Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

Modeling Techniques for the High-Resolution Interpretation of Cryo-Electron Microscopy Reconstructions

Essential biological processes are governed by organized, dynamic interactions between multiple biomolecular systems. Complexes are thus formed to enable the biological function and get dissembled as the process is completed. Examples of such processes include the translation of the messenger RNA into protein by the ribosome, the folding of proteins by chaperonins or the entry of viruses in host cells. Understanding these fundamental processes by characterizing the molecular mechanisms that enable then, would allow the (better) design of therapies and drugs. Such molecular mechanisms may be revealed trough the structural elucidation of the biomolecular assemblies at the core of these processes. Various experimental techniques may be applied to investigate the molecular architecture of biomolecular assemblies. High-resolution techniques, such as X-ray crystallography, may solve the atomic structure of the system, but are typically constrained to biomolecules of reduced flexibility and dimensions. In particular, X-ray crystallography requires the sample to form a three dimensional (3D) crystal lattice which is technically di‑cult, if not impossible, to obtain, especially for large, dynamic systems. Often these techniques solve the structure of the different constituent components within the assembly, but encounter difficulties when investigating the entire system. On the other hand, imaging techniques, such as cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), are able to depict large systems in near-native environment, without requiring the formation of crystals. The structures solved by cryo-EM cover a wide range of resolutions, from very low level of detail where only the overall shape of the system is visible, to high-resolution that approach, but not yet reach, atomic level of detail. In this dissertation, several modeling methods are introduced to either integrate cryo-EM datasets with structural data from X-ray crystallography, or to directly interpret the cryo-EM reconstruction. Such computational techniques were developed with the goal of creating an atomic model for the cryo-EM data. The low-resolution reconstructions lack the level of detail to permit a direct atomic interpretation, i.e. one cannot reliably locate the atoms or amino-acid residues within the structure obtained by cryo-EM. Thereby one needs to consider additional information, for example, structural data from other sources such as X-ray crystallography, in order to enable such a high-resolution interpretation. Modeling techniques are thus developed to integrate the structural data from the different biophysical sources, examples including the work described in the manuscript I and II of this dissertation. At intermediate and high-resolution, cryo-EM reconstructions depict consistent 3D folds such as tubular features which in general correspond to alpha-helices. Such features can be annotated and later on used to build the atomic model of the system, see manuscript III as alternative. Three manuscripts are presented as part of the PhD dissertation, each introducing a computational technique that facilitates the interpretation of cryo-EM reconstructions. The first manuscript is an application paper that describes a heuristics to generate the atomic model for the protein envelope of the Rift Valley fever virus. The second manuscript introduces the evolutionary tabu search strategies to enable the integration of multiple component atomic structures with the cryo-EM map of their assembly. Finally, the third manuscript develops further the latter technique and apply it to annotate consistent 3D patterns in intermediate-resolution cryo-EM reconstructions. The first manuscript, titled An assembly model for Rift Valley fever virus, was submitted for publication in the Journal of Molecular Biology. The cryo-EM structure of the Rift Valley fever virus was previously solved at 27Å-resolution by Dr. Freiberg and collaborators. Such reconstruction shows the overall shape of the virus envelope, yet the reduced level of detail prevents the direct atomic interpretation. High-resolution structures are not yet available for the entire virus nor for the two different component glycoproteins that form its envelope. However, homology models may be generated for these glycoproteins based on similar structures that are available at atomic resolutions. The manuscript presents the steps required to identify an atomic model of the entire virus envelope, based on the low-resolution cryo-EM map of the envelope and the homology models of the two glycoproteins. Starting with the results of the exhaustive search to place the two glycoproteins, the model is built iterative by running multiple multi-body refinements to hierarchically generate models for the different regions of the envelope. The generated atomic model is supported by prior knowledge regarding virus biology and contains valuable information about the molecular architecture of the system. It provides the basis for further investigations seeking to reveal different processes in which the virus is involved such as assembly or fusion. The second manuscript was recently published in the of Journal of Structural Biology (doi:10.1016/j.jsb.2009.12.028) under the title Evolutionary tabu search strategies for the simultaneous registration of multiple atomic structures in cryo-EM reconstructions. This manuscript introduces the evolutionary tabu search strategies applied to enable a multi-body registration. This technique is a hybrid approach that combines a genetic algorithm with a tabu search strategy to promote the proper exploration of the high-dimensional search space. Similar to the Rift Valley fever virus, it is common that the structure of a large multi-component assembly is available at low-resolution from cryo-EM, while high-resolution structures are solved for the different components but lack for the entire system. Evolutionary tabu search strategies enable the building of an atomic model for the entire system by considering simultaneously the different components. Such registration indirectly introduces spatial constrains as all components need to be placed within the assembly, enabling the proper docked in the low-resolution map of the entire assembly. Along with the method description, the manuscript covers the validation, presenting the benefit of the technique in both synthetic and experimental test cases. Such approach successfully docked multiple components up to resolutions of 40Å. The third manuscript is entitled Evolutionary Bidirectional Expansion for the Annotation of Alpha Helices in Electron Cryo-Microscopy Reconstructions and was submitted for publication in the Journal of Structural Biology. The modeling approach described in this manuscript applies the evolutionary tabu search strategies in combination with the bidirectional expansion to annotate secondary structure elements in intermediate resolution cryo-EM reconstructions. In particular, secondary structure elements such as alpha helices show consistent patterns in cryo-EM data, and are visible as rod-like patterns of high density. The evolutionary tabu search strategy is applied to identify the placement of the different alpha helices, while the bidirectional expansion characterizes their length and curvature. The manuscript presents the validation of the approach at resolutions ranging between 6 and 14Å, a level of detail where alpha helices are visible. Up to resolution of 12 Å, the method measures sensitivities between 70-100% as estimated in experimental test cases, i.e. 70-100% of the alpha-helices were correctly predicted in an automatic manner in the experimental data. The three manuscripts presented in this PhD dissertation cover different computation methods for the integration and interpretation of cryo-EM reconstructions. The methods were developed in the molecular modeling software Sculptor (http://sculptor.biomachina.org) and are available for the scientific community interested in the multi-resolution modeling of cryo-EM data. The work spans a wide range of resolution covering multi-body refinement and registration at low-resolution along with annotation of consistent patterns at high-resolution. Such methods are essential for the modeling of cryo-EM data, and may be applied in other fields where similar spatial problems are encountered, such as medical imaging.

