Stationary absolute distributions for chains of infinite order

Let {Ƶ_n}^∞_{n = -∞} be a stochastic process with state space S₁ = {0, 1, …, D – 1}. Such a process is called a chain of infinite order. The transitions of the chain are described by the functions

Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) = Ƥ(Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1} = i ⁽⁰⁾₁, Ƶ_{n - 2} = i ⁽⁰⁾₂, …) (i ɛ S₁), where i⁽⁰⁾ = (i⁽⁰⁾₁, i⁽⁰⁾₂, …) ranges over infinite sequences from S₁. If i⁽ⁿ⁾ = (i⁽ⁿ⁾₁, i⁽ⁿ⁾₂, …) for n = 1, 2,…, then i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾ means that for each k, i⁽ⁿ⁾_k = i⁽⁰⁾_k for all n sufficiently large.

Given functions Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) such that

(i) 0 ≤ Q_i(i⁽⁰) ≤ ξ ˂ 1

(ii)D – 1/Ʃ/i = 0 Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) Ξ 1

(iii) Q_i(i⁽ⁿ⁾) → Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) whenever i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾,

we prove the existence of a stationary chain of infinite order {Ƶ_n} whose transitions are given by

Ƥ (Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …) = Q_i(Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …)

With probability 1. The method also yields stationary chains {Ƶ_n} for which (iii) does not hold but whose transition probabilities are, in a sense, “locally Markovian.” These and similar results extend a paper by T.E. Harris [Pac. J. Math., 5 (1955), 707-724].

Included is a new proof of the existence and uniqueness of a stationary absolute distribution for an Nth order Markov chain in which all transitions are possible. This proof allows us to achieve our main results without the use of limit theorem techniques.

Identificação de danos estruturais via método de Monte Carlo com cadeias de Markov

O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo referente à aplicação da abordagem Bayesiana como técnica de solução do problema inverso de identificação de danos estruturais, onde a integridade da estrutura é continuamente descrita por um parâmetro estrutural denominado parâmetro de coesão. A estrutura escolhida para análise é uma viga simplesmente apoiada do tipo Euler-Bernoulli. A identificação de danos é baseada em alterações na resposta impulsiva da estrutura, provocadas pela presença dos mesmos. O problema direto é resolvido através do Método de Elementos Finitos (MEF), que, por sua vez, é parametrizado pelo parâmetro de coesão da estrutura. O problema de identificação de danos é formulado como um problema inverso, cuja solução, do ponto de vista Bayesiano, é uma distribuição de probabilidade a posteriori para cada parâmetro de coesão da estrutura, obtida utilizando-se a metodologia de amostragem de Monte Carlo com Cadeia de Markov. As incertezas inerentes aos dados medidos serão contempladas na função de verossimilhança. Três estratégias de solução são apresentadas. Na Estratégia 1, os parâmetros de coesão da estrutura são amostrados de funções densidade de probabilidade a posteriori que possuem o mesmo desvio padrão. Na Estratégia 2, após uma análise prévia do processo de identificação de danos, determina-se regiões da viga potencialmente danificadas e os parâmetros de coesão associados à essas regiões são amostrados a partir de funções de densidade de probabilidade a posteriori que possuem desvios diferenciados. Na Estratégia 3, após uma análise prévia do processo de identificação de danos, apenas os parâmetros associados às regiões identificadas como potencialmente danificadas são atualizados. Um conjunto de resultados numéricos é apresentado levando-se em consideração diferentes níveis de ruído para as três estratégias de solução apresentadas.

Multiple object tracking using evolutionary MCMC-based particle algorithms

Algorithms are presented for detection and tracking of multiple clusters of co-ordinated targets. Based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling mechanization, the new algorithms maintain a discrete approximation of the filtering density of the clusters' state. The filters' tracking efficiency is enhanced by incorporating various sampling improvement strategies into the basic Metropolis-Hastings scheme. Thus, an evolutionary stage consisting of two primary steps is introduced: 1) producing a population of different chain realizations, and 2) exchanging genetic material between samples in this population. The performance of the resulting evolutionary filtering algorithms is demonstrated in two different settings. In the first, both group and target properties are estimated whereas in the second, which consists of a very large number of targets, only the clustering structure is maintained. © 2009 IFAC.

Key considerations for a regional SocMon strategy for the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem countries in South Asia

Socio-economic Monitoring (SocMon) is an approach and set of tools for conducting socio-economic monitoring of changes in coastal communities. Key considerations included: importance of local partnerships; government and civil society partnerships; emphasis of adapting SocMon to local needs and priorities; capacity building; engaging with local stakeholders; inter and intra-regional collaboration; importance of language; and importance of language.

A Newton algorithm for invariant subspace computation with large basins of attraction

We study the global behaviour of a Newton algorithm on the Grassmann manifold for invariant subspace computation. It is shown that the basins of attraction of the invariant subspaces may collapse in case of small eigenvalue gaps. A Levenberg-Marquardt-like modification of the algorithm with low numerical cost is proposed. A simple strategy for choosing the parameter is shown to dramatically enlarge the basins of attraction of the invariant subspaces while preserving the fast local convergence.

