The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Calorimetric values of composite solid propellants

The calorimetric values of composite solid propellant based on polystyrene, polyphenolformaldehyde, poly(vinyl chloride) and carboxy-terminated polybutadiene were determined using combustion calorimetry in order to assess the uncertainities in their measurements. The dependence of the calorimetric values on various propellant composition was obtained. The stoichiometry of oxidizer and fuel in the propellant for complete combustion obtained experimentally were compared with the theoretical stoichiometry calculated based on the oxidizer decomposition.

Fishing power and standardised catch rates: Implications of missing vessel-characteristic data from the Australian eastern king prawn fishery

Standardised time series of fishery catch rates require collations of fishing power data on vessel characteristics. Linear mixed models were used to quantify fishing power trends and study the effect of missing data encountered when relying on commercial logbooks. For this, Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) harvests were analysed with historical (from vessel surveys) and current (from commercial logbooks) vessel data. Between 1989 and 2010, fishing power increased up to 76%. To date, both forward-filling and, alternatively, omitting records with missing vessel information from commercial logbooks produce broadly similar fishing power increases and standardised catch rates, due to the strong influence of years with complete vessel data (16 out of 23 years of data). However, if gaps in vessel information had not originated randomly and skippers from the most efficient vessels were the most diligent at filling in logbooks, considerable errors would be introduced. Also, the buffering effect of complete years would be short lived as years with missing data accumulate. Given ongoing changes in fleet profile with high-catching vessels fishing proportionately more of the fleet’s effort, compliance with logbook completion, or alternatively ongoing vessel gear surveys, is required for generating accurate estimates of fishing power and standardised catch rates.

Precise Values of the "C Component Vicinal Coupling Constants for Calculating Side-Chain Conformations in Amino Acids

From consideration of 'H-lH vicinal coupling constants and '"G'H long-range coupling constants in a series of amino acid derivatives, the precise values of uC component vicinal coupling constants have been calculated for the three minimum energy staggered rotamers for the C(or)H-C(P)H, side-chains of amino acids.

New method of calculating calorific values from elemental compositions of fossil fuels

A new method of calculating the calorific values of fossil fuels from their chemical composition has been developed, based on the concept that heats of reaction of stoichiometric fuel-oxidizer systems are rectilinearly related with the total oxidizing or reducing valancies of the mixture. The calorific value of fossil fuels has been shown to be directly related to the net reducing valencies of the fuel. The proposed method is simple and compares favourably with the other prominent methods reported in the literature.

Prediction of breeding values for average fruit weight in mango using a multivariate individual mixed model

Mango is an important horticultural fruit crop and breeding is a key strategy to improve ongoing sustainability. Knowledge of breeding values of potential parents is important for maximising progress from breeding. This study successfully employed a mixed linear model methods incorporating a pedigree to predict breeding values for average fruit weight from highly unbalanced data for genotypes planted over three field trials and assessed over several harvest seasons. Average fruit weight was found to be under strong additive genetic control. There was high correlation between hybrids propagated as seedlings and hybrids propagated as scions grafted onto rootstocks. Estimates of additive genetic correlation among trials ranged from 0.69 to 0.88 with correlations among harvest seasons within trials greater than 0.96. These results suggest that progress from selection for broad adaptation can be achieved, particularly as no repeatable environmental factor that could be used to predict G x E could be identified. Predicted breeding values for 35 known cultivars are presented for use in ongoing breeding programs.

Is Mycoplasma bovis a missing component of the bovine respiratory disease complex in Australia?

Background: Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is a multi-factorial disease in which numerous factors, such as animal management, pathogen exposure and environmental conditions, contribute to the development of acute respiratory illness in feedlot cattle. The role of specific pathogens in the development of BRDC has been difficult to define because of the complex nature of the disease and the presence of implicated bacterial pathogens in the upper respiratory tract of healthy animals. Mycoplasma bovis is an important pathogen of cattle and recognised as a major contributor to cases of mastitis, caseonecrotic bronchopneumonia, arthritis and otitis media. To date, the role of M.bovis in the development of BRDC of Australian feeder cattle has not been investigated. Methods: In this review, the current literature pertaining to the role of M.bovis in BRDC is evaluated. In addition, preliminary data are presented that identify M.bovis as a potential contributor to BRDC in Australian feedlots, which has not been considered previously. Results and Conclusion: The preliminary results demonstrate detection of M.bovis in samples from all feedlots studied. When considered in the context of the reviewed literature, they support the inclusion of M.bovis on the list of pathogens to be considered during investigations into BRDC in Australia. © 2014 Australian Veterinary Association.

