Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Sexual function after suburethral sling removal for dyspareunia

INTRODUCTION: Impact on sexual function has received little attention in the medical literature for a long time. Because of the site of insertion of permanent tension free vaginal tape (TVT) the G spot might be affected or the tape might interfere with arousal and sensory stimulation. Recent studies have reported varying degrees of sexual impairment after TVT insertion ranging from 0% to 15% including dyspareunia. AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate sexual function before and after suburethral sling removal due to postoperative female de novo dyspareunia. As a secondary outcome, general patients' satisfaction with their overall continence situation was assessed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between December 2005 and December 2007, we included 18 female patients who complained of de novo dyspareunia after suburethral sling insertion for urinary stress incontinence. All patients filled in an FSFI questionnaire prior to sling removal and at 3 months postoperatively. Additionally, all women were asked to estimate their general satisfaction regarding their continence situation using a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) from 0 to 10, with 0 being the least satisfying situation and 10 being the most satisfying situation. All patients underwent gynaecological examination including ICS-pelvic organ prolapse staging (ICS-POP score). RESULTS: Of the 18 slings, ten were transobturator tapes (6 x TVT-O, 2 x Monarch, 2 x unknown) and eight were retropubic tapes (7 x TVT, 1 x SPARC). Desire, arousal, lubrication, satisfaction, and pain improved statistically significant. Orgasm scores were low with median scoring of 1.5 scores before and 1.0 scores after sling removal, and they did not change significantly after sling removal. The satisfaction rate deteriorated from a median of 7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3-7.7) to a median of 4 (95% CI 3.7-5.1; p=0.99) but not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual function in patients with de novo dyspareunia is likely to improve after sling removal but not in all domains. Bladder function may deteriorate.

Scintigraphic and radiographic appearance of the sacroiliac region in horses with gait abnormalities or poor performance

Nuclear bone scintigraphy is commonly used in the diagnosis of sacroiliac disease in horses. The aim of the present retrospective study was to determine if there was an association between radiopharmaceutical uptake pattern and radiographic appearance of the sacroiliac region in horses. Seventy-nine horses undergoing bone scintigraphy with Tc-99 m-HDP and radiography of the pelvis because of lameness or poor performance were studied. Subjective and semiquantitative methods were used to characterize and compare radiopharmaceutical uptake between horses. Ventrodorsal radiographs of the region were obtained and were evaluated. Subjectively, 70 horses (88.6%) had an abnormal uptake pattern. In nine horses, the sacroiliac region was normal (11.4%). There was no association between subjective evaluation of the scintigraphic images and semiquantitative methods. There was a significant association between radiopharmaceutical uptake and conformation (T- or Y-like form) and shape (butterfly-, wing-, leaf-, or horn-like) of the sacrum. The radiopharmaceutical uptake of the tubera sacralia was significantly higher in males (left side P = 0.002, right side P = 0.003). In conclusion, the conformation of the sacrum may play an important role in the scintigraphic appearance and may be the cause of increased radiopharmaceutical uptake.

Falkland Island English

This chapter examines some of the grammatical variability and non-standardness found in the English of the Falkland Islands. The Falklands are an archipelago of over 700 islands located in the western South Atlantic Ocean, 480km off the east coast of Argentina. Although the population is small – around 3000 - the islands cover an area of over 12000km2 – slightly larger than Jamaica and half the size of Wales, making them, after Greenland, the most sparsely populated political entity in the world. In political terms, the Falklands are an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom. In contrast to the rural isolated image that the Falklands perhaps conjure up, the community is, in demographic terms, an urban and diverse one. Over 85% of the population living in the capital Stanley. The 2006 census (Government of the Falkland Islands 2007: 6) shows that 55% of the population were not born on the Islands, with the largest migrant groups coming from the UK, St Helena (another British Overseas Territory, located in the eastern South Atlantic), Chile and Australia. It also highlighted the fact that people born in 62 different countries were resident on the islands at the time (Pascoe and Pepper 2008: 38). By way of a comparison, only Monaco and Andorra, in Europe, have a higher proportion of their populations made up of migrants. In addition to the local Falkland population, there is a large military presence on the islands at the Royal Airforce Base at Mount Pleasant, 50km south-west of Stanley. The Head of State is the monarch of the UK, who is represented on the islands by a governor. The democratically elected 11-member Legislative Assembly is responsible for day-to-day government of the islands. The Falklands are perhaps most famous because of their 74 day occupation by Argentina in 1982. It is not appropriate here to go into detail about the dispute between the UK and Argentina about the sovereignty of the Islands. What is undisputed is that there has been a continuous Anglophone speech community on the islands since the early 1830s, making it one of the most recently developed ‘Inner Circle’ (Kachru 1985) Englishes in the world. This chapter examines the grammatical characteristics of Falkland Island English, drawn from a transcribed corpus of over 500,000 words of informal conversational speech, collected by Andrea Sudbury both in Stanley and in ‘Camp’ (the local name for the rest of the islands) (see Sudbury 2000, 2001 for more details about the methods used in the survey).

