ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set

ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis data set covering the period 1979–2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land is the result of a single 32-year simulation with the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) land surface model driven by meteorological forcing from the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis and precipitation adjustments based on monthly GPCP v2.1 (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The horizontal resolution is about 80 km and the time frequency is 3-hourly. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim data set, which makes it more suitable for climate studies involving land water resources. The quality of ERA-Interim/Land is assessed by comparing with ground-based and remote sensing observations. In particular, estimates of soil moisture, snow depth, surface albedo, turbulent latent and sensible fluxes, and river discharges are verified against a large number of site measurements. ERA-Interim/Land provides a global integrated and coherent estimate of soil moisture and snow water equivalent, which can also be used for the initialization of numerical weather prediction and climate models.

Review of monitoring tools for e-learning platforms

The advancement of e-learning technologies has made it viable for developments in education and technology to be combined in order to fulfil educational needs worldwide. E-learning consists of informal learning approaches and emerging technologies to support the delivery of learning skills, materials, collaboration and knowledge sharing. E-learning is a holistic approach that covers a wide range of courses, technologies and infrastructures to provide an effective learning environment. The Learning Management System (LMS) is the core of the entire e-learning process along with technology, content, and services. This paper investigates the role of model-driven personalisation support modalities in providing enhanced levels of learning and trusted assimilation in an e-learning delivery context. We present an analysis of the impact of an integrated learning path that an e-learning system may employ to track activities and evaluate the performance of learners.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

The synergies between goal sketching and enterprise architecture

This paper introduces a pragmatic and practical method for requirements modeling. The method is built using the concepts of our goal sketching technique together with techniques from an enterprise architecture modeling language. Our claim is that our method will help project managers who want to establish early control of their projects and will also give managers confidence in the scope of their project. In particular we propose the inclusion of assumptions as first class entities in the ArchiMate enterprise architecture modeling language and an extension of the ArchiMate Motivation Model principle to allow radical as well as normative analyses. We demonstrate the usefulness of this method using a simple university library system as an example.

Precipitation and floodiness

There are a number of factors that lead to non-linearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this non-linearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this non-linearity for the first time using a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim Land precipitation reanalysis (1980–2010). We introduced new indices to assess large-scale flood hazard, or floodiness, and quantified the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge and floodiness anomalies at the global and regional scales. The results show that monthly floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, therefore demonstrating the value of hydrometeorological systems for providing floodiness forecasts for decision-makers. A method is described for forecasting floodiness using the Global Flood Awareness System, building a climatology of regional floodiness from which to forecast floodiness anomalies out to two weeks.

Sea ice production and water mass modification in the eastern Laptev Sea

A simple polynya flux model driven by standard atmospheric forcing is used to investigate the ice formation that took place during an exceptionally strong and consistent western New Siberian (WNS) polynya event in 2004 in the Laptev Sea. Whether formation rates are high enough to erode the stratification of the water column beneath is examined by adding the brine released during the 2004 polynya event to the average winter density stratification of the water body, preconditioned by summers with a cyclonic atmospheric forcing (comparatively weakly stratified water column). Beforehand, the model performance is tested through a simulation of a well‐documented event in April 2008. Neglecting the replenishment of water masses by advection into the polynya area, we find the probability for the occurrence of density‐driven convection down to the bottom to be low. Our findings can be explained by the distinct vertical density gradient that characterizes the area of the WNS polynya and the apparent lack of extreme events in the eastern Laptev Sea. The simple approach is expected to be sufficiently rigorous, since the simulated event is exceptionally strong and consistent, the ice production and salt rejection rates are likely to be overestimated, and the amount of salt rejected is distrusted over a comparatively weakly stratified water column. We conclude that the observed erosion of the halocline and formation of vertically mixed water layers during a WNS polynya event is therefore predominantly related to wind‐ and tidally driven turbulent mixing processes.

A prospectus for future geomorphological investigation of the Namib sand sea

The Namib Sand Sea in southern Africa offers an ideal location in which to consider general questions about the evolution of sand seas, about the fluxes of sand through contemporary dune fields and about the patterns of dune form that are created. This paper aims to provide a concise account of the approaches and techniques that are currently being used and will be used in the future to address these questions. The paper considers the techniques employed to investigate wind climate, the morphometry of the dunes, the internal structure of dune sediments, the age of the dunes and the potential to model dune development

Prototype Generation from Ontology Charts

Semantic Analysis is a business analysis method designed to capture system requirements. While these requirements may be represented as text, the method also advocates the use of Ontology Charts to formally denote the system's required roles, relationships and forms of communication. Following model driven engineering techniques, Ontology Charts can be transformed to temporal Database schemas, class diagrams and component diagrams, which can then be used to produce software systems. A nice property of these transformations is that resulting system design models lend themselves to complicated extensions that do not require changes to the design models. For example, resulting databases can be extended with new types of data without the need to modify the database schema of the legacy system. Semantic Analysis is not widely used in software engineering, so there is a lack of experts in the field and no design patterns are available. This make it difficult for the analysts to pass organizational knowledge to the engineers. This study describes an implementation that is readily usable by engineers, which includes an automated technique that can produce a prototype from an Ontology Chart. The use of such tools should enable developers to make use of Semantic Analysis with minimal expertise of ontologies and MDA.