Resistance to Fusarium oxysporum f. sp fragariae and Predicted Breeding Values in Strawberry

Fusarium wilt of strawberry, incited by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. fragariae (Fof), is a major disease of the cultivated strawberry (Fragaria xananassa) worldwide. An increase in disease outbreaks of the pathogen in Western Australia and Queensland plus the search for alternative disease management strategies place emphasis on the development of resistant cultivars. In response, a partial incomplete diallel cross involving four parents was performed for use in glasshouse resistance screenings. The resulting progeny were evaluated for their susceptibility to Fof. Best-performing progeny and suitability of progenies as parents were determined using data from disease severity ratings and analyzed using a linear mixed model incorporating a pedigree to produce best linear unbiased predictions of breeding values. Variation in disease response, ranging from highly susceptible to resistant, indicates a quantitative effect. The estimate of the narrow-sense heritability was 0.49 +/- 0.04 (SE), suggesting the population should be responsive to phenotypic recurrent selection. Several progeny genotypes have predicted breeding values higher than any of the parents. Knowledge of Fof resistance derived from this study can help select best parents for future crosses for the development of new strawberry cultivars with Fof resistance.

Samoa’s education policy: Negotiating a hybrid space for values

This paper analyses the education policy of Samoa to examine the values that are presented within as relevant to the education system. Drawing on the theory of postcolonialism and globalization, we illustrate how the global and local interact within the education policy to create a hybrid, heterogeneous mix of values and, while the policy acknowledges the significance of Samoan values, it is principally directed towards universal values being incorporated into the education system. We undertake a critical policy analysis to illustrate how the hybrid set of values are indicative of a neo-colonial discourse and argue that universal values are required, however, these need to be equally matched with local Samoan values for the education policy to be highly relevant, authentic and applicable to the Samoan education context.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

In response: UV–vis light transmittance through tinted contact lenses and the effect of color on values

In the study, we used the Agilent 8453 spectrophotometer (which is equipped with a limiting aperture that restricts the light beam to the central 5 mm of the contact lens), to measure the transmittance of various coloured contact lenses including the one Day Acuvue define manufactured by Johnson and Johnson which the authors represent. We measured the instrument baseline before the transmittance spectra of lenses were tested. The values of lens transmittances were thus the difference between baseline and lens measurement at each time. The transmittance measurements were obtained at 0.5 nm intervals, from 200 to 700 nm after a soak in saline to remove the influence of any surface active agents within the packaging products. The technique used in our study was not very different from how other research studies [2], [3], [4], [5] and [6] have measured the spectra transmittances of contact lenses...

Diagnostic values for skin temperature assessment to detect diabetes-related foot complications

Background Skin temperature assessment is a promising modality for early detection of diabetic foot problems, but its diagnostic value has not been studied. Our aims were to investigate the diagnostic value of different cutoff skin temperature values for detecting diabetes-related foot complications such as ulceration, infection, and Charcot foot and to determine urgency of treatment in case of diagnosed infection or a red-hot swollen foot. Materials and Methods The plantar foot surfaces of 54 patients with diabetes visiting the outpatient foot clinic were imaged with an infrared camera. Nine patients had complications requiring immediate treatment, 25 patients had complications requiring non-immediate treatment, and 20 patients had no complications requiring treatment. Average pixel temperature was calculated for six predefined spots and for the whole foot. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for different cutoff skin temperature values using clinical assessment as reference and defined the sensitivity and specificity for the most optimal cutoff temperature value. Mean temperature difference between feet was analyzed using the Kruskal–Wallis tests. Results The most optimal cutoff skin temperature value for detection of diabetes-related foot complications was a 2.2°C difference between contralateral spots (sensitivity, 76%; specificity, 40%). The most optimal cutoff skin temperature value for determining urgency of treatment was a 1.35°C difference between the mean temperature of the left and right foot (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 78%). Conclusions Detection of diabetes-related foot complications based on local skin temperature assessment is hindered by low diagnostic values. Mean temperature difference between two feet may be an adequate marker for determining urgency of treatment.

Absolute values of instantaneous corrosion rates by faradaic rectification

Doss and Agarwal 1 discovered the "redoxokinetic effect" which is now familiarly known as faradaic rectification. Subsequently, the theory and applications of faradaic rectification due to a single electrode reaction have been developed by several workers 2-5. The theory and application of faradaic rectification in the case of a corrosion cell sustaining mixed electrode reactions on a corroding metal was reported recently 6"7. This led to the development of a new electrochemical method of corrosion rate determination. It was shown that changes in the instantaneous corrosion rates of a metal are readily evaluated by faradaic rectification measurements at the corrosion potential of the metal in a given medium. The aim of the present work is to show that absolute values of instantaneous corrosion rates may also be obtained by the new method under certain conditions. The practical advantages that arise from this development are pointed out.

