Review of the evidence for a colorectal cancer screening programme in elderly people.

Colorectal cancer is a major public health issue, contributing to 16,000 UK deaths per year, most of these in the elderly population. A new NHS screening programme for colorectal cancer in people over 60 is being introduced across the country throughout 2009. The aim of this research was to review the current literature on colorectal cancer screening and determine how much of the evidence for screening is applicable to elderly people. MEDLINE database was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2007, using search terms of colorectal neoplasms, mass-screening, faecal occult blood, colonoscopy and sigmoidoscopy. Articles for inclusion were limited to those in English and those including older adults. The results showed that evidence for colorectal cancer screening in general has been well researched. However, little was found specifically on screening for elderly people, or looking at the different benefits and limitations in older people compared to younger people. Very few health agencies suggested an upper age limit for screening. In conclusion, there is very little research on screening for colorectal cancer specifically in elderly people, although many health authorities advise such screening. The health needs of an older population are different to those of middle-aged people and at present the screening programmes do not appear to reflect this.

Likelihood-free estimation of model evidence

Statistical methods of inference typically require the likelihood function to be computable in a reasonable amount of time. The class of “likelihood-free” methods termed Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is able to eliminate this requirement, replacing the evaluation of the likelihood with simulation from it. Likelihood-free methods have gained in efficiency and popularity in the past few years, following their integration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in order to better explore the parameter space. They have been applied primarily to estimating the parameters of a given model, but can also be used to compare models. Here we present novel likelihood-free approaches to model comparison, based upon the independent estimation of the evidence of each model under study. Key advantages of these approaches over previous techniques are that they allow the exploitation of MCMC or SMC algorithms for exploring the parameter space, and that they do not require a sampler able to mix between models. We validate the proposed methods using a simple exponential family problem before providing a realistic problem from human population genetics: the comparison of different demographic models based upon genetic data from the Y chromosome.

Toward monitoring the tropospheric temperature by means of a general circulation model

The recent global tropospheric temperature trend can be reproduced by climate models that are forced only by observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. In this study, simulations with the Hamburg climate model (ECHAM) are compared to temperatures from microwave sounding units (MSU) and to reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. There is overall agreement of observed and simulated tropospheric temperature anomalies in many regions, in particular in the tropics and over the oceans, which lack conventional observing systems. This provides the opportunity to link physically different quantities, such as surface observations or analyses (SST) and satellite soundings (MSU) by means of a general circulation model. The proposed method can indicate inconsistencies between MSU temperatures and SSTs and has apparently done so. Differences between observed and simulated tropospheric temperature anomalies can partly be attributed to stratospheric aerosol variations due to major volcanic eruptions.

Premature germination of resting spores as a means of Protecting brassica crops from Plasmodiophora brassicae Wor., (clubroot)

Premature germination of resting spores as a means of protecting brassica crops from Plasmodiphora brassicae Wor., (Clubroot). Crop Protection. Clubroot disease causes substantial yield and quality losses in broadacre oil seed and intensive vegetable brassica crops worldwide. The causal microbe Plasmodiophora brassicae Wor., perennates as soil-borne dormant resting spores. Their germination is triggered by exudates from host roots. A valuable addition to sustainable integrated control strategies could be developed by identifying and synthesising the molecules responsible for stimulating resting spore germination. This paper reports experiments in which stimulatory exudates were collected from brassica roots following exposure to infective stages of P. brassicae. Analyses identified a germination signalling molecule of circa 1 kDa formed of glucose sub-units. Mass spectral analyses showed this to be a complex hexasaccharide carbohydrate with structural similarities to the components of plant cell walls. This is the first report of a host generated hexasaccharide which is capable of stimulating the germination of resting spores of P. brassicae. The implications for environmentally benign control of clubroot are discussed briefly.