O Processo de Concessão dos Sistemas de Transporte de Massa na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro: Implicações na Organização e na Gestão de Transporte de Passageiros

O presente estudo procurou descrever e analisar o contexto em que se desenvolveu o processo de concessão dos sistemas de transporte de massa na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, promovido pelo Programa Estadual de Desestatização ¿ PED, na gestão governamental compreendida entre os anos de 1995 e 1998, bem como avaliar suas implicações sobre o modelo de organização e gestão do transporte público regional então vigente. Seu desenvolvimento enfatizou três aspectos desse processo: a caracterização do cenário anterior à proposta de mudança, a análise substantiva da política representada pelo programa de concessões e a avaliação do novo cenário criado como conseqüência do programa. Sua metodologia pautou-se em consulta bibliográfica, volumosa análise documental, observação dos fatos e entrevistas desestruturadas com administradores e técnicos envolvidos no processo. Seus resultados evidenciaram as limitações dos modelos de análise e de planejamento tradicionalmente adotados para a formulação das políticas setoriais, a precariedade dos sistemas de transporte de passageiros regionais e a situação pelos sistemas de metrô, trens e barcas, consubstanciando um ambiente propício às propostas de sua transferência à gestão privada. Evidenciaram, ainda, que a iniciativa foi influenciada pelo contexto dos projetos de reforma do Estado patrocinados pelo Banco Mundial (BIRD), desenvolvendo-se sem referências relevantes na comunidade técnica setorial e gerando um cenário institucional frágil diante da tarefa de gerir os contratos dela resultantes. Embora pautado em estratégias de retomada de investimentos condizentes com as diretrizes do Plano de Transporte de Massa ¿ PTM, elaborado em 1994, a insipiência do programa não permite constatar, ainda tendências significativas no desempenho dos sistemas concedidos. São evidentes, entretanto, seus reflexos na desentruturação do modelo de gestão pública do transporte metropolitano sob responsabilidade do Estado.

A sucessão na empresa familiar: um estudo de caso na empresa Centro Elétrico na cidade de São Luís Estado do Maranhão

This paper deals with the familiar enterprise succession leaving as a goal to identify, describe and analyze the factors which facilitate and make difficult the process of succession of the familiar enterprise. To this it contextualizes the familiar enterprise in the labor market through its contexts, process and characters. Afterward it treats of the familiar enterprise as an system in its complexity of this segment of the enterprise. It considered the need on studying its origin, evolution and characteristics. Also the ethics and familiar administration. It also, considered the cycle of life, the three-dimensional model of development having as a base the propriety, family and enterprise axes as well as the familiar profissionalization, the main focus reposes in the succession process having as a base its planning the field search reveals it self descriptive, that¿s to say a case study through interview with the proprietors, successors, aggregates and succeeded ones. Finally the management indicators which aim, to contribute to the familiar succession.

Fracking, China and the Global Economy

We develop an intertemporal model of the international economy, where tradeable intermediate goods are produced with capital, labor and hydrocarbons, and used in the production of non-tradeable consumption and investment goods. The model is calibrated to 176 countries, grouped according to their characteristics. We conduct simulations about key events that are currently reshaping the world e.g., fracking and China's new model of development. The model reproduces closely the recent fall in oil prices and delivers results about the impact on global output and consumption, but also about the propagation to different countries through terms of trade and capital accumulation.

Geração automática de interfaces com o utilizador: uma abordagem baseada em MDA para a plataforma PHP