Novel oxazolo-oxazole derivatives of FTY720 reduce endothelial cell permeability, immune cell chemotaxis and symptoms of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in mice

The immunomodulatory FTY720 (fingolimod) is presently approved for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. It is a prodrug that acts by modulating sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) receptor signaling. In this study, we have developed and characterized two novel oxazolo-oxazole derivatives of FTY720, ST-968 and the oxy analog ST-1071, which require no preceding activating phosphorylation, and proved to be active in intact cells and triggered S1P1 and S1P3, but not S1P2, receptor internalization as a result of receptor activation. Functionally, ST-968 and ST-1071 acted similar to FTY720 to abrogate S1P-triggered chemotaxis of mouse splenocytes, mouse T cells and human U937 cells, and reduced TNFa- and LPS-stimulated endothelial cell permeability. The compounds also reduced TNFα-induced ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 mRNA expression, but restored TNFα-mediated downregulation of PECAM-1 mRNA expression. In an in vivo setting, the application of ST-968 or ST-1071 to mice resulted in a reduction of blood lymphocytes and significantly reduced the clinical symptoms of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) in C57BL/6 mice comparable to FTY720 either by prophylactic or therapeutic treatment. In parallel to the reduced clinical symptoms, infiltration of immune cells in the brain was strongly reduced, and in isolated tissues of brain and spinal cord, the mRNA and protein expressions of ICAM-1 and VCAM-1, as well as of matrix metalloproteinase-9 were reduced by all compounds, whereas PECAM-1 and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase TIMP-1 were upregulated. In summary, the data suggest that these novel butterfly derivatives of FTY720 could have considerable implication for future therapies of multiple sclerosis and other autoimmune diseases.

Excited-State Structure, Vibrations, and Nonradiative Relaxation of Jet-Cooled 5-Fluorocytosine

The S0 → S1 vibronic spectrum and S1 state nonradiative relaxation of jet-cooled keto-amino 5-fluorocytosine (5FCyt) are investigated by two-color resonant two-photon ionization spectroscopy at 0.3 and 0.05 cm–1 resolution. The 000 rotational band contour is polarized in-plane, implying that the electronic transition is 1ππ*. The electronic transition dipole moment orientation and the changes of rotational constants agree closely with the SCS-CC2 calculated values for the 1ππ* (S1) transition of 5FCyt. The spectral region from 0 to 300 cm–1 is dominated by overtone and combination bands of the out-of-plane ν1′ (boat), ν2′ (butterfly), and ν3′ (HN–C6H twist) vibrations, implying that the pyrimidinone frame is distorted out-of-plane by the 1ππ* excitation, in agreement with SCS-CC2 calculations. The number of vibronic bands rises strongly around +350 cm–1; this is attributed to the 1ππ* state barrier to planarity that corresponds to the central maximum of the double-minimum out-of-plane vibrational potentials along the ν1′, ν2′, and ν3′ coordinates, which gives rise to a high density of vibronic excitations. At +1200 cm–1, rapid nonradiative relaxation (knr ≥ 1012 s–1) sets in, which we interpret as the height of the 1ππ* state barrier in front of the lowest S1/S0 conical intersection. This barrier in 5FCyt is 3 times higher than that in cytosine. The lifetimes of the ν′ = 0, 2ν1′, 2ν2′, 2ν1′ + 2ν2′, 4ν2′, and 2ν1′ + 4ν2′ levels are determined from Lorentzian widths fitted to the rotational band contours and are τ ≥ 75 ps for ν′ = 0, decreasing to τ ≥ 55 ps at the 2ν1′ + 4ν2′ level at +234 cm–1. These gas-phase lifetimes are twice those of S1 state cytosine and 10–100 times those of the other canonical nucleobases in the gas phase. On the other hand, the 5FCyt gas-phase lifetime is close to the 73 ps lifetime in room-temperature solvents. This lack of dependence on temperature and on the surrounding medium implies that the 5FCyt nonradiative relaxation from its S1 (1ππ*) state is essentially controlled by the same ∼1200 cm–1 barrier and conical intersection both in the gas phase and in solution.

Deutschland eine repräsentative Demokratie, eine constitutionelle Monarchie oder ein blos vollendeter, die Volksrechte und Freiheiten garantirender Bundesstaat? : Ein Versuch zum Verständniß und zur Lösung der schwierigen Frage ; hauptsächlich mittelst Aufklärung über das wahre Verhältniß zwischen Staat und Regierung, Staatsgewalt und Regierungs-Gewalt

