Wolf habitat selection at the territory level : seasonal and interannual variation and influence on reproductive success

Habitat selection has been one of the main research topics in ecology for decades. Nevertheless, many aspects of habitat selection still need to be explored. In particular, previous studies have overlooked the importance of temporal variation in habitat selection and the value of including data on reproductive success in order to describe the best quality habitat for a species. We used data collected from radiocollared wolves in Yellowstone National Park (USA), between 1996 and 2008, to describe wolf habitat selection. In particular, we aimed to identify i) seasonal differences in wolf habitat selection, ii) factors influencing interannual variation in habitat selection, and iii) the effect of habitat selection on wolf reproductive success. We used probability density functions to describe wolf habitat use and habitat coverages to represent the habitat available to wolves. We used regression analysis to connect habitat use with habitat characteristics and habitat selection with reproductive success. Our most relevant result was discovering strong interannual variability in wolf habitat selection. This variability was in part explained by pack identity and differences in litter size and leadership of a pack between two years (summer) and in pack size and precipitation (winter). We also detected some seasonal differences. Wolves selected open habitats, intermediate elevations, intermediate distances from roads, and avoided steep slopes in late winter. They selected areas close to roads and avoided steep slopes in summer. In early winter, wolves selected wetlands, herbaceous and shrub vegetation types, and areas at intermediate elevation and distance from roads. Surprisingly, the habitat characteristics selected by wolves were not useful in predicting reproductive success. We hypothesize that interannual variability in wolf habitat selection may be too strong to detect effects on reproductive success. Moreover, prey availability and competitor pressure may also have an influence on wolf reproductive success, which we did not assess. This project demonstrated how important temporal variation is in shaping patterns of habitat selection. We still believe in the value of running long-term studies, but the effect of temporal variation should always be taken into account.

Numerical modeling of the failure mechanisms in Si thin film anode for Li-ion batteries

In recent times, the demand for the storage of electrical energy has grown rapidly for both static applications and the portable electronics enforcing the substantial improvement in battery systems, and Li-ion batteries have been proven to have maximum energy storage density in all rechargeable batteries. However, major breakthroughs are required to consummate the requirement of higher energy density with lower cost to penetrate new markets. Graphite anode having limited capacity has become a bottle neck in the process of developing next generation batteries and can be replaced by higher capacity metals such as Silicon. In the present study we are focusing on the mechanical behavior of the Si-thin film anode under various operating conditions. A numerical model is developed to simulate the intercalation induced stress and the failure mechanism of the complex anode structure. Effect of the various physical phenomena such as diffusion induced stress, plasticity and the crack propagation are investigated to predict better performance parameters for improved design.

Statistics of the received power for free space optical channels

Free space optical (FSO) communication links can experience extreme signal degradation due to atmospheric turbulence induced spatial and temporal irradiance fuctuations (scintillation) in the laser wavefront. In addition, turbulence can cause the laser beam centroid to wander resulting in power fading, and sometimes complete loss of the signal. Spreading of the laser beam and jitter are also artifacts of atmospheric turbulence. To accurately predict the signal fading that occurs in a laser communication system and to get a true picture of how this affects crucial performance parameters like bit error rate (BER) it is important to analyze the probability density function (PDF) of the integrated irradiance fuctuations at the receiver. In addition, it is desirable to find a theoretical distribution that accurately models these ?uctuations under all propagation conditions. The PDF of integrated irradiance fuctuations is calculated from numerical wave-optic simulations of a laser after propagating through atmospheric turbulence to investigate the evolution of the distribution as the aperture diameter is increased. The simulation data distribution is compared to theoretical gamma-gamma and lognormal PDF models under a variety of scintillation regimes from weak to very strong. Our results show that the gamma-gamma PDF provides a good fit to the simulated data distribution for all aperture sizes studied from weak through moderate scintillation. In strong scintillation, the gamma-gamma PDF is a better fit to the distribution for point-like apertures and the lognormal PDF is a better fit for apertures the size of the atmospheric spatial coherence radius ρ0 or larger. In addition, the PDF of received power from a Gaussian laser beam, which has been adaptively compensated at the transmitter before propagation to the receiver of a FSO link in the moderate scintillation regime is investigated. The complexity of the adaptive optics (AO) system is increased in order to investigate the changes in the distribution of the received power and how this affects the BER. For the 10 km link, due to the non-reciprocal nature of the propagation path the optimal beam to transmit is unknown. These results show that a low-order level of complexity in the AO provides a better estimate for the optimal beam to transmit than a higher order for non-reciprocal paths. For the 20 km link distance it was found that, although minimal, all AO complexity levels provided an equivalent improvement in BER and that no AO complexity provided the correction needed for the optimal beam to transmit. Finally, the temporal power spectral density of received power from a FSO communication link is investigated. Simulated and experimental results for the coherence time calculated from the temporal correlation function are presented. Results for both simulation and experimental data show that the coherence time increases as the receiving aperture diameter increases. For finite apertures the coherence time increases as the communication link distance is increased. We conjecture that this is due to the increasing speckle size within the pupil plane of the receiving aperture for an increasing link distance.