Os modelos e as técnicas de modelação são, hoje em dia, fundamentais na engenharia de software, devido à complexidade e sofisticação dos sistemas de informação actuais.A linguagem Unified Modeling Language (UML) [OMG, 2005a] [OMG, 2005b] tornou-se uma norma para modelação, na engenharia de software e em outras áreas e domínios, mas é reconhecida a sua falta de suporte para a modelação da interactividade e da interface com o utilizador [Nunes and Falcão e Cunha, 2000].Neste trabalho, é explorada a ligação entre as áreas de engenharia de software e de interacção humano-computador, tendo, para isso, sido escolhido o processo de desenvolvimento Wisdom [Nunes and Falcão e Cunha, 2000] [Nunes, 2001]. O método Wisdom é conduzido por casos de utilização essenciais e pelo princípio da prototipificação evolutiva, focando-se no desenho das interfaces com o utilizador através da estrutura da apresentação, com a notação Protótipos Abstractos Canónicos (PAC) [Constantine and Lockwood, 1999] [Constantine, 2003], e do comportamento da interacção com a notação ConcurTaskTrees (CTT) [Paternò, 1999] [Mori, Paternò, et al., 2004] em UML.É proposto, também, neste trabalho um novo passo no processo Wisdom, sendo definido um modelo específico, construído segundo os requisitos da recomendação Model Driven Architecture (MDA) [Soley and OMG, 2000] [OMG, 2003] elaborada pela organização Object Managent Group (OMG). Este modelo específico será o intermediário entre o modelo de desenho e a implementação da interface final com o utilizador. Esta proposta alinha o método Wisdom com a recomendação MDA, tornando possível que sejam gerados, de forma automática, protótipos funcionais de interfaces com o utilizador a partir dos modelos conceptuais de análise e desenho.Foi utilizada a ferramenta de modelação e de metamodelação MetaSketch [Nóbrega, Nunes, et al., 2006] para a definição e manipulação dos modelos e elementos propostos. Foram criadas as aplicações Model2Model e Model2Code para suportar as transformações entre modelos e a geração de código a partir destes. Para a plataforma de implementação foi escolhida a framework Hydra, desenvolvida na linguagem PHP [PHP, 2006], que foi adaptada com alguns conceitos de modo a suportar a abordagem defendida neste trabalho.

A outra face dos modelos: técnicas de visualização para explorar modelos

Os modelos são tradicionalmente utilizados na engenharia de software para documentar aspetos do desenho e, em alguns casos, como base para a geração de parte ou a totalidade dos sistemas informáticos que descrevem. Embora subsista o debate sobre este tipo de abordagens e sobre o papel e qualidades que os modelos devem possuir nesta área de engenharia, a existência de modelos que estejam em conformidade com linguagens de modelação bem definidas permite outro tipo de utilizações que vão além das anteriormente referidas. Assente no conhecimento existente sobre a visualização de dados, nesta dissertação irá ser demonstrado a utilização de técnicas de visualização que permitem extrair informação sobre os modelos numa perspetiva inovadora e que contribui favoravelmente para uma melhor compreensão, análise e validação dos mesmos.

Integrating eye tracking in virtual reality for stroke rehabilitation

This thesis reports on research done for the integration of eye tracking technology into virtual reality environments, with the goal of using it in rehabilitation of patients who suffered from stroke. For the last few years, eye tracking has been a focus on medical research, used as an assistive tool  to help people with disabilities interact with new technologies  and as an assessment tool  to track the eye gaze during computer interactions. However, tracking more complex gaze behaviors and relating them to motor deficits in people with disabilities is an area that has not been fully explored, therefore it became the focal point of this research. During the research, two exploratory studies were performed in which eye tracking technology was integrated in the context of a newly created virtual reality task to assess the impact of stroke. Using an eye tracking device and a custom virtual task, the system developed is able to monitor the eye gaze pattern changes over time in patients with stroke, as well as allowing their eye gaze to function as an input for the task. Based on neuroscientific hypotheses of upper limb motor control, the studies aimed at verifying the differences in gaze patterns during the observation and execution of the virtual goal-oriented task in stroke patients (N=10), and also to assess normal gaze behavior in healthy participants (N=20). Results were found consistent and supported the hypotheses formulated, showing that eye gaze could be used as a valid assessment tool on these patients. However, the findings of this first exploratory approach are limited in order to fully understand the effect of stroke on eye gaze behavior. Therefore, a novel model-driven paradigm is proposed to further understand the relation between the neuronal mechanisms underlying goal-oriented actions and eye gaze behavior.

Parcerias com a cana-de-açúcar: tensões e contradições no desenvolvimento das experiências de assentamentos rurais em São Paulo

A controversa presença da cana nos assentamentos rurais nos últimos anos exige uma cuidadosa reflexão sobre sua interferência no modo de vida dos assentados e na relação dos assentamentos com a dinâmica do desenvolvimento regional. A presença da cana-de-açúcar nos assentamentos tem causado conflitos internos e debates não consensuais sobre o passado/presente/futuro dessas experiências. A análise da parceria com as agroindústrias é atravessada, do nosso ponto de vista, pela noção de trama de tensões, exigindo que sejam submetidas ao crivo analítico as desigualdades constitutivas desta polêmica integração dos assentados às usinas de açúcar e álcool, assim como as consequências socioeconômicas e ambientais da problemática transformação dos assentamentos rurais em celeiros da cana. No âmbito desse artigo, serão considerados como objetos da investigação os assentamentos das regiões de Araraquara e do Pontal do Paranapanema e analisadas perspectivas de outro modelo de desenvolvimento.