A novel strategy to construct a flat-lying DNA monolayer on a mica surface

Flat-lying, densely packed DNA monolayers in which DNA chains are well organized have been successfully constructed on a mica surface by dropping a droplet of a DNA solution on a freshly cleaved mica surface and subsequently transferring the mica to ultrapure water for developing. The formation kinetics of such monolayers was studied by tapping mode atomic force microscopy (TMAFM) technique. A series of TMAFM images of DNA films obtained at various developing times show that before the sample was immersed into water for developing the DNA chains always seriously aggregated by contacting, crossing, or overlapping and formed large-scale networks on the mica surface. During developing, the fibers of DNA networks gradually dispersed into many smaller fibers up to single DNA chains. At the same time, the fibers or DNA chains also experienced rearrangement to decrease electrostatic repulsion and interfacial Gibbs free energy. Finally, a flat-lying, densely packed DNA monolayer was formed. A formation mechanism of the DNA monolayers was proposed that consists of aggregation, dispersion, and rearrangement. The effects of both DNA and Mg2+ concentration in the formation solution on DNA monolayer formation were also investigated in detail.

Numerical and experimental studies of a substructural identification strategy

For structural health monitoring it is impractical to identify a large structure with complete measurement due to limited number of sensors and difficulty in field instrumentation. Furthermore, it is not desirable to identify a large number of unknown parameters in a full system because of numerical difficulty in convergence. A novel substructural strategy was presented for identification of stiffness matrices and damage assessment with incomplete measurement. The substructural approach was employed to identify large systems in a divide-and-conquer manner. In addition, the concept of model condensation was invoked to avoid the need for complete measurement, and the recovery process to obtain the full set of parameters was formulated. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated numerically through multi-storey shear buildings subjected to random force. A fairly large structural system with 50 DOFs was identified with good results, taking into consideration the effects of noisy signals and the limited number of sensors. Two variations of the method were applied, depending on whether the sensor could be repositioned. The proposed strategy was further substantiated experimentally using an eight-storey steel plane frame model subjected to shaker and impulse hammer excitations. Both numerical and experimental results have shown that the proposed substructural strategy gave reasonably accurate identification in terms of locating and quantifying structural damage.

The evolution of authoritarian processes: Fostering cooperation in large-scale groups

Authoritarianism, comprising conventionalism, authoritarian submission, and authoritarian aggression, is an important factor underlying prejudice and social discrimination and therefore is typically perceived as socially problematic. In contrast, our work examines adaptive features of authoritarianism. Evolutionary game theoretical considerations (e.g., biased social learning) point to authoritarian psychological processes that establish and foster group life (e.g., high levels of ingroup cooperation). First, the evolution of social learning (particularly conformist and prestige biases) leads to the establishment of local and distinct cultural groups (conventionalism). Second, local cultural rules solve coordination dilemmas by transforming these rules into normative standards against which others are evaluated (authoritarian submission). Third, the common rules within a particular culture or group are reinforced by a tendency to reward norm compliance and punish norm deviations (authoritarian aggression). Implications regarding the deduction of novel research questions as well as dealing with authoritarianism as a social problem are discussed.

A design strategy of large grain lithium-rich layered oxides for lithium-ion batteries cathode

Li-rich materials are considered the most promising for Li-ion battery cathodes, as high capacity can be achieved. However, poor cycling stability is a critical drawback that leads to poor capacity retention. Here a strategy is used to synthesize a large-grain lithium-rich layered oxides to overcome this difficulty without sacrificing rate capability. This material is designed with micron scale grain with a width of about 300 nm and length of 1-3 μm. This unique structure has a better ability to overcome stress-induced structural collapse caused by Li-ion insertion/extraction and reduce the dissolution of Mn ions, which enable a reversible and stable capacity. As a result, this cathode material delivered a highest discharge capacity of around 308 mAh g^-1 at a current density of 30 mA g^-1 with retention of 88.3% (according to the highest discharge capacity) after 100 cycles, 190 mAh g^-1 at a current density of 300 mA g^-1 and almost no capacity fading after 100 cycles. Therefore, Lithium-rich material of large-grain structure is a promising cathode candidate in Lithium-ion batteries with high capacity and high cycle stability for application. This strategy of large grain may furthermore open the door to synthesize the other complex architectures for various applications.