A study of acoustic emission technique for concrete damage detection

The Acoustic emission (AE) technique, as one of non-intrusive and nondestructive evaluation techniques, acquires and analyzes the signals emitting from deformation or fracture of materials/structures under service loading. The AE technique has been successfully applied in damage detection in various materials such as metal, alloy, concrete, polymers and other composite materials. In this study, the AE technique was used for detecting crack behavior within concrete specimens under mechanical and environmental frost loadings. The instrumentations of the AE system used in this study include a low-frequency AE sensor, a computer-based data acquisition device and a preamplifier linking the AE sensor and the data acquisition device. The AE system purchased from Mistras Group was used in this study. The AE technique was applied to detect damage with the following laboratory tests: the pencil lead test, the mechanical three-point single-edge notched beam bending (SEB) test, and the freeze-thaw damage test. Firstly, the pencil lead test was conducted to verify the attenuation phenomenon of AE signals through concrete materials. The value of attenuation was also quantified. Also, the obtained signals indicated that this AE system was properly setup to detect damage in concrete. Secondly, the SEB test with lab-prepared concrete beam was conducted by employing Mechanical Testing System (MTS) and AE system. The cumulative AE events and the measured loading curves, which both used the crack-tip open displacement (CTOD) as the horizontal coordinate, were plotted. It was found that the detected AE events were qualitatively correlated with the global force-displacement behavior of the specimen. The Weibull distribution was vii proposed to quantitatively describe the rupture probability density function. The linear regression analysis was conducted to calibrate the Weibull distribution parameters with detected AE signals and to predict the rupture probability as a function of CTOD for the specimen. Finally, the controlled concrete freeze-thaw cyclic tests were designed and the AE technique was planned to investigate the internal frost damage process of concrete specimens.

Hard thermal loop benchmark for the extraction of the nonperturbative QQ[over ¯] potential

The extraction of the finite temperature heavy quark potential from lattice QCD relies on a spectral analysis of the Wilson loop. General arguments tell us that the lowest lying spectral peak encodes, through its position and shape, the real and imaginary parts of this complex potential. Here we benchmark this extraction strategy using leading order hard-thermal loop (HTL) calculations. In other words, we analytically calculate the Wilson loop and determine the corresponding spectrum. By fitting its lowest lying peak we obtain the real and imaginary parts and confirm that the knowledge of the lowest peak alone is sufficient for obtaining the potential. Access to the full spectrum allows an investigation of spectral features that do not contribute to the potential but can pose a challenge to numerical attempts of an analytic continuation from imaginary time data. Differences in these contributions between the Wilson loop and gauge fixed Wilson line correlators are discussed. To better understand the difficulties in a numerical extraction we deploy the maximum entropy method with extended search space to HTL correlators in Euclidean time and observe how well the known spectral function and values for the real and imaginary parts are reproduced. Possible venues for improvement of the extraction strategy are discussed.

3G network traffic sources measurement and analysis

In this paper, we show statistical analyses of several types of traffic sources in a 3G network, namely voice, video and data sources. For each traffic source type, measurements were collected in order to, on the one hand, gain better understanding of the statistical characteristics of the sources and, on the other hand, enable forecasting traffic behaviour in the network. The latter can be used to estimate service times and quality of service parameters. The probability density function, mean, variance, mean square deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the interarrival times are estimated by Wolfram Mathematica and Crystal Ball statistical tools. Based on evaluation of packet interarrival times, we show how the gamma distribution can be used in network simulations and in evaluation of available capacity in opportunistic systems. As a result, from our analyses, shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution are generated. Data can be applied also in dynamic network configuration in order to avoid potential network congestions or overflows. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.

A new Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions

We present a novel approach for the reconstruction of spectra from Euclidean correlator data that makes close contact to modern Bayesian concepts. It is based upon an axiomatically justified dimensionless prior distribution, which in the case of constant prior function m(ω) only imprints smoothness on the reconstructed spectrum. In addition we are able to analytically integrate out the only relevant overall hyper-parameter α in the prior, removing the necessity for Gaussian approximations found e.g. in the Maximum Entropy Method. Using a quasi-Newton minimizer and high-precision arithmetic, we are then able to find the unique global extremum of P[ρ|D] in the full Nω » Nτ dimensional search space. The method actually yields gradually improving reconstruction results if the quality of the supplied input data increases, without introducing artificial peak structures, often encountered in the MEM. To support these statements we present mock data analyses for the case of zero width delta peaks and more realistic scenarios, based on the perturbative Euclidean Wilson Loop as well as the Wilson Line correlator in Coulomb gauge.

Shallow Dialogue Processing Using Machine Learning Algorithms (or not)

This paper presents a shallow dialogue analysis model, aimed at human-human dialogues in the context of staff or business meetings. Four components of the model are defined, and several machine learning techniques are used to extract features from dialogue transcripts: maximum entropy classifiers for dialogue acts, latent semantic analysis for topic segmentation, or decision tree classifiers for discourse markers. A rule-based approach is proposed for solving cross-modal references to meeting documents. The methods are trained and evaluated thanks to a common data set and annotation format. The integration of the components into an automated shallow dialogue parser opens the way to multimodal meeting processing and retrieval applications.