Boberach: Überlegungen über verschiedene Staatsformen führen zum Schluß, daß Deutschland ein Bundesstaat aus konstitutionellen Einzelstaaten sein soll, in dem die Regierungsgewalt zwischen Österreich, Preußen und Bayern alle zwei Jahre alternieren könnte. Ein Senat aus Regierungsvertretern der Länder und eine Volkskammer aus direkten Wahlen sollen die Legislative bilden. Die deutschen Gebiete Österreichs könnten eine Sekundogenitur werden. - Wentzke: Theoretische Erörterungen. Das Proletariat ist nur durch Auswanderung zu befriedigen. In Deutschland bis jetzt drei Parteien: 1. für repräsentative Demokratie; 2. für konstitutionelle Monarchie; 3. für einen vollendeten Bundesstaat aus konstitutionellen Staaten. Gegen 1., weil hier die ganze Staatsgewalt in den Händen der gewählten, dem Volke fernstehenden Aristokratie liegt. Gegen 2., weil man nicht die volle Konsequenz ziehen und die Einzelstaaten nicht zu lediglich bürgerlichen Gesellschaften machen will. Außerdem ist der an die Spitze zu stellende Monarch auf friedlichem Wege gar nicht zu haben; gegen die theoretische Verfassungsmacherei. Der mächtigste Herrscher allein wäre der gegebene Mann; wir aber besitzen zwei solche Fürstenhäuser, und weder Österreich noch Preußen kann Deutschland entbehren. Daher nur möglich 3.; auch der alte Bund besaß schon Verpflichtungen, die hinüber führten vom Staatenbund zum zusammengesetzten Staat, zum Reich. Im neuen Bundesstaat bleibt Deutsch-Österreich beim Reiche, ev.[tl.] errichtet der Kaiser von Österreich hier eine Sekundogenitur. Stimmberechtigung der Einzelstaaten nach ihrer Seelenzahl. Staatsgewalt des Bundesstaats ausgeübt 1. im Senat, aus Vertretern der Landesregierung, halb so stark wie 2. die Volkskammer, aus direkten Wahlen. Übereinstimmung beider Kammern schafft Gesetzeskraft. Bundesgericht: aus 100 von der Volkskammer vorgeschlagenen Juristen wählt der Senat 50 Mitglieder. Regierungsgewalt von Östereich, Preußen, Baiern alle zwei Jahre wechselnd ausgeübt: Heerwesen und Auswärtiges, Garantie der Einzelverfassungen, Regelung der Auswanderung

The Demand for Power Diffusion: A Case Study of the 2005 Constitutional Referendum Voting in Kenya

Recent studies on the history of economic development demonstrate that concentration of power on a monarch or a ruling coalition impedes economic growth and that institutional changes that diffuse power, though beneficial to the society in general, are opposed by some social groups. In November 2005, Kenyans rejected a proposed constitution primarily because it did not reduce the powers of the executive to any significant degree. Using data of voting patterns in the constitutional referendum and following the rational choice framework, I estimate a model of the demand for power diffusion and demonstrate that groups voting decisions depend on expected gains and likelihood of monopolizing power. The results also reveal the importance of ethnic divisions in hindering the power diffusion process, and therefore the study establishes a channel through which ethnic fragmentation impacts on economic development.

Tutaque sit inter inprobos innocentia : aspectos teóricos e práticos sobre os limítes da autoridade régia no reino hispano-visigodo de Toledo segundo as fontes júridicas e conciliares do reinado de Chintila (636-640).

Las construcciones teóricas elaboradas a lo largo de la Antigüedad Tardía buscaban, en su gran mayoría, poner en destaque la autoridad y el poder que deberían ser ejercidos por el rey en el espacio geográfico de su reino. Además de la evidente herencia del pensamiento político clásico romano, que ya apuntaba la supremacía teórica del magistrado o del princeps respecto al cuerpo social y político, el modelo cristiano del princeps christianus sacratissimus, que se construye a partir del siglo IV, ofrecía la perspectiva de que el gobernante debería imponer las leyes para hacer valer la justicia a los inocentes. Tales ideas se mantuvieron en el reino hispanovisigodo de Toledo y para tanto tenemos indicios en las fuentes isidorianas, conciliares y leges antiquas. Sin embargo, la antitesis entre teoría y el ejercicio práctico del poder se presenta muy claramente en las disputas nobiliarias afectando directamente el poder del rey y todas sus atribuciones. Es el caso del reinado de Chintila (636-640), en el cuál la ley tenía como principal objetivo la protección de los grupos de apoyo político del monarca.

Physical oceanography from eight Seaglider missions in the Mediterranean Sea, Eastern Basin

In 2008, the Oceanography Center at the University of Cyprus acquired two underwater gliders in the framework of a nationally-managed infrastructure upgrade program. The gliders were purchased from the Seaglider Fabrication Center at the University of Washington. Both gliders are rated to 1000 m and carry a typical sensor payload: non-pumped conductivity-temperature-depth sensors (CTD), a dissolved oxygen sensor, an optical triplet to measure optical backscatter at 400 nm, 700 nm, and chlorophyll-a fluorescence. Since March of 2009, the gliders have been used in a long-term observing program of the Cypriot EEZ, and by September 2015, have covered more than 15300 km over ground and 3500 dive cycles in 940 glider days. Butterfly patterns have been flown in two configurations, either on the western or eastern side of the EEZ south of Cyprus. The glider endurance lines criss-cross the region in order to more accurately locate and investigate the mesoscale structures south of Cyprus, and in particular the Cyprus eddy which is often the dominant feature. Based on the near real time observations, the glider mission was sometimes altered in order to more fully sample the Cyprus eddy, or to locate its center or extent. A summary of the raw and processed data collected, and the quality control procedures are presented, in order for future users to take advantage of this unique data set.