A geomorphological seabed classification for the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, with links to ArcGIS project files

Sea floor morphology plays an important role in many scientific disciplines such as ecology, hydrology and sedimentology since geomorphic features can act as physical controls for e.g. species distribution, oceanographically flow-path estimations or sedimentation processes. In this study, we provide a terrain analysis of the Weddell Sea based on the 500 m × 500 m resolution bathymetry data provided by the mapping project IBCSO. Seventeen seabed classes are recognized at the sea floor based on a fine and broad scale Benthic Positioning Index calculation highlighting the diversity of the glacially carved shelf. Beside the morphology, slope, aspect, terrain rugosity and hillshade were calculated. Applying zonal statistics to the geomorphic features identified unambiguously the shelf edge of the Weddell Sea with a width of 45-70 km and a mean depth of about 1200 m ranging from 270 m to 4300 m. A complex morphology of troughs, flat ridges, pinnacles, steep slopes, seamounts, outcrops, and narrow ridges, structures with approx. 5-7 km width, build an approx. 40-70 km long swath along the shelf edge. The study shows where scarps and depressions control the connection between shelf and abyssal and where high and low declination within the scarps e.g. occur. For evaluation purpose, 428 grain size samples were added to the seabed class map. The mean values of mud, sand and gravel of those samples falling into a single seabed class was calculated, respectively, and assigned to a sediment texture class according to a common sediment classification scheme.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and processes during experiments with Emiliania huxleyi (PML B93/11A)