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga) in the Weddell Sea during DRE1998 campaign

The crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga) is the most abundant Antarctic seal and inhabits the circumpolar pack ice zone of the Southern Ocean. Until now, information on important environmental factors affecting its distribution as well as on foraging behaviour is limited. In austral summer 1998, 12 crabeater seals of both sexes and different age classes were equipped with satellitelinked dive recorders at Drescher Inlet (72.85°S, 19.26°E), eastern Weddell Sea. To identify suitable habitat conditions within the Weddell Sea, a maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach was implemented. The model revealed that the eastern and southern Weddell Sea is especially suitable for crabeater seals. Distance to the continental shelf break and sea ice concentration were the two most important parameters in modelling species distribution throughout the study period. Model predictions demonstrated that crabeater seals showed a dynamic response to their seasonally changing environment emphasized by the favoured sea ice conditions. Crabeater seals utilized ice-free waters substantially, which is potentially explained by the comparatively low sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea during summer 1998. Diving behaviour was characterized by short (>90 % = 0-4 min) and shallow (>90 % = 0-51 m) dives. This pattern reflects the typical summer and autumn foraging behaviour of crabeater seals. Both the distribution and foraging behaviour corresponded well with the life history of the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), the preferred prey of crabeater seals. In general, predicted suitable habitat conditions were congruent with probable habitats of krill, which emphasizes the strong dependence on their primary prey.

Maps of subsoil temperature and active layer depth of Yakutian ASSR (Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of the Soviet Union)

Based on the map of landscapes and permafrost conditions in Yakutia (Merzlotno-landshaftnaya karta Yakutskoi0 ASSR, Gosgeodeziya SSSR, 1991), rasterized maps of permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia, East Siberia were derived. The mean and standard deviation at 0.5-degree grid cell size are estimated by assigning a probability density function at 0.001-degree spatial resolution. Spatial pattern of both variables are dominated by a climatic gradient from north to south, and by mountains and the soil type distribution. Uncertainties are highest in mountains and in the sporadic permafrost zone in the south. The maps are best suited as a benchmark for land surface models which include a permafrost module.

Eemian temperature reconstruction for European sites

Botanical data are widely used as terrestrial proxy data for climate reconstructions. Using a newly established method based on probability density functions (pdf-method), the temperature development throughout the last interglacial, the Eemian, is reconstructed for the two German sites Bispingen and Grobern and the French site La Grande Pile. The results are compared with previous reconstructions using other methods. After a steep increase in January as well as July temperatures in the early phase of the interglacial, the reconstructed most probable climate appears to be slightly warmer than today. While the temperature is reconstructed as relatively stable throughout the Eemian, a certain tendency towards cooler January temperatures is evident. January temperatures decreased from approx. 2-3° C in the early part to approx. -3° C in the later part at Bispingen, and from approx. 2° C to approx. -1° C at Grobern and La Grande Pile. A major drop to about -8° C marks the very end of the interglacial at all three sites. While these results agree well with other proxy data and former reconstructions based on the indicator species method, the results differ significantly from reconstructions based on the modern pollen analogue technique ("pollen transfer functions"). The lack of modern analogues is assumed to be the main reason for the discrepancies. It is concluded that any reconstruction method needs to be evaluated carefully in this respect if used for periods lacking modern analogous plant communities.

Nonparametric Message Passing Methods for Cooperative Localization and Tracking

The objective of this thesis is the development of cooperative localization and tracking algorithms using nonparametric message passing techniques. In contrast to the most well-known techniques, the goal is to estimate the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the position of each sensor. This problem can be solved using Bayesian approach, but it is intractable in general case. Nevertheless, the particle-based approximation (via nonparametric representation), and an appropriate factorization of the joint PDFs (using message passing methods), make Bayesian approach acceptable for inference in sensor networks. The well-known method for this problem, nonparametric belief propagation (NBP), can lead to inaccurate beliefs and possible non-convergence in loopy networks. Therefore, we propose four novel algorithms which alleviate these problems: nonparametric generalized belief propagation (NGBP) based on junction tree (NGBP-JT), NGBP based on pseudo-junction tree (NGBP-PJT), NBP based on spanning trees (NBP-ST), and uniformly-reweighted NBP (URW-NBP). We also extend NBP for cooperative localization in mobile networks. In contrast to the previous methods, we use an optional smoothing, provide a novel communication protocol, and increase the efficiency of the sampling techniques. Moreover, we propose novel algorithms for distributed tracking, in which the goal is to track the passive object which cannot locate itself. In particular, we develop distributed particle filtering (DPF) based on three asynchronous belief consensus (BC) algorithms: standard belief consensus (SBC), broadcast gossip (BG), and belief propagation (BP). Finally, the last part of this thesis includes the experimental analysis of some of the proposed algorithms, in which we found that the results based on real measurements are very similar with the results based on theoretical models.