Optimizing rabbit production under heat stress: cage density and cage size during fattening, and breeding system and water quality on rabbit does

The aim of this work was to evaluate different management strategies to optimize rabbit production under chronic heat stress. To achieve it, three trials were conducted. In the first trial, to find the optimal cage density in tropical very dry forest condition, were measured growth performance, mortality rate, injured animals and carcass performance over an initial population of 300 cross-breed rabbits of New Zealand, California, Butterfly, Dutch and Satin, weaned at 30 days (535 ± 8 g, standard error). Treatments evaluated were: 6, 12, 18 and 24 rabbits/m2 (3, 6, 9 and 12 rabbits/cage, respectively, each cage of 0.5 m2). The maximal temperature-humidity index indicated a severe heat stress from weaning to 2.2 kg body weight (experimental time). At the end of experimental period 10, 20, 30 and 30 rabbits from the treatments of 6, 12, 18 and 24 rabbits/m2, respectively, were slaughtered and carcass performance recorded. Average daily gain and feed intake decreased by 0.31 ± 0.070 and 1.20 ± 0.25 g, respectively, per each unit that the density increased at the beginning of the experiment (P = 0.001). It increased the length of the fattening period by 0.91 ± 0.16 d (P = 0.001) per each unit of increment of density. However, rabbit production (kg/m2) increased linear and quadratically with the density (P < 0.008). Animals housed at the highest density compared to the lower one tended to show a higher incidence of ringworm (68.9 vs 39.4%; P = 0.075), injured animals (16.8 vs 3.03%; P = 0.12) and mortality (20.5 vs 9.63%; P = 0.043). The proportion of scapular fat (P = 0.042) increased linearly with increasing levels of density. Increasing density reduced linearly dorsal length (P = 0.001), and reduced linear and quadratically drip loss percentage (P = 0.097 and 0.018, respectively). In the second trial, 46 nulliparous rabbit does (23 clipped and 23 unclipped) with a BW of 3.67 ± 0.05 kg (s.e.) were used to evaluate heat stress and circadian rhythms comparing unclipped and clipped rabbit does, and to study if a more extensive breeding system increase litters performance at weaning without impairing rabbit doe performance,. Rectal temperature, feed and water 4 intake were recorded for 24 h. Rabbit does were mated 7 d after circadian measurements, and randomly assigned to two breeding systems. Control (C): mated at 14 d after parturition + litter weaned at 35 d of age. Extensive (E): mate at 21 after parturition + litter weaned at 42 d of age. The first three cycles were evaluated concerning to rabbit doe and litter performance. Two hundred twenty eight weaned rabbits, were divided into two cage sizes: 0.5 and 0.25 m2 with same density (16 rabbit/m2) and growing performance was recorded. Farm and rectal temperatures were minimal and feed and water intake maximal during the night (P < 0.001). Unclipped rabbit does showed higher rectal temperature (P = 0.045) and lower feed intake respect to clipped does (P = 0.019) which suggest a lower heat stress in the latter. Kits weaned per litter was reduced by 33% (P=0.038) in C group. This reduction was more important in the 2nd and 3rd cycles compared to the first (P ≤ 0.054). Rabbit doe feed efficiency tended to decrease in E respect C group (P = 0.093), whereas it was impaired from the first to the third cycle by 48% (P = 0.014). Growing rabbits from the E group were heavier at weaning (by 38%. P < 0.001), showed a higher feed intake (+7.4%) and lower feed efficiency (-8.4%) throughout the fattening period (P ≤ 0.056) respect to C group. Cage size had minor influence in growing performance. In the third trial, forty five non pregnant and non lactating rabbit does (21 nulliparous and 24 multiparous) were assigned randomly to farm water and to potable water to study if a water quality improvement can affect positively rabbit doe response to heat stress during pregnancy and lactation. A transponder was implanted in each animal to record subcutaneous temperature at 07:30 and 14:30 h. Experimental period extended from pregnancy (with no lactation) to the next lactation (until day 28). Body temperature and milk production were recorded daily, and body condition, feed and water intake weekly. Water quality did not affect any trait (P ≥ 0.15). Pregnant rabbit does were classified as does that weaned (W: 47%), not weaned (NW: 44%) or those pregnant that did not deliver (NB: 9%). Body temperature and feed intake decreased during pregnancy (P ≤ 0.031), but water intake remained constant. In this period body temperature decreased with metabolic weight (P ≤ 0.009). In W and NW does, 5 from mating to birth energy and protein balance impaired (P≤0.011). Body temperature of W does tended to be the lowest (P ≤ 0.090). Pregnancy length and total number of kits born tended to be longer and higher in NW than in W does (P = 0.10 and 0.053, respectively). Kit mortality at birth and from birth to 14 d of lactation was high, being worse for NW than for W does (97 vs. 40%; P<0.001). Body temperature during lactation was maximal at day 12, and milk production increased it (P ≤ 0.025). . In conclusion, in our heat stress conditions densities higher than 18 rabbits/m2 (34 kg/m2) at the end of fattening, are not recommended despite cage size, gestation and lactation productivity impaired not only when lactation is extended and along successive reproductive cycles but also due to a reduced embryo/kit survival and finally water quality improvement did not attenuate negative effect of heat stress. RESUMEN El propósito de éste trabajo fue evaluar diferentes estrategias de manejo para optimizar la producción de conejos bajo estrés térmico. Para lo cual se desarrollaron tres experimentos. En el primer experimento, para encontrar el número óptimo de gazapos por m2 de jaula durante el cebo en condiciones de bosque muy seco tropical, se estudiaron los rendimientos durante el cebo, mortalidad, animales