The formation of calcareous skeletons by marine planktonic organisms and their subsequent sinking to depth generates a continuous rain of calcium carbonate to the deep ocean and underlying sediments. This is important in regulating marine carbon cycling and ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. The present rise in atmospheric CO2 levels causes significant changes in surface ocean pH and carbonate chemistry. Such changes have been shown to slow down calcification in corals and coralline macroalgae, but the majority of marine calcification occurs in planktonic organisms. Here we report reduced calcite production at increased CO2 concentrations in monospecific cultures of two dominant marine calcifying phytoplankton species, the coccolithophorids Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica . This was accompanied by an increased proportion of malformed coccoliths and incomplete coccospheres. Diminished calcification led to a reduction in the ratio of calcite precipitation to organic matter production. Similar results were obtained in incubations of natural plankton assemblages from the north Pacific ocean when exposed to experimentally elevated CO2 levels. We suggest that the progressive increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may therefore slow down the production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean. As the process of calcification releases CO2 to the atmosphere, the response observed here could potentially act as a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, processes and elements during experiments with planktonic foraminifera Orbulina universa, 2004

We investigate the sensitivity of U/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca to changes in seawater [CO3[2-]] and temperature in calcite produced by the two planktonic foraminifera species, Orbulina universa and Globigerina bulloides, in laboratory culture experiments. Our results demonstrate that at constant temperature, U/Ca in O. universa decreases by 25 +/- 7% per 100 µmol [CO3[2-]] kg**-1, as seawater [CO3[2-]] increases from 110 to 470 µmol kg**-1. Results from G. bulloides suggest a similar relationship, but U/Ca is consistently offset by ~+40% at the same environmental [CO3[2-]]. In O. universa, U/Ca is insensitive to temperature between 15°C and 25°C. Applying the O. universa relationship to three U/Ca records from a related species, Globigerinoides sacculifer, we estimate that Caribbean and tropical Atlantic [CO3[2-]] was 110 +/- 70 µmol kg**-1 and 80 +/- 40 µmol kg**-1 higher, respectively, during the last glacial period relative to the Holocene. This result is consistent with estimates of the glacial-interglacial change in surface water [CO3[2-]] based on both modeling and on boron isotope pH estimates. In settings where the addition of U by diagenetic processes is not a factor, down-core records of foraminiferal U/Ca have potential to provide information about changes in the ocean's carbonate concentration.

Domain-Specific Multi-Modeling of Security Concerns in Service-Oriented Architectures

As a common reference for many in-development standards and execution frameworks, special attention is being paid to Service-Oriented Architectures. SOAs modeling, however, is an area in which a consensus has not being achieved. Currently, standardization organizations are defining proposals to offer a solution to this problem. Nevertheless, until very recently, non-functional aspects of services have not been considered for standardization processes. In particular, there exists a lack of a design solution that permits an independent development of the functional and non-functional concerns of SOAs, allowing that each concern be addressed in a convenient manner in early stages of the development, in a way that could guarantee the quality of this type of systems. This paper, leveraging on previous work, presents an approach to integrate security-related non-functional aspects (such as confidentiality, integrity, and access control) in the development of services.

Participatory modeling for sustainable development in water and agrarian systems: potential and limits of stakeholder involvement

Public participation is increasingly advocated as a necessary feature of natural resources management. The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is such an example, as it prescribes participatory processes as necessary features in basin management plans (EC 2000). The rationale behind this mandate is that involving interest groups ideally yields higher-quality decisions, which are arguably more likely to meet public acceptance (Pahl-Wostl, 2006). Furthermore, failing to involve stakeholders in policy-making might hamper the implementation of management initiatives, as controversial decisions can lead pressure lobbies to generate public opposition (Giordano et al. 2005, Mouratiadou and Moran 2007).

