The death of Osama bin Laden - the end of Al-Qaeda's Pan-Islamic ambition?

This paper evaluates the implications of Osama bin Ladin’s death for the future of al-Qaeda’s global jihad. It critically examines the debate as to the make-up of the group and identifies bin Ladin’s primary role as chief ideologue advocating a defensive jihad to liberate the umma. The rationale and appeal of bin Ladin’s message and Muslims’ reaction to both his statements and al-Qaeda’s increasing use of sectarian violence are assessed in the context of Pan-Islam as political ideology. The paper concludes that while the ideal of Islamic unity and the sentiment of Muslim solidarity are unlikely to vanish, al-Qaeda’s violent jihad has not only failed to achieve these goals but has worked against it, thereby confining it to the political margins.

Land, rights and the gift: the Countryside and Rights of Way Act 2000 and the negotiation of citizenship

The Countryside and Rights of Way Act came into force at the end of 2000 with,as part of its content, new provisions relating to public access to the English and Welsh countryside. In this paper we review the main elements of the Act and assess its meaning in relation to citizenship, territoriality and the place of land in English law and society. We invoke Mauss’s (1954)concept of Gift to explain the process of brokerage being made over access and rights in the countryside. In conclusion we reflect on the Act as being indicative of a wider move towards Bromley’s (1998)post-feudal scenario for land and its governance.

Agricultural tenancy reform: the end of law; or a new popular culture?

This paper applies a reading of the postmodernisation of law to the incremental reform of agricultural holdings legislation over the last century. In charting the shifting legal basis of agricultural tenancies, from ‘black letter’ positivism to the cultural contextuality of sumptuary law, the paper theorises that the underlying political imperative has been allied to the changing significance of property ownership and use. Rather than reflecting the long-term official desire to maintain the let sector in British agriculture, however, the paper argues that this process has had other aims. In particular, it has been about an annexation of law to legitimise the retention of landowner power while presenting a rhetorical ‘democratisation’ of farming, away from its plutocratic associations and towards a new narrative of ‘depersonalised’ business.

Urban planning under Major: the end of Thatcherism?

This paper explores the urban planning legacy left by Mrs Thatcher. To what extent has Mr Major continued with her approach? Has he developed new directions? This broad question provides the background for an examination of the changes to the planning system since Mrs Thatcher left office. The main themes covered are the new plan-led emphasis, the increase in the coverage of environmental issues, the question of whether a more people oriented perspective has developed with Major's softer touch and the Citizen's Charter and the property-led approach to urban regeneration. The paper concludes that although the contradictions of Thatcherism have led to the relaxation of certain ideological stances to planning, the central themes of Thatcherism - individualism and centralisation - continue unabated.

Evaluating the legacies of state-building: success, failure, and the role of responsibility

What impact do international state-building missions have on the domestic politics of states they seek to build, and how can we measure this impact with confidence? This article seeks to address these questions and challenge some existing approaches that often appear to assume that state-builders leave lasting legacies rather than demonstrating such influence with the use of carefully chosen empirical evidence. Too often, domestic conditions that follow in the wake of international state-building are assumed to follow as a result of international intervention, usually due to insufficient attention to the causal processes that link international actions to domestic outcomes. The article calls for greater appreciation of the methodological challenges to establishing causal inferences regarding the legacies of state-building and identifies three qualitative methodological strategies—process tracing, counterfactual analysis, and the use of control cases—that can be used to improve confidence in causal claims about state-building legacies. The article concludes with a case study of international state-building in East Timor, highlighting several flaws of existing evaluations of the United Nations' role in East Timor and identifying the critical role that domestic actors play even in the context of authoritative international intervention

British national identity and the dilemmas of multiculturalism

Nationalism and multiculturalism are often perceived as polar opposites with the former viewed as the disease and the latter the cure. Contrary to this view, this article argues that a strong national identity, albeit of a particular kind, is prerequisite to a stable and functioning multicultural society. The article seeks to identify both the causes and the implications of the absence of an overarching, civic national identity in Britain, further to the goal of seeking a meaningful solution. It is our contention that the problem lies in the difficulty involved in reconciling current pressures on British identity with a coherent narrative of British history, especially its imperial past.

The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

Terminal: a miracle play with popular music from the end of the world

Terminal: A Miracle Play with Popular Music from the End of the World is a film and live performance project exploring the politics of post-apocalyptic fiction. A theatrical staging of a morality play for end times and future folk music, it recasts eschatology, as a foundational myth for a future society. Post-apocalyptic writing and cinema are grounded in an ethos of survivalism. Invoking Rousseau’s state of nature, or time before government, these fictions propose violent scenarios in which nuclear holocaust, environmental catastrophe and other disasters generate an individualistic politics of pure pragmatism, negating the possibility of democratic deliberation. Terminal narrates this familiar scenario, but at the same time questions its validity. The film, shot on black and white VHS at Kurt Schwitters’ Merzbarn in Cumbria, dramatises a series of conversations between future-historical archetypes about the needs and pressures of the situation in which they find themselves at the end of the world. The performers then gather to play worshipful songs about acid rain, radiation sickness and eating the dog, using a mix of conventional, obscure and makeshift instruments In the tradition of books such as Russell Hoban’s Riddley Walker and Arthur M. Miller Jr.’s A Canticle for Liebowitz, Terminal imagines artistic expression and new folk traditions for a world to come after the apocalypse. If, as Slavoj Žižek would have it, it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to think of the end of capitalism, the project juxtaposes these two endpoints to test out how alternative scenarios might emerge from the collaborative practice of making theatre and music against a setting of social collapse.