lesionados y rendimiento de la canal sobre una población inicial de 300 conejos mestizos de Nueva Zelanda, California, Mariposa, Holandés y Satin, destetados a los 30 días de edad (535 ± 8g, error estándar). Los tratamientos evaluados fueron: 6, 12, 18 y 24 conejos/m2 (3, 6, 9 y 12 conejos/jaula, respectivamente, en jaulas de 0.5 m2). Durante el período experimental (destete a 2.2 kg de peso vivo), se observaron valores de THI correspondientes con un estrés térmico severo (THI max. De 31 a 35). Al final del período experimental, 10, 20, 30, y 30 conejos de los tratamientos con densidades de 6, 12, 18 y 24 conejos/m2, respectivamente, fueron sacrificados y su canal fue valorada. El promedio de la ganancia diaria y el consumo de alimento disminuyeron en 0.31 ± 0.070 y 1.20 ± 0.25 g, respectivamente, por cada unidad de incremento en la densidad al inicio del experimento (P=0.001). Esto alargó el período de engorde en 0.91 ± 0.16 d (P=0.001) por cada unidad de incremento de la densidad. Sin embargo, la producción de conejos (kg/m2) aumentó lineal y cuadráticamente con la densidad (P<0.008). Los animales alojados en las mayores densidades en comparación con el resto tendieron a mostrar una mayore incidencia de tiña (68.9 vs 39.4%; P=0.075), de cantidad de animales heridos (16.8 vs 3.03%; P=0.12), así como de mortalidad (20.5 vs 9.63%; P=0.043). El aumento en la densidad aumentó linealmente la proporción de grasa escapular (P=0.042) y redujo linealmente la longitud dorsal (P=0.001), y lineal y cuadráticamente el porcentaje de pérdida por goteo (P=0.018). En el segundo experimento, 46 conejas nulliparas (23 rasuradas y 23 no rasuradas) con un peso vivo de 3.67 ± 0.05 kg (e.e.) fueron usadas para evaluar el estrés 8 térmico y los ritmos circadianos comparando conejas rasuradas o no, y estudiar si un sistema de crianza más extensivo mejora el desempeño de la camada al destete sin perjudicar la productividad de la coneja. Durante 24 h se midió la temperatura rectal, consumo de alimento y de agua. Las conejas fueron montadas 7 días después, y distribuidas en dos sistemas de crianza. El control (C): monta a 14 días posparto y destete a 35 d de edad. El extensivo (E): monta a 21 días posparto y destete a 42 d de edad. Se controló la productividad de la coneja y la camada durante los tres primeros ciclos. Doscientos veintiocho gazapos fueron distribuidos en dos tamaños de jaulas (0.5 y 0.25 m2) con la misma densidad (16 conejos/m2) y se controlaron sus rendimientos productivos. Durante la noche se observaron los valores mínimos para la temperatura ambiental y rectal, y los máximos para consumo de alimento y agua (P< 0.001). Las conejas no rasuradas mostraron mayor temperatura rectal (P=0.045) y menores valores de consumo de alimento con respecto a las conejas rasuradas (P=0.019), lo que sugiere un menor estrés térmico en las últimas. El número de gazapos destetados por camada se redujo en 33% (P=0.038) en el grupo C. Este comportamiento se acentuó en el 2do y 3er ciclo en comparación con el primero (P≤0.054). La eficiencia alimenticia de las conejas tendió a disminuir en el grupo E con respecto al grupo C (P=0.093), dicha tendencia se acentúa del primer al tercer ciclo en un 48% (P=0.014). Los gazapos en fase de crecimiento provenientes del grupo E fueron más pesados al momento del destete (en 38% P<0.001), mostrando un mayor consumo de alimento (+7.4%) y menor eficiencia alimenticia (-8.4%) a lo largo del engorde (P≤0.056) con respecto al grupo C. El tamaño de la jaula tuvo una mínima influencia en el comportamiento durante el crecimiento de éstos gazapos. En el tercer experimento, cuarenta y cinco conejas no gestantes ni lactantes (21 nulíparas y 24 multíparas) se les asignó al azar agua dos tipos de agua: común de la granja y agua potable, con el fin de estudiar si una mejora en la calidad del agua puede afectar positivamente la respuesta de la coneja al estrés térmico durante la gestación y la lactancia. Se les implantó un transponder para registrar la temperatura subcutánea a las 7:30 y a las 14:30 h. El período experimental se extendió desde la gestación (sin 9 lactancia) hasta la lactanción consecutiva (hasta los 28 días). La temperatura corporal y la producción de leche se controlaron diariamente, y la condición corporal, consumo de agua y alimento, semanalmente. La calidad del agua no afectó a ninguna variable (P≥0.15). Las conejas preñadas fueron clasificadas como conejas que destetaron (W: 47%), que no destetaron (NW:44%) o aquellas que no parieron (NB: 9%). La temperatura corporal y consumo de alimento disminuyeron durante la gestación (P≤0.031), mientras que el consumo de agua se mantuvo constante. La temperatura corporal descendió con el peso metabólico durante la gestación (P≤0.009). El balance de energía y proteína disminuyó desde la monta al parto para las conejas W y NW (P≤0.011). Durante la gestación la temperatura corporal tendió a ser menor en las conejas W (P≤0.090). La longitud de la gestación y el número total de gazapos nacidos tendieron a ser mayores en conejas NW que en conejas W (P=0.10 y 0.053, respectivamente). La mortalidad de los gazapos al parto y del parto a los 14 días de lactancia fue alta, siendo peor para las conejas NW que para las W (97 vs 40%; P<0.001). Durante la lactancia la temperatura corporal alcanzó su valor máximo para el día 12, y la producción de leche indujo un incremento en la misma (P≤0.025). En conclusión, en nuestras condiciones de estrés térmico y sin importar el tamaño de la jaula, no se recomiendan densidades mayores a 18 conejos/m2 (34 kg/m2) al final del engorde. La productividad de la gestación y la lactancia disminuyen cuando la lactancia es mayor y se suceden varios ciclos reproductivos seguidos. Esto se debe al efecto negativo del estrés térmico sobre la vitalidad y supervivencia del embrión/gazapo. La mejora de la calidad del agua atenuó el efecto negativo del estrés térmico. Las conejas más productoras parece que son aquéllas que consiguen manejar mejor el estrés térmico.