A Soul for Europe? : Contributions of European Churches to the Forum of the Convention on the Future of Europe

The aim of this research was to study how European churches contributed to the shaping of the Constitutional Treaty during the work of the Convention on the future of Europe through the public discussion forum, established by the Convention for this specific purpose in the years 2002 2003. In particular, this study sought to uncover the areas of interest brought up by the churches in their contributions, the objectives they pursued, and the approaches and arguments they employed to reach those objectives. The data for this study comprised all official submissions by European churches and church alliances to the Forum, totalling 21 contributions. A central criterion for inclusion of the data was that the organization can reasonably be assumed to represent the official position of one or more Christian churches within the European Union before the 2004 expansion. The contributing churches and organizations represent the vast majority of Christians in Europe. The data was analyzed using primarily qualitative content analysis. The research approach was a combination of abductive and inductive inference. Based on the analysis a two-fold theoretical framework was adopted, focusing on theories of public religion, secularization and deprivatization of religion, and of legitimation and collective identity. The main areas of interest found in the contributions of the churches were the value foundation of the European Union, which is demanded to coherently permeate all policies and actions of the EU, and the social dimension of Europe, which must be given equal status to the political and economic dimensions. In both areas the churches claim significant experience and expertise, which they want to see recognized in the Constituional Treaty through a formally guaranteed status for churches and religious communities in the EU. In their contributions the churches show a strong determination to secure a significant role for both religion and religious communities in the public life of Europe. As for the role of religion, they point out to its potential as a motivating and cohesive force in society and as a building block for a collective European identity, which is still missing. Churches also pursue a substantial public role for themselves beyond the spiritual dimension, permeating the secular areas of the social, political and economic dimensions. The arguments in suppport of such role are embedded in their interest and expertise in spiritual and other fundamental values and their broad involvement in providing social services. In this context churches use expressions inclusive of all religions and convictions, albeit clearly advocating the primacy of Europe's Christian heritage. Based on their historical role, their social involvement and their spiritual mission they use the public debate on the Constitutional Treaty to gain formal legitimacy for the public status of religion and religious communities, both nationally and on a European level, through appropriate provisions in the constitutional text. In return they offer the European Union ways of improving its own legitimacy by reducing the democratic and ideological deficit of the EU and advancing the development a collective European identity.

Missing-In-Metastasis (MIM) regulates cell morphology by promoting plasma membrane and actin cytoskeleton dynamics

The cells of multicellular organisms have differentiated to carry out specific functions that are often accompanied by distinct cell morphology. The actin cytoskeleton is one of the key regulators of cell shape subsequently controlling multiple cellular events including cell migration, cell division, endo- and exocytosis. A large set of actin regulating proteins has evolved to achieve and tightly coordinate this wide range of functions. Some actin regulator proteins have so-called house keeping roles and are essential for all eukaryotic cells, but some have evolved to meet the requirements of more specialized cell-types found in higher organisms enabling complex functions of differentiated organs, such as liver, kidney and brain. Often processes mediated by the actin cytoskeleton, like formation of cellular protrusions during cell migration, are intimately linked to plasma membrane remodeling. Thus, a close cooperation between these two cellular compartments is necessary, yet not much is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms. This study focused on a vertebrate-specific protein called missing-in-metastasis (MIM), which was originally characterized as a metastasis suppressor of bladder cancer. We demonstrated that MIM regulates the dynamics of actin cytoskeleton via its WH2 domain, and is expressed in a cell-type specific manner. Interestingly, further examination showed that the IM-domain of MIM displays a novel membrane tubulation activity, which induces formation of filopodia in cells. Following studies demonstrated that this membrane deformation activity is crucial for cell protrusions driven by MIM. In mammals, there are five members of IM-domain protein family. Functions and expression patterns of these family members have remained poorly characterized. To understand the physiological functions of MIM, we generated MIM knockout mice. MIM-deficient mice display no apparent developmental defects, but instead suffer from progressive renal disease and increased susceptibility to tumors. This indicates that MIM plays a role in the maintenance of specific physiological functions associated with distinct cell morphologies. Taken together, these studies implicate MIM both in the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton and the plasma membrane. Our results thus suggest that members of MIM/IRSp53 protein family coordinate the actin cytoskeleton:plasma membrane interface to control cell and tissue morphogenesis in multicellular organisms.