On the seasonal onset of polar mesospheric clouds and the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs), also known as noctilucent clouds, have been observed to be more variable and, in general, dimmer than their Northern Hemisphere (NH) counterparts. The precise cause of these hemispheric differences is not well understood. This paper focuses on one aspect of the hemispheric differences: the timing of the PMC season onset. Observations from the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite indicate that in recent years the date on which the PMC season begins varies much more in the SH than in the NH. Using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, we show that the generation of sufficiently low temperatures necessary for cloud formation in the SH summer polar mesosphere is perturbed by year‐to‐year variations in the timing of the late‐spring breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. These stratospheric variations, which persist until the end of December, influence the propagation of gravity waves up to the mesosphere. This adds a stratospheric control to the temperatures in the polar mesopause region during early summer, which causes the onset of PMCs to vary from one year to another. This effect is much stronger in the SH than in the NH because the breakdown of the polar vortex occurs much later in the SH, closer in time to the PMC season.

Introduction and the problems of weather interpretation

Numerical forecasts of the atmosphere based on the fundamental dynamical and thermodynamical equations have now been carried for almost 30 years. The very first models which were used were drastic simplifications of the governing equations and permitting only the prediction of the geostrophic wind in the middle of the troposphere based on the conservation of absolute vorticity. Since then we have seen a remarkable development in models predicting the large-scale synoptic flow. Verification carried out at NMC Washington indicates an improvement of about 40% in 24h forecasts for the 500mb geopotential since the end of the 1950’s. The most advanced models of today use the equations of motion in their more original form (i.e. primitive equations) which are better suited to predicting the atmosphere at low latitudes as well as small scale systems. The model which we have developed at the Centre, for instance, will be able to predict weather systems from a scale of 500-1000 km and a vertical extension of a few hundred millibars up to global weather systems extending through the whole depth of the atmosphere. With a grid resolution of 1.5 and 15 vertical levels and covering the whole globe it is possible to describe rather accurately the thermodynamical processes associated with cyclone development. It is further possible to incorporate sub-grid-scale processes such as radiation, exchange of sensible heat, release of latent heat etc. in order to predict the development of new weather systems and the decay of old ones. Later in this introduction I will exemplify this by showing some results of forecasts by the Centre’s model.

Physicality, difference, and the challenge of representation: Werner Herzog in the Light of the new waves

This chapter looks into the gap between presentational realism and the representation of physical experience in Werner Herzog's work so as to retrieve the indexical trace – or the absolute materiality of death. To that end, it draws links between Herzog and other directors akin to realism in its various forms, including surrealism. In particular, it focuses on François Truffaut and Glauber Rocha, representing respectively the Nouvelle Vague and the Cinema Novo, whose works had a decisive weight on Herzog’s aesthetic choices to the point of originating distinct phases of his outputs. The analyses, though restricted to a small number of films, intends to re-evaluate Herzog’s position within, and contribution to, film history.

Projection of global wave climate change towards the end of the 21st century

Wind generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model (WAM) is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present day and potential future climate conditions represented by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate towards the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in mid-latitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the mid to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward towards a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.

The end of the opportunism vs trust debate: bounded reliability as a new envelope concept in research on MNE governance

Modern transaction cost economics (TCE) thinking has developed into a key intellectual foundation of international business (IB) research, but the Williamsonian version has faced substantial criticism for adopting the behavioral assumption of opportunism. In this paper we assess both the opportunism concept and existing alternatives such as trust within the context of IB research, especially work on multinational enterprise (MNE) governance. Case analyses of nine global MNEs illustrate an alternative to the opportunism assumption that captures more fully the mechanisms underlying failed commitments inside the MNE. As a substitute for the often-criticized assumption of opportunism, we propose the envelope concept of bounded reliability (BRel), an assumption that represents more accurately and more completely the reasons for failed commitments, without invalidating the other critical assumption in conventional TCE (and internalization theory) thinking, namely the widely accepted envelope concept of bounded rationality (BRat). Bounded reliability as an envelope concept includes two main components, within the context of global MNE management: opportunism as intentional deceit, and benevolent preference reversal. The implications for IB research of adopting the bounded reliability concept are far reaching, as this concept may increase the legitimacy of comparative institutional analysis in the social sciences.

Post-normal science and the art of nature conservation

Nature conservation may be considered a post-normal science in that the loss of biodiversity and increasing environmental degradation require urgent action but are characterised by uncertainty at every level. An ‘extended peer community’ with varying skills, perceptions and values are involved in decision-making and implementation of conservation, and the uncertainty involved limits the effectiveness of practice. In this paper we briefly review the key ecological, philosophical and methodological uncertainties associated with conservation, and then highlight the uncertainties and gaps present within the structure and interactions of the conservation community, and which exist mainly between researchers and practitioners, in the context of nature conservation in the UK. We end by concluding that an openly post-normal science framework for conservation, which acknowledges this uncertainty but strives to minimise it, would be a useful progression for nature conservation, and recommend ways in which knowledge transfer between researchers and practitioners can be improved to support robust decision making and conservation enactment.