Human Factor in Resilience Systems

This paper shows the importance of a holistic comprehension of the Earth as a living planet, where man inhabits and is exposed to environmental incidences of different nature. The aim of the paper here summarized is a reflection on all these concepts and scientific considerations related to the important role of men in the handling of natural hazards. Our Planet is an unstable and dynamical system highly sensitive to initial conditions, as proposed by Chaos theory (González-Miranda 2004); it is a complex organic whole, which responds to minimal variations which can affect several natural phenomena such as plate tectonics, solar flares, fluid turbulences, landscape formation, forest fires, growth and migration of populations and biological evolution. This is known as the “butterfly effect” (Lorenz 1972), which means that a small change of the system causes a chain of events leading to large-scale unpredictable consequences. The aim of this work is dwelling on the importance of the knowledge of these natural and catastrophic geological, biological and human systems so much sensible to equilibrium conditions, to prevent, avoid and mend their effects, and to face them in a resilient way

Comparison of starts and turns of national and regional level swimmers by individualized-distance measurements

The aim of this study was to compare the race characteristics of the start and turn segments of national and regional level swimmers. In the study, 100 and 200-m events were analysed during the finals session of the Open Comunidad de Madrid (Spain) tournament. The “individualized-distance” method with two-dimensional direct linear transformation algorithm was used to perform race analyses. National level swimmers obtained faster velocities in all race segments and stroke comparisons,although significant inter-level differences in start velocity were only obtained in half (8 out of 16) of the analysed events. Higher level swimmers also travelled for longer start and turn distances but only in the race segments where the gain of speed was high. This was observed in the turn segments, in the backstroke and butterfly strokes and during the 200-m breaststroke event, but not in any of the freestyle events. Time improvements due to the appropriate extension of the underwater subsections appeared to be critical for the end race result and should be carefully evaluated by the “individualized-distance” method.

