in global physicochemical parameters for a set of enzymes which were classified according to the four Enzyme Commission (EC) hierarchical levels. Using relevance theory we introduced a distance between proteins in the space of physicochemical characteristics. This was done by minimizing a cost function of the metric tensor built to reflect the EC classification system. Using an unsupervised clustering method on a set of 1025 enzymes, we obtained no relevant clustering formation compatible with EC classification. The distance distributions between enzymes from the same EC group and from different EC groups were compared by histograms. Such analysis was also performed using sequence alignment similarity as a distance. Our results suggest that global structure parameters are not sufficient to segregate enzymes according to EC hierarchy. This indicates that features essential for function are rather local than global. Consequently, methods for predicting function based on global attributes should not obtain high accuracy in main EC classes prediction without relying on similarities between enzymes from training and validation datasets. Furthermore, these results are consistent with a substantial number of studies suggesting that function evolves fundamentally by recruitment, i.e., a same protein motif or fold can be used to perform different enzymatic functions and a few specific amino acids (AAs) are actually responsible for enzyme activity. These essential amino acids should belong to active sites and an effective method for predicting function should be able to recognize them. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of chromosomal abnormalities by cIg-FISH and association with proliferative and apoptotic indexes in multiple myeloma

Eighty-six newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) patients from a public hospital of São Paulo (Brazil) were evaluated by cIg-FISH for the presence of del(13)(q14), t(4;14)(p16.3;q32) and del(17)(p13). These abnormalities were observed in 46.5, 9.3, and 7.0% of the patients, respectively. In order to identify the possible role of del(13)(q14) in the physiopathology of MM, we investigated the association between this abnormality and the proliferative and apoptotic indexes of plasma cells. When cases demonstrating t(4;14)(p16.3;q32) and del(17)(p13) were excluded from the analysis, we observed a trend towards a positive correlation between the proportion of cells carrying del(13)(q14) and plasma cell proliferation, determined by Ki-67 expression (r = 0.23, P = 0.06). On the other hand, no correlation between the proportion of cells carrying del(13)(q14) and apoptosis, determined by annexin-V staining, was detected (r = 0.05, P = 0.69). In general, patients carrying del(13)(q14) did not have lower survival than patients without del(13)(q14) (P = 0.15), but patients with more than 80% of cells carrying del(13)(q14) showed a lower overall survival (P = 0.033). These results suggest that, when del(13)(q14) is observed in a high proportion of malignant cells, it may have a role in determining MM prognosis. Another finding was a statistically significant lower overall survival of patients with t(4;14)(p16.3;q32) (P = 0.026). In the present study, almost half the patients with t(4;14)(p16.3;q32) died just after diagnosis, before starting treatment. This fact suggests that, in São Paulo, there may be even more patients with this chromosomal abnormality, but they probably die before being diagnosed due to unfavorable socioeconomic conditions. This could explain the low prevalence of this chromosomal abnormality observed in the present study.

Fidelity and game-based technology in management education

This study explores educational technology and management education by analyzing fidelity in game-based management education interventions. A sample of 31 MBA students was selected to help answer the research question: To what extent do MBA students tend to recognize specific game-based academic experiences, in terms of fidelity, as relevant to their managerial performance? Two distinct game-based interventions (BG1 and BG2) with key differences in fidelity levels were explored: BG1 presented higher physical and functional fidelity levels and lower psychological fidelity levels. Hypotheses were tested with data from the participants, collected shortly after their experiences, related to the overall perceived quality of game-based interventions. The findings reveal a higher overall perception of quality towards BG1: (a) better for testing strategies, (b) offering better business and market models, (c) based on a pace that better stimulates learning, and (d) presenting a fidelity level that better supports real world performance. This study fosters the conclusion that MBA students tend to recognize, to a large extent, that specific game-based academic experiences are relevant and meaningful to their managerial development, mostly with heightened fidelity levels of adopted artifacts. Agents must be ready and motivated to explore the new, to try and err, and to learn collaboratively in order to perform.