Modeling soil system: complexity under your feet

A clear statement in these lines textually cited (Byers et al., 1938) defines the framework of this special issue: “True soil is the product of the action of climate and living organism upon the parent material, as conditioned by the local relief. The length of time during which these forces are operative is of great importance in determining the character of the ultimate product. Drainage conditions are also important and are controlled by local relief, by the nature of the parent material or underlying rock strata, or by the amount of precipitation in relation to rate of percolation and runoff water. There are, therefore, five principal factors of soil formation: Parent material, climate, biological activity, relief and time. These soil forming factors are interdependent, each modifying the effectiveness of the others.” Due to these various processes associated to its formation and genesis soil dynamics reveals high complexity that creates several levels of structure using this term in a broad sense

Assessment of CTF boiling transition and critical heat flux modeling capabilities using the OECD/NRC BFBT and PSBT benchmark databases

The need to refine models for best-estimate calculations, based on good-quality experimental data, has been expressed in many recent meetings in the field of nuclear applications. The modeling needs arising in this respect should not be limited to the currently available macroscopic methods but should be extended to next-generation analysis techniques that focus on more microscopic processes. One of the most valuable databases identified for the thermalhydraulics modeling was developed by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC), Japan. From 1987 to 1995, NUPEC performed steady-state and transient critical power and departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) test series based on the equivalent full-size mock-ups. Considering the reliability not only of the measured data, but also other relevant parameters such as the system pressure, inlet sub-cooling and rod surface temperature, these test series supplied the first substantial database for the development of truly mechanistic and consistent models for boiling transition and critical heat flux. Over the last few years the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) under the sponsorship of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has prepared, organized, conducted and summarized the OECD/NRC Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT) Benchmark. The international benchmark activities have been conducted in cooperation with the Nuclear Energy Agency/Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (NEA/OECD) and Japan Nuclear Energy Safety (JNES) organization, Japan. Consequently, the JNES has made available the Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) NUPEC database for the purposes of the benchmark. Based on the success of the OECD/NRC BFBT benchmark the JNES has decided to release also the data based on the NUPEC Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) subchannel and bundle tests for another follow-up international benchmark entitled OECD/NRC PWR Subchannel and Bundle Tests (PSBT) benchmark. This paper presents an application of the joint Penn State University/Technical University of Madrid (UPM) version of the well-known subchannel code COBRA-TF, namely CTF, to the critical power and departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) exercises of the OECD/NRC BFBT and PSBT benchmarks

Integrated methodology for assessing the effects of geomorphological river restoration on fish habitat and riparian vegetation

Changes in the geomorphology of rivers have serious repercussions, causing losses in the dynamics and naturalness of their forms, going in many cases, from a type of meandering channel, with constant erosion and sedimentation processes, to a channelized narrow river with rigid and stable margins, where the only possibility of movement occurs in the vertical, causing the only changes in channel geometry occur in the river bed. On the other hand, these changes seriously affect the naturalness of the banks, preventing the development of riparian vegetation and reducing the cross connectivity of the riparian corridor. Common canalizations and disconnections of meanders increase the slope, and therefore speed, resulting in processes of regressive erosion, effect increased as a result of the narrowing of the channel and the concentration of flows. This process of incision may turn the flood plain to be "hung", being completely disconnected from the water table, with important consequences for vegetation. As an example of the effects of these changes, it has been chosen the case of the Arga River The Arga river has been channelized and rectified, as it passes along the meander RamalHondo and Soto Gil (Funes, Navarra). The effects on fish habitat and riparian vegetation by remeandering the Arga River are presented. and Ttwo very contrasting situationsrestoration hypothesis, in terms of geomorphology concerns, have been established to assess the effects these changes have on the habitat of one of the major fish species in the area (Luciobabus graellsii) and on the riparian vegetation. To accomplish this goal, it has been necessary to used the a digital elevation model provided by LIDAR flight, bathymetric data, flow data, as inputs, and a hydraulic simulation model 2D (Infoworks RS). The results obtained not only helped to evaluate the effects of the past alterations of geomorphologic characteristics, but also to predict fish and vegetation habitat responses to this type of changes.