Coupled Nonlinear Ginzburg-Landau and Mechanics Model for Martensitic Transformations in Polycrystals

Las transformaciones martensíticas (MT) se definen como un cambio en la estructura del cristal para formar una fase coherente o estructuras de dominio multivariante, a partir de la fase inicial con la misma composición, debido a pequeños intercambios o movimientos atómicos cooperativos. En el siglo pasado se han descubierto MT en diferentes materiales partiendo desde los aceros hasta las aleaciones con memoria de forma, materiales cerámicos y materiales inteligentes. Todos muestran propiedades destacables como alta resistencia mecánica, memoria de forma, efectos de superelasticidad o funcionalidades ferroicas como la piezoelectricidad, electro y magneto-estricción etc. Varios modelos/teorías se han desarrollado en sinergia con el desarrollo de la física del estado sólido para entender por qué las MT generan microstructuras muy variadas y ricas que muestran propiedades muy interesantes. Entre las teorías mejor aceptadas se encuentra la Teoría Fenomenológica de la Cristalografía Martensítica (PTMC, por sus siglas en inglés) que predice el plano de hábito y las relaciones de orientación entre la austenita y la martensita. La reinterpretación de la teoría PTMC en un entorno de mecánica del continuo (CM-PTMC) explica la formación de los dominios de estructuras multivariantes, mientras que la teoría de Landau con dinámica de inercia desentraña los mecanismos físicos de los precursores y otros comportamientos dinámicos. La dinámica de red cristalina desvela la reducción de la dureza acústica de las ondas de tensión de red que da lugar a transformaciones débiles de primer orden en el desplazamiento. A pesar de las diferencias entre las teorías estáticas y dinámicas dado su origen en diversas ramas de la física (por ejemplo mecánica continua o dinámica de la red cristalina), estas teorías deben estar inherentemente conectadas entre sí y mostrar ciertos elementos en común en una perspectiva unificada de la física. No obstante las conexiones físicas y diferencias entre las teorías/modelos no se han tratado hasta la fecha, aun siendo de importancia crítica para la mejora de modelos de MT y para el desarrollo integrado de modelos de transformaciones acopladas de desplazamiento-difusión. Por lo tanto, esta tesis comenzó con dos objetivos claros. El primero fue encontrar las conexiones físicas y las diferencias entre los modelos de MT mediante un análisis teórico detallado y simulaciones numéricas. El segundo objetivo fue expandir el modelo de Landau para ser capaz de estudiar MT en policristales, en el caso de transformaciones acopladas de desplazamiento-difusión, y en presencia de dislocaciones. Comenzando con un resumen de los antecedente, en este trabajo se presentan las bases físicas de los modelos actuales de MT. Su capacidad para predecir MT se clarifica mediante el ansis teórico y las simulaciones de la evolución microstructural de MT de cúbicoatetragonal y cúbicoatrigonal en 3D. Este análisis revela que el modelo de Landau con representación irreducible de la deformación transformada es equivalente a la teoría CM-PTMC y al modelo de microelasticidad para predecir los rasgos estáticos durante la MT, pero proporciona una mejor interpretación de los comportamientos dinámicos. Sin embargo, las aplicaciones del modelo de Landau en materiales estructurales están limitadas por su complejidad. Por tanto, el primer resultado de esta tesis es el desarrollo del modelo de Landau nolineal con representación irreducible de deformaciones y de la dinámica de inercia para policristales. La simulación demuestra que el modelo propuesto es consistente fcamente con el CM-PTMC en la descripción estática, y también permite una predicción del diagrama de fases con la clásica forma ’en C’ de los modos de nucleación martensítica activados por la combinación de temperaturas de enfriamiento y las condiciones de tensión aplicada correlacionadas con la transformación de energía de Landau. Posteriomente, el modelo de Landau de MT es integrado con un modelo de transformación de difusión cuantitativa para elucidar la relajación atómica y la difusión de corto alcance de los elementos durante la MT en acero. El modelo de transformaciones de desplazamiento y difusión incluye los efectos de la relajación en borde de grano para la nucleación heterogenea y la evolución espacio-temporal de potenciales de difusión y movilidades químicas mediante el acoplamiento de herramientas de cálculo y bases de datos termo-cinéticos de tipo CALPHAD. El modelo se aplica para estudiar la evolución microstructural de aceros al carbono policristalinos procesados por enfriamiento y partición (Q&P) en 2D. La microstructura y la composición obtenida mediante la simulación se comparan con los datos experimentales disponibles. Los resultados muestran el importante papel jugado por las diferencias en movilidad de difusión entre la fase austenita y martensita en la distibución de carbono en las aceros. Finalmente, un modelo multi-campo es propuesto mediante la incorporación del modelo de dislocación en grano-grueso al modelo desarrollado de Landau para incluir las diferencias morfológicas entre aceros y aleaciones con memoria de forma con la misma ruptura de simetría. La nucleación de dislocaciones, la formación de la martensita ’butterfly’, y la redistribución del carbono después del revenido son bien representadas en las simulaciones 2D del estudio de la evolución de la microstructura en aceros representativos. Con dicha simulación demostramos que incluyendo las dislocaciones obtenemos para dichos aceros, una buena comparación frente a los datos experimentales de la morfología de los bordes de macla, la existencia de austenita retenida dentro de la martensita, etc. Por tanto, basado en un modelo integral y en el desarrollo de códigos durante esta tesis, se ha creado una herramienta de modelización multiescala y multi-campo. Dicha herramienta acopla la termodinámica y la mecánica del continuo en la macroescala con la cinética de difusión y los modelos de campo de fase/Landau en la mesoescala, y también incluye los principios de la cristalografía y de la dinámica de red cristalina en la microescala. ABSTRACT Martensitic transformation (MT), in a narrow sense, is defined as the change of the crystal