Feature Selection and Classification Using Age Layered Population Structure Genetic Programming

The curse of dimensionality is a major problem in the fields of machine learning, data mining and knowledge discovery. Exhaustive search for the most optimal subset of relevant features from a high dimensional dataset is NP hard. Sub–optimal population based stochastic algorithms such as GP and GA are good choices for searching through large search spaces, and are usually more feasible than exhaustive and deterministic search algorithms. On the other hand, population based stochastic algorithms often suffer from premature convergence on mediocre sub–optimal solutions. The Age Layered Population Structure (ALPS) is a novel metaheuristic for overcoming the problem of premature convergence in evolutionary algorithms, and for improving search in the fitness landscape. The ALPS paradigm uses an age–measure to control breeding and competition between individuals in the population. This thesis uses a modification of the ALPS GP strategy called Feature Selection ALPS (FSALPS) for feature subset selection and classification of varied supervised learning tasks. FSALPS uses a novel frequency count system to rank features in the GP population based on evolved feature frequencies. The ranked features are translated into probabilities, which are used to control evolutionary processes such as terminal–symbol selection for the construction of GP trees/sub-trees. The FSALPS metaheuristic continuously refines the feature subset selection process whiles simultaneously evolving efficient classifiers through a non–converging evolutionary process that favors selection of features with high discrimination of class labels. We investigated and compared the performance of canonical GP, ALPS and FSALPS on high–dimensional benchmark classification datasets, including a hyperspectral image. Using Tukey’s HSD ANOVA test at a 95% confidence interval, ALPS and FSALPS dominated canonical GP in evolving smaller but efficient trees with less bloat expressions. FSALPS significantly outperformed canonical GP and ALPS and some reported feature selection strategies in related literature on dimensionality reduction.

Feature Selection and Classification Using Age Layered Population Structure Genetic Programming

The curse of dimensionality is a major problem in the fields of machine learning, data mining and knowledge discovery. Exhaustive search for the most optimal subset of relevant features from a high dimensional dataset is NP hard. Sub–optimal population based stochastic algorithms such as GP and GA are good choices for searching through large search spaces, and are usually more feasible than exhaustive and determinis- tic search algorithms. On the other hand, population based stochastic algorithms often suffer from premature convergence on mediocre sub–optimal solutions. The Age Layered Population Structure (ALPS) is a novel meta–heuristic for overcoming the problem of premature convergence in evolutionary algorithms, and for improving search in the fitness landscape. The ALPS paradigm uses an age–measure to control breeding and competition between individuals in the population. This thesis uses a modification of the ALPS GP strategy called Feature Selection ALPS (FSALPS) for feature subset selection and classification of varied supervised learning tasks. FSALPS uses a novel frequency count system to rank features in the GP population based on evolved feature frequencies. The ranked features are translated into probabilities, which are used to control evolutionary processes such as terminal–symbol selection for the construction of GP trees/sub-trees. The FSALPS meta–heuristic continuously refines the feature subset selection process whiles simultaneously evolving efficient classifiers through a non–converging evolutionary process that favors selection of features with high discrimination of class labels. We investigated and compared the performance of canonical GP, ALPS and FSALPS on high–dimensional benchmark classification datasets, including a hyperspectral image. Using Tukey’s HSD ANOVA test at a 95% confidence interval, ALPS and FSALPS dominated canonical GP in evolving smaller but efficient trees with less bloat expressions. FSALPS significantly outperformed canonical GP and ALPS and some reported feature selection strategies in related literature on dimensionality reduction.

Efficient estimation using the characteristic function : theory and applications with high frequency data

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Évolution moléculaire : un modèle Markov-modulé pour les processus de substitution

Les processus Markoviens continus en temps sont largement utilisés pour tenter d’expliquer l’évolution des séquences protéiques et nucléotidiques le long des phylogénies. Des modèles probabilistes reposant sur de telles hypothèses sont conçus pour satisfaire la non-homogénéité spatiale des contraintes fonctionnelles et environnementales agissant sur celles-ci. Récemment, des modèles Markov-modulés ont été introduits pour décrire les changements temporels dans les taux d’évolution site-spécifiques (hétérotachie). Des études ont d’autre part démontré que non seulement la force mais également la nature de la contrainte sélective agissant sur un site peut varier à travers le temps. Ici nous proposons de prendre en charge cette réalité évolutive avec un modèle Markov-modulé pour les protéines sous lequel les sites sont autorisés à modifier leurs préférences en acides aminés au cours du temps. L’estimation a posteriori des différents paramètres modulants du noyau stochastique avec les méthodes de Monte Carlo est un défi de taille que nous avons su relever partiellement grâce à la programmation parallèle. Des réglages computationnels sont par ailleurs envisagés pour accélérer la convergence vers l’optimum global de ce paysage multidimensionnel relativement complexe. Qualitativement, notre modèle semble être capable de saisir des signaux d’hétérogénéité temporelle à partir d’un jeu de données dont l’histoire évolutive est reconnue pour être riche en changements de régimes substitutionnels. Des tests de performance suggèrent de plus qu’il serait mieux ajusté aux données qu’un modèle équivalent homogène en temps. Néanmoins, les histoires substitutionnelles tirées de la distribution postérieure sont bruitées et restent difficilement interprétables du point de vue biologique.