Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Transmission of ocular media in labrid fishes

Wrasses (Labridae) are the second largest family of fishes on the: Great Barrier Reef (after the Gobiidae) and, in terms of morphology and lifestyle, one of the most diverse. They occupy all zones of the reef from the very shadow reef flats to deep slopes, feeding on a variety of fauna. Many wrasses also have elaborately patterned bodies and reflect a range of colours from ultraviolet (UV) to far red. As a first step to investigating the visual system of these fishes we measured the transmission properties of the ocular media of 36 species from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and Hawaii, California and the Florida Keys, USA. Transmission measurements were made of whole eyes with a window cut into the back, and also of isolated lenses and corneas. Based on the transmission properties of the corneas the species could be split into two distinct groups within which the exact wavelength of the cut-off was variable. One group had visibly yellow corneas, while the corneas of the other group appeared clear to human observers. Five species had ocular media that transmitted wavelengths below 400 nm, making a perception of UV wavelengths for those species possible. Possible functional roles for the different filler types are discussed.

Finite element modelling of three-dimensional convection problems in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

We use the finite element method to model three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media when they are heated from below. In particular, we employ the particle-tracking technique to mimic the trajectories of particles in three-dimensional fluid flow problems. The related numerical results demonstrated that: (1) The progressive asymptotic approach procedure, which was previously developed for the finite element modelling of two-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow problems, is equally applicable to the finite element modelling of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below. (2) The perturbation of gravity at different planes has a significant effect on the pattern of three-dimensional convective pore-fluid flow and therefore, may influence the pattern of orebody formation and mineralization in three-dimensional hydrothermal systems. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

Theoretical and numerical analyses of convective instability in porous media with temperature-dependent viscosity

Exact analytical solutions of the critical Rayleigh numbers have been obtained for a hydrothermal system consisting of a horizontal porous layer with temperature-dependent viscosity. The boundary conditions considered are constant temperature and zero vertical Darcy velocity at both the top and bottom of the layer. Not only can the derived analytical solutions be readily used to examine the effect of the temperature-dependent viscosity on the temperature-gradient driven convective flow, but also they can be used to validate the numerical methods such as the finite-element method and finite-difference method for dealing with the same kind of problem. The related analytical and numerical results demonstrated that the temperature-dependent viscosity destabilizes the temperature-gradient driven convective flow and therefore, may affect the ore body formation and mineralization in the upper crust of the Earth. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Towards a History didactics definition

This paper aims to define history didactics along the lines of the current German literature, which conceives it to be closer to history than to education. Associated to the word Geschichtsdidaktik, this definition is opposed to the concepts of history didactics as the art of teaching - Lehrkunst - history or as a collection of methods used both in the teaching of history and in the teaching of other school subjects - Unterrichtsmethoden. In opposition to these two definitions, this paper discusses German, French and Brazilian literatures to propose a conception of history didactics as a subarea of history, once it does not encompass only history teaching, but all history elaborations without a scientific form - nicht- wissenschaftsformigen Geschichtsverarbeitungen.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.