structure to form a coherent phase, or multi-variant domain structures out from a parent phase with the same composition, by small shuffles or co-operative movements of atoms. Over the past century, MTs have been discovered in different materials from steels to shape memory alloys, ceramics, and smart materials. They lead to remarkable properties such as high strength, shape memory/superelasticity effects or ferroic functionalities including piezoelectricity, electro- and magneto-striction, etc. Various theories/models have been developed, in synergy with development of solid state physics, to understand why MT can generate these rich microstructures and give rise to intriguing properties. Among the well-established theories, the Phenomenological Theory of Martensitic Crystallography (PTMC) is able to predict the habit plane and the orientation relationship between austenite and martensite. The re-interpretation of the PTMC theory within a continuum mechanics framework (CM-PTMC) explains the formation of the multivariant domain structures, while the Landau theory with inertial dynamics unravels the physical origins of precursors and other dynamic behaviors. The crystal lattice dynamics unveils the acoustic softening of the lattice strain waves leading to the weak first-order displacive transformation, etc. Though differing in statics or dynamics due to their origins in different branches of physics (e.g. continuum mechanics or crystal lattice dynamics), these theories should be inherently connected with each other and show certain elements in common within a unified perspective of physics. However, the physical connections and distinctions among the theories/models have not been addressed yet, although they are critical to further improving the models of MTs and to develop integrated models for more complex displacivediffusive coupled transformations. Therefore, this thesis started with two objectives. The first one was to reveal the physical connections and distinctions among the models of MT by means of detailed theoretical analyses and numerical simulations. The second objective was to expand the Landau model to be able to study MTs in polycrystals, in the case of displacive-diffusive coupled transformations, and in the presence of the dislocations. Starting with a comprehensive review, the physical kernels of the current models of MTs are presented. Their ability to predict MTs is clarified by means of theoretical analyses and simulations of the microstructure evolution of cubic-to-tetragonal and cubic-to-trigonal MTs in 3D. This analysis reveals that the Landau model with irreducible representation of the transformed strain is equivalent to the CM-PTMC theory and microelasticity model to predict the static features during MTs but provides better interpretation of the dynamic behaviors. However, the applications of the Landau model in structural materials are limited due its the complexity. Thus, the first result of this thesis is the development of a nonlinear Landau model with irreducible representation of strains and the inertial dynamics for polycrystals. The simulation demonstrates that the updated model is physically consistent with the CM-PTMC in statics, and also permits a prediction of a classical ’C shaped’ phase diagram of martensitic nucleation modes activated by the combination of quenching temperature and applied stress conditions interplaying with Landau transformation energy. Next, the Landau model of MT is further integrated with a quantitative diffusional transformation model to elucidate atomic relaxation and short range diffusion of elements during the MT in steel. The model for displacive-diffusive transformations includes the effects of grain boundary relaxation for heterogeneous nucleation and the spatio-temporal evolution of diffusion potentials and chemical mobility by means of coupling with a CALPHAD-type thermo-kinetic calculation engine and database. The model is applied to study for the microstructure evolution of polycrystalline carbon steels processed by the Quenching and Partitioning (Q&P) process in 2D. The simulated mixed microstructure and composition distribution are compared with available experimental data. The results show that the important role played by the differences in diffusion mobility between austenite and martensite to the partitioning in carbon steels. Finally, a multi-field model is proposed by incorporating the coarse-grained dislocation model to the developed Landau model to account for the morphological difference between steels and shape memory alloys with same symmetry breaking. The dislocation nucleation, the formation of the ’butterfly’ martensite, and the redistribution of carbon after tempering are well represented in the 2D simulations for the microstructure evolution of the representative steels. With the simulation, we demonstrate that the dislocations account for the experimental observation of rough twin boundaries, retained austenite within martensite, etc. in steels. Thus, based on the integrated model and the in-house codes developed in thesis, a preliminary multi-field, multiscale modeling tool is built up. The new tool couples thermodynamics and continuum mechanics at the macroscale with diffusion kinetics and phase field/Landau model at the mesoscale, and also includes the essentials of crystallography and crystal lattice dynamics at microscale.

The binding conformation of Taxol in β-tubulin: A model based on electron crystallographic density

The chemotherapeutic drug Taxol is known to interact within a specific site on β-tubulin. Although the general location of the site has been defined by photoaffinity labeling and electron crystallography, the original data were insufficient to make an absolute determination of the bound conformation. We have now correlated the crystallographic density with analysis of Taxol conformations and have found the unique solution to be a T-shaped Taxol structure. This T-shaped or butterfly structure is optimized within the β-tubulin site and exhibits functional similarity to a portion of the B9-B10 loop in the α-tubulin subunit. The model provides structural rationalization for a sizeable body of Taxol structure–activity relationship data, including binding affinity, photoaffinity labeling, and acquired mutation in human cancer cells.