Should healthy eating programmes incorporate interaction with foods in different sensory modalities? A review of the evidence

Commercial interventions seeking to promote fruit and vegetable consumption by encouraging preschool- and school-aged children to engage with foods with ‘all their senses’ are increasing in number. We review the efficacy of such sensory interaction programmes and consider the components of these that are likely to encourage food acceptance. Repeated exposure to a food's flavour has robust empirical support in terms of its potential to increase food intake. However, children are naturally reluctant to taste new or disliked foods, and parents often struggle to provide sufficient taste opportunities for these foods to be adopted into the child's diet. We therefore explore whether prior exposure to a new food's non-taste sensory properties, such as its smell, sound, appearance or texture, might facilitate the food's introduction into the child's diet, by providing the child with an opportunity to become partially familiar with the food without invoking the distress associated with tasting it. We review the literature pertaining to the benefits associated with exposure to foods through each of the five sensory modalities in turn. We conclude by calling for further research into the potential for familiarisation with the visual, olfactory, somaesthetic and auditory properties of foods to enhance children's willingness to consume a variety of fruits and vegetables.

The concentration of creditors: evidence from small businesses

This article examines the determinants of concentration of creditors. The empirical evidence drawn from this article supports the proposition of Bolton and Scharfstein (1996) that for negotiation reasons, high-quality borrowers tend to borrow from multiple sources and is contrary to the theoretical prediction of Bris and Welch (2005). This finding implies the existence of hold-up problems in financing small businesses where information conveyance is difficult between lenders. It is further supported by the evidence that dispersed bank relationships are associated with relationships of a longer history and a closer physical distance to lenders.

Evaluation of a polynya flux model by means of thermal infrared satellite estimates

We test the ability of a two-dimensional flux model to simulate polynya events with narrow open-water zones by comparing model results to ice-thickness and ice-production estimates derived from thermal infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations in conjunction with an atmospheric dataset. Given a polynya boundary and an atmospheric dataset, the model correctly reproduces the shape of an 11 day long event, using only a few simple conservation laws. Ice production is slightly overestimated by the model, owing to an underestimated ice thickness. We achieved best model results with the consolidation thickness parameterization developed by Biggs and others (2000). Observed regional discrepancies between model and satellite estimates might be a consequence of the missing representation of the dynamic of the thin-ice thickening (e.g. rafting). We conclude that this simplified polynya model is a valuable tool for studying polynya dynamics and estimating associated fluxes of single polynya events.

The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary

Interplay between the (8)B breakup and other reaction mechanisms by means of CDCC method

We use the continuum discretized coupled channel method to study the effects of breakup on different reaction mechanisms for the (8)B + (58)Ni system. We devote special attention to the role of continuum-continuum couplings.

Indirect study of (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions at astrophysical energies by means of the Trojan Horse Method: recent results

Nuclear (p,alpha) reactions destroying the so-called ""light-elements"" lithium, beryllium and boron have been largely studied in the past mainly because their role in understanding some astrophysical phenomena, i.e. mixing-phenomena occurring in young F-G stars [1]. Such mechanisms transport the surface material down to the region close to the nuclear destruction zone, where typical temperatures of the order of similar to 10(6) K are reached. The corresponding Gamow energy E(0)=1.22 (Z(x)(2)Z(X)(2)T(6)(2))(1/3) [2] is about similar to 10 keV if one considers the ""boron-case"" and replaces in the previous formula Z(x) = 1, Z(X) = 5 and T(6) = 5. Direct measurements of the two (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions in correspondence of this energy region are difficult to perform mainly because the combined effects of Coulomb barrier penetrability and electron screening [3]. The indirect method of the Trojan Horse (THM) [4-6] allows one to extract the two-body reaction cross section of interest for astrophysics without the extrapolation-procedures. Due to the THM formalism, the extracted indirect data have to be normalized to the available direct ones at higher energies thus implying that the method is a complementary tool in solving some still open questions for both nuclear and astrophysical issues [7-12].